Welcome to The Athletic’s men’s NCAA Tournament big board. If you’re looking for a thorough breakdown of all 68 teams in the men’s NCAA Tournament, congratulations! You’re in the right place. These 68 capsules provide everything you need to know about every team in this year’s men’s tournament, all in the name of one goal: owning your bracket pool.
We teamed up with The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice, in a joining of writers, editors, experts and analysts. Your brackets mean that much to us.
If you’re looking for more coverage, we have it all (upsets, model simulations, printable brackets, more). We’ll have analysis on all 68 teams for the women’s tournament after that bracket reveal later on Sunday as well.
A few quick notes on how to use the board: You can choose “expand all” to open all the capsules at once for an easy read, or you can open them individually by clicking or tapping on the headers. We created three filters (seed, conference and region) to help you navigate to more specific areas you may want to read.
“Sweet 16 projected chance” is the percentage chance that Austin Mock’s model gives a team to make the Sweet 16. “Final Four projected chance” is the percentage chance that his model gives a team to make the Final Four.
Enjoy, good luck, and may your brackets be filled with green this March Madness.
All odds are from BetMGM and are as of Sunday. You can buy tickets to all tournament games here. You can watch the women’s tournament and a lot of the men’s tournament on Fubo (try for free).
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Strengths: Everything. Auburn is not only one of the two best teams in the country. It may also be the most complete team. It starts with Johni Broome, the fifth-year senior center and National Player of the Year front-runner. He is a massive, play-making five who controls the paint on both ends of the floor. He can win games as a scorer, passer, rebounder and defender. If he’s held in check, the Tigers get the ball to senior scorers Miles Kelly and Denver Jones for open looks coming off screens. If they’re shut down, Tahaad Pettiford and Chad Baker-Mazara are two of the best isolation scorers and tough-shot makers we’ve seen in years. And if all else fails, there isn’t a player in America who has improved more this season than Chaney Johnson. Auburn boasts one of the most efficient offenses with a roster loaded with athletic and versatile wings, a pair of powerful centers and one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders (Jones).
Weaknesses: Auburn doesn’t have a weakness on the court, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have flaws. Despite featuring nine seniors — and multiple fifth- and sixth-year seniors — in their rotation, the Tigers sometimes lack emotional maturity. Baker-Mazara is the biggest culprit. He’s received multiple technical and flagrant fouls this season, and he got ejected early in last year’s first-round loss to Yale. In the defeat to Florida in early February, Auburn rolled over and took a beating by a team challenging it for a league title and a No. 1 seed. It can lack leadership at times, which is the tiniest of nitpicks for a squad entering the dance with a 27-4 record. And when this is the biggest weakness, it tells you how good the Tigers really are.
Outlook: It’s national title or bust for Auburn. Fair or not, when you spend months as the No. 1 team in the nation and the No. 1 team in all of the metrics, the expectation is that you prove it in March. The Tigers can be beaten — two other title contenders picked them off this season — but no one in the country played a more top-loaded schedule than them. They appear too big to fail with the number of ways they can win games. If Auburn is not in San Antonio for the Final Four, I will be shocked.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Everything. Auburn is not only one of the two best teams in the country. It may also be the most complete team. It starts with Johni Broome, the fifth-year senior center and National Player of the Year front-runner. He is a massive, play-making five who controls the paint on both ends of the floor. He can win games as a scorer, passer, rebounder and defender. If he’s held in check, the Tigers get the ball to senior scorers Miles Kelly and Denver Jones for open looks coming off screens. If they’re shut down, Tahaad Pettiford and Chad Baker-Mazara are two of the best isolation scorers and tough-shot makers we’ve seen in years. And if all else fails, there isn’t a player in America who has improved more this season than Chaney Johnson. Auburn boasts one of the most efficient offenses with a roster loaded with athletic and versatile wings, a pair of powerful centers and one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders (Jones).
Weaknesses: Auburn doesn’t have a weakness on the court, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have flaws. Despite featuring nine seniors — and multiple fifth- and sixth-year seniors — in their rotation, the Tigers sometimes lack emotional maturity. Baker-Mazara is the biggest culprit. He’s received multiple technical and flagrant fouls this season, and he got ejected early in last year’s first-round loss to Yale. In the defeat to Florida in early February, Auburn rolled over and took a beating by a team challenging it for a league title and a No. 1 seed. It can lack leadership at times, which is the tiniest of nitpicks for a squad entering the dance with a 27-4 record. And when this is the biggest weakness, it tells you how good the Tigers really are.
Outlook: It’s national title or bust for Auburn. Fair or not, when you spend months as the No. 1 team in the nation and the No. 1 team in all of the metrics, the expectation is that you prove it in March. The Tigers can be beaten — two other title contenders picked them off this season — but no one in the country played a more top-loaded schedule than them. They appear too big to fail with the number of ways they can win games. If Auburn is not in San Antonio for the Final Four, I will be shocked.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Everything. Auburn is not only one of the two best teams in the country. It may also be the most complete team. It starts with Johni Broome, the fifth-year senior center and National Player of the Year front-runner. He is a massive, play-making five who controls the paint on both ends of the floor. He can win games as a scorer, passer, rebounder and defender. If he’s held in check, the Tigers get the ball to senior scorers Miles Kelly and Denver Jones for open looks coming off screens. If they’re shut down, Tahaad Pettiford and Chad Baker-Mazara are two of the best isolation scorers and tough-shot makers we’ve seen in years. And if all else fails, there isn’t a player in America who has improved more this season than Chaney Johnson. Auburn boasts one of the most efficient offenses with a roster loaded with athletic and versatile wings, a pair of powerful centers and one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders (Jones).
Weaknesses: Auburn doesn’t have a weakness on the court, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have flaws. Despite featuring nine seniors — and multiple fifth- and sixth-year seniors — in their rotation, the Tigers sometimes lack emotional maturity. Baker-Mazara is the biggest culprit. He’s received multiple technical and flagrant fouls this season, and he got ejected early in last year’s first-round loss to Yale. In the defeat to Florida in early February, Auburn rolled over and took a beating by a team challenging it for a league title and a No. 1 seed. It can lack leadership at times, which is the tiniest of nitpicks for a squad entering the dance with a 27-4 record. And when this is the biggest weakness, it tells you how good the Tigers really are.
Outlook: It’s national title or bust for Auburn. Fair or not, when you spend months as the No. 1 team in the nation and the No. 1 team in all of the metrics, the expectation is that you prove it in March. The Tigers can be beaten — two other title contenders picked them off this season — but no one in the country played a more top-loaded schedule than them. They appear too big to fail with the number of ways they can win games. If Auburn is not in San Antonio for the Final Four, I will be shocked.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Auburn is the best team in college basketball with the best player in college basketball.
Record: 28-5 (15-3 SEC)
Coach: Bruce Pearl (17-13 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Johni Broome (SEC Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
98.9%
Final Four projected chance
40.4%
Strengths: As counterintuitive as it may be for a team excelling as one of the most efficient offenses in years, Duke’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball. The smallest player in its starting lineup is 6-foot-6 Tyrese Proctor. The smallest player in its rotation is 6-foot-5 Caleb Foster. The Blue Devils have one of the best rim protectors in 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach, and when Maliq Brown is healthy and playing the five, no team in the country is better at switching. They are second nationally in average length of possession defensively because you cannot run offense against them, and the reason why opponents struggle is all-world freshman Cooper Flagg. Flagg is a defensive weapon who’s tough and physical and can guard up or down, and he takes pride in doing work on that end of the floor. His best attribute is his ability to be a great team player who will do all the little things needed to win. When ACC play began, he became an elite offensive weapon, shooting over 40 percent on 3-pointers and taking over games as a scorer and a distributor.
Weaknesses: For all of those glowing words about Flagg, he injured his ankle in the ACC tournament. Duke won it without him, but Flagg’s status has become one of the biggest storylines of the NCAA Tournament. With or without Flagg, the concern with any squad built around elite freshmen is that it is too young. Only two freshmen-dominant teams have won the national championship: 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke. Inexperience is a valid concern with these Blue Devils based on how their season has gone. Their two non-conference losses were due to a lack of execution down the stretch with Flagg’s late turnover against Kentucky and a string of poor possessions late against Kansas. As good as Duke is, it will have to win games deep in the NCAA Tournament in crunch time. Can the Blue Devils do it?
Outlook: It’s national title or bust for Duke. It almost always is with that program, but when you’ve been ranked as a top-two team on KenPom all season with the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, winning a championship is the expectation. Duke has one of the country’s premier defenses, with the likely National Player of the Year leading the way, and its role players fully embrace the job they are being asked to do. Auburn is the favorite to win the title. Duke is not that far behind.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: As counterintuitive as it may be for a team excelling as one of the most efficient offenses in years, Duke’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball. The smallest player in its starting lineup is 6-foot-6 Tyrese Proctor. The smallest player in its rotation is 6-foot-5 Caleb Foster. The Blue Devils have one of the best rim protectors in 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach, and when Maliq Brown is healthy and playing the five, no team in the country is better at switching. They are second nationally in average length of possession defensively because you cannot run offense against them, and the reason why opponents struggle is all-world freshman Cooper Flagg. Flagg is a defensive weapon who’s tough and physical and can guard up or down, and he takes pride in doing work on that end of the floor. His best attribute is his ability to be a great team player who will do all the little things needed to win. When ACC play began, he became an elite offensive weapon, shooting over 40 percent on 3-pointers and taking over games as a scorer and a distributor.
Weaknesses: For all of those glowing words about Flagg, he injured his ankle in the ACC tournament. Duke won it without him, but Flagg’s status has become one of the biggest storylines of the NCAA Tournament. With or without Flagg, the concern with any squad built around elite freshmen is that it is too young. Only two freshmen-dominant teams have won the national championship: 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke. Inexperience is a valid concern with these Blue Devils based on how their season has gone. Their two non-conference losses were due to a lack of execution down the stretch with Flagg’s late turnover against Kentucky and a string of poor possessions late against Kansas. As good as Duke is, it will have to win games deep in the NCAA Tournament in crunch time. Can the Blue Devils do it?
Outlook: It’s national title or bust for Duke. It almost always is with that program, but when you’ve been ranked as a top-two team on KenPom all season with the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, winning a championship is the expectation. Duke has one of the country’s premier defenses, with the likely National Player of the Year leading the way, and its role players fully embrace the job they are being asked to do. Auburn is the favorite to win the title. Duke is not that far behind.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: As counterintuitive as it may be for a team excelling as one of the most efficient offenses in years, Duke’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball. The smallest player in its starting lineup is 6-foot-6 Tyrese Proctor. The smallest player in its rotation is 6-foot-5 Caleb Foster. The Blue Devils have one of the best rim protectors in 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach, and when Maliq Brown is healthy and playing the five, no team in the country is better at switching. They are second nationally in average length of possession defensively because you cannot run offense against them, and the reason why opponents struggle is all-world freshman Cooper Flagg. Flagg is a defensive weapon who’s tough and physical and can guard up or down, and he takes pride in doing work on that end of the floor. His best attribute is his ability to be a great team player who will do all the little things needed to win. When ACC play began, he became an elite offensive weapon, shooting over 40 percent on 3-pointers and taking over games as a scorer and a distributor.
Weaknesses: For all of those glowing words about Flagg, he injured his ankle in the ACC tournament. Duke won it without him, but Flagg’s status has become one of the biggest storylines of the NCAA Tournament. With or without Flagg, the concern with any squad built around elite freshmen is that it is too young. Only two freshmen-dominant teams have won the national championship: 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke. Inexperience is a valid concern with these Blue Devils based on how their season has gone. Their two non-conference losses were due to a lack of execution down the stretch with Flagg’s late turnover against Kentucky and a string of poor possessions late against Kansas. As good as Duke is, it will have to win games deep in the NCAA Tournament in crunch time. Can the Blue Devils do it?
Outlook: It’s national title or bust for Duke. It almost always is with that program, but when you’ve been ranked as a top-two team on KenPom all season with the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, winning a championship is the expectation. Duke has one of the country’s premier defenses, with the likely National Player of the Year leading the way, and its role players fully embrace the job they are being asked to do. Auburn is the favorite to win the title. Duke is not that far behind.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Cooper Flagg is college hoops’ most famous player, but Duke isn’t a one-man team.
Record: 31-3 (19-1 ACC)
Coach: Jon Scheyer (4-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Cooper Flagg (ACC Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
87.3%
Final Four projected chance
52.9%
Strengths: Houston does three things at an elite level that great teams need: It is top-15 nationally in offensive rebounding rate, ranks top-20 nationally in defensive turnover rate and shoots better than 40 percent on 3-pointers. Put another way: The Cougars maximize the number of possessions they get in a game better than anyone and are elite at the most efficient shot in the sport. Also, they are incredible at defending the paint and have a never-ending assembly of 6-foot-8 junkyard dogs with 7-foot-5 wingspans. They have the best culture in college basketball right now, and to a point, the name on the back of the jersey doesn’t even matter. They are the epitome of “next man up.”
Weaknesses: If there is one concern about Houston, it’s the lack of a go-to guy at the end of the clock. L.J. Cryer is one of the best tough-shot makers, but those shots aren’t always going to go in. J’Wan Roberts has developed an effective jump hook going to his left, but that’s not the most efficient shot. The key will be Milos Uzan, who really came into form in the final six weeks of the regular season. It took the Oklahoma transfer some time to learn Kelvin Sampson and for Sampson to learn Uzan. It’s working now, and since Uzan accepted being a little more selfish, the Cougars have looked like a very real national title threat.
Outlook: Houston’s floor is as high as any team in the country, which has been the case for the last six years. It has won back-to-back Big 12 regular-season titles after moving to the league from the AAC, won the Big 12 tournament and has reached the Sweet 16 in the last four NCAA Tournaments. The Cougars would likely be coming off their second Final Four and third Elite Eight in the last four years if Jamal Shead didn’t hurt his knee. On paper, this group looks like the best team Sampson has had at Houston heading into the tournament. Keep an eye on the status of Roberts. He missed the last two games of the Big 12 tournament with an ankle injury, but he was out of his boot during the title game. Houston’s efficiency margin, according to KenPom, was better than any team’s efficiency margin last season not named UConn. With Uzan filling Shead’s void on the offensive end, the Cougars are as good of a bet to make the Final Four as anyone. If they get to San Antonio, the Alamodome will feel like a home game. Houston can absolutely win the national championship.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Houston does three things at an elite level that great teams need: It is top-15 nationally in offensive rebounding rate, ranks top-20 nationally in defensive turnover rate and shoots better than 40 percent on 3-pointers. Put another way: The Cougars maximize the number of possessions they get in a game better than anyone and are elite at the most efficient shot in the sport. Also, they are incredible at defending the paint and have a never-ending assembly of 6-foot-8 junkyard dogs with 7-foot-5 wingspans. They have the best culture in college basketball right now, and to a point, the name on the back of the jersey doesn’t even matter. They are the epitome of “next man up.”
Weaknesses: If there is one concern about Houston, it’s the lack of a go-to guy at the end of the clock. L.J. Cryer is one of the best tough-shot makers, but those shots aren’t always going to go in. J’Wan Roberts has developed an effective jump hook going to his left, but that’s not the most efficient shot. The key will be Milos Uzan, who really came into form in the final six weeks of the regular season. It took the Oklahoma transfer some time to learn Kelvin Sampson and for Sampson to learn Uzan. It’s working now, and since Uzan accepted being a little more selfish, the Cougars have looked like a very real national title threat.
