Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
The countdown to Selection Sunday continues, and the number of bubble teams still in action is slowly dwindling. Outside of Texas and the A-10, most of the action came from out west — and the Mountain West in particular is making a push for more bids.
Bubble fixture Boise State took down No. 1 seed New Mexico in the conference tournament semifinals, adding another key victory to the Broncos’ resume. On the other half of the bracket, Colorado State wrecked Utah State for the second time in two weeks. That sets up a final between two teams that might need the automatic bid. Boise State would have a stronger at-large case with a loss, which means all other bubblers should be Broncos fans on Saturday night.
The Mountain West is not the only bid stealer candidate, although no 2025 version of NC State has emerged from the power conferences. In the top five leagues, the highest seeds all won their games on Friday in the ACC, Big East and SEC, and the winners of minor upsets in the Big Ten and Big 12 — coming via Wisconsin and Arizona — are already headed towards high NCAA Tournament seeds.
Instead, the focus turns to the American, the A-10 and the Big West, where potential thieves still remain. Memphis narrowly avoided a loss to Wichita State in the AAC quarterfinals on Friday, and the Tigers are every bubble team’s favorite horse this weekend. If any other champion emerges in that league, the at-large pool will shrink.
The A-10 and Big West are trickier. VCU (if it does not win the auto-bid) and the loser of Saturday night’s final between UC San Diego and UC Irvine are true bubble candidates.
Notably, this year’s selection committee actually has a majority of representatives from mid-major schools/conferences. That may not matter in the end, but it does provide hope that VCU or a second Big West team could still sneak in without their respective league’s automatic bid.
For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below.
- Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
- Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
- In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
- On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration — a win away from being a win away.
- Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
- Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement since Thursday
Up to Lock: None
Up to Should Be In: None
Up to In the Mix: None
Added to On the Fringe: None
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: None
Dropped from On the Fringe: None
Earned automatic bid: None
ACC
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: North Carolina, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: SMU
In The Mix
North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-12 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: In desperate need of a Q1 win, UNC looked thoroughly overmatched against a Cooper Flagg-less Duke for 25 minutes. Hubert Davis’ Heels refused to roll over, though, and they rallied back from a 24-point deficit to cut the lead to one in the waning seconds. With a chance to tie the game, though, the Heels were whistled for a lane violation on a free throw, and the comeback effort fell short. UNC must now hope that a resume that features a 1-12 record in Quadrant 1 games is enough. Will the Heels’ name brand and solid metrics sway the committee? It feels unlikely given their terrible winning percentage against top competition, but crazier things have happened.
Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Decent 8-9 record against the top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The door slammed shut for Wake Forest on Thursday. The Demon Deacons successfully dragged UNC into a half court slugfest, but they could not make the necessary plays late in a close loss against a fierce bubble rival. Wake’s resume metric average now lies outside the top 50, so that is no no longer a key strength on a resume that has little else to offer. Barring a wild pro-Demon Deacons faction on the NCAA selection committee, it is hard to picture Wake getting into the dance at this point.
GO DEEPER
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Big 12
Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: Baylor
In the Mix: West Virginia
On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU
Should Be In
Baylor
What They Need: The Bears nearly completed a monumental comeback against Texas Tech on Thursday night, but they came up just short as VJ Edgecombe’s buzzer-beating runner banked harmlessly off the rim. Baylor is now in the bubble mix, though the Bears’ bona fides — sparkling quality metrics, solid resume metrics, five Q1 wins, 11-13 record against the top two quadrants — all point towards being in the field. The biggest risk is if the committee goes rogue and cites the version of Baylor without injured center Josh Ojianwuna (4-6 overall, no Q1 victories) is different enough to not warrant inclusion. I do not expect that to be the case.
In the Mix
West Virginia
Profile Strengths: Six Q1 wins, including four in Q1A, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Metrics are squarely in bubble land, 13 total losses.
