Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7 p.m. ET/ 4 p.m. PT. We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions.
The State of the Race
The Best Visual Effects Oscar race has turned into a potential Wētā FX simian battle between “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios) and “Better Man” (Paramount), the Robbie Williams musical biopic, in which the British pop star is portrayed as a CG chimp. However, the fall will bring both “Gladiator II” (Paramount) and “Wicked” (Universal), among others. And don’t forget “Dune: Part 2” (Warner Bros.), which is also a major contender.
Wes Ball’s “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” kicks off the post-Caesar (Andy Serkis) saga 300 years later, diving deeper into the now dominant ape civilization. Wētā greatly upgraded its photoreal performance capture animation and VFX, leveraging tech from the previous “Apes” trilogy along with the Oscar-winning “Avatar: The Way of Water.” Additionally, Ball made use of a lot more VFX action set pieces (33 minutes are entirely digital — a franchise first) by incorporating his hand-held, single-take visual style. Maybe now Wētā can win the elusive Oscar for the franchise.
The New Zealand VFX studio used dual-camera facial rigs to capture the detail and emotion of the ape performances (led by Owen Teague’s Noa and Kevin Durand’s Proximus Caesar) with greater fidelity. They also refined tools for muscle simulation, facial animation, grooming, water simulations, painting textures, shaders, and rendering to create more realistic and chattier apes. In addition, Wētā embraced more expansive environments, with the simians developing their own civilization in villages spread throughout the overgrown Pacific Northwest (shot in New South Wales, Australia). The highlights are the early siege of Noa’s village, the homage to “The Hunt” from the 1968 original, and the thrilling rushing water sequence at the end.
Oddly enough, “Better Man” shows off a completely different Wētā simian style (production VFX supervised by Luke Millar). The CG chimp conceit came about when Williams told director Michael Gracey that he felt like a performing monkey in his youth. This became the driving metaphor about Williams’ rise and fall as a result of arrested development and addictions. Wētā adopted a less polished approach to mimic Williams’ mannerisms from youngster to adult (performance-captured by actor Jonno Davie). The highlight is the elaborate musical sequences, where the star is confronted by ape-like personifications of his hidden demons in the audience.
Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part 2” is more exciting and emotional, with Paul (Timothée Chalamet) leading the nomadic Fremen in a holy war on Arrakis. VFX supervisor Paul Lambert and his Oscar-winning “Dune” DNEG team ramped up everything with much more visceral action, particularly with Paul and the Fremen riding the massive CG sandworms into battle against the Sardaukar.
The highlight is Paul riding atop the sandworm for the first time to complete his Fremen rite of passage. It was shot practically in the desert as part of a separate “worm” unit and took over three months to complete. Chalamet stood on a platform with gimbals designed by SFX supervisor Gerd Nefzer as the sandworm set piece, with gripping devices imitating the Fremen hooks, and surrounded by an industrial fan that blew sand on the set. Also, for a challenging sequence showing the movement of a baby sandworm, they used a sophisticated tracking system with carpets under the sand.
Jon Chu’s “Wicked” (Universal), the long-awaited adaptation of the Broadway musical fantasy by Stephen Schwartz and Winnie Holzman, tells us how the Wicked Witch and Glinda the Good Witch became rivals. In this origin story, an unlikely friendship forms between Elphaba (Cynthia Erivo), a compassionate girl with green skin, and the conceited Galinda (Ariana Grande) at Shiz University in the Land of Oz. ILM and Framestore split VFX duties, with ILM’s Pablo Helman serving as production supervisor. They lean into magical realism for the Land of Oz, inspired mainly by the look of the illustrations in L. Frank Baum’s original “Wizard of Oz” books. The CG work includes hundreds of animals, displays of sorcery, atmospherics, and lots of extensions.
Lee Isaac Chung’s “Twisters” (Universal) puts storm-chasing rivals Kate (Daisy Edgar-Jones) and Tyler (Glen Powell) in the middle of Oklahoma’s most terrifying ordeal. ILM (which worked on the 1996 “Twister”) returns for the update, led by production VFX supervisor Ben Snow, who was an artist on the original movie. They took actual storm footage assets captured by professional storm chaser Sean Casey and created six tornado sequences. These had a design aesthetic combining physics with a stylistic flourish, accomplished through both practical SFX and digital VFX.
George Miller’s “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.) utilized more CG in post than its predecessor, “Fury Road,” for this thrilling prequel about the titular hero’s badass rite of passage. Alyla Browne plays her as a child and teenager and Anya Taylor-Joy as an adult, with Rising Sun Pictures using AI machine learning software to make Browne’s eyes more resemble Anya Taylor-Joy’s.
Returning production VFX supervisor Andrew Jackson from DNEG oversaw more realistic fire, water, dust, and smoke. The VFX team extended the Wasteland desert landscape and skies and embellished the newly created Gas Town and Bullet Town environments. Plus, they were able to replace or augment the iconic vehicles (especially the multitude of motorcycles) for the action set pieces, the highlight of which was the 15-minute “Stowaway to Nowhere” sequence, where raiders ambush the War Rig driven by Praetorian Jack (Tom Burke) and Furiosa.
Fede Álvarez’s “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios), a standalone set between “Alien” and “Aliens,” concerns young colonists who encounter the parasitic Xenomorphs while scavenging a derelict space station. In a throwback to the original, there’s a deft combination of animatronics and CG. ILM joins Image Engine, Tippett Studio, and Wētā (production supervised by Oscar winner Eric Barba of “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”). There are Facehuggers and Xenomorphs (including a cool zero-gravity fight sequence), a hybrid human/Xenomorph from Wētā, and a diabolical android named Rook that resembles Ash (Ian Holm) from “Alien,” using a Legacy puppet and Metaphysic Live, the generative AI software from Metaphysic, for transferring the facially-captured and de-aged performance to the puppet.