Outlook: Houston’s floor is as high as any team in the country, which has been the case for the last six years. It has won back-to-back Big 12 regular-season titles after moving to the league from the AAC, won the Big 12 tournament and has reached the Sweet 16 in the last four NCAA Tournaments. The Cougars would likely be coming off their second Final Four and third Elite Eight in the last four years if Jamal Shead didn’t hurt his knee. On paper, this group looks like the best team Sampson has had at Houston heading into the tournament. Keep an eye on the status of Roberts. He missed the last two games of the Big 12 tournament with an ankle injury, but he was out of his boot during the title game. Houston’s efficiency margin, according to KenPom, was better than any team’s efficiency margin last season not named UConn. With Uzan filling Shead’s void on the offensive end, the Cougars are as good of a bet to make the Final Four as anyone. If they get to San Antonio, the Alamodome will feel like a home game. Houston can absolutely win the national championship.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Houston does three things at an elite level that great teams need: It is top-15 nationally in offensive rebounding rate, ranks top-20 nationally in defensive turnover rate and shoots better than 40 percent on 3-pointers. Put another way: The Cougars maximize the number of possessions they get in a game better than anyone and are elite at the most efficient shot in the sport. Also, they are incredible at defending the paint and have a never-ending assembly of 6-foot-8 junkyard dogs with 7-foot-5 wingspans. They have the best culture in college basketball right now, and to a point, the name on the back of the jersey doesn’t even matter. They are the epitome of “next man up.”
Weaknesses: If there is one concern about Houston, it’s the lack of a go-to guy at the end of the clock. L.J. Cryer is one of the best tough-shot makers, but those shots aren’t always going to go in. J’Wan Roberts has developed an effective jump hook going to his left, but that’s not the most efficient shot. The key will be Milos Uzan, who really came into form in the final six weeks of the regular season. It took the Oklahoma transfer some time to learn Kelvin Sampson and for Sampson to learn Uzan. It’s working now, and since Uzan accepted being a little more selfish, the Cougars have looked like a very real national title threat.
Outlook: Houston’s floor is as high as any team in the country, which has been the case for the last six years. It has won back-to-back Big 12 regular-season titles after moving to the league from the AAC, won the Big 12 tournament and has reached the Sweet 16 in the last four NCAA Tournaments. The Cougars would likely be coming off their second Final Four and third Elite Eight in the last four years if Jamal Shead didn’t hurt his knee. On paper, this group looks like the best team Sampson has had at Houston heading into the tournament. Keep an eye on the status of Roberts. He missed the last two games of the Big 12 tournament with an ankle injury, but he was out of his boot during the title game. Houston’s efficiency margin, according to KenPom, was better than any team’s efficiency margin last season not named UConn. With Uzan filling Shead’s void on the offensive end, the Cougars are as good of a bet to make the Final Four as anyone. If they get to San Antonio, the Alamodome will feel like a home game. Houston can absolutely win the national championship.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Kelvin Sampson has turned Houston into the best basketball program in the Big 12. Final Four loading?
Record: 30-4 (19-1 Big 12)
Coach: Kelvin Sampson (26-20 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: L.J. Cryer (First Team All-Big 12)
Sweet 16 projected chance
71.4%
Final Four projected chance
35.2%
Strengths: Florida has arguably the best and most complete backcourt in college basketball. Walter Clayton Jr. has developed into one of the nation’s best point guards. Alijah Martin is one of the best on-ball defenders who can score 20 points on any given night, while Will Richard and Denzel Aberdeen would be the star guard on most teams. They all have slightly different strengths, and there’s an air of humility about them. They know their roles and excel in them, and they are in it to win, not to put up stats. Perhaps the best part of the Gators is that the role acceptance extends to the frontcourt as well. They go five deep at the four and five spots with monsters on the glass who are perfectly OK with gathering offensive rebounds and kicking the ball out to their guards. Throw in a defense that ranked in the top 10 in efficiency all season, and it’s clear Florida is one of the elite teams in the country.
Weaknesses: The Gators developed a habit of getting out to slow starts. They were down 20 points at home against Missouri before losing by one. They trailed by 26 at Georgia but led in the final minutes of the five-point loss. They also have not played the gauntlet that other SEC teams have faced, as their non-conference schedule was unimpressive and Tennessee was the only top-nine SEC team they played twice. It’s not that Florida is unproven, especially after winning the SEC tournament. It’s that its record looks more impressive than it is.
Outlook: The Gators are a wagon. Todd Golden is one of the most analytically-driven coaches in America, and he has leaned all the way into the idea of building a team that shoots 3-pointers, gets dunks and pounds the offensive glass. The guards are as good as any in the country, and you’d be hard-pressed to find any team that has five bigs capable of playing at a Final Four level like Florida has. Its 30-point win over Tennessee wasn’t a fluke. It went into Auburn and beat up on the Tigers. That wasn’t an accident. This team is matchup-proof and talented enough that the goal of winning a national title is certainly within reach.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Florida has arguably the best and most complete backcourt in college basketball. Walter Clayton Jr. has developed into one of the nation’s best point guards. Alijah Martin is one of the best on-ball defenders who can score 20 points on any given night, while Will Richard and Denzel Aberdeen would be the star guard on most teams. They all have slightly different strengths, and there’s an air of humility about them. They know their roles and excel in them, and they are in it to win, not to put up stats. Perhaps the best part of the Gators is that the role acceptance extends to the frontcourt as well. They go five deep at the four and five spots with monsters on the glass who are perfectly OK with gathering offensive rebounds and kicking the ball out to their guards. Throw in a defense that ranked in the top 10 in efficiency all season, and it’s clear Florida is one of the elite teams in the country.
Weaknesses: The Gators developed a habit of getting out to slow starts. They were down 20 points at home against Missouri before losing by one. They trailed by 26 at Georgia but led in the final minutes of the five-point loss. They also have not played the gauntlet that other SEC teams have faced, as their non-conference schedule was unimpressive and Tennessee was the only top-nine SEC team they played twice. It’s not that Florida is unproven, especially after winning the SEC tournament. It’s that its record looks more impressive than it is.
Outlook: The Gators are a wagon. Todd Golden is one of the most analytically-driven coaches in America, and he has leaned all the way into the idea of building a team that shoots 3-pointers, gets dunks and pounds the offensive glass. The guards are as good as any in the country, and you’d be hard-pressed to find any team that has five bigs capable of playing at a Final Four level like Florida has. Its 30-point win over Tennessee wasn’t a fluke. It went into Auburn and beat up on the Tigers. That wasn’t an accident. This team is matchup-proof and talented enough that the goal of winning a national title is certainly within reach.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Florida has arguably the best and most complete backcourt in college basketball. Walter Clayton Jr. has developed into one of the nation’s best point guards. Alijah Martin is one of the best on-ball defenders who can score 20 points on any given night, while Will Richard and Denzel Aberdeen would be the star guard on most teams. They all have slightly different strengths, and there’s an air of humility about them. They know their roles and excel in them, and they are in it to win, not to put up stats. Perhaps the best part of the Gators is that the role acceptance extends to the frontcourt as well. They go five deep at the four and five spots with monsters on the glass who are perfectly OK with gathering offensive rebounds and kicking the ball out to their guards. Throw in a defense that ranked in the top 10 in efficiency all season, and it’s clear Florida is one of the elite teams in the country.
Weaknesses: The Gators developed a habit of getting out to slow starts. They were down 20 points at home against Missouri before losing by one. They trailed by 26 at Georgia but led in the final minutes of the five-point loss. They also have not played the gauntlet that other SEC teams have faced, as their non-conference schedule was unimpressive and Tennessee was the only top-nine SEC team they played twice. It’s not that Florida is unproven, especially after winning the SEC tournament. It’s that its record looks more impressive than it is.
Outlook: The Gators are a wagon. Todd Golden is one of the most analytically-driven coaches in America, and he has leaned all the way into the idea of building a team that shoots 3-pointers, gets dunks and pounds the offensive glass. The guards are as good as any in the country, and you’d be hard-pressed to find any team that has five bigs capable of playing at a Final Four level like Florida has. Its 30-point win over Tennessee wasn’t a fluke. It went into Auburn and beat up on the Tigers. That wasn’t an accident. This team is matchup-proof and talented enough that the goal of winning a national title is certainly within reach.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: The Gators are the most dangerous team you aren’t paying attention to.
Record: 30-4 (14-4 SEC)
Coach: Todd Golden (0-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Walter Clayton Jr. (First Team All-SEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
81.7%
Final Four projected chance
41.4%
Strengths: Michigan State is all about that D. The Spartans continuously body up bruisers and place hands in faces, routinely altering shots whether hoisted inside or out. They enter the NCAA Tournament top-30 nationally in points per possession allowed and top-20 in overall effective field goal percentage defense. Also a superb rebounding team, they crash the glass with unmitigated zeal. Over the final 10 games of the regular season, they checked in at No. 59 in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 16 in defensive rebounding percentage. Old school in their offensive delivery, they also inflict steady wounds in the midrange game. Within 20 feet, MSU is quite dangerous.
Weaknesses: The Spartans couldn’t hit the broadest side of the barn from beyond the arc. Entering the Madness, they’re in the running for owning the worst 3-point shooting in the field. On the season, they’re only netting 30.2 percent from distance. Again, extraordinary skylines have been built on Michigan State perimeter misses. Turnovers are another concern. Prior to the tournament, Tom Izzo’s bunch coughed up the roundball on 16.8 percent of its possessions. The miscues cannot mount.
Outlook: Fo shizzo my Izzo! Birds chirping, flowers blooming, grass greening and the Spartans playing at their peak in March are true rites of spring. They have the depth, defense, glass command and around-the-rim scoring to once again advance deep in the Dance. Jace Richardson’s scoring emergence in February brought an unexpected jolt. His rise is absolutely key to State’s long-term success. If — and that’s a giant IF — Sparty can shoot 34 percent or higher on 3s, the Spartans could break through unscathed in their bracket. That, however, might be the green beer talking.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Michigan State is all about that D. The Spartans continuously body up bruisers and place hands in faces, routinely altering shots whether hoisted inside or out. They enter the NCAA Tournament top-30 nationally in points per possession allowed and top-20 in overall effective field goal percentage defense. Also a superb rebounding team, they crash the glass with unmitigated zeal. Over the final 10 games of the regular season, they checked in at No. 59 in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 16 in defensive rebounding percentage. Old school in their offensive delivery, they also inflict steady wounds in the midrange game. Within 20 feet, MSU is quite dangerous.
Weaknesses: The Spartans couldn’t hit the broadest side of the barn from beyond the arc. Entering the Madness, they’re in the running for owning the worst 3-point shooting in the field. On the season, they’re only netting 30.2 percent from distance. Again, extraordinary skylines have been built on Michigan State perimeter misses. Turnovers are another concern. Prior to the tournament, Tom Izzo’s bunch coughed up the roundball on 16.8 percent of its possessions. The miscues cannot mount.
Outlook: Fo shizzo my Izzo! Birds chirping, flowers blooming, grass greening and the Spartans playing at their peak in March are true rites of spring. They have the depth, defense, glass command and around-the-rim scoring to once again advance deep in the Dance. Jace Richardson’s scoring emergence in February brought an unexpected jolt. His rise is absolutely key to State’s long-term success. If — and that’s a giant IF — Sparty can shoot 34 percent or higher on 3s, the Spartans could break through unscathed in their bracket. That, however, might be the green beer talking.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Michigan State is all about that D. The Spartans continuously body up bruisers and place hands in faces, routinely altering shots whether hoisted inside or out. They enter the NCAA Tournament top-30 nationally in points per possession allowed and top-20 in overall effective field goal percentage defense. Also a superb rebounding team, they crash the glass with unmitigated zeal. Over the final 10 games of the regular season, they checked in at No. 59 in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 16 in defensive rebounding percentage. Old school in their offensive delivery, they also inflict steady wounds in the midrange game. Within 20 feet, MSU is quite dangerous.
Weaknesses: The Spartans couldn’t hit the broadest side of the barn from beyond the arc. Entering the Madness, they’re in the running for owning the worst 3-point shooting in the field. On the season, they’re only netting 30.2 percent from distance. Again, extraordinary skylines have been built on Michigan State perimeter misses. Turnovers are another concern. Prior to the tournament, Tom Izzo’s bunch coughed up the roundball on 16.8 percent of its possessions. The miscues cannot mount.
Outlook: Fo shizzo my Izzo! Birds chirping, flowers blooming, grass greening and the Spartans playing at their peak in March are true rites of spring. They have the depth, defense, glass command and around-the-rim scoring to once again advance deep in the Dance. Jace Richardson’s scoring emergence in February brought an unexpected jolt. His rise is absolutely key to State’s long-term success. If — and that’s a giant IF — Sparty can shoot 34 percent or higher on 3s, the Spartans could break through unscathed in their bracket. That, however, might be the green beer talking.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The Sparty party nearly ran dry, but it raged down the homestretch due to terrific defense.
Record: 27-6 (17-3 Big Ten)
Coach: Tom Izzo (56-25 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Jase Richardson (Third Team All Big-Ten)
Sweet 16 projected chance
67.6%
Final Four projected chance
19.1%
Strengths: In Nate Oats’ speedy spread scheme, bucket barrages are a constant. One of the fastest teams in the country, Alabama leaves its foot firmly pressed on the gas. Over 46 percent of its shots come from 3-point range, where it converted at a 39.9 percent click over the final month of the regular season. Mark Sears, Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway showcase ridiculous outside range. The Crimson Tide also bury the opposition in near-proximity shots as the nation’s No. 1 team in 2-point percentage offense. They’re a superb offensive rebounding team and often attack the tin off the bounce. Underrated defensively due to the frenetic style, they slot inside the top 40 in effective field goal defense. Simply put, you better have oxygen tanks at the ready when matched against ‘Bama.
Weaknesses: Due to their reliance on moneyballs, the Tide are quite vulnerable when outside shots aren’t splashing. Long teams that contest and challenge attempts along the arc present a daunting challenge. Additionally, physical frontcourts can push them around. Grant Nelson, Clifford Omoruyi and key sub Mouhamed Dioubate need to dodge whistles. Helter skelter at times, Alabama is often plagued by turnovers. Over its final 10 games, it ranked No. 198 in offensive turnover percentage, coughing up the ball on 16.9 percent of its possessions. Clean executions are vital for the party down south to rage.
Outlook: Given their constant sprint, the Crimson Tide exhaust opponents. The NCAA Tournament requires quick turnarounds. Preparing to face a team of their ilk can be daunting for competitors not familiar with nonstop bombardments. Their mid-February lull raised concerns, but when the triples are falling, they can overwhelm any team in the country. As someone who holds a +900 ticket for Alabama to win the national title, I believe it has realistic chances at reaching the Final Four for a second straight season. Roll to San Antonio, Tide.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: In Nate Oats’ speedy spread scheme, bucket barrages are a constant. One of the fastest teams in the country, Alabama leaves its foot firmly pressed on the gas. Over 46 percent of its shots come from 3-point range, where it converted at a 39.9 percent click over the final month of the regular season. Mark Sears, Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway showcase ridiculous outside range. The Crimson Tide also bury the opposition in near-proximity shots as the nation’s No. 1 team in 2-point percentage offense. They’re a superb offensive rebounding team and often attack the tin off the bounce. Underrated defensively due to the frenetic style, they slot inside the top 40 in effective field goal defense. Simply put, you better have oxygen tanks at the ready when matched against ‘Bama.
Weaknesses: Due to their reliance on moneyballs, the Tide are quite vulnerable when outside shots aren’t splashing. Long teams that contest and challenge attempts along the arc present a daunting challenge. Additionally, physical frontcourts can push them around. Grant Nelson, Clifford Omoruyi and key sub Mouhamed Dioubate need to dodge whistles. Helter skelter at times, Alabama is often plagued by turnovers. Over its final 10 games, it ranked No. 198 in offensive turnover percentage, coughing up the ball on 16.9 percent of its possessions. Clean executions are vital for the party down south to rage.
