NHL free agency: 10 lessons we learned from a wild first day

The initial wave of the annual free agent frenzy has slowed down, so let’s take a breath and ask the big question: Class, what have we learned today?

The NHL delivered on the promise of a busy market, with names flying off the board all day long. There was plenty of movement of unrestricted free agents, several big extensions, and even a handful of trades. Let’s recap the day with ten lessons we can pull from a frantic day. That won’t be enough to cover each and every signing or even every team, but we’ll try to hit on as many as we can. And we’ll do it quickly, before something else happens and renders all of this irrelevant.

Lesson: Being heartless is the new market inefficiency

We’ve known this for a few years now – some teams still value loyalty, while others will do absolutely anything to improve, even at the expense of fan favorites and franchise icons. The latter approach seems to be the one that works, even if it can take its toll on a fan base.

But today… yikes. Jonathan Marchessault not being in Vegas feels wrong. Steven Stamkos not being in Tampa feels worse. Both players leaving on the same day – and essentially admitting that it was the teams’ call and not theirs – is enough to make even the most hardened cynic need a moment.

In the case of Stamkos, at least the Lightning had a Plan B, which sure looks like it was actually Plan A all along. After clearing money at the draft, they spent it on Jake Guentzel, a player who’s younger and (probably) better than Stamkos is today. On that level, it makes sense. And apparently that’s the only level that matters for Lightning GM Julien BriseBois, who watched the captain who lifted two Stanley Cups for his franchise walk out the door and shrugged.

Vegas, on the other hand, has yet to add any big names. Big underline on “yet” because you absolutely know that GM Kelly McCrimmon is not going to let this stand. What, do you think he let Marchessault walk just because? (Thinks a bit.) Well, yeah actually, he might have done that because it’s the Vegas way. But it’s far more likely that he has something big in mind. The question is whether that plan was somebody like Stamkos or Guentzel, or someone else who’s still available, presumably via trade. Either way, the Knights aren’t going to stand pat.

And yes, speaking of Stamkos and Marchessault…

Lesson: The Predators are back, baby

It wasn’t that long ago that the Predators had a trip to the final followed by a Presidents’ Trophy. But in recent years, they’ve kind of just been there, as other Central teams moved aggressively to the extreme ends of the standings. Even as they were making the playoffs, it was easy enough to dismiss them as legitimate contenders.

Not anymore. By landing Stamkos and Marchessault, not to mention signing Brady Skjei today and extending Jusse Saros a few days ago, the Predators are making it clear that they expect to be right in the mix for the Central and beyond. And in the big picture, that’s good news. The NHL is a better place when the Predators are good, just because the city and fan base make things so much fun. And let’s give some credit to Barry Trotz, who’s already made more big, bold decisions in one year on the job than a lot of his colleagues ever have.

Lesson: As always, term is what matters

Whenever a new deal gets signed, hockey fans want to know the AAV. That’s important, but for a lot of contracts, it’s not the most important number. Once a player gets out of their mid-20s, it’s the term that often matters most.

In related news, NHL teams don’t seem to have any issue giving out big-time term to guys who are really old.

Chris Tanev was the obvious example this year, getting a six-year deal that will take him into his 40s, an age that virtually nobody plays at these days. But Chandler Stephenson and Skjei both got seven years despite being 30. Elias Lindholm and Matt Roy are both 29. Jacob Slavin’s extension in Carolina takes him to 39, and Marchessault’s deal goes to 38.

Risky? Absolutely. But it makes sense. Somebody else had dibs on the winners/losers format today, but let’s steal it for a moment to analyze what happens when a big-name veteran UFA gets too much term:

Winner: The player, who gets extra security

Winner: The team’s fans, who want to land a new player.

Winner: The current GM, who gets a guy without moving assets.

Loser: The next GM, who has to deal with a bad contract in a few years.

And if the current GM actually is the next GM, well, that probably means the team has been winning, so it all worked out. The GM can’t lose. The team can, and often does, but that’s somebody else’s problem.

Lesson: Timing matters on the trade market

There was only one major trade made Monday, the one where the Senators sent Jakob Chychrun to Washington for… well, not much. Not much at all. And Senators fans don’t seem happy about it.

On one level, that’s not fair to new GM Steve Staios. Everyone knew that Chychrun was on the block, so if this was the best he could do, that’s that. Besides, Chychrun was a Pierre Dorion addition, so he’s a sunk cost as far as Staios is concerned. He got a pick and a right-handed defenseman, and we all move on. Except that if you’re a Senators fan, that’s not easy to do when you’ve been waiting for the team to pull the trigger on this move for at least a year now, only to be underwhelmed, to put it mildly. And some of that is the timing.

It sometimes feels like the cycle of life for NHL GMs. We can’t move this guy during the season because it’s too complicated, but we’ll do it at the draft. We can’t move this guy at the draft because everyone’s waiting to see what’s available in free agency, but we’ll do it once players start coming off the board on UFA day. We can’t move him after free agency because nobody has cap space now, but something will shake free once camps start. We can’t move him at camp because everyone else is healthy and likes their team, but just you wait until we get into the season…

And around and around we go. The Senators probably benefited from a similar dynamic just a week ago, making a great deal for Linus Ullmark after the Bruins watched the market dry up. Now it bites Ottawa on what was supposed to be their biggest trade chip.

Will other GMs learn a lesson from this cautionary tale? Probably not, because their jobs are really hard, you guys.

Lesson: New York was apparently closed today

The Islanders got Anthony Duclair on a four-year deal, which might be the shortest contract they have on the books next year. That’s not a major move, but it’s something. And “something” was apparently where the bar was set for the league’s three New York teams.

