Only once in AL/NL history did the eventual Most Valuable Players, Cy Young award winners and Rookies of the Year appear in the same postseason.
It happened in 1981, under extenuating circumstances. A players’ strike split the season into two halves, prompting the league to expand the postseason from four teams to eight. Meanwhile, two of the award winners received multiple honors. Rollie Fingers was the AL MVP and Cy Young. Fernando Valenzuela was the NL Cy Young and Rookie of the Year.
Which brings us to 2024.
This postseason will be absolutely star-studded. And yes, it could include both eventual MVPs, Cy Young Winner and Rookies of the Year.
The expansion of the playoffs from 10 teams to 12 in 2022 helped create the possibility. The Pittsburgh Pirates’ Paul Skenes winning Rookie of the Year could wreck it. But this October, we’re going to see:
*The two likely MVPs, Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees
*The two likely Cy Youngs, Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves (who might not be healthy enough to pitch) and Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers.
*And a host of leading Rookie of the Year contenders, from the San Diego Padres’ Jackson Merrill and Milwaukee Brewers’ Jackson Chourio in the NL to the Baltimore Orioles’ Colton Cowser and Yankees’ Luis Gil and Austin Wells in the AL.
As if that’s not enough, we’ve also got the likely MVP runner-ups, Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals and Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets. And lest we forget, Juan Soto of the Yankees, José Ramírez of the Cleveland Guardians and Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros; Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies and Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers. And many more.
This is what we all want to see, the biggest stars on the biggest stage. In presenting the top question for each postseason qualifier, let’s start with a guy who after seven seasons of dominating the sport finally is going to appear in the October crucible.
What will Shohei Ohtani do in his first October?
Consider two points of reference. The first is the 2023 World Baseball Classic, the closest thing Ohtani has experienced to the postseason. In 33 plate appearances, Ohtani batted .435 with a 1.345 OPS. He also produced a 1.86 ERA in 9 2/3 innings, concluding the tournament in dramatic fashion by striking out Mike Trout.
The second, more current point of reference is Ohtani’s performance in September. His .393 batting average and 1.225 OPS were his best marks in any month this season. For the second straight month, he also hit at least 10 homers and stole at least 15 bases. In AL/NL history, the only other player to produce one such month was Carlos Beltran in August 2004.
Shohei Ohtani has 10 HR & 15 SB this month
only other players with 10+ HR & 15+ SB in a calendar month:
Aug 2024 Shohei Ohtani (12 HR, 15 SB)
Aug 2004 Carlos Beltrán (10 HR, 16 SB)— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) September 29, 2024
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, in envisioning how Ohtani might handle his first postseason, told The Athletic’s Andy McCullough, “I think it can go one of two ways.” Ohtani will either get jumpy and press, or he will take his typically controlled at-bats and dominate. Here’s betting on the latter.
Oh, and another thing. Some in the game believe that if the Dodgers advance far enough, the possibility of Ohtani pitching will come into play, even with president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman saying, “it’s not really an option.”
One rival scout who witnessed one of Ohtani’s recent bullpen sessions said he was “letting it rip,” as opposed to throwing like a pitcher who was continuing his rehabilitation from major elbow surgery. Ohtani, the scout surmised, was preparing to pitch much sooner than next season.
Can Aaron Judge end his postseason slump?
When last we saw Judge in October, he followed his 62-homer campaign by going 1-for-16 in the 2022 American League Championship Series, and his Yankees were swept by the Astros.
In nearly 200 career plate appearances in the playoffs, Judge is batting .211 with a .310 on-base percentage. He has 13 homers, but is averaging one every 15.2 plate appearances, as opposed to one every 13.7 in the regular season.
The weakness of the Yankees’ lineup beyond Juan Soto, as outlined by The Athletic’s Jayson Stark in his recent awards column, will complicate Judge’s challenge. But Barry Bonds faced the same “he can’t hit in the postseason” narrative in the first part of his career. And wise baseball people said at the time, “Give a great player enough chances, and he’ll figure it out.”
Bonds sure did, though performance-enhancing drugs might have played a part. In 116 postseason plate appearances from 1990 to 2001, Bonds batted only .196 with one home run and a .618 OPS. But in the 2002 postseason, he went nuts, batting .356 with eight homers and a 1.559 OPS, nearly leading the San Francisco Giants to the World Series title.