Outlook: Given their constant sprint, the Crimson Tide exhaust opponents. The NCAA Tournament requires quick turnarounds. Preparing to face a team of their ilk can be daunting for competitors not familiar with nonstop bombardments. Their mid-February lull raised concerns, but when the triples are falling, they can overwhelm any team in the country. As someone who holds a +900 ticket for Alabama to win the national title, I believe it has realistic chances at reaching the Final Four for a second straight season. Roll to San Antonio, Tide.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: In Nate Oats’ speedy spread scheme, bucket barrages are a constant. One of the fastest teams in the country, Alabama leaves its foot firmly pressed on the gas. Over 46 percent of its shots come from 3-point range, where it converted at a 39.9 percent click over the final month of the regular season. Mark Sears, Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway showcase ridiculous outside range. The Crimson Tide also bury the opposition in near-proximity shots as the nation’s No. 1 team in 2-point percentage offense. They’re a superb offensive rebounding team and often attack the tin off the bounce. Underrated defensively due to the frenetic style, they slot inside the top 40 in effective field goal defense. Simply put, you better have oxygen tanks at the ready when matched against ‘Bama.
Weaknesses: Due to their reliance on moneyballs, the Tide are quite vulnerable when outside shots aren’t splashing. Long teams that contest and challenge attempts along the arc present a daunting challenge. Additionally, physical frontcourts can push them around. Grant Nelson, Clifford Omoruyi and key sub Mouhamed Dioubate need to dodge whistles. Helter skelter at times, Alabama is often plagued by turnovers. Over its final 10 games, it ranked No. 198 in offensive turnover percentage, coughing up the ball on 16.9 percent of its possessions. Clean executions are vital for the party down south to rage.
Outlook: Given their constant sprint, the Crimson Tide exhaust opponents. The NCAA Tournament requires quick turnarounds. Preparing to face a team of their ilk can be daunting for competitors not familiar with nonstop bombardments. Their mid-February lull raised concerns, but when the triples are falling, they can overwhelm any team in the country. As someone who holds a +900 ticket for Alabama to win the national title, I believe it has realistic chances at reaching the Final Four for a second straight season. Roll to San Antonio, Tide.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The up-tempo and 3-pointer-dependent Tide have national title designs despite some visible flaws.
Record: 25-8 (13-5 SEC)
Coach: Nate Oats (10-7 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Mark Sears (First Team All-SEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
59.0%
Final Four projected chance
15.2%
Strengths: Tennessee is rather fond of heavyweight prizefights. The Volunteers absorb body blows without much recourse while wearing down foes with repeated jaw-displacing jabs. In other words, they typically win ugly. They live in the half court and thrive off their defense. Over the final month of the season, according to BartTorvik, they surrendered only 0.992 points per possession, ranking No. 57 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re well-oiled, connected and committed to guarding. Also stalwarts on the glass thanks in large part to the efforts of Igor Milicic Jr. and Felix Okpara, they typically ramp up the frustration. The connectedness of one of the tournament’s most experienced clubs is also a major plus.
Weaknesses: Outside of Chaz Lanier, a gunner who can melt scoreboards, Tennessee couldn’t spit into the ocean from five feet out. Over the final month of the regular season, it ranked barely inside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting a modest 35.4 percent beyond the arc. Offensive droughts are a common occurrence. If the Vols cross paths with an up-tempo team that pounds the glass, they are bound to squirm. Also worrisome is their lack of depth. Peyton Manning U ranked 314th per KenPom in bench minutes played. If given a whistle-happy officiating crew, it could face an uphill battle.
Outlook: With noteworthy out-of-conference wins against Louisville, Baylor and Illinois and given its performance in the rough and rugged SEC, Rocky Top is a team capable of climbing high. However, its gross inconsistencies on offense could have it quickly tumbling down the mountainside. Lanier’s scoring, Zakai Zeigler’s distribution skills and Jordan Gainey’s game-to-game contributions will determine how long the Volunteers survive. Their suffocating defense will always keep them within striking distance, but if the bricks mount, Rick Barnes’ widely-perceived-but-unfair NCAA Tournament struggles will be exacerbated.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Tennessee is rather fond of heavyweight prizefights. The Volunteers absorb body blows without much recourse while wearing down foes with repeated jaw-displacing jabs. In other words, they typically win ugly. They live in the half court and thrive off their defense. Over the final month of the season, according to BartTorvik, they surrendered only 0.992 points per possession, ranking No. 57 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re well-oiled, connected and committed to guarding. Also stalwarts on the glass thanks in large part to the efforts of Igor Milicic Jr. and Felix Okpara, they typically ramp up the frustration. The connectedness of one of the tournament’s most experienced clubs is also a major plus.
Weaknesses: Outside of Chaz Lanier, a gunner who can melt scoreboards, Tennessee couldn’t spit into the ocean from five feet out. Over the final month of the regular season, it ranked barely inside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting a modest 35.4 percent beyond the arc. Offensive droughts are a common occurrence. If the Vols cross paths with an up-tempo team that pounds the glass, they are bound to squirm. Also worrisome is their lack of depth. Peyton Manning U ranked 314th per KenPom in bench minutes played. If given a whistle-happy officiating crew, it could face an uphill battle.
Outlook: With noteworthy out-of-conference wins against Louisville, Baylor and Illinois and given its performance in the rough and rugged SEC, Rocky Top is a team capable of climbing high. However, its gross inconsistencies on offense could have it quickly tumbling down the mountainside. Lanier’s scoring, Zakai Zeigler’s distribution skills and Jordan Gainey’s game-to-game contributions will determine how long the Volunteers survive. Their suffocating defense will always keep them within striking distance, but if the bricks mount, Rick Barnes’ widely-perceived-but-unfair NCAA Tournament struggles will be exacerbated.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Tennessee is rather fond of heavyweight prizefights. The Volunteers absorb body blows without much recourse while wearing down foes with repeated jaw-displacing jabs. In other words, they typically win ugly. They live in the half court and thrive off their defense. Over the final month of the season, according to BartTorvik, they surrendered only 0.992 points per possession, ranking No. 57 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re well-oiled, connected and committed to guarding. Also stalwarts on the glass thanks in large part to the efforts of Igor Milicic Jr. and Felix Okpara, they typically ramp up the frustration. The connectedness of one of the tournament’s most experienced clubs is also a major plus.
Weaknesses: Outside of Chaz Lanier, a gunner who can melt scoreboards, Tennessee couldn’t spit into the ocean from five feet out. Over the final month of the regular season, it ranked barely inside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting a modest 35.4 percent beyond the arc. Offensive droughts are a common occurrence. If the Vols cross paths with an up-tempo team that pounds the glass, they are bound to squirm. Also worrisome is their lack of depth. Peyton Manning U ranked 314th per KenPom in bench minutes played. If given a whistle-happy officiating crew, it could face an uphill battle.
Outlook: With noteworthy out-of-conference wins against Louisville, Baylor and Illinois and given its performance in the rough and rugged SEC, Rocky Top is a team capable of climbing high. However, its gross inconsistencies on offense could have it quickly tumbling down the mountainside. Lanier’s scoring, Zakai Zeigler’s distribution skills and Jordan Gainey’s game-to-game contributions will determine how long the Volunteers survive. Their suffocating defense will always keep them within striking distance, but if the bricks mount, Rick Barnes’ widely-perceived-but-unfair NCAA Tournament struggles will be exacerbated.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The Volunteers feature one of the nation’s best defenses, but offensive shortcomings limit their upside.
Record: 27-7 (12-6 SEC)
Coach: Rick Barnes (30-28 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Chaz Lanier (Second Team All-SEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
76.6%
Final Four projected chance
28.0%
Strengths: DE-FENSE (clap clap) DE-FENSE (clap clap). No team in college basketball can guard the way St. John’s can guard. It has been in and around the top five in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric all season because it is among the very best at forcing turnovers and defending without fouling. RJ Luis Jr. and Kadary Richmond are two of the best individual defenders in the country, and Zuby Ejiofor might be the most improved player in the Big East. With so much size, length and athleticism across the roster, there may not be a more versatile defensive team. The Red Storm are also one of the best-conditioned squads. Their pressure wears on opponents, both physically and mentally, and when they throw on a full-court press in the second half, a run can turn into an avalanche.
Weaknesses: St. John’s cannot shoot. It was the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big East by a mile, and it ranked 345th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage. The only high-major team that shot fewer 3s by volume was Seton Hall, the worst high-major team in America. In modern college basketball, that is usually a death knell for any team. To put it into context, St. John’s is shooting 29.9 percent from beyond the arc. There have only been two teams to reach the Final Four since 2012 that have shot worse than 33.1 percent from 3-point range: Louisville in 2012 and Louisville in 2013, when the Cards won the title. Their coach? Rick Pitino.
Outlook: St. John’s is not a team that wins with offensive efficiency. It wins with volume. Pitino’s entire concept for this squad is creating the biggest advantage possible in the number of offensive possessions. He wants to win the battle of the backboards, getting stops and creating as many second-chance opportunities as possible. He wants to force turnovers, not only to get extra shots but also to turn live-ball turnovers into layups, which allow the Red Storm to get into their press and create more turnovers. They will feast on teams that don’t have strong guard play. The other reason to trust St. John’s is Richmond and Luis. They may not be the most efficient offensive weapons, but they are as clutch as anyone in the nation. Mid-range jumpers may be bad shots in theory, but there is no such thing as a bad shot when the shot goes in.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: DE-FENSE (clap clap) DE-FENSE (clap clap). No team in college basketball can guard the way St. John’s can guard. It has been in and around the top five in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric all season because it is among the very best at forcing turnovers and defending without fouling. RJ Luis Jr. and Kadary Richmond are two of the best individual defenders in the country, and Zuby Ejiofor might be the most improved player in the Big East. With so much size, length and athleticism across the roster, there may not be a more versatile defensive team. The Red Storm are also one of the best-conditioned squads. Their pressure wears on opponents, both physically and mentally, and when they throw on a full-court press in the second half, a run can turn into an avalanche.
Weaknesses: St. John’s cannot shoot. It was the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big East by a mile, and it ranked 345th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage. The only high-major team that shot fewer 3s by volume was Seton Hall, the worst high-major team in America. In modern college basketball, that is usually a death knell for any team. To put it into context, St. John’s is shooting 29.9 percent from beyond the arc. There have only been two teams to reach the Final Four since 2012 that have shot worse than 33.1 percent from 3-point range: Louisville in 2012 and Louisville in 2013, when the Cards won the title. Their coach? Rick Pitino.
Outlook: St. John’s is not a team that wins with offensive efficiency. It wins with volume. Pitino’s entire concept for this squad is creating the biggest advantage possible in the number of offensive possessions. He wants to win the battle of the backboards, getting stops and creating as many second-chance opportunities as possible. He wants to force turnovers, not only to get extra shots but also to turn live-ball turnovers into layups, which allow the Red Storm to get into their press and create more turnovers. They will feast on teams that don’t have strong guard play. The other reason to trust St. John’s is Richmond and Luis. They may not be the most efficient offensive weapons, but they are as clutch as anyone in the nation. Mid-range jumpers may be bad shots in theory, but there is no such thing as a bad shot when the shot goes in.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: DE-FENSE (clap clap) DE-FENSE (clap clap). No team in college basketball can guard the way St. John’s can guard. It has been in and around the top five in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric all season because it is among the very best at forcing turnovers and defending without fouling. RJ Luis Jr. and Kadary Richmond are two of the best individual defenders in the country, and Zuby Ejiofor might be the most improved player in the Big East. With so much size, length and athleticism across the roster, there may not be a more versatile defensive team. The Red Storm are also one of the best-conditioned squads. Their pressure wears on opponents, both physically and mentally, and when they throw on a full-court press in the second half, a run can turn into an avalanche.
Weaknesses: St. John’s cannot shoot. It was the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big East by a mile, and it ranked 345th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage. The only high-major team that shot fewer 3s by volume was Seton Hall, the worst high-major team in America. In modern college basketball, that is usually a death knell for any team. To put it into context, St. John’s is shooting 29.9 percent from beyond the arc. There have only been two teams to reach the Final Four since 2012 that have shot worse than 33.1 percent from 3-point range: Louisville in 2012 and Louisville in 2013, when the Cards won the title. Their coach? Rick Pitino.
Outlook: St. John’s is not a team that wins with offensive efficiency. It wins with volume. Pitino’s entire concept for this squad is creating the biggest advantage possible in the number of offensive possessions. He wants to win the battle of the backboards, getting stops and creating as many second-chance opportunities as possible. He wants to force turnovers, not only to get extra shots but also to turn live-ball turnovers into layups, which allow the Red Storm to get into their press and create more turnovers. They will feast on teams that don’t have strong guard play. The other reason to trust St. John’s is Richmond and Luis. They may not be the most efficient offensive weapons, but they are as clutch as anyone in the nation. Mid-range jumpers may be bad shots in theory, but there is no such thing as a bad shot when the shot goes in.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: No one can guard like the Johnnies, but can Rick Pitino create enough offense?
Record: 30-4 (18-2 Big East)
Coach: Rick Pitino (54-21 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: RJ Luis Jr. (First Team All-Big East)
Sweet 16 projected chance
67.1%
Final Four projected chance
16.2%
Strengths: When whole and functioning as a collective, Iowa State is cohesive, resilient and well-balanced. According to BartTorvik, it is top-30 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Otzelberger’s boys excel in trap sets, creating chaos and applying uncomfortable pressure. It explains why ISU has coaxed a turnover on over 22 percent of opponent possessions, good for No. 9 in the country entering the postseason. Strong off the bounce when attacking the rim, the Cyclones are often rewarded for their aggressiveness with charity-stripe chances. Over 21 percent of their points come at the free-throw line, where they shoot 75.7 percent. Additionally, they’re scrappy on the offensive glass, generating ample second and third chances. Overall, their experience and togetherness shouldn’t be underestimated.
Weaknesses: Iowa State sloughed down the regular season’s homestretch. It ranked outside the top 35 in total efficiency over its final 10 games, per BartTorvik. Most worrisome were the self-inflicted wounds mounted throughout February and early March. Over that timeframe, the Cyclones coughed it up on 19.5 percent of their possessions. Though they are capable of shooting the rock from outside, only 28.8 percent of their points in Big 12 play came from distance. Depth is also a concern. This season, they’re below No. 240 in bench minutes played.
Outlook: Star floor general Keshon Gilbert missed a handful of games late in the regular season with a muscle strain. His health and performance are imperative for Iowa State to weave a deep tourney run. If the Cyclones can clean up the miscues and challenge the 3 like they did earlier this season, they will exceed soured expectations. Despite their finish-line limp, overlooking their Elite Eight potential isn’t recommended.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: When whole and functioning as a collective, Iowa State is cohesive, resilient and well-balanced. According to BartTorvik, it is top-30 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Otzelberger’s boys excel in trap sets, creating chaos and applying uncomfortable pressure. It explains why ISU has coaxed a turnover on over 22 percent of opponent possessions, good for No. 9 in the country entering the postseason. Strong off the bounce when attacking the rim, the Cyclones are often rewarded for their aggressiveness with charity-stripe chances. Over 21 percent of their points come at the free-throw line, where they shoot 75.7 percent. Additionally, they’re scrappy on the offensive glass, generating ample second and third chances. Overall, their experience and togetherness shouldn’t be underestimated.
Weaknesses: Iowa State sloughed down the regular season’s homestretch. It ranked outside the top 35 in total efficiency over its final 10 games, per BartTorvik. Most worrisome were the self-inflicted wounds mounted throughout February and early March. Over that timeframe, the Cyclones coughed it up on 19.5 percent of their possessions. Though they are capable of shooting the rock from outside, only 28.8 percent of their points in Big 12 play came from distance. Depth is also a concern. This season, they’re below No. 240 in bench minutes played.
Outlook: Star floor general Keshon Gilbert missed a handful of games late in the regular season with a muscle strain. His health and performance are imperative for Iowa State to weave a deep tourney run. If the Cyclones can clean up the miscues and challenge the 3 like they did earlier this season, they will exceed soured expectations. Despite their finish-line limp, overlooking their Elite Eight potential isn’t recommended.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: When whole and functioning as a collective, Iowa State is cohesive, resilient and well-balanced. According to BartTorvik, it is top-30 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Otzelberger’s boys excel in trap sets, creating chaos and applying uncomfortable pressure. It explains why ISU has coaxed a turnover on over 22 percent of opponent possessions, good for No. 9 in the country entering the postseason. Strong off the bounce when attacking the rim, the Cyclones are often rewarded for their aggressiveness with charity-stripe chances. Over 21 percent of their points come at the free-throw line, where they shoot 75.7 percent. Additionally, they’re scrappy on the offensive glass, generating ample second and third chances. Overall, their experience and togetherness shouldn’t be underestimated.