Looking Ahead: After careful reexamination, I’ve moved West Virginia back down a category. Their metrics are on par with the rest of the bubble, and the committee has the “out” of devaluing a couple of the Mountaineers’ early wins since Tucker DeVries played in them before his season-ending upper-body injury. Fortunately for WVU, the Big 12 tournament loss to Colorado was in Quad 2, so it is not a “bad” loss on the resume, but it’s a worrisome closing statement to the Mountaineers’ at-large argument. Six Q1 wins and no bad losses may still be enough, but WVU will be nervously rooting against bid stealers until Sunday.
Big East
Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: None
In The Mix
Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: Heartbreak at Madison Square Garden for Xavier. The Musketeers led Marquette for most of the first 35 minutes, including a 14-point cushion with 17 minutes left in the game. But they could not hold off the tenacious Golden Eagles, and despite 38 points from Ryan Conwell, Xavier missed out on a massive Q1 opportunity. Sean Miller’s team is now at the mercy of the selection committee — and of the quadrant cutoffs. The Musketeers need UConn to end in the top 30 (currently 32nd) to add a second Q1 win to their resume. They would also love for the committee to value that five of Xavier’s eight Q2 wins are in the “high Q2” area (home vs. NET 31-55, neutral vs. NET 51-75, road at NET 76-100). Xavier is as bubbly as it gets, and the wait until Sunday will be excruciating.
Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State
On the Fringe: Nebraska
In The Mix
Indiana
Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-13 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: The wait is on for Indiana. The Hoosiers could not get over the hump against Oregon on Thursday afternoon, and they will now fret over their fate until the end of the weekend. Indiana has beaten every opponent it should beat, and it played up a couple of crucial times. The ultra high-end road win at Michigan State looms especially large as one of the best wins of anyone on the bubble. If I had to guess, this is a First Four squad, but a lot can still change between now and Sunday.
Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two games over .500 overall, 9-15 record against Q1/Q2.
Looking Ahead: Oh, boy. Ohio State is in real trouble after dropping its Big Ten tournament opener to Iowa. Although that game in itself is no issue (just a Q2 defeat), it put the Buckeyes in the terrifying position of being just 17-15 overall, two games over .500. No team so close to neutral has ever received an at-large bid, meaning that Ohio State needs a mini-miracle to go dancing now. Based on the other strengths of this resume, we’ll keep OSU in the mix, but some committee members may automatically eliminate the Buckeyes at this point.
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SEC
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Arkansas
In the Mix: Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None
Should Be In
Arkansas
What They Need: Arkansas let Lock status slip away against Ole Miss on Thursday afternoon. With the game tied at 80, Trevon Brazile’s go-ahead free throws with under 10 seconds remaining both bricked off the iron, and the Rebels’ Sean Pedulla drilled a 3 just before the buzzer to send Ole Miss onward to face Auburn. As a result, the Razorbacks will be tense until they see their name revealed on Selection Sunday. That is not a guarantee, but the Hogs’ five Q1 wins and overall clean resume (zero bad losses) should get them to Dayton for the First Four, at the very least.
In The Mix
Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, competitive metrics, 11-12 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, conference record eyesore?
Looking Ahead: The Sooners hope to never see Otega Oweh again. The former Sooner ripped his old team’s heart out again late on Thursday night, and Oklahoma took another gut-wrenching one-point loss at the buzzer. The Sooners have clearly proven themselves at the highest level via seven Q1 wins, many of which were away from home. Porter Moser, Jeremiah Fears and the rest of the squad have a long wait until Selection Sunday, but as long as the committee doesn’t balk at a 6-12 conference record in a league with 12 or 13 other NCAA Tournament teams, this profile looks good enough to dance.
Texas
Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, no bad losses, solid quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 10-15 record against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Texas could not make it a trio of key wins in Nashville, falling to Tennessee on Friday. The Longhorns will now sit nervously in the lobby of the Bubble Hotel until Sunday evening. Texas’ seven Q1 wins are tied for the most of anyone on the bubble, but their 15 total losses are also tied for the most. The Horns’ awful nonconference strength of schedule could be the factor that keeps them out of the dance; the selection committee has frequently cited that number when justifying leaving teams out. Texas appears to be one of the closest teams to the cutline, in or out, with a divisive resume of clear strengths and weaknesses.