Bonds walked 27 times that postseason, and 13 of them were intentional. In the 2022 playoffs, the Guardians and Astros both attacked Judge, each walking him only once. Some form of the Bonds treatment likely awaits Judge this October. When Judge gets his pitch, he needs to make like Bonds in ‘02, and crush it.
Will the Padres win their first World Series?
In 55 seasons, the Padres have only been to the Series twice – in 1984, when they lost to the Tigers in five games, and in 1998, when they were swept by the Yankees. Two years ago, they came within three games of a third Series appearance. And this year, no team in the tournament looks more complete.
The Padres’ offense, even with several of the team’s stars missing significant time or playing at less than strength, ranked eighth in runs and 10th in homers, all while producing by far the highest contact rate in the majors.
The team’s rotation for the wild-card series will be Michael King, Joe Musgrove and Dylan Cease. And if closer Robert Suarez’s second-half decline makes manager Mike Shildt skittish, trade acquisitions Tanner Scott and Jason Adams are available for high leverage.
This won’t be the Padres’ only shot with their current nucleus. Their only potential free agents of consequence are Scott, left fielder Jurickson Profar, catcher Kyle Higashioka, infielder Donovan Solano and injured shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Still, there is no guarantee the team will be this well-positioned next season, or in the years to come.
The Padres were 50-49 before the All-Star break and 43-20 after it. Their roster represents general manager A.J. Preller’s best work. Time to erase the memory of the 1998 Series, and umpire Rich Garcia’s failure to ring up Tino Martinez on an apparent strike by Mark Langston, once and for all.
How will the Phillies handle the layoff?
Back in spring training, several Phillies players seethed upon learning of Braves manager Brian Snitker’s comments about the effect of the five-day layoff before the Division Series.
Snitker said that he doesn’t like the playoff system, explaining, “it’s hard to hit velocity when you haven’t seen anything in five days.” A number of Phillies took offense, believing Snitker was making excuses and demeaning their back-to-back triumphs over the Braves in the DS. The Phils said they would much rather have the rest.
This year, after winning their first NL East title since 2011, they’ve got it. But the memory of last year’s NLCS loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, when the Phillies scored only three runs in the final two games at home, is still fresh. And the Phillies again raised concerns about their offense in September, when their chase rate was highest in the majors, and their highest in any month this season.
Perhaps we’re nitpicking. The Phillies still averaged nearly five runs per game in September, making it their second most productive month, and overall finished fifth in the majors in runs. Their rotation and bullpen are among the game’s best. It’s easy to envision them making a deep run.
But first, they must conquer a new challenge: The layoff.
Are the Orioles snapping out of it?
The Orioles got off to a 45-22 start, looking like one of the best teams in the majors. They then went into a 39-46 slide, their injuries mounting, bullpen collapsing and deadline trades providing insufficient help. The Yankees beat them by three games for the AL East title.
End of story? Not exactly. In the last 10 games, the Orioles’ old glimmer seemed to return, coinciding with the returns of a number of injured players. The team closed out the season on a 7-3 run, averaging 5.6 runs per game. The Royals will not be an easy wild-card series opponent. But the Orioles are at home. They are more experienced than they were a year ago against Texas in the Division Series. And they have Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin lined up for Games 1 and 2.
The Baltimore bullpen remains a major concern, even with Jacob Webb and Danny Coulombe coming off the injured list to provide reinforcement. This series will be a showdown between two top young shortstops, Witt Jr. and the Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson. But it also could be defined by the relievers the team acquired at the deadline.
Lucas Erceg has struck out 31 and walked only three since joining Kansas City. Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto have not been nearly as consistent for Baltimore.
How healthy is Vinnie Pasquantino?
The Royals will not decide until Tuesday whether to activate their first baseman, who suffered a broken right thumb Aug. 29 and underwent surgery five days later. But Pasquantino is ahead of his expected six-to-eight week recovery timeline. And heaven knows, the Royals need him.