Weaknesses: Iowa State sloughed down the regular season’s homestretch. It ranked outside the top 35 in total efficiency over its final 10 games, per BartTorvik. Most worrisome were the self-inflicted wounds mounted throughout February and early March. Over that timeframe, the Cyclones coughed it up on 19.5 percent of their possessions. Though they are capable of shooting the rock from outside, only 28.8 percent of their points in Big 12 play came from distance. Depth is also a concern. This season, they’re below No. 240 in bench minutes played.
Outlook: Star floor general Keshon Gilbert missed a handful of games late in the regular season with a muscle strain. His health and performance are imperative for Iowa State to weave a deep tourney run. If the Cyclones can clean up the miscues and challenge the 3 like they did earlier this season, they will exceed soured expectations. Despite their finish-line limp, overlooking their Elite Eight potential isn’t recommended.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The Cyclones didn’t exactly toss farmhouses over the final month, but they shouldn’t be discounted.
Record: 24-9 (13-7 Big 12)
Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (4-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Curtis Jones (First Team All-Big 12)
Sweet 16 projected chance
65.2%
Final Four projected chance
15.6%
Strengths: Wisconsin took a sharp left turn compared to previous iterations. This season’s Badgers played at a much brisker pace, featured more designed pick action and generally flourished on offense. Entering the postseason, they ranked No. 12 in points per possession scored. Yes, WISCONSIN! Specifically, the squad has the size and guard play to blow up brackets. John Blackwell is an outstanding bucket getter, and Nolan Winter can plunge deadly outside daggers at times. Most terrifically, John Tonje can score anywhere. The Missouri transfer has become a certifiable mad dog in Madison. In the regular season, Bucky shot over 35 percent on 3-pointers. Also, the Badgers thrived on the glass, ranking top-35 in defensive rebound percentage, and they led the nation in free-throw shooting. Whether on the road or at the Kohl Center, they simply crushed.
Weaknesses: Wisconsin possesses few statistical weaknesses. If anything, its defense is average. The Badgers aren’t exactly rolling out the red carpet for the competition, but with a ranking outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage over the regular season’s final month, they didn’t exactly suffocate opponents. During that seven-game stretch, they surrendered 38 percent on 3s. Though excellent on the defensive glass, big men Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter didn’t generate many second-chance opportunities. However, that also was a function of just how efficient Greg Gard’s club was offensively.
Outlook: Having undergone a significant evolution, this Wisconsin team is not your older brother’s shot clock-sucking version. No joke, the Badgers are a true dark horse to reach the Final Four, despite their downward turn to finish the regular season. They protect the basketball, slam the door at the line and possess the upperclassman leadership to play unfazed. UW is the Big Ten’s best shot to break its 25-year national title drought. Do not underestimate it.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Wisconsin took a sharp left turn compared to previous iterations. This season’s Badgers played at a much brisker pace, featured more designed pick action and generally flourished on offense. Entering the postseason, they ranked No. 12 in points per possession scored. Yes, WISCONSIN! Specifically, the squad has the size and guard play to blow up brackets. John Blackwell is an outstanding bucket getter, and Nolan Winter can plunge deadly outside daggers at times. Most terrifically, John Tonje can score anywhere. The Missouri transfer has become a certifiable mad dog in Madison. In the regular season, Bucky shot over 35 percent on 3-pointers. Also, the Badgers thrived on the glass, ranking top-35 in defensive rebound percentage, and they led the nation in free-throw shooting. Whether on the road or at the Kohl Center, they simply crushed.
Weaknesses: Wisconsin possesses few statistical weaknesses. If anything, its defense is average. The Badgers aren’t exactly rolling out the red carpet for the competition, but with a ranking outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage over the regular season’s final month, they didn’t exactly suffocate opponents. During that seven-game stretch, they surrendered 38 percent on 3s. Though excellent on the defensive glass, big men Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter didn’t generate many second-chance opportunities. However, that also was a function of just how efficient Greg Gard’s club was offensively.
Outlook: Having undergone a significant evolution, this Wisconsin team is not your older brother’s shot clock-sucking version. No joke, the Badgers are a true dark horse to reach the Final Four, despite their downward turn to finish the regular season. They protect the basketball, slam the door at the line and possess the upperclassman leadership to play unfazed. UW is the Big Ten’s best shot to break its 25-year national title drought. Do not underestimate it.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Wisconsin took a sharp left turn compared to previous iterations. This season’s Badgers played at a much brisker pace, featured more designed pick action and generally flourished on offense. Entering the postseason, they ranked No. 12 in points per possession scored. Yes, WISCONSIN! Specifically, the squad has the size and guard play to blow up brackets. John Blackwell is an outstanding bucket getter, and Nolan Winter can plunge deadly outside daggers at times. Most terrifically, John Tonje can score anywhere. The Missouri transfer has become a certifiable mad dog in Madison. In the regular season, Bucky shot over 35 percent on 3-pointers. Also, the Badgers thrived on the glass, ranking top-35 in defensive rebound percentage, and they led the nation in free-throw shooting. Whether on the road or at the Kohl Center, they simply crushed.
Weaknesses: Wisconsin possesses few statistical weaknesses. If anything, its defense is average. The Badgers aren’t exactly rolling out the red carpet for the competition, but with a ranking outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage over the regular season’s final month, they didn’t exactly suffocate opponents. During that seven-game stretch, they surrendered 38 percent on 3s. Though excellent on the defensive glass, big men Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter didn’t generate many second-chance opportunities. However, that also was a function of just how efficient Greg Gard’s club was offensively.
Outlook: Having undergone a significant evolution, this Wisconsin team is not your older brother’s shot clock-sucking version. No joke, the Badgers are a true dark horse to reach the Final Four, despite their downward turn to finish the regular season. They protect the basketball, slam the door at the line and possess the upperclassman leadership to play unfazed. UW is the Big Ten’s best shot to break its 25-year national title drought. Do not underestimate it.
—Brad Evans
What to know: This year’s prolific-scoring Badgers have traded in their Air Monarchs for track shoes.
Record: 26-9 (13-7 Big Ten)
Coach: Greg Gard (6-6 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: John Tonje (First Team All-Big Ten)
Sweet 16 projected chance
51.7%
Final Four projected chance
7.7%
Strengths: Kentucky is easily one of the most high-octane and versatile offensive teams in college basketball. It starts, believe it or not, with five-man Amari Williams, whose ability to be a facilitator and distributor from the top of the key allows Mark Pope’s zoom actions and backdoors to work so well. The Wildcats have shooters all over the floor, and while there isn’t one player on their roster that can be considered in the mix for All-American status, so many different weapons — Koby Brea’s shooting, Andrew Carr’s matchup problems or Otega Oweh’s ability to get to the rim — can win them a game. Oddly enough, what was a weakness may have actually turned into a strength. Since being ranked 112th in defensive efficiency by KenPom after a Feb. 4 loss to Ole Miss, UK has turned things around. While it will never be confused with Tennessee on that end of the floor, it doesn’t need to be. It only needs to be good enough. In the last month of the regular season, Kentucky ranked 16th in defensive efficiency. That’s good enough.
Weaknesses: Health. Plain and simple. Kerr Kriisa (foot) and Jaxson Robinson (wrist) are done for the season. Lamont Butler is playing through a shoulder injury that is not going to fully heal before the end of the season. It’s not about getting to 100 percent with Butler; it’s about getting to a point where he can play through the pain without having to miss more time. The three players are Kentucky’s top two point guards and emergency point guard. In their absence, Amari Williams played the point. Kentucky does not have a ceiling in that situation.
Outlook: Given their newfound defensive mettle, the Wildcats have real potential to make a March run because they made these gains without Butler, one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders. The injuries also forced Travis Perry and Trent Noah to play more minutes, and it’s safe to say the two freshmen can be used as effective bench weapons. The risk is that one hit could jar Butler’s shoulder and turn him back into a spectator, but it’s a risk worth taking. When Kentucky is right, it is as dangerous as any offense in the country.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Kentucky is easily one of the most high-octane and versatile offensive teams in college basketball. It starts, believe it or not, with five-man Amari Williams, whose ability to be a facilitator and distributor from the top of the key allows Mark Pope’s zoom actions and backdoors to work so well. The Wildcats have shooters all over the floor, and while there isn’t one player on their roster that can be considered in the mix for All-American status, so many different weapons — Koby Brea’s shooting, Andrew Carr’s matchup problems or Otega Oweh’s ability to get to the rim — can win them a game. Oddly enough, what was a weakness may have actually turned into a strength. Since being ranked 112th in defensive efficiency by KenPom after a Feb. 4 loss to Ole Miss, UK has turned things around. While it will never be confused with Tennessee on that end of the floor, it doesn’t need to be. It only needs to be good enough. In the last month of the regular season, Kentucky ranked 16th in defensive efficiency. That’s good enough.
Weaknesses: Health. Plain and simple. Kerr Kriisa (foot) and Jaxson Robinson (wrist) are done for the season. Lamont Butler is playing through a shoulder injury that is not going to fully heal before the end of the season. It’s not about getting to 100 percent with Butler; it’s about getting to a point where he can play through the pain without having to miss more time. The three players are Kentucky’s top two point guards and emergency point guard. In their absence, Amari Williams played the point. Kentucky does not have a ceiling in that situation.
Outlook: Given their newfound defensive mettle, the Wildcats have real potential to make a March run because they made these gains without Butler, one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders. The injuries also forced Travis Perry and Trent Noah to play more minutes, and it’s safe to say the two freshmen can be used as effective bench weapons. The risk is that one hit could jar Butler’s shoulder and turn him back into a spectator, but it’s a risk worth taking. When Kentucky is right, it is as dangerous as any offense in the country.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Kentucky is easily one of the most high-octane and versatile offensive teams in college basketball. It starts, believe it or not, with five-man Amari Williams, whose ability to be a facilitator and distributor from the top of the key allows Mark Pope’s zoom actions and backdoors to work so well. The Wildcats have shooters all over the floor, and while there isn’t one player on their roster that can be considered in the mix for All-American status, so many different weapons — Koby Brea’s shooting, Andrew Carr’s matchup problems or Otega Oweh’s ability to get to the rim — can win them a game. Oddly enough, what was a weakness may have actually turned into a strength. Since being ranked 112th in defensive efficiency by KenPom after a Feb. 4 loss to Ole Miss, UK has turned things around. While it will never be confused with Tennessee on that end of the floor, it doesn’t need to be. It only needs to be good enough. In the last month of the regular season, Kentucky ranked 16th in defensive efficiency. That’s good enough.
Weaknesses: Health. Plain and simple. Kerr Kriisa (foot) and Jaxson Robinson (wrist) are done for the season. Lamont Butler is playing through a shoulder injury that is not going to fully heal before the end of the season. It’s not about getting to 100 percent with Butler; it’s about getting to a point where he can play through the pain without having to miss more time. The three players are Kentucky’s top two point guards and emergency point guard. In their absence, Amari Williams played the point. Kentucky does not have a ceiling in that situation.
Outlook: Given their newfound defensive mettle, the Wildcats have real potential to make a March run because they made these gains without Butler, one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders. The injuries also forced Travis Perry and Trent Noah to play more minutes, and it’s safe to say the two freshmen can be used as effective bench weapons. The risk is that one hit could jar Butler’s shoulder and turn him back into a spectator, but it’s a risk worth taking. When Kentucky is right, it is as dangerous as any offense in the country.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Kentucky is as dangerous as any team in the country, when healthy.
Record: 22-11 (10-8 SEC)
Coach: Mark Pope (0-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Lamont Butler (4.3 APG)
Sweet 16 projected chance
42.1%
Final Four projected chance
5.2%
Strengths: Grant McCasland’s rebuilding of the program in just two seasons is commendable, especially when you consider just how much he lost from last year’s No. 6-seeded squad. McCasland hit the transfer portal for a talented, pass-first point guard (Elijah Hawkins) and a dominant, rim-running and floor-spacing five (JT Toppin), and he surrounded those two cornerstones with a number of versatile shooters to create a ton of space. The concept is simple: Use Toppin in ball screens, space the floor with shooters and force opposing defenses to make a decision. It works because Hawkins and freshman Christian Anderson, to a lesser extent, are terrific decision-making point guards. Fit is the most underrated part of team construction in this day and age, and all of Texas Tech’s pieces fit. The Red Raiders’ ranking in the 95th percentile in points per possession out of ball screens is proof.
Weaknesses: Texas Tech doesn’t have the most size or depth on the interior. It gets really thin once you get past Toppin, and while the sophomore has been good about avoiding foul trouble, it’s always a concern for a five-man who’s 6-foot-9 and 225 pounds. However, it’s not just the size. Rim protection is a concern, too. The Red Raiders rank outside the top 250 in defensive block rate (that is, if you can get all the way to the rim against them). They play exclusively man-to-man and excel at running teams off the 3-point line without fouling. If you can put the ball on the floor and get to the basket, they can be beaten, but that’s easier said than done against McCasland, one of the better defensive coaches in the country.
Outlook: Texas Tech is a really dangerous team. Hawkins and Toppin are the engines who make the Red Raiders go. Also, Chance McMillian has developed into one of the best shooters in college basketball, having logged multiple games with at least five 3-pointers, and Darrion Williams is another unsung hero. The do-it-all forward is second on the team in assists (four per game), can score 20 points on any given night and has developed into an elite connector. Texas Tech does not have the most NBA talent and won’t be the trendy pick to make a run out of the Big 12, but teams that defend, make 3s and don’t beat themselves are the squads that play into April. The Red Raiders are Final Four good, and I’m not sure how many people realize that.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Grant McCasland’s rebuilding of the program in just two seasons is commendable, especially when you consider just how much he lost from last year’s No. 6-seeded squad. McCasland hit the transfer portal for a talented, pass-first point guard (Elijah Hawkins) and a dominant, rim-running and floor-spacing five (JT Toppin), and he surrounded those two cornerstones with a number of versatile shooters to create a ton of space. The concept is simple: Use Toppin in ball screens, space the floor with shooters and force opposing defenses to make a decision. It works because Hawkins and freshman Christian Anderson, to a lesser extent, are terrific decision-making point guards. Fit is the most underrated part of team construction in this day and age, and all of Texas Tech’s pieces fit. The Red Raiders’ ranking in the 95th percentile in points per possession out of ball screens is proof.
Weaknesses: Texas Tech doesn’t have the most size or depth on the interior. It gets really thin once you get past Toppin, and while the sophomore has been good about avoiding foul trouble, it’s always a concern for a five-man who’s 6-foot-9 and 225 pounds. However, it’s not just the size. Rim protection is a concern, too. The Red Raiders rank outside the top 250 in defensive block rate (that is, if you can get all the way to the rim against them). They play exclusively man-to-man and excel at running teams off the 3-point line without fouling. If you can put the ball on the floor and get to the basket, they can be beaten, but that’s easier said than done against McCasland, one of the better defensive coaches in the country.
Outlook: Texas Tech is a really dangerous team. Hawkins and Toppin are the engines who make the Red Raiders go. Also, Chance McMillian has developed into one of the best shooters in college basketball, having logged multiple games with at least five 3-pointers, and Darrion Williams is another unsung hero. The do-it-all forward is second on the team in assists (four per game), can score 20 points on any given night and has developed into an elite connector. Texas Tech does not have the most NBA talent and won’t be the trendy pick to make a run out of the Big 12, but teams that defend, make 3s and don’t beat themselves are the squads that play into April. The Red Raiders are Final Four good, and I’m not sure how many people realize that.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Grant McCasland’s rebuilding of the program in just two seasons is commendable, especially when you consider just how much he lost from last year’s No. 6-seeded squad. McCasland hit the transfer portal for a talented, pass-first point guard (Elijah Hawkins) and a dominant, rim-running and floor-spacing five (JT Toppin), and he surrounded those two cornerstones with a number of versatile shooters to create a ton of space. The concept is simple: Use Toppin in ball screens, space the floor with shooters and force opposing defenses to make a decision. It works because Hawkins and freshman Christian Anderson, to a lesser extent, are terrific decision-making point guards. Fit is the most underrated part of team construction in this day and age, and all of Texas Tech’s pieces fit. The Red Raiders’ ranking in the 95th percentile in points per possession out of ball screens is proof.
