What to know about the L.A. County district attorney's race

Good morning. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

Crime rates take center stage in L.A. County district attorney’s race. Should they?

With just a few weeks before the Nov. 5 election, let’s check in on the race for Los Angeles County district attorney.

Progressive incumbent George Gascón is being challenged by conservative former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman in a contest viewed by many as a referendum on Gascón’s reform-minded efforts to change the criminal justice status quo. But some perceive his experiment as a failure and Hochman is asking voters to consider crime rates in L.A. County — down by some metrics but higher in several categories —
as they make their decision.

Times investigative reporter Connor Sheets summed up the choice before voters in his guide to the D.A.’s race: “Four more years of Gascón’s less punitive policies, or a return to the more traditional approach championed by Hochman.”

‘A new path’ vs. ‘the full extent of the law’

Gascón, a Democrat, was elected district attorney in 2020, fueled in large part by the massive social reckoning over institutional racism and criminal justice reform in the wake of George Floyd’s killing. He vowed to carve “a new path” for the criminal justice system in the nation’s most populous county and to “break the multi-generational cycles of violence, trauma and arrest and recidivism that has led America to incarcerate more people than any other nation.”

Over the last four years, that path has been uphill and riddled with obstacles and critics, including some in his own office who he hoped would support him. Gascón’s policies have proved controversial — some see him as a progressive reformer, others as soft on crime.

He put serious limits on cash bail in the county and limited the use of sentencing enhancements that can add decades to prison terms. He also drastically reduced the number of misdemeanor cases his office handles.

Hochman, an independent who previously ran for state office as a Republican, accuses his opponent of enacting “extreme pro-criminal, anti-victim policies” that have made the county’s residents less safe. He has served as president of the L.A. Ethics Commission and says he will take a “hard middle” approach to prosecute people “to the full extent of the law” and restore sentencing enhancements.

Gascón has hammered his challenger on his political past and rhetoric he said carries an “undertone of mass incarceration.”

“He talks about how he’s going to provide for safety, but he talks about no flexibility, everyone faces the maximum penalty no matter what,” Gascón said during their Tuesday debate. “It’s so much code-talking for mass incarceration, it’s so much code-talking for the war on drugs.”

Despite Gascón’s major transformations of the office, “the results in practice haven’t all been dramatic,” Connor wrote. In February, The Times reported that data showed that 51% of cases filed by prosecutors during his first term were felonies, down just 3% from the final two years of the term of his predecessor, Jackie Lacey.

Even so, Hochman’s argument appears to be winning over more voters in the weeks ahead of Nov. 5.

A new poll shows Hochman holds sizable support over Gascón

The survey from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Times, asked L.A. County voters whom they would pick “if the election were held today.” Just over half (51%) said they’d choose Hochman, compared with 21% who would cast a ballot for Gascón. An additional 28% said they were undecided.

While answering a survey is not the same as casting a ballot, Hochman’s 30-point lead is substantial.

Respondents were also asked to rank key reasons for supporting either candidate.

For Gascón, the top reasons among those polled were that he would “continue his efforts to increase police accountability” (91%) and “continue to reform the criminal justice system” (85%). Of the likely voters surveyed, 96% believed Hochman would “be more effective in prosecuting cases involving violent crime” while 90% felt he would “reduce turmoil and bring needed change to the district attorney’s office.”

The race highlights the dichotomy between data and vibes when it comes to public safety

By some key indicators, many communities in L.A. County and beyond are seeing crimes recede after the pandemic crime surge.

Homicides and shootings both fell in the city of L.A. after a pandemic surge, according to LAPD data. At the county level, the number of homicides fell by 30% in 2022 compared with 2021, but increased roughly 9% last year, according to the Sheriff’s Department.

Violent crime in L.A. County rose about 8% from 2019 to 2022. Property crimes, including burglaries and car thefts, increased about 18% in that same time frame.

“But that’s a far cry from the 13 counties that saw 20% or higher rises in violent crime in 2022 alone,” Connor noted in his voter guide. “Experts tend to caution against reading too much into short-term crime trends, and Gascón’s defenders note that crime also rose elsewhere under the watch of more conservative prosecutors.”

But nuanced statistics aren’t making people feel safer right now.

In a Gallup poll published last year, 63% of respondents said crime was an “extremely serious” or “very serious” problem in the U.S., while 17% said the same about their local area. Both were the highest shares of those responses in more than two decades of surveys.

“Voters don’t know data,” Democratic political consultant Roy Behr told The Times this week. “What they know are anecdotes. And over the last four years there have been a massive number of televised anecdotes with store break-ins or other violent acts that have created the perception of crime run amok.”

Do people give D.A.s too much blame/credit for crime?

District attorneys and the crime rates during their terms tend to be a focal point in campaigns and news coverage. But crime rates are “not the most appropriate measure for having a sense of whether a D.A. has been successful or not,” according to Magnus Lofstrom, director of criminal justice at the Public Policy Institute of California.

There are myriad factors influencing crime that the district attorney doesn’t control, Lofstrom told me this year. One aspect includes police staffing levels.

