The Midwest Region features an intriguing mix of NCAA Tournament staples with high expectations and upstarts with the capability to bust brackets across the country.
That should make for a fascinating first weekend because six of the top eight seeds — No. 1 Houston (Sweet 16), No. 2 Tennessee (Elite Eight), No. 4 Purdue (national runner-up), No. 5 Clemson (Elite Eight), No. 6 Illinois (Elite Eight) and No. 8 Gonzaga (Sweet 16) — all reached at least the second weekend a year ago. Third-seeded Kentucky and seventh-seeded UCLA, traditional bluebloods with 19 combined national titles, hope to make some noise.
But if you’re looking for an underdog, this region offers a couple of good ones from which to choose. No. 12 McNeese, which reached the NCAA Tournament out of the Southland Conference last year, is 57-10 in two seasons under coach Will Wade. No. 13 High Point, meanwhile, has a top-25 offense and is making its first-ever tourney appearance.
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Read on for a full rundown of the region.
1. Houston 30-4 (19-1 Big 12)
Coach: Kelvin Sampson (26-20 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: L.J. Cryer (First-team All-Big 12)
BetMGM title odds: +600
Sweet 16 projected chance: 71.4%
Final Four projected chance: 35.2%
Houston’s floor is as high as any, which has been the case for the last six years. It has won back-to-back Big 12 regular-season titles, won the Big 12 tournament and has reached the Sweet 16 in the last four NCAA Tournaments. The Cougars likely would be coming off their second Final Four and third Elite Eight in four years if Jamal Shead didn’t hurt his knee. On paper, this group looks like the best team Sampson has had at Houston heading into the tournament. Keep an eye on the status of J’Wan Roberts. He missed the last two games of the Big 12 tournament with an ankle injury, but he was out of his boot during the title game. Houston’s efficiency margin, according to KenPom, was better than any team’s efficiency margin last season not named UConn. With Milos Uzan filling Shead’s void on offense, the Cougars are as good of a bet to make the Final Four as anyone. If they get to San Antonio, the Alamodome will feel like a home game. — Rob Dauster
2. Tennessee 27-7 (12-6 SEC)
Coach: Rick Barnes (30-28 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Chaz Lanier (Second-team All-SEC)
BetMGM title odds: +1400
Sweet 16 projected chance: 76.6%
Final Four projected chance: 28.0%
With noteworthy nonconference wins against Louisville, Baylor and Illinois and its performance in the rough and rugged SEC, Tennessee is a team capable of climbing high. But its gross inconsistencies on offense could have it quickly tumbling down the mountainside. Lanier’s scoring, Zakai Zeigler’s distribution skills and Jordan Gainey’s game-to-game contributions will determine how long the Volunteers survive. Their suffocating defense always will keep them within striking distance, but if the bricks mount, Barnes’ widely-perceived-but-unfair tournament struggles will be exacerbated. — Brad Evans
3. Kentucky 22-11 (10-8 SEC)
Coach: Mark Pope (0-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Lamont Butler (4.3 assists per game)
BetMGM title odds: +4000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 42.1%
Final Four projected chance: 5.2%
Given their newfound defensive mettle, the Wildcats have potential to make a March run because they made these gains without Butler, one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders. The injuries also forced Travis Perry and Trent Noah to play more minutes, and the two freshmen can be effective bench weapons. The risk is that one hit could jar Butler’s shoulder and turn him back into a spectator, but it’s a risk worth taking. When Kentucky is right, its offense is as dangerous as any in the country. — Dauster
Kentucky guard Lamont Butler has been battling through a shoulder injury. (Steve Roberts / Imagn Images)
4. Purdue 22-11 (13-7 Big Ten)
Coach: Matt Painter (22-16 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Braden Smith (Big Ten Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +8000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 37.3%
Final Four projected chance: 4.8%
Last year’s runner-up is highly unlikely to blaze a similar trail. It simply doesn’t have the trees to compete deep into the tourney. Smith is brilliant. His savviness and scoring say Purdue is no pushover. Still, Painter’s crew must smoke the scoreboard to conquer its softhearted defense. In other words, one average shooting night could mean elimination. — Evans
5. Clemson 27-6 (18-2 ACC)
Coach: Brad Brownell (6-7 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ian Schieffelin (Second-team All-ACC)
BetMGM title odds: +6000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 48.7%
Final Four projected chance: 8.0%
I’m in on Clemson being a real threat to make noise. The Tigers made the Elite Eight last season, and a number of the pieces from that core remain. The players know how intense the pressure can be and what it takes to win in March. One criticism is that these Tigers don’t do anything elite. While that may be true, they are elite at being well-rounded. There isn’t a specific way to beat them. They can guard. They can protect the rim. They’re difficult to run offense against. They can score inside. They hit 3-pointers. They can win at the end of a clock. This is a team capable of pulling off an upset and making a run into the second weekend, if not further. — Dauster