Weaknesses: Texas Tech doesn’t have the most size or depth on the interior. It gets really thin once you get past Toppin, and while the sophomore has been good about avoiding foul trouble, it’s always a concern for a five-man who’s 6-foot-9 and 225 pounds. However, it’s not just the size. Rim protection is a concern, too. The Red Raiders rank outside the top 250 in defensive block rate (that is, if you can get all the way to the rim against them). They play exclusively man-to-man and excel at running teams off the 3-point line without fouling. If you can put the ball on the floor and get to the basket, they can be beaten, but that’s easier said than done against McCasland, one of the better defensive coaches in the country.
Outlook: Texas Tech is a really dangerous team. Hawkins and Toppin are the engines who make the Red Raiders go. Also, Chance McMillian has developed into one of the best shooters in college basketball, having logged multiple games with at least five 3-pointers, and Darrion Williams is another unsung hero. The do-it-all forward is second on the team in assists (four per game), can score 20 points on any given night and has developed into an elite connector. Texas Tech does not have the most NBA talent and won’t be the trendy pick to make a run out of the Big 12, but teams that defend, make 3s and don’t beat themselves are the squads that play into April. The Red Raiders are Final Four good, and I’m not sure how many people realize that.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Grant McCasland rebuilt Texas Tech into its best team since the 2019 Final Four squad.
Record: 25-8 (15-5 Big 12)
Coach: Grant McCasland (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: JT Toppin (First Team All-Big 12)
Sweet 16 projected chance
62.2%
Final Four projected chance
16.3%
Strengths: No team plays harder than Texas A&M. No one. The Aggies defend for 40 minutes like their lives depend on it. They are the best offensive rebounding group in the country. They go 10 players deep, and eight of them are on the roster to mostly defend and rebound. Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps are talented, tough-shot makers who are capable of putting up big numbers. The simple explanation of A&M’s game plan is to let Taylor and Phelps go one-on-one and send everyone else to get the rebound if they miss. Every time you play the Aggies, you must be ready for the intensity and the physicality. If you don’t, you’ll be overwhelmed.
Weaknesses: Both Taylor and Phelps are low-efficiency, high-volume shooters. Phelps won games on his own this season, including a 34-point explosion in an 80-78 victory at Oklahoma, but he also shot A&M out of games. He followed up his Oklahoma heroics with a 9-for-29 clunker in a home loss against Alabama, and he is shooting well under 30 percent on 3-pointers. Taylor has been better this season with Phelps on the roster, as defenses cannot focus on him for 40 minutes, but he’s still making about a third of his 3s. The Aggies’ other issue is that when a team matches their toughness and physicality they tend to run out of answers. They are limited if they can’t overwhelm you.
Outlook: I can’t see Texas A&M getting picked off by a mid-major in the first round. The Aggies just have too much size and strength. However, I have a hard time seeing them get past their first matchup against a top seed. Maybe that comes in the second round. Maybe that comes in the Sweet 16. Whenever it does happen, that is when A&M will be heading home.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: No team plays harder than Texas A&M. No one. The Aggies defend for 40 minutes like their lives depend on it. They are the best offensive rebounding group in the country. They go 10 players deep, and eight of them are on the roster to mostly defend and rebound. Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps are talented, tough-shot makers who are capable of putting up big numbers. The simple explanation of A&M’s game plan is to let Taylor and Phelps go one-on-one and send everyone else to get the rebound if they miss. Every time you play the Aggies, you must be ready for the intensity and the physicality. If you don’t, you’ll be overwhelmed.
Weaknesses: Both Taylor and Phelps are low-efficiency, high-volume shooters. Phelps won games on his own this season, including a 34-point explosion in an 80-78 victory at Oklahoma, but he also shot A&M out of games. He followed up his Oklahoma heroics with a 9-for-29 clunker in a home loss against Alabama, and he is shooting well under 30 percent on 3-pointers. Taylor has been better this season with Phelps on the roster, as defenses cannot focus on him for 40 minutes, but he’s still making about a third of his 3s. The Aggies’ other issue is that when a team matches their toughness and physicality they tend to run out of answers. They are limited if they can’t overwhelm you.
Outlook: I can’t see Texas A&M getting picked off by a mid-major in the first round. The Aggies just have too much size and strength. However, I have a hard time seeing them get past their first matchup against a top seed. Maybe that comes in the second round. Maybe that comes in the Sweet 16. Whenever it does happen, that is when A&M will be heading home.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: No team plays harder than Texas A&M. No one. The Aggies defend for 40 minutes like their lives depend on it. They are the best offensive rebounding group in the country. They go 10 players deep, and eight of them are on the roster to mostly defend and rebound. Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps are talented, tough-shot makers who are capable of putting up big numbers. The simple explanation of A&M’s game plan is to let Taylor and Phelps go one-on-one and send everyone else to get the rebound if they miss. Every time you play the Aggies, you must be ready for the intensity and the physicality. If you don’t, you’ll be overwhelmed.
Weaknesses: Both Taylor and Phelps are low-efficiency, high-volume shooters. Phelps won games on his own this season, including a 34-point explosion in an 80-78 victory at Oklahoma, but he also shot A&M out of games. He followed up his Oklahoma heroics with a 9-for-29 clunker in a home loss against Alabama, and he is shooting well under 30 percent on 3-pointers. Taylor has been better this season with Phelps on the roster, as defenses cannot focus on him for 40 minutes, but he’s still making about a third of his 3s. The Aggies’ other issue is that when a team matches their toughness and physicality they tend to run out of answers. They are limited if they can’t overwhelm you.
Outlook: I can’t see Texas A&M getting picked off by a mid-major in the first round. The Aggies just have too much size and strength. However, I have a hard time seeing them get past their first matchup against a top seed. Maybe that comes in the second round. Maybe that comes in the Sweet 16. Whenever it does happen, that is when A&M will be heading home.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Buzz Williams’ team plays incredibly hard, and if his guards are making shots, look out.
Record: 22-10 (11-7 SEC)
Coach: Buzz Williams (11-10 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Wade Taylor IV (First Team All-SEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
53.1%
Final Four projected chance
9.1%
Strengths: Generally speaking, you know what you’re going to get out of a Tommy Lloyd-coached team. It’s going to push in transition and look for early post seals, and if that fails, it’s going to run some ball-screen continuity action until it can get a good shot. When center Motiejus Krivas (foot surgery) was lost for the season, the Wildcats didn’t have a low-post presence to lean on. Enter Henri Veesaar and Tobe Awaka, their thunder and lightning duo at the five. Awaka is the physical, offensive-rebounding hoss, while Veesaar is a rim-running, floor-spacing five. With that duo, a potent backcourt and the emergence of potential lottery pick Carter Bryant, U of A has a lot of different ways to score.
Weaknesses: Arizona feels a bit like a team without an identity. On paper, the group doesn’t look all that different from Lloyd’s first three years in Tucson when the Wildcats won the Pac-12 twice and were a top-two seed all three seasons. He has some good guards. Awaka and Veesaar have been an impactful center platoon over the last three months. Jaden Bradley has his moments, and Caleb Love is capable of winning or losing a game all on his own. However, I’m not sure what they do well scares an opposing coach. They aren’t some defensive juggernaut, and they aren’t as good in transition as in years past. They beat who they are supposed to beat, and they lose the games they are supposed to lose.
Outlook: “Good but not great” is probably the best way to sum up what Arizona is in 2025. Its guards — Love, Bradley and Anthony Dell’Orso — are good enough to win a game or two in March, but I’m not sure the Wildcats are built for a deep run. Their bigs are capable of creating some matchup problems, but they’re not even a top-four frontcourt in the Big 12. Bryant is good for a freshman, but he’s not among the top-10 freshmen in America. Arizona is one of those teams that is unlikely to get upset in the first round, but it is also just as unlikely to advance to the Elite Eight.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Generally speaking, you know what you’re going to get out of a Tommy Lloyd-coached team. It’s going to push in transition and look for early post seals, and if that fails, it’s going to run some ball-screen continuity action until it can get a good shot. When center Motiejus Krivas (foot surgery) was lost for the season, the Wildcats didn’t have a low-post presence to lean on. Enter Henri Veesaar and Tobe Awaka, their thunder and lightning duo at the five. Awaka is the physical, offensive-rebounding hoss, while Veesaar is a rim-running, floor-spacing five. With that duo, a potent backcourt and the emergence of potential lottery pick Carter Bryant, U of A has a lot of different ways to score.
Weaknesses: Arizona feels a bit like a team without an identity. On paper, the group doesn’t look all that different from Lloyd’s first three years in Tucson when the Wildcats won the Pac-12 twice and were a top-two seed all three seasons. He has some good guards. Awaka and Veesaar have been an impactful center platoon over the last three months. Jaden Bradley has his moments, and Caleb Love is capable of winning or losing a game all on his own. However, I’m not sure what they do well scares an opposing coach. They aren’t some defensive juggernaut, and they aren’t as good in transition as in years past. They beat who they are supposed to beat, and they lose the games they are supposed to lose.
Outlook: “Good but not great” is probably the best way to sum up what Arizona is in 2025. Its guards — Love, Bradley and Anthony Dell’Orso — are good enough to win a game or two in March, but I’m not sure the Wildcats are built for a deep run. Their bigs are capable of creating some matchup problems, but they’re not even a top-four frontcourt in the Big 12. Bryant is good for a freshman, but he’s not among the top-10 freshmen in America. Arizona is one of those teams that is unlikely to get upset in the first round, but it is also just as unlikely to advance to the Elite Eight.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Generally speaking, you know what you’re going to get out of a Tommy Lloyd-coached team. It’s going to push in transition and look for early post seals, and if that fails, it’s going to run some ball-screen continuity action until it can get a good shot. When center Motiejus Krivas (foot surgery) was lost for the season, the Wildcats didn’t have a low-post presence to lean on. Enter Henri Veesaar and Tobe Awaka, their thunder and lightning duo at the five. Awaka is the physical, offensive-rebounding hoss, while Veesaar is a rim-running, floor-spacing five. With that duo, a potent backcourt and the emergence of potential lottery pick Carter Bryant, U of A has a lot of different ways to score.
Weaknesses: Arizona feels a bit like a team without an identity. On paper, the group doesn’t look all that different from Lloyd’s first three years in Tucson when the Wildcats won the Pac-12 twice and were a top-two seed all three seasons. He has some good guards. Awaka and Veesaar have been an impactful center platoon over the last three months. Jaden Bradley has his moments, and Caleb Love is capable of winning or losing a game all on his own. However, I’m not sure what they do well scares an opposing coach. They aren’t some defensive juggernaut, and they aren’t as good in transition as in years past. They beat who they are supposed to beat, and they lose the games they are supposed to lose.
Outlook: “Good but not great” is probably the best way to sum up what Arizona is in 2025. Its guards — Love, Bradley and Anthony Dell’Orso — are good enough to win a game or two in March, but I’m not sure the Wildcats are built for a deep run. Their bigs are capable of creating some matchup problems, but they’re not even a top-four frontcourt in the Big 12. Bryant is good for a freshman, but he’s not among the top-10 freshmen in America. Arizona is one of those teams that is unlikely to get upset in the first round, but it is also just as unlikely to advance to the Elite Eight.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: As Caleb Love goes, so goes Arizona. When he’s hot, the Wildcats can beat anyone.
Record: 22-12 (14-6 Big 12)
Coach: Tommy Lloyd (4-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Caleb Love (First Team All-Big 12)
Sweet 16 projected chance
60.5%
Final Four projected chance
6.6%
Strengths: Guards are often everything in the NCAA Tournament, and the Boilers boast one of the best pure points in the country. Braden Smith is a wizard with the rock in his hands. He surveys the court with keen eyes, creates space on dribble drives, distributes passes with surgical precision and occasionally buries opponents with buckets. His facilitations are the primary reason why Purdue ranked No. 14 in effective field goal percentage offense over the last month of the regular season. Whether through Trey Kaufman-Renn’s off-glass kisses or Fletcher Loyer’s 3-point plunges, the Boilermakers blitz opposing defenses relentlessly. Also excellent contesting the arc, they allow only 30.8 percent from distance.
Weaknesses: A shock to no one in the post-Zach Edey days of Purdue basketball, interior defense is sorely lacking. How Kaufman-Renn and fellow paint patroller Caleb Furst challenge down low may ultimately determine how long Purdue survives in the Dance. In its final 10 games of the regular season, the West Lafayette reps conceded an abhorrent 64.4 percent on 2-pointers and ranked No. 351 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense during that time. Barf. Additionally because of its subpar performance on the glass, formidable frontcourts pose a major matchup problem. As witnessed earlier this season in losses to Auburn, Michigan and Michigan State — all teams with dynamite interior play — the Boilers can be bludgeoned around the tin.
Outlook: Last year’s NCAA Tournament runner-up is highly unlikely to blaze a similar trail or even survive the first weekend. It simply doesn’t have the trees to compete deep into the tourney. Smith is brilliant. His savviness and scoring says Purdue is no pushover. Still, Matt Painter’s crew must consistently and successfully smoke the scoreboard to conquer its softhearted defense. In other words, one average shooting night could mean elimination. Boiler … down.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Guards are often everything in the NCAA Tournament, and the Boilers boast one of the best pure points in the country. Braden Smith is a wizard with the rock in his hands. He surveys the court with keen eyes, creates space on dribble drives, distributes passes with surgical precision and occasionally buries opponents with buckets. His facilitations are the primary reason why Purdue ranked No. 14 in effective field goal percentage offense over the last month of the regular season. Whether through Trey Kaufman-Renn’s off-glass kisses or Fletcher Loyer’s 3-point plunges, the Boilermakers blitz opposing defenses relentlessly. Also excellent contesting the arc, they allow only 30.8 percent from distance.
Weaknesses: A shock to no one in the post-Zach Edey days of Purdue basketball, interior defense is sorely lacking. How Kaufman-Renn and fellow paint patroller Caleb Furst challenge down low may ultimately determine how long Purdue survives in the Dance. In its final 10 games of the regular season, the West Lafayette reps conceded an abhorrent 64.4 percent on 2-pointers and ranked No. 351 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense during that time. Barf. Additionally because of its subpar performance on the glass, formidable frontcourts pose a major matchup problem. As witnessed earlier this season in losses to Auburn, Michigan and Michigan State — all teams with dynamite interior play — the Boilers can be bludgeoned around the tin.
Outlook: Last year’s NCAA Tournament runner-up is highly unlikely to blaze a similar trail or even survive the first weekend. It simply doesn’t have the trees to compete deep into the tourney. Smith is brilliant. His savviness and scoring says Purdue is no pushover. Still, Matt Painter’s crew must consistently and successfully smoke the scoreboard to conquer its softhearted defense. In other words, one average shooting night could mean elimination. Boiler … down.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Guards are often everything in the NCAA Tournament, and the Boilers boast one of the best pure points in the country. Braden Smith is a wizard with the rock in his hands. He surveys the court with keen eyes, creates space on dribble drives, distributes passes with surgical precision and occasionally buries opponents with buckets. His facilitations are the primary reason why Purdue ranked No. 14 in effective field goal percentage offense over the last month of the regular season. Whether through Trey Kaufman-Renn’s off-glass kisses or Fletcher Loyer’s 3-point plunges, the Boilermakers blitz opposing defenses relentlessly. Also excellent contesting the arc, they allow only 30.8 percent from distance.