Before Pasquantino’s injury, the Royals were 75-60, averaging 4.9 runs per game. After that, they went 11-16, averaging just 2.9 runs. The late August additions of Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman and Yuli Gurriel had minimal impact. Of that group, Gurriel had the highest OPS as a Royal:.635.
Pasquantino has been a spectator for the Royals down the stretch. Will that change in the postseason? (Denny Medley-Imagn Images)
Hitters who return from hand injuries often struggle, at least initially. Even if Pasquantino is activated, there is no guarantee he will be productive. But his return, at minimum, would give the team an emotional boost, and restore Pasquantino as a third significant presence in the lineup, along with Witt Jr. and Salvador Pérez.
The Royals last played the Orioles in April. Game 1 starter Cole Ragans shut Baltimore out on one hit for 6 1/3 innings. Game 2 starter Seth Lugo did not fare as well, allowing four runs in 51/3. After losing 106 games a year ago, the Royals are one of the better comeback stories in recent memory. With or without Pasquantino, no one should count them out.
Will the Astros do it again?
Back in April, when the Astros were 6-11, a certain bow-tied observer wrote that the team’s path to an eighth straight ALCS, looked “increasingly problematic.” The Astros bottomed out at 12-24 on May 8, then fell 10 games behind the Seattle Mariners on June 18. Not to worry. They were just getting started.
Houston’s big run took place largely without right fielder Kyle Tucker, who missed nearly three months with a fractured right shin. Even as a wild card, the Astros must be considered a threat to reach the ALCS yet again. But with a diminished Yordan Alvarez – or worse, no Alvarez at all – their path would be far more difficult.
It’s easy to forget with all the talk about Ohtani and Judge, but Alvarez remains one of the game’s most fearsome hitters, finishing the regular season fourth in the majors in OPS+ and fifth in slugging. He has not played since suffering a sprained right knee on Sept. 22, and the Astros will decide on his status Tuesday.
If Alvarez plays, he almost certainly will be the designated hitter, leaving Mauricio Dubón, Jason Heyward and possibly Chas McCormick – another Astro recovering from injury – to handle left field. Tucker, who has hit well since his return on Sept. 6, will need to be better than he was in last year’s playoffs, when he batted .150 with a .517 OPS. But so much with the Astros revolves around Alvarez.
His career slash line in 244 postseason plate appearances: .295/.393/.556. With 12 home runs.
Can Tarik Skubal steal a series – or two?
Don’t laugh. If Skubal beats Framber Valdez in Game 1, the pressure on the Astros will mount. And if the Tigers somehow pull off the upset, the two off-days in the AL Division Series schedule will allow Skubal to start Game 2 on an extra’s day rest and then Game 5 on normal rest, if necessary.
The Tigers in Skubal’s starts are 21-10, the equivalent of a 110-win team. Their plan for the Astros after Skubal, manager AJ Hinch told reporters on Monday, is “pitching chaos the rest of the way, which is kind of how it’s been the last two months.” Rest assured, Hinch will take great delight trying to inflict matchup hell on his former team.
The Tigers, mind you, have only two players with postseason experience (Matt Vierling and Kenta Maeda, the latter of whom is unlikely to be on the playoff roster). They purged four in the final two months (Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin and Gio Urshela). And their offense ranked seventh in strikeouts and 20th in runs during the regular season. As if their young players are aware of any of this, or care.
After being 10 games out in the wild-card race on Aug. 11, the Tigers’ incredible 31-11 run secured their first postseason berth in 10 years. The Astros have played 103 postseason games since then, but what the heck. It’s Skubal and chaos and make ‘em all famous. And then do it again.
Will the Guardians hit enough?
The overriding concern with the Guardians is their starting pitching, which isn’t much deeper than the Tigers’. But remember the praise many of us heaped on the team early in the season for its offensive transformation? The fun didn’t last.
The Guardians, after ranking ninth in runs per game before the All-Star break, dropped to 27th after it. Right field is unsettled. Second baseman Andres Gimenez’s 2022 breakout looks like an aberration. Catcher Bo Naylor and shortstop Bryan Rocchio are essentially outs, each finishing the season with a .614 OPS.
It seems crazy, based on the way the Guardians started, but their offensive production, according to OPS+, is essentially the same it has been the past three seasons. The league average for that metric is set to 100. The Guardians were at 102 in 2022 and 91 in 2023, and finished at 99 this season.
