In Part 1 of this first Mailbagg of the offseason, we answered some of the big-picture questions about what went wrong in the latter stages of the Farhan Zaidi regime and what baseball operations will look like going forward under president of baseball operations Buster Posey.
I know. I’m still getting used to it, too.
In Part 2, we’ll delve into more specific questions about roster needs and priorities. What will the infield look like? How aggressive will they be in free agency? Is it even worth raising hopes about a Juan Soto signing? Or even a Blake Snell reunion? Let’s get right into it:
Realistically, how long would it take to turn the Giants farm system into one of the best? — Tony C.
Pardon the direction I’m about to take here, but I’m interested in the framing of the question. What does “one of the best” mean to you? I tend to think we in the media (and fans/readers, as well) get too caught up in farm system or prospect rankings. Flags don’t fly based on whatever Baseball America or MLB Pipeline decrees. Now, of course, organizational rankings mean something because they give a sense of how much the industry values a team’s minor league inventory. But I’m just not sure they’re as important as they used to be. That’s because top prospects so seldom get traded anymore. Does it matter how much the industry values prospects if those prospects are never used to acquire other players of value?
Now, if your definition of “one of the best” is a functional farm system that sends useful and productive players to the big leagues, then I think the Giants are already doing that to some extent. Just this past season, we saw contributions from Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp, Patrick Bailey, Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald, Ryan Walker, etc. What the Giants haven’t done, of course, is produce a star franchise player. They’ve made some pretty weird picks in the first round that has probably limited the high-ceiling talent in the system. But Bryce Eldridge could be poised to be that kind of player in the near future.
Is Eldridge the future face of the Giants franchise? (Sam Hodde / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
My point is this: Despite not tanking and not loading up on top-5 picks over the past six years, the Giants have done a pretty decent job producing big-league contributors. Sure, they could have produced more of them. I’m not sure an organization is ever satisfied in that regard. Perhaps if they’d hit on a couple more draft picks or had more in the pipeline, then Farhan Zaidi might have been more aggressive in trading prospects to address major-league roster needs. Then again, I’m not sure if that’s true. The entire industry is super risk averse and Zaidi struck me as conservative even amid those broader trends.
The Giants farm system isn’t broken by any means. But under Posey’s management, it’ll be interesting to see where the shifts in priorities might be. For instance, will they pump the brakes on quick promotions?
We saw Zaidi hold onto prospects and watch their trade value shrivel up. I can’t recall really any significant prospect-for-major-leaguer trade we made where we gave up anything remotely close to a top prospect. We’ve seen the Dodgers and Padres do this for years. The farm system hasn’t been the pipeline we all hoped it would be under Zaidi, but even teams with thin systems gamble on trades sometimes. Giants haven’t. With Posey, do you get any sense he might itch to make more waves than Zaidi? Like going all out on a trade for a controllable talent or outbidding all other teams to make sure they get their free agent. — Tanner T.
Tanner’s question dovetails nicely here. I can’t disagree with your characterization. What’s my sense about Posey? I’m not sure I have a clear idea here. On one hand, I think he has more appreciation for how star players can create entertainment value and excitement, along with the value they create on the field and in the standings. I also know that Posey is committed to player development and that team building is not only more sustainable through the farm system but that there’s the chance for a special brew when rosters are populated with players who came up through the minors together.
Will that make Posey more risk-averse or less risk-averse when it comes to trading prospects? It’s one of dozens of questions that will probably be answered over time through actions over words.
Do we need to rebuild or are the Giants a starting pitcher, middle infielder and power hitting corner outfielder/first baseman away? — Peter C.
Short of signing Juan Soto (doubtful) and re-signing Blake Snell (also doubtful), I’m not sure that the Giants could pull off an offseason that would get them to 86-plus wins under any projection system. A lot would have to go right next season. But every year, it seems to me that most teams (sorry, not you, White Sox) are a few shrewd moves away from being a potential surprise contender in this era of a third wild card. Whether it’s the young pitching or a full season of Jung Hoo Lee or the bullpen, there are a lot of assets on San Francisco’s major-league roster that rebuilding teams generally don’t have.
Have you been able to determine if Posey is planning to patiently rebuild through drafting and developing players versus go all out to win now? Based on Johnson’s comments, it appears they determined the path they’ve been on, trying to win and rebuild at the same time isn’t viable. Or do they think they can accomplish that with a different approach? — Justin D.
It’s the $237 million (plus) question. Judge them by their actions, not what they say. I’d be surprised if they exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second consecutive season, which potentially would open them up to stiffer penalties. But I doubt you’ll see them offload multiple payroll obligations and strip down, either. Seems like it’ll be another “thread the needle” season with perhaps more reliance on young players and a roster augmented by one or two free agents, not five or seven. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Does Blake Snell declining his last start reveal anything about his chances of returning? Does it reflect a lack of interest in re-signing with the Giants? Or, does it betray an attitude that conflicts with the “winning culture” Buster Posey said he’d establish? — William S.
Baggs, I thought your article about Snell not taking the ball the second to last day of the season was interesting. For the record, I have zero issue with him doing that as he needs to do what’s best for his career. And if the Giants were that concerned about it, they could have signed him to a bigger contract in the offseason. But I got the sense from your piece that there were folks in the organization who didn’t like that he bowed out. Is that true and is it safe to say that Buster is the type of person who would frown upon something like that? — Daniel M.