Weaknesses: A shock to no one in the post-Zach Edey days of Purdue basketball, interior defense is sorely lacking. How Kaufman-Renn and fellow paint patroller Caleb Furst challenge down low may ultimately determine how long Purdue survives in the Dance. In its final 10 games of the regular season, the West Lafayette reps conceded an abhorrent 64.4 percent on 2-pointers and ranked No. 351 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense during that time. Barf. Additionally because of its subpar performance on the glass, formidable frontcourts pose a major matchup problem. As witnessed earlier this season in losses to Auburn, Michigan and Michigan State — all teams with dynamite interior play — the Boilers can be bludgeoned around the tin.
Outlook: Last year’s NCAA Tournament runner-up is highly unlikely to blaze a similar trail or even survive the first weekend. It simply doesn’t have the trees to compete deep into the tourney. Smith is brilliant. His savviness and scoring says Purdue is no pushover. Still, Matt Painter’s crew must consistently and successfully smoke the scoreboard to conquer its softhearted defense. In other words, one average shooting night could mean elimination. Boiler … down.
—Brad Evans
What to know: Purdue has solid guard play, but a forgiving defense will lead to its undoing.
Record: 22-11 (13-7 Big Ten)
Coach: Matt Painter (22-16 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Braden Smith (Big Ten Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
37.3%
Final Four projected chance
4.8%
Strengths: Brawn and balance best sum up the Crab Five’s scoring abilities. Derik Queen and Julian Reese are interior bruisers who comprise arguably one of the best frontcourts in the country. The dynamic duo is an absolute load to contain. They’re highly active on the glass, execute efficiently in the back-down game and often rock rims with thunderous dunks. Maryland’s mashers are flanked by sharpshooters Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel, a trio who greatly elevated their games down the regular-season homestretch. Over the Terps’ final 10 pre-tourney games, they converted a sensational 38.0 percent from distance. Also dedicated defenders, they enter the Dance ranked top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: Whether examining Maryland’s advanced metrics at KenPom or BartTorvik, the prominent color highlights are green, green and more green. On paper, the Terrapins show few, if any, glaring weaknesses. One nitpick would be their depth. At No. 303 in bench minutes, according to KenPom, they must avoid foul trouble. Interestingly, despite the stellar play of Queen and Reese, they ranked only No. 15 in the Big Ten regular season in 2-point percentage offense. They also slotted near the bottom of the league in assists-to-field goals made. Again, considering they have only three losses since early January, there isn’t much to fuss about.
Outlook: Thought to be competitive, though not a Big Ten contender, in the preseason, Maryland has greatly exceeded expectations. It enters the postseason sizzling on all fronts. Its execution throughout February and early March was generally clean and highly efficient across the board. As someone who holds a betting slip for the Terps to visit the Alamo and the Final Four at +1300, I don’t need to be convinced of their potential. Kevin Willard has the warriors to cash this wagering enthusiast’s ticket, and presumably Scott Van Pelt’s. They unquestionably have the goods to bloody non-believers’ brackets.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Brawn and balance best sum up the Crab Five’s scoring abilities. Derik Queen and Julian Reese are interior bruisers who comprise arguably one of the best frontcourts in the country. The dynamic duo is an absolute load to contain. They’re highly active on the glass, execute efficiently in the back-down game and often rock rims with thunderous dunks. Maryland’s mashers are flanked by sharpshooters Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel, a trio who greatly elevated their games down the regular-season homestretch. Over the Terps’ final 10 pre-tourney games, they converted a sensational 38.0 percent from distance. Also dedicated defenders, they enter the Dance ranked top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: Whether examining Maryland’s advanced metrics at KenPom or BartTorvik, the prominent color highlights are green, green and more green. On paper, the Terrapins show few, if any, glaring weaknesses. One nitpick would be their depth. At No. 303 in bench minutes, according to KenPom, they must avoid foul trouble. Interestingly, despite the stellar play of Queen and Reese, they ranked only No. 15 in the Big Ten regular season in 2-point percentage offense. They also slotted near the bottom of the league in assists-to-field goals made. Again, considering they have only three losses since early January, there isn’t much to fuss about.
Outlook: Thought to be competitive, though not a Big Ten contender, in the preseason, Maryland has greatly exceeded expectations. It enters the postseason sizzling on all fronts. Its execution throughout February and early March was generally clean and highly efficient across the board. As someone who holds a betting slip for the Terps to visit the Alamo and the Final Four at +1300, I don’t need to be convinced of their potential. Kevin Willard has the warriors to cash this wagering enthusiast’s ticket, and presumably Scott Van Pelt’s. They unquestionably have the goods to bloody non-believers’ brackets.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Brawn and balance best sum up the Crab Five’s scoring abilities. Derik Queen and Julian Reese are interior bruisers who comprise arguably one of the best frontcourts in the country. The dynamic duo is an absolute load to contain. They’re highly active on the glass, execute efficiently in the back-down game and often rock rims with thunderous dunks. Maryland’s mashers are flanked by sharpshooters Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel, a trio who greatly elevated their games down the regular-season homestretch. Over the Terps’ final 10 pre-tourney games, they converted a sensational 38.0 percent from distance. Also dedicated defenders, they enter the Dance ranked top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: Whether examining Maryland’s advanced metrics at KenPom or BartTorvik, the prominent color highlights are green, green and more green. On paper, the Terrapins show few, if any, glaring weaknesses. One nitpick would be their depth. At No. 303 in bench minutes, according to KenPom, they must avoid foul trouble. Interestingly, despite the stellar play of Queen and Reese, they ranked only No. 15 in the Big Ten regular season in 2-point percentage offense. They also slotted near the bottom of the league in assists-to-field goals made. Again, considering they have only three losses since early January, there isn’t much to fuss about.
Outlook: Thought to be competitive, though not a Big Ten contender, in the preseason, Maryland has greatly exceeded expectations. It enters the postseason sizzling on all fronts. Its execution throughout February and early March was generally clean and highly efficient across the board. As someone who holds a betting slip for the Terps to visit the Alamo and the Final Four at +1300, I don’t need to be convinced of their potential. Kevin Willard has the warriors to cash this wagering enthusiast’s ticket, and presumably Scott Van Pelt’s. They unquestionably have the goods to bloody non-believers’ brackets.
—Brad Evans
What to know: Kowabunga, dudes! The pizza-fueled Terps have the “Turtle Power” to reach San Antonio.
Record: 25-8 (14-6 Big Ten)
Coach: Kevin Willard (2-6 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Derik Queen (First Team All-Big Ten)
Sweet 16 projected chance
58.0%
Final Four projected chance
10.5%
Strengths: The Maize and Blue feature one of the most unique roster constructions in the country. FAU transfer Vladislav Goldin is an absolute bruiser in the paint. Whether rocking the rim on dunks or imposing his will on backdowns, he’s an intimidating post presence and a major reason why the Wolverines rank top-10 nationally in 2-point percentage offense. The roster’s other long drink, Yale transfer Danny Wolf, is a distinctive producer. Capable of running the point, he can humiliate defenses with dribble drives, dishes and 3-point daggers. Given its quick pace, Michigan is a squad that often creates successful mismatches. As evidenced by its string of close shaves, it also steadily found ways to win in sweaty end-game situations, including in the Big Ten tournament final.
Weaknesses: Sloppy handles are far and away the biggest bugaboo for the Wolverines. Throughout the season, they pointed pistol at foot and pulled the trigger. They committed a turnover on 20.2 percent of their possessions this season. Downright frigid from the perimeter down the regular season’s homestretch (24.6 3-point percentage), guards Tre Donaldson and Nimari Burnett must display a smooth outside stroke for UM to make a deep run. Shockingly, despite Goldin’s energetic presence, Michigan ranked north of No. 250 in defensive rebounding percentage in its final 10 games. If you get their premier lane clogger in foul trouble, the Wolverines lose significant bite around the basket.
Outlook: With Indiana rumors swirling, Dusty May signed an extension in late February to remain in Ann Arbor. He’s a phenomenal architect who recently guided Florida Atlantic to a Final Four. A second-weekend appearance is the likely ceiling for Michigan, but if its 3s start falling again and Goldin stays out of foul trouble, it could thwart that notion. Wolf is a special talent. Maybe most extraordinary is the Wolverines’ consistency at winning tight games. Chris Webber would agree, provided he doesn’t attempt to call a costly timeout.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The Maize and Blue feature one of the most unique roster constructions in the country. FAU transfer Vladislav Goldin is an absolute bruiser in the paint. Whether rocking the rim on dunks or imposing his will on backdowns, he’s an intimidating post presence and a major reason why the Wolverines rank top-10 nationally in 2-point percentage offense. The roster’s other long drink, Yale transfer Danny Wolf, is a distinctive producer. Capable of running the point, he can humiliate defenses with dribble drives, dishes and 3-point daggers. Given its quick pace, Michigan is a squad that often creates successful mismatches. As evidenced by its string of close shaves, it also steadily found ways to win in sweaty end-game situations, including in the Big Ten tournament final.
Weaknesses: Sloppy handles are far and away the biggest bugaboo for the Wolverines. Throughout the season, they pointed pistol at foot and pulled the trigger. They committed a turnover on 20.2 percent of their possessions this season. Downright frigid from the perimeter down the regular season’s homestretch (24.6 3-point percentage), guards Tre Donaldson and Nimari Burnett must display a smooth outside stroke for UM to make a deep run. Shockingly, despite Goldin’s energetic presence, Michigan ranked north of No. 250 in defensive rebounding percentage in its final 10 games. If you get their premier lane clogger in foul trouble, the Wolverines lose significant bite around the basket.
Outlook: With Indiana rumors swirling, Dusty May signed an extension in late February to remain in Ann Arbor. He’s a phenomenal architect who recently guided Florida Atlantic to a Final Four. A second-weekend appearance is the likely ceiling for Michigan, but if its 3s start falling again and Goldin stays out of foul trouble, it could thwart that notion. Wolf is a special talent. Maybe most extraordinary is the Wolverines’ consistency at winning tight games. Chris Webber would agree, provided he doesn’t attempt to call a costly timeout.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The Maize and Blue feature one of the most unique roster constructions in the country. FAU transfer Vladislav Goldin is an absolute bruiser in the paint. Whether rocking the rim on dunks or imposing his will on backdowns, he’s an intimidating post presence and a major reason why the Wolverines rank top-10 nationally in 2-point percentage offense. The roster’s other long drink, Yale transfer Danny Wolf, is a distinctive producer. Capable of running the point, he can humiliate defenses with dribble drives, dishes and 3-point daggers. Given its quick pace, Michigan is a squad that often creates successful mismatches. As evidenced by its string of close shaves, it also steadily found ways to win in sweaty end-game situations, including in the Big Ten tournament final.
Weaknesses: Sloppy handles are far and away the biggest bugaboo for the Wolverines. Throughout the season, they pointed pistol at foot and pulled the trigger. They committed a turnover on 20.2 percent of their possessions this season. Downright frigid from the perimeter down the regular season’s homestretch (24.6 3-point percentage), guards Tre Donaldson and Nimari Burnett must display a smooth outside stroke for UM to make a deep run. Shockingly, despite Goldin’s energetic presence, Michigan ranked north of No. 250 in defensive rebounding percentage in its final 10 games. If you get their premier lane clogger in foul trouble, the Wolverines lose significant bite around the basket.
Outlook: With Indiana rumors swirling, Dusty May signed an extension in late February to remain in Ann Arbor. He’s a phenomenal architect who recently guided Florida Atlantic to a Final Four. A second-weekend appearance is the likely ceiling for Michigan, but if its 3s start falling again and Goldin stays out of foul trouble, it could thwart that notion. Wolf is a special talent. Maybe most extraordinary is the Wolverines’ consistency at winning tight games. Chris Webber would agree, provided he doesn’t attempt to call a costly timeout.
—Brad Evans
What to know: With skilled 7-footers and suitable guards, Michigan presents a matchup problem for many.
Record: 25-9 (14-6 Big Ten)
Coach: Dusty May (4-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Danny Wolf (Second Team All-Big Ten)
Sweet 16 projected chance
20.5%
Final Four projected chance
1.7%
Strengths: Oregon can at times crush on offense. Though it finished the regular season a modest No. 115 in effective field goal percentage offense, it netted a terrific 1.177 points per possession. Seven-footer Nate Bittle is an interior enforcer capable of logging consistent double-doubles, while Jackson Shelstad and Keeshawn Barthelemy bring steady production along the perimeter. On the season, the sharpshooting tandem averaged 40.1 percent on 3-pointers. Excellent at the free-throw line, the Ducks are trustworthy in tight affairs. Defensively, there are concerns, but they challenged arc attempts energetically. Over the last month of the regular season, they only allowed 30.5 percent shooting from distance. With four senior starters, this team is quite experienced.
Weaknesses: The defense was often disastrous down the homestretch. Over its last 10 regular-season games, Oregon embarrassingly ranked north of No. 300 in effective field goal percentage D. Around the tin, it was decently effective, but little effort was made contesting jumpers from 10-15 feet. The Ducks finished the regular season No. 216 in midrange percentage defense. Rubbish. Missed bunnies also soured the profile. In their final seven games before the postseason, they shot only 50.4 percent on 2s. To compete, they must elevate their game around the basket on both ends.
Outlook: This isn’t Altman’s strongest product. Oregon did defeat Texas A&M and Alabama on a neutral court in November and improbably came back from a double-digit deficit at Wisconsin to upend the Badgers in late February. Still, the Ducks’ five-game losing streak midway through the conference slate lends pause. Winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament wouldn’t shock a soul, but defensive weaknesses and a plaguing case of alligator arms near the cylinder suggest that is the highest upside.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Oregon can at times crush on offense. Though it finished the regular season a modest No. 115 in effective field goal percentage offense, it netted a terrific 1.177 points per possession. Seven-footer Nate Bittle is an interior enforcer capable of logging consistent double-doubles, while Jackson Shelstad and Keeshawn Barthelemy bring steady production along the perimeter. On the season, the sharpshooting tandem averaged 40.1 percent on 3-pointers. Excellent at the free-throw line, the Ducks are trustworthy in tight affairs. Defensively, there are concerns, but they challenged arc attempts energetically. Over the last month of the regular season, they only allowed 30.5 percent shooting from distance. With four senior starters, this team is quite experienced.
Weaknesses: The defense was often disastrous down the homestretch. Over its last 10 regular-season games, Oregon embarrassingly ranked north of No. 300 in effective field goal percentage D. Around the tin, it was decently effective, but little effort was made contesting jumpers from 10-15 feet. The Ducks finished the regular season No. 216 in midrange percentage defense. Rubbish. Missed bunnies also soured the profile. In their final seven games before the postseason, they shot only 50.4 percent on 2s. To compete, they must elevate their game around the basket on both ends.
Outlook: This isn’t Altman’s strongest product. Oregon did defeat Texas A&M and Alabama on a neutral court in November and improbably came back from a double-digit deficit at Wisconsin to upend the Badgers in late February. Still, the Ducks’ five-game losing streak midway through the conference slate lends pause. Winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament wouldn’t shock a soul, but defensive weaknesses and a plaguing case of alligator arms near the cylinder suggest that is the highest upside.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Oregon can at times crush on offense. Though it finished the regular season a modest No. 115 in effective field goal percentage offense, it netted a terrific 1.177 points per possession. Seven-footer Nate Bittle is an interior enforcer capable of logging consistent double-doubles, while Jackson Shelstad and Keeshawn Barthelemy bring steady production along the perimeter. On the season, the sharpshooting tandem averaged 40.1 percent on 3-pointers. Excellent at the free-throw line, the Ducks are trustworthy in tight affairs. Defensively, there are concerns, but they challenged arc attempts energetically. Over the last month of the regular season, they only allowed 30.5 percent shooting from distance. With four senior starters, this team is quite experienced.