Tim Burton’s “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.), the sequel to his horror comedy, sees Michael Keaton’s foul-mouth ghoul return to torment the Deetz family 36 years later. VFX was split between Framestore, One of Us, and BUF. Framestore’s Angus Bickerton serves as production supervisor, with an obvious preference for in-camera physical effects (and even stop-motion for a crashing plane sequence). This is in keeping with the spirit of the 1988 original.
Alex Garland’s “Civil War” (A24) dystopian actioner handled by Framestore, required a VFX look to complement the film‘s gritty, doc-style aesthetic, capturing as much in-camera as possible. The studio (led by production VFX supervisor David Simpson) created 1,000 invisible VFX shots, most of which centered on the climactic attack on Washington, D.C. (shot in Atlanta), including the White House. The environment work was detailed down to each building having different lightbulbs, internal office furniture, and desk clutter, all of it feeling recently abandoned.
“Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” (Warner Bros.) featured work by Wētā, Scanline VFX, DNEG, and Luma Pictures, among others. The titular monsters got a subtle upgrade while Wētā created the new Kong adversary Skar King, the cunning, lanky, red-haired orangutan-like creature who lords over the subterranean realm of Hollow Earth. They overhauled the design concept to ensure his biomechanics worked in line with the desired motion and also roughed him up, complete with a cat-eye reflection in one of his eyes.
David Leitch’s “The Fall Guy” (Universal), his loving ode to stunt performers (inspired by the ’80s TV series), boasted a record-breaking cannon roll, a 225-foot car jump, a helicopter high fall, and a boat jump by the stunt team. Ryan Gosling stars as an ace stuntman trying to make a comeback on a sci-fi actioner directed by former girlfriend Emily Blunt, while simultaneously solving the mysterious disappearance of Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s lead actor. The invisible VFX (production VFX supervised by Matt Sloan) was handled by Framestore, Cinesite, Rising Sun Pictures, and Crafty Apes as an ’80s retro throwback, honoring the legacy of the practical stunts with a hybrid approach that enhances the action.
Michael Sarnoski’s “A Quiet Place: Day One” (Paramount) prequel, in which Sam (Lupita Nyong’o) is on a mission to grab the last slice of pizza in Manhattan while under attack by the alien creatures, offers a greater range of animated creature work and variation in size from ILM (production supervised by Malcolm Humphreys). There’s also more of a hint at how they survive as a social group. Whereas the creatures disposed of bodies quickly in the first two movies, here we witness how they communicate, how they eat, and how they relate to each other.
As for the rest: Robert Zemeckis’ “Here” (Sony Pictures) marks the latest cutting-edge VFX film in the Oscar-winning director’s career. Adapted from the influential graphic novel by Richard McGuire, the drama concerns what happens among a family in a single room of their home over a century. It reunites the director with his “Forrest Gump” co-stars Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, who play a boyfriend and girlfriend in their teens during the Vietnam War and eventually marry and grow old together. Zemeckis has adopted a virtual production methodology around Metaphysic Live, which face-swaps and de-ages the actors in real-time as they perform instead of relying on post-production processing. DNEG handles the VFX with long-time Zemeckis collaborator Kevin Baillie supervising the production.
Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II” (Paramount), the sequel to his Oscar-winning “Gladiator,” introduces a new generation of warriors starring Paul Mescal as Lucius Verus, the former heir to the Empire forced to fight as a gladiator, Denzel Washington as Macrinus, a former slave-turned-wealthy merchant, and Pedro Pascal as Marcus Acacius, a fierce Roman general. Framestore and ILM share primary VFX honors, including the battles at sea and gladiator action, with Mark Bakowski serving as production supervisor.
Shawn Levy’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel/Disney) reunites Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool and Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine for the first time as part of the R-rated “Deadpool” franchise within the MCU. The time-bender involves the TVA (Time Variance Authority) and introduces baddie Cassandra Nova (Emma Corrin), the mutant with telekinetic and telepathic powers and the twin sister of Charles Xavier. VFX is mainly divided between ILM, Framestore, Wētā, and Rising Sun Pictures (production supervised by Swen Gillberg). Among ILM’s contributions (supervised by Vincent Papaix) were complex CG extensions and FX simulation, and lots of FX gore and CG character work.
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Disney) might seem like a stretch for “Moonlight” Oscar winner Barry Jenkins, but this animated origin story about Mufasa’s (Aaron Pierre) rise to nobility is dear to the director’s heart, and he’s tamed the photorealistic tech to suit his performance-driven vision. The prequel to Jon Favreau’s innovative virtual production remake of “The Lion King” (nominated for the VFX Oscar) involves an updated version of the same workflow from MPC (VR with Unreal for layout but then keyframe animated with greater emotional nuance).
Joachim Rønning’s “Young Woman and the Sea” (Disney) contains noteworthy water simulation by MPC (production supervised by Richard Briscoe) for the swimming biopic about Trudy Ederle (Daisy Ridley), the first woman to successfully swim the English Channel in 1926. Calm water plates were enhanced with digital ocean replacements in key places. This involved complex, multi-layered FX simulations to capture the natural movement and texture of the choppy waters in the Channel. In addition, for a dangerous swim through a smack of jellyfish, MPC integrated the CG creatures into live-action plates for precise compositing and animation.
Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order; no film will be deemed a frontrunner until we have seen it.
Frontrunners
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Twisters”
“Wicked”
Contenders
“Alien: Romulus”
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”
“Civil War”
“Deadpool & Wolverine”
“The Fall Guy″
“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga”
“Gladiator II”
“Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire”
“Here”
“Mufasa: The Lion King”
“A Quiet Place: Day One”
“Young Woman and the Sea”