Snell has said that he loved his time in San Francisco and would welcome re-signing here. I’ve described him as refreshingly different: a player who doesn’t big-league people and is just as likely to befriend a clubhouse kid or a security guard as a fellow teammate. He said he skipped his last start because there wasn’t anything at stake for either team and because he trusted the advice of people closest to him. But if he really wanted to re-sign with the Giants, then in my opinion, he didn’t get the best advice.
They went into the luxury tax to sign him. They gave up a draft pick to sign him. They were winless of the days of his turn through the rotation through mid-May. They paid him $30 million to make 20 starts. Sure, it’s understandable that Snell would shut it down and not risk pitching in the 161st game. It’s also understandable that the Giants would have misgivings about what they received from their investment in him — and how, on fan appreciation weekend, the most entertaining pitcher in the NL in the second half would prioritize his future earnings over the obligation he had to his current team. (A team that had to run through all its pitching in that game, by the way, and had to send down Landen Roupp and cost him a day of service time as a result.)
If the market for Snell is anything close to what he expected it to be last offseason, I don’t see how the Giants remain involved.
It seems like the Giants are poised to make a trade. Which young Giants are most likely to get moved as centerpieces of said trade (Marco Luciano, Camilo Doval, Luis Matos, Brett Wisely, Kyle Harrison)? — Brian R.
Luciano seems like the knee-jerk response here, especially if he’s moved to the outfield where the Giants don’t have a lot of elbow room on the depth chart. As for Doval …
Do you agree the Giants non-tender Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski, and LaMonte Wade, Jr.? None of those guys drove in the runs to be expected from corner outfielders and a first baseman. — Garrett S.
Michael Conforto is a free agent. No decision to make there. I’d expect the Giants will tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players. (More on those decisions here.) I also wouldn’t consider it beyond the realm of possibility that some of those players — Wade Jr., Doval — could become part of a trade package. The most expensive of the arb-eligible players will be Yastrzemski, but he’s a WAR generator who has particular value to the Giants because of how well he plays right field. I’m pretty sure Posey and Zaidi were aligned in their mutual respect for what Yastrzemski brings to a team and a clubhouse.
Juan Soto…future Giant? (Emma Corona / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Juan Soto? — Andrew T.
He’s a difference-making offensive player. He’ll cost upwards of $500 million. No question, he’d make the Giants a better run-producing team. No, he probably won’t hit 40 homers in San Francisco. But he might walk 150 times in that lineup. Which prompts the question: how much value does a player like that actually generate for a team when you don’t have someone fearsome to hit behind him and drive him in? (To wit: Wade posted a .380 on-base percentage. He scored 45 runs.)
What do you see Posey doing about the catching position, specifically the backup catcher? Tom Murphy has a team option for next year, Curt Casali is a free agent, and Blake Sabol caught down in Sacramento. — Casey R.
Murphy has a guaranteed salary of $4 million next year. The club option ($4 million with a $250,000 buyout) is for 2026. What isn’t guaranteed is Murphy’s spot on the opening-day roster. There’s a decent chance he’s traded this winter. Even if he has a locker in Scottsdale next spring, I’d expect that he’ll have to win his place. I’d also expect that the Giants will bring in ample competition.
Will the Jordan Hicks “experiment” continue? Even though he lasted as a started for longer than expected, it sounds like the strain on his shoulder was well more than expected. Plus, with the way that the bullpen has been taxed the last few years, it might be good to have him in the ‘pen only? — Sarah H.
It all depends on how he’s feeling in the spring. The bullpen was a fallback plan all along. Honestly, Hicks might be most valuable in a swingman role for a team willing to deploy its pitching in a non-traditional way. I’m not sure that will describe the Giants in 2025, though.
Casey Schmitt seemed to make big strides toward the end of the season. Does he get a shot at shortstop or second base next year? — David P.
Hard to answer before the Giants make any roster additions but Zaidi’s stated goal was to get a shortstop that could allow them to let second base play out between Fitzgerald and Schmitt. I agree, Schmitt went out on an encouraging note last season. He was able to access more pull power and if he’s able to be a little better than a league-average hitter, then his premium defensive skills would make him a valuable player.
Will the Giants be looking for a shortstop and move Fitzgerald around in 2025 or can Fitzgerald settle in as the long-term everyday shortstop? — Andrew B.
The scouting community sees Fitzgerald as a fringe-average shortstop. I do think he has all the physical gifts to be quite a bit better than that. It has to help having a third baseman like Matt Chapman on the same side of the infield. The Giants are probably best served by upgrading at short and moving Fitzgerald to second base. Either way, if he posts an .831 OPS every season, the Giants will find a place to play him.
Who do you think the Giants will add to the 40 man roster in order to protect for Rule 5 Draft? Are Carson Ragsdale, Will Bednar, Nick Sinacola or Victor Bericoto likely to be added? — John B.
Some years it’s a real puzzle. Not this time. Ragsdale would seem to be the most automatic. Bednar probably hasn’t thrown enough strikes for a team to carry him all season in a major-league bullpen, but he was up to 97 mph and he has first-round pedigree. So I could see a team taking a chance if the Giants don’t protect him. Shortstop Aeverson Arteaga will be draft-eligible but he was limited to 21 games at High-A Eugene because he was recovering from surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. The Giants didn’t protect outfielder Grant McCray last year and he wasn’t taken. So I’d have a hard time believing that Arteaga could be snatched away in this Rule 5 draft.
(Top photo of Snell: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