Weaknesses: The defense was often disastrous down the homestretch. Over its last 10 regular-season games, Oregon embarrassingly ranked north of No. 300 in effective field goal percentage D. Around the tin, it was decently effective, but little effort was made contesting jumpers from 10-15 feet. The Ducks finished the regular season No. 216 in midrange percentage defense. Rubbish. Missed bunnies also soured the profile. In their final seven games before the postseason, they shot only 50.4 percent on 2s. To compete, they must elevate their game around the basket on both ends.
Outlook: This isn’t Altman’s strongest product. Oregon did defeat Texas A&M and Alabama on a neutral court in November and improbably came back from a double-digit deficit at Wisconsin to upend the Badgers in late February. Still, the Ducks’ five-game losing streak midway through the conference slate lends pause. Winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament wouldn’t shock a soul, but defensive weaknesses and a plaguing case of alligator arms near the cylinder suggest that is the highest upside.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The Ducks can fly high offensively, but defensive defects are bound to keep them grounded.
Record: 24-9 (12-8 Big Ten)
Coach: Dana Altman (17-16 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Nate Bittle (Third Team All-Big Ten)
Sweet 16 projected chance
25.5%
Final Four projected chance
1.5%
Strengths: Clemson is one of the best offensive teams in college basketball, but no one seems to be paying attention to the Tigers. They are as balanced as a team can get on that end of the floor. Point guard Chase Hunter had a First Team All-ACC season, while Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin combined to form an elite frontcourt. Balance is the threat of Schieffelin and Lakhin, as both can play either the high or low post in a high-low offense. Jaeden Zackery, Chauncey Wiggins and Dillon Hunter provide shooting and scoring pop on the wings, and Hunter is one of the better end-of-the-clock weapons. It’s pick your poison, and that is a major reason why Clemson lost just once — in triple overtime against Georgia Tech — in the final nine weeks of the regular season.
Weaknesses: The Tigers achieved all that success this season, but it came as a member of the ACC. Also, they only played Duke, North Carolina and Louisville once each. They did pick up a win against the Blue Devils and knocked off Kentucky at home in December, but there are going to be questions about them the same way there are questions about Duke and Louisville. Is Clemson really this good? Or is their 18-2 record a by-product of playing in a watered-down conference?
Outlook: I’m in on Clemson being a real threat to make noise in March. They made a run to the Elite Eight last season, and a number of the pieces from that core remain. The players know how intense the pressure can be and what it takes to win in March. One criticism is that these Tigers don’t do anything at an elite level. While that may be true, they are elite at being well-rounded. There isn’t a specific way to beat them. They can guard. They can protect the rim. They’re difficult to run offense against. They can score inside. They hit 3s. They can win at the end of a clock. This is absolutely a team capable of pulling off an upset and making a run into the second weekend, if not further.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Clemson is one of the best offensive teams in college basketball, but no one seems to be paying attention to the Tigers. They are as balanced as a team can get on that end of the floor. Point guard Chase Hunter had a First Team All-ACC season, while Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin combined to form an elite frontcourt. Balance is the threat of Schieffelin and Lakhin, as both can play either the high or low post in a high-low offense. Jaeden Zackery, Chauncey Wiggins and Dillon Hunter provide shooting and scoring pop on the wings, and Hunter is one of the better end-of-the-clock weapons. It’s pick your poison, and that is a major reason why Clemson lost just once — in triple overtime against Georgia Tech — in the final nine weeks of the regular season.
Weaknesses: The Tigers achieved all that success this season, but it came as a member of the ACC. Also, they only played Duke, North Carolina and Louisville once each. They did pick up a win against the Blue Devils and knocked off Kentucky at home in December, but there are going to be questions about them the same way there are questions about Duke and Louisville. Is Clemson really this good? Or is their 18-2 record a by-product of playing in a watered-down conference?
Outlook: I’m in on Clemson being a real threat to make noise in March. They made a run to the Elite Eight last season, and a number of the pieces from that core remain. The players know how intense the pressure can be and what it takes to win in March. One criticism is that these Tigers don’t do anything at an elite level. While that may be true, they are elite at being well-rounded. There isn’t a specific way to beat them. They can guard. They can protect the rim. They’re difficult to run offense against. They can score inside. They hit 3s. They can win at the end of a clock. This is absolutely a team capable of pulling off an upset and making a run into the second weekend, if not further.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Clemson is one of the best offensive teams in college basketball, but no one seems to be paying attention to the Tigers. They are as balanced as a team can get on that end of the floor. Point guard Chase Hunter had a First Team All-ACC season, while Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin combined to form an elite frontcourt. Balance is the threat of Schieffelin and Lakhin, as both can play either the high or low post in a high-low offense. Jaeden Zackery, Chauncey Wiggins and Dillon Hunter provide shooting and scoring pop on the wings, and Hunter is one of the better end-of-the-clock weapons. It’s pick your poison, and that is a major reason why Clemson lost just once — in triple overtime against Georgia Tech — in the final nine weeks of the regular season.
Weaknesses: The Tigers achieved all that success this season, but it came as a member of the ACC. Also, they only played Duke, North Carolina and Louisville once each. They did pick up a win against the Blue Devils and knocked off Kentucky at home in December, but there are going to be questions about them the same way there are questions about Duke and Louisville. Is Clemson really this good? Or is their 18-2 record a by-product of playing in a watered-down conference?
Outlook: I’m in on Clemson being a real threat to make noise in March. They made a run to the Elite Eight last season, and a number of the pieces from that core remain. The players know how intense the pressure can be and what it takes to win in March. One criticism is that these Tigers don’t do anything at an elite level. While that may be true, they are elite at being well-rounded. There isn’t a specific way to beat them. They can guard. They can protect the rim. They’re difficult to run offense against. They can score inside. They hit 3s. They can win at the end of a clock. This is absolutely a team capable of pulling off an upset and making a run into the second weekend, if not further.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: There may not be a team flying further under the radar in March than Clemson.
Record: 27-6 (18-2 ACC)
Coach: Brad Brownell (6-7 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ian Schieffelin (Second Team All-ACC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
48.7%
Final Four projected chance
8.0%
Strengths: You may be surprised to hear this, but Memphis has one of the best backcourts in all of college basketball. It starts with PJ Haggerty, a big-time scorer who is one of the top guards in the country at getting to the foul line. He gives the Tigers their high floor, while Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers give them their ceiling. Both Hunter and Rogers are capable of going for 25 points, and the trio is why Memphis is one of the nation’s most dangerous 3-point shooting teams at nearly 39 percent accuracy. There is a reason to be worried here. Hunter injured his foot in the semifinals of the AAC tournament and did not play in the final. His status for the tournament is in jeopardy. The flip side is the space that gets created in the paint by the threat beyond the arc has allowed Dain Dainja to develop into one of the better frontcourt weapons. A refrigerator with ballerina feet, Dainja has a soft touch around the basket, and his post moves have created an entirely different way for the Tigers to win games.
Weaknesses: One of the trends in college basketball is for teams to focus on dominating in three key areas: shooting the 3, forcing turnovers and winning the rebounding battle. In short, the theory is that doing so maximizes the number of offensive possessions available and the expected points per shot on those possessions. Memphis is an elite 3-point shooting team, but it ranks outside the top 275 in turnover rate and the defensive rebounding percentage. If the Tigers run into a team that can pressure and get to the offensive glass, they will be in trouble.
Outlook: The NCAA Tournament is based on matchups, draws and, frankly, a little bit of luck. If you are a No. 3 seed in a region where the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds get upset in the first weekend, you’re lucky. If you end up in a region with a bunch of teams you match up well against, you have a better chance of making a deep run than someone who doesn’t. Memphis is a team that, on paper, looks to be matchup-dependent. Texas A&M, St. John’s, Houston and teams of that ilk can give the Tigers some problems. At the same time, they have three players on the perimeter who are capable of winning a game all on their own. Wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss weren’t flukes. A Final Four is a big ask, but Memphis certainly can make some noise and get to a second weekend.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: You may be surprised to hear this, but Memphis has one of the best backcourts in all of college basketball. It starts with PJ Haggerty, a big-time scorer who is one of the top guards in the country at getting to the foul line. He gives the Tigers their high floor, while Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers give them their ceiling. Both Hunter and Rogers are capable of going for 25 points, and the trio is why Memphis is one of the nation’s most dangerous 3-point shooting teams at nearly 39 percent accuracy. There is a reason to be worried here. Hunter injured his foot in the semifinals of the AAC tournament and did not play in the final. His status for the tournament is in jeopardy. The flip side is the space that gets created in the paint by the threat beyond the arc has allowed Dain Dainja to develop into one of the better frontcourt weapons. A refrigerator with ballerina feet, Dainja has a soft touch around the basket, and his post moves have created an entirely different way for the Tigers to win games.
Weaknesses: One of the trends in college basketball is for teams to focus on dominating in three key areas: shooting the 3, forcing turnovers and winning the rebounding battle. In short, the theory is that doing so maximizes the number of offensive possessions available and the expected points per shot on those possessions. Memphis is an elite 3-point shooting team, but it ranks outside the top 275 in turnover rate and the defensive rebounding percentage. If the Tigers run into a team that can pressure and get to the offensive glass, they will be in trouble.
Outlook: The NCAA Tournament is based on matchups, draws and, frankly, a little bit of luck. If you are a No. 3 seed in a region where the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds get upset in the first weekend, you’re lucky. If you end up in a region with a bunch of teams you match up well against, you have a better chance of making a deep run than someone who doesn’t. Memphis is a team that, on paper, looks to be matchup-dependent. Texas A&M, St. John’s, Houston and teams of that ilk can give the Tigers some problems. At the same time, they have three players on the perimeter who are capable of winning a game all on their own. Wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss weren’t flukes. A Final Four is a big ask, but Memphis certainly can make some noise and get to a second weekend.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: You may be surprised to hear this, but Memphis has one of the best backcourts in all of college basketball. It starts with PJ Haggerty, a big-time scorer who is one of the top guards in the country at getting to the foul line. He gives the Tigers their high floor, while Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers give them their ceiling. Both Hunter and Rogers are capable of going for 25 points, and the trio is why Memphis is one of the nation’s most dangerous 3-point shooting teams at nearly 39 percent accuracy. There is a reason to be worried here. Hunter injured his foot in the semifinals of the AAC tournament and did not play in the final. His status for the tournament is in jeopardy. The flip side is the space that gets created in the paint by the threat beyond the arc has allowed Dain Dainja to develop into one of the better frontcourt weapons. A refrigerator with ballerina feet, Dainja has a soft touch around the basket, and his post moves have created an entirely different way for the Tigers to win games.
Weaknesses: One of the trends in college basketball is for teams to focus on dominating in three key areas: shooting the 3, forcing turnovers and winning the rebounding battle. In short, the theory is that doing so maximizes the number of offensive possessions available and the expected points per shot on those possessions. Memphis is an elite 3-point shooting team, but it ranks outside the top 275 in turnover rate and the defensive rebounding percentage. If the Tigers run into a team that can pressure and get to the offensive glass, they will be in trouble.
Outlook: The NCAA Tournament is based on matchups, draws and, frankly, a little bit of luck. If you are a No. 3 seed in a region where the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds get upset in the first weekend, you’re lucky. If you end up in a region with a bunch of teams you match up well against, you have a better chance of making a deep run than someone who doesn’t. Memphis is a team that, on paper, looks to be matchup-dependent. Texas A&M, St. John’s, Houston and teams of that ilk can give the Tigers some problems. At the same time, they have three players on the perimeter who are capable of winning a game all on their own. Wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss weren’t flukes. A Final Four is a big ask, but Memphis certainly can make some noise and get to a second weekend.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: This might finally be the year Penny Hardaway’s program makes a March run.
Record: 29-5 (16-2 AAC)
Coach: Penny Hardaway (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: PJ Haggerty (First Team All-AAC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
13.4%
Final Four projected chance
1.0%
Strengths: The gents from Oxford have the ability to score in bunches. Yes, they ranked above No. 240 in effective field goal percentage offense over the regular season’s final month, but on a points per possession basis, they were significantly better (1.183). Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray are accurate marksmen who both shoot over 38 percent from distance. Malik Dia, Dre Davis and sixth man Jaemyn Brakefield are significant reasons why the Rebels are top-25 nationally in near proximity percentage, according to Haslametrics. Defensively, they thrive on applying pressure and traps. On the season, they forced an opponent turnover on over 20 percent of their possessions. Those mistakes often led to conversions in transition. Preferring a brisk pace, Beard’s experienced bunch aims to exhaust.
Weaknesses: Checking in at No. 329 in effective height, Ole Miss doesn’t exactly trot out dudes capable of reaching the top shelf. Its lack of size is a glaring flaw. Outmuscled repeatedly in the regular season, the Rebels ranked outside the top 225 in offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. As proven by Auburn, Memphis, Mississippi State and others, they can get destroyed on the glass. Also inadequate defending the perimeter over its final 10 games (39.4 3-point percentage allowed), they’re flammable in several unfortunate areas.
Outlook: As witnessed at previous stops, Beard is capable of invigorating teams widely perceived as average and guiding them to previously believed unreachable territory. This Ole Miss club, however, throws soft hands in the interior. Bullying frontcourts will brutalize it. That weakness and a crumbling perimeter D has the Rebels on upset alert. The advanced data sketches a grim picture.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The gents from Oxford have the ability to score in bunches. Yes, they ranked above No. 240 in effective field goal percentage offense over the regular season’s final month, but on a points per possession basis, they were significantly better (1.183). Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray are accurate marksmen who both shoot over 38 percent from distance. Malik Dia, Dre Davis and sixth man Jaemyn Brakefield are significant reasons why the Rebels are top-25 nationally in near proximity percentage, according to Haslametrics. Defensively, they thrive on applying pressure and traps. On the season, they forced an opponent turnover on over 20 percent of their possessions. Those mistakes often led to conversions in transition. Preferring a brisk pace, Beard’s experienced bunch aims to exhaust.
Weaknesses: Checking in at No. 329 in effective height, Ole Miss doesn’t exactly trot out dudes capable of reaching the top shelf. Its lack of size is a glaring flaw. Outmuscled repeatedly in the regular season, the Rebels ranked outside the top 225 in offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. As proven by Auburn, Memphis, Mississippi State and others, they can get destroyed on the glass. Also inadequate defending the perimeter over its final 10 games (39.4 3-point percentage allowed), they’re flammable in several unfortunate areas.
Outlook: As witnessed at previous stops, Beard is capable of invigorating teams widely perceived as average and guiding them to previously believed unreachable territory. This Ole Miss club, however, throws soft hands in the interior. Bullying frontcourts will brutalize it. That weakness and a crumbling perimeter D has the Rebels on upset alert. The advanced data sketches a grim picture.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The gents from Oxford have the ability to score in bunches. Yes, they ranked above No. 240 in effective field goal percentage offense over the regular season’s final month, but on a points per possession basis, they were significantly better (1.183). Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray are accurate marksmen who both shoot over 38 percent from distance. Malik Dia, Dre Davis and sixth man Jaemyn Brakefield are significant reasons why the Rebels are top-25 nationally in near proximity percentage, according to Haslametrics. Defensively, they thrive on applying pressure and traps. On the season, they forced an opponent turnover on over 20 percent of their possessions. Those mistakes often led to conversions in transition. Preferring a brisk pace, Beard’s experienced bunch aims to exhaust.
Weaknesses: Checking in at No. 329 in effective height, Ole Miss doesn’t exactly trot out dudes capable of reaching the top shelf. Its lack of size is a glaring flaw. Outmuscled repeatedly in the regular season, the Rebels ranked outside the top 225 in offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. As proven by Auburn, Memphis, Mississippi State and others, they can get destroyed on the glass. Also inadequate defending the perimeter over its final 10 games (39.4 3-point percentage allowed), they’re flammable in several unfortunate areas.
Outlook: As witnessed at previous stops, Beard is capable of invigorating teams widely perceived as average and guiding them to previously believed unreachable territory. This Ole Miss club, however, throws soft hands in the interior. Bullying frontcourts will brutalize it. That weakness and a crumbling perimeter D has the Rebels on upset alert. The advanced data sketches a grim picture.