6. Illinois 21-12 (12-8 Big Ten)
Coach: Brad Underwood (7-8 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kasparas Jakucionis (Third-team All-Big Ten)
BetMGM title odds: +10000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 40.4%
Final Four projected chance: 5.5%
Enigmatic best describes Illinois. When bringing its best, it can convincingly flatten opponents. But when complacently chucking 3-pointers and not staunchly defending, the Illini are susceptible to a knockout. The Illini recaptured their early season mojo during the final two weeks of the regular season. Most importantly, key reserve Morez Johnson Jr. returned to action in the Big Ten tournament. With confidence regained and its baseline talents, Illinois is possibly the most dangerous mid-seeded team in the tournament. — Evans
7. UCLA 22-10 (13-7 Big Ten)
Coach: Mick Cronin (15-14 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tyler Bilodeau (Third-team All-Big Ten)
BetMGM title odds: +10000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 15.9%
Final Four projected chance: 2.3%
UCLA mostly performed well in its inaugural Big Ten season. The program’s rich history and brand name will attract bracket novices, but its defensive shortcomings likely cap its potential. Aidy Mara has boosted the Bruins’ interior play, but when they’re matched against teams with a formidable frontcourt, Cronin is bound to be shouting expletives. The mid-seed has a second-weekend upside. If it advances beyond that, Bill Walton will ride high on Cloud Nine above. — Evans
8. Gonzaga 25-8 (14-4 WCC)
Coach: Mark Few (43-24 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ryan Nembhard (First-team All-WCC)
BetMGM title odds: +5000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 24.0%
Final Four projected chance: 8.0%
Gonzaga is one of the toughest teams to figure out in the field because it’s an outlier. It’s a top-10 team according to the predictive metrics (including KenPom). The Zags rank outside the top 40 according to the resume metrics, and there has never been a squad that has had that much of a difference between the metrics to evaluate how good it is and what it accomplished (like who it beat). It goes against every fiber of my being to side against KenPom, but I tend to think the resume metrics are correct. I believe this is the year that Few’s Sweet 16 streak comes to an end. But I said the same thing, for the same reason, last year. — Dauster
Gonzaga captured the West Coast Conference tournament title, but can it extend its streak of six straight Sweet 16 appearances? (Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
9. Georgia 20-12 (8-10 SEC)
Coach: Mike White (6-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Asa Newell (SEC All-Freshman Team)
BetMGM title odds: +30000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 4.6%
Final Four projected chance: 0.7%
Georgia could be a dark horse to make the Sweet 16 if it cleans up the sloppy play, but those issues aren’t limited to one player and could be hard to fix. Georgia showed flashes in the SEC, but it displayed inconsistency as well. But stars tend to show up in March, and Newell is a bona fide superstar. This may be one of the biggest boom-or-bust teams in the field. — Sam Lance
10. Utah State 26-7 (15-5 MWC)
Coach: Jerrod Calhoun (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Mason Falslev (First-team All-Mountain West)
BetMGM title odds: +35000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 6.3%
Final Four projected chance: 0.5%
Utah State’s zone can take opponents out of a rhythm and make them uncomfortable. That look — a hybrid somewhere between a 2-3 and a 1-1-3 — does exactly that because it’s unique. That zone and Falslev’s super-human anticipation are why the Aggies force turnovers on more than 20 percent of their defensive possessions, and those turnovers are why Utah State is one of the best teams in transition. There are ways the Aggies can be exploited, but this is not a team to take lightly. — Dauster
11. Texas 19-15 (6-12 SEC)
Coach: Rodney Terry (4-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tre Johnson (Second-team All-SEC)
BetMGM title odds: +35000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 4.8%
Final Four projected chance: 0.3%
Texas is capable of beating really good teams. It has wins over Missouri, Texas A&M and Kentucky, three teams with second-weekend potential. Johnson and Tramon Mark combined for 58 points against Kentucky. Johnson went for 30 against the Aggies. The Longhorns have enough talent to pull an upset against a higher seed if one of their scorers catches fire. But I have a hard time envisioning a scenario during which that happens two or three games in a row. Take Texas to the second weekend at your own risk. — Dauster
11. Xavier 21-11 (13-7 Big East)
Coach: Sean Miller (21-12 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Zach Freemantle (Second-team All-Big East)
BetMGM title odds: +50000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 7.6%
Final Four projected chance: 0.5%