Ramírez is wondrous. The Guardians’ bullpen is the best in the sport. And Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd should provide decent starts in Games 1 and 2. But after making outfielder Lane Thomas their only offensive addition at the deadline, the Guardians’ run production is again in question. And it could bite them in the DS.
Will the Milwaukee Brewers run the Mets into Lake Michigan?
The Brewers, in many ways, are the Guardians’ NL twin. Both teams achieved unlikely success behind managers who replaced established winners. Both feature questionable rotations and powerhouse bullpens. The difference is that the Brewers are more adept at finding ways to score.
Want to hear a crazy stat? The Brewers’ offensive production essentially was the same after Christian Yelich was lost for the season on July 23 as it was before. The emergence of Jackson Chourio played a significant role in keeping the offense strong. But the team finished sixth in the majors in runs despite having the lowest slugging percentage of any NL qualifier (both the Guardians and Tigers were lower in the AL).
As the Mets are well aware, only the Washington Nationals stole more bases than the Brewers during the regular season. In six games against the Mets, Milwaukee went 17-for-17 attempting to steal. The Brewers’ only loss in the season series was Sunday, when they had little to accomplish on the final day of the their regular season.
In addition to being the best baserunning team in the majors, per Fangraphs, the Brewers are a top fielding club according to every leading defensive metric. The Mets will carry the euphoria of Monday’s dramatic clincher into this series. But the Brewers will be at home, ready to do what they’ve done all season. Find ways to win.
Can the Mets pull it off?
When Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said in spring training he thought the team could make the playoffs, Kodai Senga was healthy, Jose Iglesias was a non-roster player and Mark Vientos was ticketed for Triple A.
No season ever works out as planned, but this sure isn’t the script most envisioned for the Mets back on June 2, when their 24-35 record was the third-worst in the National League. They proceeded to go 64-37 the rest of the way, including a 16-4 run between Aug. 29 and Sept. 19.
Francisco Lindor celebrates after the Mets’ clinched their way into the playoffs in Monday’s doubleheader. (Brett Davis-Imagn Images)
Can they keep it going? By winning the opener of Monday’s doubleheader, they preserved Luis Severino for Game 1 against the Brewers. Sean Manaea will be on normal rest for Game 2, with José Quintana likely on a short least in Game 3, if necessary.
The bullpen will be another matter, especially in the early part of the series. Edwin Díaz threw 40 pitches during his rollercoaster outing in Monday’s clincher. Phil Maton has worked three straight days. The Mets will need to hit to overcome their potentially shaky run prevention. But who knows? Maybe they’ll go off script again.
Et tu, Chris Sale?
This will be the third straight year in which the Atlanta Braves entered the postseason with physical questions surrounding at least one starting pitcher. Max Fried and Spencer Strider in 2022. Fried and Charlie Morton in ‘23. And now Sale, after a regular season in which the team never had Strider.
Sale was scratched from Monday’s second game after experiencing back spasms. Braves manager Brian Snitker said he does not expect the Cy Young favorite to be available for the wild-card series against the Padres – a massive problem for Atlanta, which, without Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley to boost the offense, is currently built around its rotation.
How exactly are the Braves going to piece this together? Snitker told reporters AJ Smith-Sawver, Hurston Waldrep and Ian Anderson were among the options for Game 1. Together, those three pitchers combined to make three starts this season. The Atlanta bullpen, after effectively working 13 innings in the doubleheader, with Joe Jiménez and Raisel Iglesias appearing in both games, is surely exhausted. The only good news: Fried would be available on normal rest in Game 2, as would Reynaldo López in Game 3, if necessary. And who knows, perhaps Sale will recover in time to pitch.
The Rangers won their wild-card series on the road after flying cross-country last season to face the Tampa Bay Rays, but at least had a day off before the series started. The Braves will not get the same benefit against the Padres, and they’re in much worse shape than the Rangers were overall.
The next several weeks could be as nuts as the Braves-Mets opener was on Monday. Big stars, flawed teams and wild games will all be part of the postseason stew.
October, here we go.
(Top photo of Judge: (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images) / Ohtani: (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images))