The Rangers, despite being linked to plenty of big names, were limited to signing depth forward Sam Carrick and trading for Reilly Smith. That barely moves the needle, and we’re still waiting on a Jacob Trouba trade. At this point, you wonder if they eventually deal Trouba to clear up space, then don’t have anyone to spend it on.

As for Kevyn Adams and the Sabres, they at least made a few signings. But when Jason Zucker is the big name, you have to wonder if they’re even any better once you factor in the Jeff Skinner buyout. Plenty of Sabres fans are losing patience with Adams, and so far anyone counting on the other shoe to drop is still waiting.

Lesson: Western Canada wasn’t much better

The Jets didn’t land much, aside from an extended segment on TSN about possibly being the most disappointing team of the day. We all know the deal in Winnipeg, which is rarely going to be near the top of a UFA’s wish list. You could say that’s not fair, but it’s reality. Still, you’d like to see a team that was considered a contender last year add more than an extra goalie in Eric Comrie.

The Oilers certainly are a contender, which comes with a tight cap that kept them bidding on any of the top targets. Viktor Arvidsson was the big add, and it feels like a good fit, and they kept Corey Perry. But no word on Adam Henrique yet, and Chandler Stephenson turned out to be a pipe dream, and it doesn’t sound like there was any movement on the crucial Leon Draisaitl extension. Meanwhile, the Flames continue to rebuild without rebuilding, with Anthony Mantha and Ryan Lomberg seeming like guys who could potentially be moved at the deadline if a contender comes asking.

And then there’s the Canucks, the only team of the four that made a legitimately major move. That was Jake DeBrusk, who gets $38.5 million on a seven-year deal. That’s a big swing on a guy coming off a 19-goal season, although he’s always been a player who showed enough flashes that you wondered who he might look in an elevated role. The Canucks will have plenty of incentive to find out now.

The Panthers signed a 57-goal scorer and Stanley Cup champion for $8.625 million a year. (Sam Navarro / USA Today)

Lesson: The Atlantic is going to be brutal

The Panthers kept their most important UFA, and did it at a discount that leaves them with plenty of room to keep a championship core together. The Lightning got Guentzel, arguably the best player to change teams. The Bruins loaded up, landing Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov. The Leafs probably lost ground, but at least seemed to get the guys they were targeting.

That’s the big four that have dominated the division for years. Meanwhile, the division’s rebuilding teams are gunning for a playoff spot that may not be there. The Senators finally have a real goalie. The Red Wings hope they do too, and they kept Patrick Kane. Montreal isn’t quite there yet, but the fact that they were linked to at least a few big names suggests that they might think they’re getting close, and they locked up Juraj Slafkovsky to a deal that might look great in a year or two.

Also, the Sabres got worse, so… I’m sure it will be fine.

Lesson: It’s possible that teams aren’t honoring the whole “wait until noon” thing

I would never accuse NHL GMs of tampering because these are stand-up guys and tampering would be wrong.

But it was fascinating to see TSN’s count of the first-hour carnage: 64 signings for a total of $745.8 million. That’s a lot of money for contracts that teams could only start discussing at noon, right? I don’t know, I guess the only explanation is that the same group of GMs that need three months to crack the code on trading a second-line winger during the season suddenly get really efficient on July 1. It’s the only possibility, really.

Lesson: Seattle seems tired of being an afterthought

Here’s a weird realization I had: In terms of the new teams of the cap era, the Kraken are no longer the new kids on the block. That would be Utah, which the NHL is technically considering a brand new team and not an extension of the Coyotes history.

So if Vegas is the accomplished old sibling that everyone wants to be like, and Utah is the incorrigible youngster doing it its own way, that would make the Kraken the middle child of the group. And in a classic case of mild child syndrome, they decided to act out to make sure we all remembered they existed.

Seven years each to Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour are both risky deals. But there’s also risk in playing it safe, which has largely been the Ron Francis MO for the last few years. Winning a round in 2023 bought him some time, but at some point, the new-car smell starts to wear off and the fans want to watch a winner. I don’t think Stephenson and Montour get Seattle all the way there on their own, but they’re an important sign that the middle sibling isn’t content to just sulk in their room while everyone else has the fun.

Lesson: There might be something to this whole tax thing

It’s been the go-to grumble for fans for a few years now: Teams operating in zero-tax states have an advantage over everyone else when it comes to contracts because they can offer a lower number that still results in more money in a player’s pocket. I’ve pushed back on the idea, or at least on the degree to which it matters. Those charts you occasionally see that compare a dollar in Florida to one in Montreal rarely factor in any of the mitigation strategies available to players, and they never factor in other financial benefits some markets can offer, like endorsements and post-career earnings. Fans make way too big a deal of this, was my point. Basically, this.

I still believe that. I think. I’ll admit that it gets tougher when we see yet another day where the no-tax teams dominate. The Predators cooked. Tampa got their guy. The Panthers brought back Sam Reinhart on a deal that seems ridiculously underpriced for a 57-goal scorer. The Stars kept Matt Duchene on another cheap deal. Seattle got two big names. And Vegas is still lurking.

The tax havens didn’t get all the best players, but they certainly seemed to get all the best deals. At the very least, the day certainly gave the tax-complainers plenty of new ammo.

I still think we’re making too much of the tax issue. And even if we’re not, I’m not sure there’s anything we can do to fix it, short of adjusting the salary cap for individual teams, which opens up a ton of new problems. But yeah, I’ll admit that I’m starting to wonder if I’ve been too dismissive of this stuff. Tax rates might not be helping teams as much as we think, but they’re sure not hurting.

(Top photo of Steven Stamkos: Christopher Hanewinckel / USA Today)