“Most law enforcement agencies in California and elsewhere are facing recruitment and retention challenges,” he said. “Policing staff numbers is something that research consistently point towards having an impact on crime and crime rates. ” Add that to the array of pandemic-related effects, along with poverty, homelessness and other socioeconomic challenges.

Part of the challenge incumbents like Gascón face, Loftrom said, is that it can take years of research to truly understand the impacts of major policy shifts. But that’s a hard sell to voters who are seeing certain crimes on the rise and/or filling local news broadcasts.

“When there [are] concerns that public safety is deteriorating, it’s going to be something that is on our minds,” he said. “I think it’s especially in those times when patience is limited.”

Gascón’s fall in favorability speaks to the backlash progressive district attorneys have weathered in recent years. Gascón survived a recall effort in 2022, the same year San Francisco Dist. Atty. Chesa Boudin also faced one and was ousted. Pamela Price, D.A. in nearby Alameda County, faces a recall vote next month. A progressive D.A. in Oregon’s Multnomah County lost his seat to a centrist challenger in a primary election this year.

If the polls are any indication, a majority of L.A. County’s eligible voters have already made up their minds about the D.A.’s race.

But for those undecided or on the fence, Connor’s voter guide is a great resource. And be sure to check out the rest of The Times’ 2024 voter guides as you prep for your big act of democracy.

Today’s top stories

Vice President Kamala Harris poses for photographs with well-wishers at Los Angeles International Airport in June.

(Christina House/Los Angeles Times)

Harris leads Trump in California, but her Latino support softens, poll shows

• The vice president leads Trump among California Latinos but by a smaller margin than President Biden won by four years ago, according to the survey by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Times.
• Harris’ 57%-35% overall lead in California over Trump is little changed from her August margin of 59% to 34%, the poll found.
• In other election news, here are five times both Harris and Trump have changed their stances on issues.
• And if Trump wins the White House, Californians want their next senator to fight back, a poll found.

Lawyers for Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs say the feds leaked a video of him assaulting singer Cassie

• Combs’ lead attorneys said they might seek to have the video, which shows Combs kicking and striking Cassandra “Cassie” Ventura in an L.A. hotel hallway, excluded from his trial.
• Meanwhile, authorities say they have “several terabytes of electronic data” from phones, computers and other devices associated with the hip-hop mogul.

California students improved on math and English test scores, but pandemic losses have yet to reverse

• Test scores for California public school students are trending upward — especially among Latino, Black and low-income children, according to state data released this week.
• But a majority of all students placed below grade-level standards. Only 36.8% were proficient in English, 25% in math and 20.7% in science.

The Dodgers and Padres prepare to face off in a decisive Game 5

What else is going on

Get unlimited access to the Los Angeles Times. Subscribe here.

• Elon Musk’s courtship with MAGA has driven X into a misinformation abyss, columnist Lorraine Ali writes.
• When Trump talks “bad genes” and “racehorse theory,” he is telling us who he is, columnist Jackie Calmes writes.
• Conservatives keep claiming that California’s $20 fast-food minimum wage led to a job bloodbath. They’re still wrong, columnist Michael Hiltzik writes.
• Trump says he’ll expel a million immigrants. Believe him — it happened before, writes Dana Frank, an author and professor of history emerita at UC Santa Cruz.

This morning’s must reads

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

Hollywood veterans get brutally honest about mentoring the next generation amid industry turmoil. Hollywood veterans said they feel an obligation to “speak truth to facts” with people trying to break into the entertainment industry right now.

Other must reads

• L.A.’s quake mystery: 2024 brings the most seismic activity in decades. Why now?
• Younger daters are tired of swiping. A host of new L.A. startups is vying for their attention.
• Gen Alpha kids are spending big money on skin care. Some adults are concerned.

How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com.

For your downtime

A spread of pastries at Breadbelly in San Francisco, including the bakery’s famous pandan-infused kaya toast.

(Bill Addison / Los Angeles Times)

Going out

Staying in

And finally … what’s a good book to read this fall?

A customer browses at Village Well Books & Coffee in Culver City in 2021.

(Christina House/Los Angeles Times)

Alicia D. writes: “‘Life on the Mississippi’ by Rinker Buck. This is not the Mark Twain book by the same name.

“Rinker Buck built his own flatboat a few years ago and piloted it down the Mississippi River from Ohio to New Orleans, re-creating how people lived and traveled in the 19th century. His adventures encompass treacherous waters, history (past and present) of towns along the way and the trials and joys of asking both friends and strangers to help with the struggle to stay alive on a dangerous journey.”

And Karen J. Kovacs writes: “‘The Sea, the Sea’ by Iris Murdoch. I fell in love with this book about retired famous stage actor Charles Harrowby the first time I read it 30 years ago and have read it so many times since. I’ve lost count (after the second or third time I painted a watercolour-gouache called ‘A Rose for Iris’ that features two pages from the book) and am reading it again this month. I have gifted this book to many friends and envy everyone who reads it for the first time.”

Thank you so much for the book recommendations this week! If you’re looking for more, here’s a list of 30 books to check out this fall.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Defne Karabatur, fellow
Andrew Campa, Sunday reporter
Hunter Clauss, multiplatform editor
Christian Orozco, assistant editor
Stephanie Chavez, deputy metro editor
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on latimes.com.