GO DEEPER
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The Rest
Locks: Drake (auto-bid), Gonzaga (auto-bid), Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Boise State, Colorado State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco
In The Mix
Boise State
Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: One loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Looking Ahead: The Broncos got another massive victory against the field on Friday, knocking off Mountain West top seed New Mexico for the second time this season. That supplements the strong work the Broncos did in the nonconference against Clemson and Saint Mary’s. Having a profile that is not built purely on Mountain West success is crucial. Boise State has now won 11 of its past 13, and a 12th win would guarantee an NCAA Tournament appearance via the Mountain West’s auto-bid. Should the Broncos lose, though, they become one of the most bubbly squads in the country.
Colorado State
Profile Strengths: Strong 9-7 record against the top two quadrants, improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, very little of note in the nonconference.
Looking Ahead: The Rams’ late-season surge continued on Friday night. They blitzed Utah State 83-72, reprising their 27-point domination of the Aggies on March 1. Colorado State’s resume is still a fringe case at this point, so taking a loss to Boise State in the title game would probably leave the Rams on the outside of the field. All of CSU’s best work has been in the Mountain West, which is typically frowned upon by a committee that emphasizes nonconference performance. Niko Medved’s team almost certainly still needs to win the automatic bid on Saturday night, but credit to the Rams for making this interesting.
Dayton
Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, 3-6 record vs. Q2, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Flyers’ late push for an at-large bid likely ran out of gas on Friday with an overtime loss to Saint Joseph’s. Dayton’s metrics were already outside of typical at-large territory, and adding another loss before the A-10 title game appears to be too much to withstand, especially with a poor 2-6 record against Q2. Flyers faithful can cling to desperate hope before Sunday, but Dayton’s name appearing in the bracket would be a shock.
San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-8 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs fell to Boise State in their Mountain West tournament opener, managing a meager 52 points in a disappointing offensive effort. Not only did that add another loss to SDSU’s ledger, but it also gave the bubble adversary Broncos an extra Q1 win. SDSU’s neutral-site win over Houston remains a crown jewel, and SDSU did sweep Boise during the regular season. A neutral-site win over Creighton has aged well, too. But this is a truly nebulous case, and SDSU will join the chorus of teams ardently cheering against bid stealers over the next few days.
VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, 11-5 road/neutral record, 7-5 against Q1+Q2.
Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: VCU handled its business against St. Bonaventure on Friday and crept closer to the Atlantic 10 automatic bid. The Rams’ at-large resume also received a slight boost, as the Bonnies are barely inside the NET top 100 as of this writing, making it a Q2 victory. That will not be the case in the semifinals; Loyola Chicago is just outside the top 100. VCU would be a lightning rod for discussion if it needs an at-large, and the Rams would only feel safe if they can win the A-10 tournament on Sunday.
UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 18-3 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock.
Looking Ahead: The Anteaters advanced to the Big West title game on Friday night, using a second half offensive explosion to defeat a feisty Cal Poly squad. They may not have a gaudy group of wins, but it is impossible for the committee to ignore a Division I-record 18 wins away from home. Re-read that: a Division I-record 18 wins away from home. A 4-2 record against the top two quadrants also stands out, and though this is not a conventional at-large profile, the selection committee could choose to reward a mid-major that won all over the country in the nonconference. If an at-large bid is needed after a loss to UC San Diego on Saturday, UC Irvine’s resume is stronger than you might think.
UC San Diego
Profile Strengths: Q1A road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, 16 wins away from home.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The Tritons trailed UC Santa Barbara at halftime on Friday night, but they quickly put that in the past with a dominant second stanza. An 18-point semifinal win has UCSD on the precipice of its first NCAA Tournament bid, but if Eric Olen’s team needs an at-large, it will be an extremely divisive case. The Tritons can end all discussion with a win on Saturday night, but if not, they will carry the banner for mid-major at-large hopes. The Q1A road win at Utah State should stand out, and 29 overall wins (16 away from home) backs up that impressive result. More to come here on Sunday morning, depending on the Big West title game’s result.
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(Top photos: Isaiah J. Downing, Matt Lunsford / Imagn Images)