Momentum is often one heck of a postseason elixir. The X-Men enter the tournament influenced by it. Yes, they sorely lacked quality wins, but their divine offensive execution on the regular season’s back nine collected numerous birdies. It’s buyable the Muskies leave a divot or three in non-believers’ brackets. According to KenPom, they have the most experienced team in the entire field next to Kansas. The never-gets-carded group shouldn’t be underestimated. — Evans
12. McNeese 27-6 (19-1 Southland)
Coach: Will Wade (4-6 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Javohn Garcia (Southland Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 7.6%
Final Four projected chance: 0.4%
Alyn Breed was supposed to be the difference maker. The 6-foot-3 scoring guard averaged a team-best 17.5 points through two games before a season-ending injury. Without him, the Cowboys have been a bit limited in what they can do in the halfcourt. They pound the offensive glass and are terrific at scoring off turnovers, but the big concern is what happens when they can’t get the easy baskets. Are they efficient enough in the halfcourt? Do they have someone they can trust at the end of the shot clock? I think the answer is yes. This team can, and should, win a game in the NCAA Tournament. — Dauster
Will Wade and McNeese are back in the NCAA Tournament after losing to Gonzaga in the first round last season. (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
13. High Point 29-5 (14-2 Big South)
Coach: Alan Huss (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kezza Giffa (First-team All-Big South)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 6.3%
Final Four projected chance: 0.3%
Giffa and D’Maurian Williams make for a dangerous one-two perimeter punch. Bobby Pettiford was a promising freshman at Kansas once upon a time. Juslin Bodo Bodo dunks everything around the rim. And Kimani Hamilton, like Giffa, is a first-team all-league player. There are weapons up and down the roster, but the same thing was said last year about McNeese, which got obliterated in the first round by Gonzaga. High Point has the offensive firepower to win a game or two in March, but if you are a skeptic, your doubts are not unwarranted. — Dauster
14. Troy 23-10 (13-5 Sun Belt)
Coach: Scott Cross (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tayton Conerway (Sun Belt Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 5.2%
Final Four projected chance: 0.2%
Troy is a viable Cinderella candidate. During its final 12 games, Troy ranked a laudable No. 83 in overall efficiency, according to BartTorvik. Deep, cohesive and a menace on the offensive glass, where it generates a second chance on 38.6 percent of its possessions, Troy punishes teams weak in the post. Additionally, it’s rather unyielding defensively. Since Feb. 1, it slotted No. 6 nationally in 2-point percentage defense, giving up a mere 43.6 percent. Although the Trojans take a lot of 3-pointers, they only converted 29.9 percent from the arc. But if Conerway, Myles Rigsby and Thomas Dowd catch fire along the perimeter, they could don a glass slipper. — Evans
15. Wofford 19-15 (10-8 SoCon)
Coach: Dwight Perry (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Corey Tripp (Second-team All-SoCon)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 1.2%
Final Four projected chance: 0.04%
The Terriers won the Southern Conference tournament as the No. 6 seed, but don’t be fooled into thinking this team isn’t capable. The SoCon is one of the better true mid-major leagues, and Wofford won 11 of its final 13 games away from home. That includes wins at Saint Louis, East Tennessee State and Furman. It starts with the veteran inside-out duo of Tripp and Kyler Filewich. Tripp is the star, a three-year starter who came back for a chance to lead Wofford to the tournament in his senior season. Filewich took a leap this year, and at 6-9, 250 pounds, he’s a playmaking five who allows Wofford’s spread offense to thrive. They have a top-70 offense, according to KenPom. The Terriers shoot a ton of 3s, and on the nights where the Baileys, Justin and Dillon (not related), are making them, Perry’s crew can be a tough out. Teams with good guard play that control tempo and make 3s are the ones that make magic happen this month. — Dauster
16. SIUE 22-11 (13-7 OVC)
Coach: Brian Barone (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ray’Sean Taylor (OVC Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 0.1%
Final Four projected chance: 0.0%
The Cougars shake their tails in the NCAA Tournament field for the first time in program history. Barone’s bunch relies heavily on its stout defense. On the season, it’s an impressive No. 35 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, allowing only 46.3 percent from 2 and 33.3 percent from 3. Contesting shots is the Cougars’ game. Putting the ball through the basket, however, is a chore. Averaging a paltry 1.024 points per possession, SIUE is worse than No. 250 in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also leave points at the line, shooting a wretched 67.6 percent on freebies. Way back in November, the Cougars only briefly challenged Illinois and Indiana, eventually losing by 32 and 19 points, respectively. Taylor can rain buckets — he scored 30-plus in three games this year — but the senior guard can’t do it alone. This No. 16 seed is no Fairleigh Dickinson. — Evans
(Top photo of Cryer, left, and Lanier: Candice Ward, Luke Hales/Getty Images)