—Brad Evans
What to know: Chris Beard is a master tactician, but his Rebels fire way too many blanks in key areas.
Record: 22-11 (10-8 SEC)
Coach: Chris Beard (12-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Sean Pedulla (Third Team All-SEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
17.8%
Final Four projected chance
1.9%
Strengths: Filling up the cup is a BYU speciality. Comfortable playing in half-court grinders or all-out sprints, the Cougars are well-drilled, unselfish and highly efficient. They enter the postseason No. 5 in effective field goal percentage, netting 37 percent on 3-pointers and over 59 percent on 2s. Also, they rank top-30 nationally in assist to field goals made, slicing and dicing teams like Bobby Flay making a perfectly cooked prime rib. Peaking at the right time, Kevin Young’s crew ranked top-10 in overall BARTHAG rating and Wins Above Bubble on BartTorvik over the regular season’s final month. With one of the tallest teams in the Dance, they’re also supreme glass commanders. On the season, they finished inside the top 70 nationally in offensive and defensive rebound percentage. Junior center Keba Keita is a mauler. As a cherry on top, 41.8 percent of BYU’s minutes were played off the bench. In other words, it doesn’t lose much punch across rotational lines.
Weaknesses: D is clearly optional for Jimmer Fredette U. Over its final 10 regular-season games, it ranked an ultra friendly No. 164 in effective field goal percent defense, surrendering 50.6 percent inside the arc and 34.1 percent beyond it. The Cougars must communicate, play connected and body up to overachieve. Free-throw shooting is another glaring shortcoming. BYU converted a paltry 69.4 percent at the charity stripe, where only 15.5 percent of its points were sourced (No. 356 in the nation). That’s partially a function of its overall offensive efficiency, but drawing whistles and taking advantage at the line needs to be prioritized.
Outlook: Winners in nine of the last 10, the Cougars enter the tournament habanero hot. Over 47 percent of their jacks come from 3-point range. When owning the arc and playing just average defense, they can compete with almost anyone. Their size, depth and overall offensive execution are attractive pluses. If NBA-bound point guard Egor Demin can play under control, BYU has the goods to taste sweetness for only the third time since 1981.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Filling up the cup is a BYU speciality. Comfortable playing in half-court grinders or all-out sprints, the Cougars are well-drilled, unselfish and highly efficient. They enter the postseason No. 5 in effective field goal percentage, netting 37 percent on 3-pointers and over 59 percent on 2s. Also, they rank top-30 nationally in assist to field goals made, slicing and dicing teams like Bobby Flay making a perfectly cooked prime rib. Peaking at the right time, Kevin Young’s crew ranked top-10 in overall BARTHAG rating and Wins Above Bubble on BartTorvik over the regular season’s final month. With one of the tallest teams in the Dance, they’re also supreme glass commanders. On the season, they finished inside the top 70 nationally in offensive and defensive rebound percentage. Junior center Keba Keita is a mauler. As a cherry on top, 41.8 percent of BYU’s minutes were played off the bench. In other words, it doesn’t lose much punch across rotational lines.
Weaknesses: D is clearly optional for Jimmer Fredette U. Over its final 10 regular-season games, it ranked an ultra friendly No. 164 in effective field goal percent defense, surrendering 50.6 percent inside the arc and 34.1 percent beyond it. The Cougars must communicate, play connected and body up to overachieve. Free-throw shooting is another glaring shortcoming. BYU converted a paltry 69.4 percent at the charity stripe, where only 15.5 percent of its points were sourced (No. 356 in the nation). That’s partially a function of its overall offensive efficiency, but drawing whistles and taking advantage at the line needs to be prioritized.
Outlook: Winners in nine of the last 10, the Cougars enter the tournament habanero hot. Over 47 percent of their jacks come from 3-point range. When owning the arc and playing just average defense, they can compete with almost anyone. Their size, depth and overall offensive execution are attractive pluses. If NBA-bound point guard Egor Demin can play under control, BYU has the goods to taste sweetness for only the third time since 1981.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Filling up the cup is a BYU speciality. Comfortable playing in half-court grinders or all-out sprints, the Cougars are well-drilled, unselfish and highly efficient. They enter the postseason No. 5 in effective field goal percentage, netting 37 percent on 3-pointers and over 59 percent on 2s. Also, they rank top-30 nationally in assist to field goals made, slicing and dicing teams like Bobby Flay making a perfectly cooked prime rib. Peaking at the right time, Kevin Young’s crew ranked top-10 in overall BARTHAG rating and Wins Above Bubble on BartTorvik over the regular season’s final month. With one of the tallest teams in the Dance, they’re also supreme glass commanders. On the season, they finished inside the top 70 nationally in offensive and defensive rebound percentage. Junior center Keba Keita is a mauler. As a cherry on top, 41.8 percent of BYU’s minutes were played off the bench. In other words, it doesn’t lose much punch across rotational lines.
Weaknesses: D is clearly optional for Jimmer Fredette U. Over its final 10 regular-season games, it ranked an ultra friendly No. 164 in effective field goal percent defense, surrendering 50.6 percent inside the arc and 34.1 percent beyond it. The Cougars must communicate, play connected and body up to overachieve. Free-throw shooting is another glaring shortcoming. BYU converted a paltry 69.4 percent at the charity stripe, where only 15.5 percent of its points were sourced (No. 356 in the nation). That’s partially a function of its overall offensive efficiency, but drawing whistles and taking advantage at the line needs to be prioritized.
Outlook: Winners in nine of the last 10, the Cougars enter the tournament habanero hot. Over 47 percent of their jacks come from 3-point range. When owning the arc and playing just average defense, they can compete with almost anyone. Their size, depth and overall offensive execution are attractive pluses. If NBA-bound point guard Egor Demin can play under control, BYU has the goods to taste sweetness for only the third time since 1981.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The pride of Provo is an offensive force with the scoring acumen to string multiple wins.
Record: 24-9 (14-6 Big 12)
Coach: Kevin Young (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Richie Saunders (First Team All-Big 12)
Sweet 16 projected chance
23.4%
Final Four projected chance
2.7%
Strengths: Illinois owns the length and athleticism to compete against almost anyone. Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley are legitimate NBA lottery prospects who stuff the stat sheet through facilitations, dribble drives and arc splashes. As a collective, the Illini are capable of defending with the nation’s best. Seven-footer Tomislav Ivisic is a versatile rim protector who is disruptive on both ends. A phenomenal rebounding team, Illinois generates abundant second and third chances. When getting downhill, its kick-out game and free-throw conversions can demoralize the competition.
Weaknesses: The Illini are kings of inconsistency. Yes, they’re talented enough to blow out early round foes by 30. However, their often unwavering devotion to the 3-pointer is extremely problematic. When they’ve settled for outside jumpers instead of attacking the rim, it’s led to prolonged scoring droughts. Down the regular season’s homestretch, Illinois also loosened defensively, ranking No. 286 in opponent’s eFG% over its final eight games. That slide was only exacerbated by an alarming lack of frontcourt depth. Turnovers also took a toll. Frankly, predicting where the roulette wheel stops is an easier exercise than figuring out which Illini team shows up.
Outlook: Enigmatic best describes Illinois. When bringing its best, it can flatten opponents in convincing fashion. However, when complacently chucking 3s and not staunchly defending, the Illini are susceptible to a knockout. The Orange and Blue recaptured their early season mojo the final two weeks of the regular season. Most importantly, key reserve Morez Johnson Jr. returned to action in the Big Ten tournament. With confidence regained and given their baseline talents, the Illini are quite possibly the most dangerous mid-seeded team in the entire Dance.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Illinois owns the length and athleticism to compete against almost anyone. Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley are legitimate NBA lottery prospects who stuff the stat sheet through facilitations, dribble drives and arc splashes. As a collective, the Illini are capable of defending with the nation’s best. Seven-footer Tomislav Ivisic is a versatile rim protector who is disruptive on both ends. A phenomenal rebounding team, Illinois generates abundant second and third chances. When getting downhill, its kick-out game and free-throw conversions can demoralize the competition.
Weaknesses: The Illini are kings of inconsistency. Yes, they’re talented enough to blow out early round foes by 30. However, their often unwavering devotion to the 3-pointer is extremely problematic. When they’ve settled for outside jumpers instead of attacking the rim, it’s led to prolonged scoring droughts. Down the regular season’s homestretch, Illinois also loosened defensively, ranking No. 286 in opponent’s eFG% over its final eight games. That slide was only exacerbated by an alarming lack of frontcourt depth. Turnovers also took a toll. Frankly, predicting where the roulette wheel stops is an easier exercise than figuring out which Illini team shows up.
Outlook: Enigmatic best describes Illinois. When bringing its best, it can flatten opponents in convincing fashion. However, when complacently chucking 3s and not staunchly defending, the Illini are susceptible to a knockout. The Orange and Blue recaptured their early season mojo the final two weeks of the regular season. Most importantly, key reserve Morez Johnson Jr. returned to action in the Big Ten tournament. With confidence regained and given their baseline talents, the Illini are quite possibly the most dangerous mid-seeded team in the entire Dance.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Illinois owns the length and athleticism to compete against almost anyone. Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley are legitimate NBA lottery prospects who stuff the stat sheet through facilitations, dribble drives and arc splashes. As a collective, the Illini are capable of defending with the nation’s best. Seven-footer Tomislav Ivisic is a versatile rim protector who is disruptive on both ends. A phenomenal rebounding team, Illinois generates abundant second and third chances. When getting downhill, its kick-out game and free-throw conversions can demoralize the competition.
Weaknesses: The Illini are kings of inconsistency. Yes, they’re talented enough to blow out early round foes by 30. However, their often unwavering devotion to the 3-pointer is extremely problematic. When they’ve settled for outside jumpers instead of attacking the rim, it’s led to prolonged scoring droughts. Down the regular season’s homestretch, Illinois also loosened defensively, ranking No. 286 in opponent’s eFG% over its final eight games. That slide was only exacerbated by an alarming lack of frontcourt depth. Turnovers also took a toll. Frankly, predicting where the roulette wheel stops is an easier exercise than figuring out which Illini team shows up.
Outlook: Enigmatic best describes Illinois. When bringing its best, it can flatten opponents in convincing fashion. However, when complacently chucking 3s and not staunchly defending, the Illini are susceptible to a knockout. The Orange and Blue recaptured their early season mojo the final two weeks of the regular season. Most importantly, key reserve Morez Johnson Jr. returned to action in the Big Ten tournament. With confidence regained and given their baseline talents, the Illini are quite possibly the most dangerous mid-seeded team in the entire Dance.
—Brad Evans
What to know: Illinois is loaded with talent, but its erratic execution suggests a wide range of possible outcomes.
Record: 21-12 (12-8 Big Ten)
Coach: Brad Underwood (7-8 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kasparas Jakucionis (Third Team All-Big Ten)
Sweet 16 projected chance
40.4%
Final Four projected chance
5.5%
Strengths: Missouri is one of the most potent offensive units in the country, and what makes the Tigers so unique and difficult to deal with is that they don’t have just one guy who can beat you. They have five. Mark Mitchell is arguably their best player because he gives them lineup versatility. The 6-foot-9 junior is a matchup problem on both ends, and his passing skills have really developed. Caleb Grill is their other top scorer and one of the most dangerous shooters in college basketball, but he comes off the bench. Also, Tamar Bates is a potential NBA 3-and-D wing who is enjoying a 50-40-90 season, Anthony Robinson II was the best player on the floor in Missouri’s win over Alabama and Tony Perkins is a wrecking ball in transition. Dennis Gates has so many weapons and so many capable 3-point shooters, it’s no wonder this group has spent most of the season in the top 10 of KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.
Weaknesses: The knock on the Tigers, analytically speaking, is on the defensive side. They ended the regular season ranked 74th in defensive efficiency, largely due to the fact that they are not a great defensive rebounding team and can be too foul prone at times. The combination of mediocre perimeter defenders and the lack of a true rim protector doesn’t help, either. Put simply: Bad offensive teams have hung between 80-90 points on them. That’s not ideal, but there’s an argument to be made that simply looking at Missouri’s defensive analytics doesn’t tell the whole story.
Outlook: I am bullish on the Tigers’ chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, largely because I think their defense is better than the numbers indicate. Missouri switches up defensive game plans as much as any team in the nation. Gates is a disciple of Leonard Hamilton at Florida State, so he’ll run switching man-to-man and different zone looks. The Tigers can play straight-up man defense, and they can deploy Mitchell as a small-ball five or as a three in a much bigger lineup. They are going to be one of the most difficult teams to prepare for on a short turnaround because of how they can confuse you defensively. When you combine the defensive versatility with one of America’s most explosive offenses, this group can beat anyone. Ask Alabama. Ask Florida. They learned the hard way.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Missouri is one of the most potent offensive units in the country, and what makes the Tigers so unique and difficult to deal with is that they don’t have just one guy who can beat you. They have five. Mark Mitchell is arguably their best player because he gives them lineup versatility. The 6-foot-9 junior is a matchup problem on both ends, and his passing skills have really developed. Caleb Grill is their other top scorer and one of the most dangerous shooters in college basketball, but he comes off the bench. Also, Tamar Bates is a potential NBA 3-and-D wing who is enjoying a 50-40-90 season, Anthony Robinson II was the best player on the floor in Missouri’s win over Alabama and Tony Perkins is a wrecking ball in transition. Dennis Gates has so many weapons and so many capable 3-point shooters, it’s no wonder this group has spent most of the season in the top 10 of KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.
Weaknesses: The knock on the Tigers, analytically speaking, is on the defensive side. They ended the regular season ranked 74th in defensive efficiency, largely due to the fact that they are not a great defensive rebounding team and can be too foul prone at times. The combination of mediocre perimeter defenders and the lack of a true rim protector doesn’t help, either. Put simply: Bad offensive teams have hung between 80-90 points on them. That’s not ideal, but there’s an argument to be made that simply looking at Missouri’s defensive analytics doesn’t tell the whole story.
Outlook: I am bullish on the Tigers’ chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, largely because I think their defense is better than the numbers indicate. Missouri switches up defensive game plans as much as any team in the nation. Gates is a disciple of Leonard Hamilton at Florida State, so he’ll run switching man-to-man and different zone looks. The Tigers can play straight-up man defense, and they can deploy Mitchell as a small-ball five or as a three in a much bigger lineup. They are going to be one of the most difficult teams to prepare for on a short turnaround because of how they can confuse you defensively. When you combine the defensive versatility with one of America’s most explosive offenses, this group can beat anyone. Ask Alabama. Ask Florida. They learned the hard way.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Missouri is one of the most potent offensive units in the country, and what makes the Tigers so unique and difficult to deal with is that they don’t have just one guy who can beat you. They have five. Mark Mitchell is arguably their best player because he gives them lineup versatility. The 6-foot-9 junior is a matchup problem on both ends, and his passing skills have really developed. Caleb Grill is their other top scorer and one of the most dangerous shooters in college basketball, but he comes off the bench. Also, Tamar Bates is a potential NBA 3-and-D wing who is enjoying a 50-40-90 season, Anthony Robinson II was the best player on the floor in Missouri’s win over Alabama and Tony Perkins is a wrecking ball in transition. Dennis Gates has so many weapons and so many capable 3-point shooters, it’s no wonder this group has spent most of the season in the top 10 of KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.
Weaknesses: The knock on the Tigers, analytically speaking, is on the defensive side. They ended the regular season ranked 74th in defensive efficiency, largely due to the fact that they are not a great defensive rebounding team and can be too foul prone at times. The combination of mediocre perimeter defenders and the lack of a true rim protector doesn’t help, either. Put simply: Bad offensive teams have hung between 80-90 points on them. That’s not ideal, but there’s an argument to be made that simply looking at Missouri’s defensive analytics doesn’t tell the whole story.
Outlook: I am bullish on the Tigers’ chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, largely because I think their defense is better than the numbers indicate. Missouri switches up defensive game plans as much as any team in the nation. Gates is a disciple of Leonard Hamilton at Florida State, so he’ll run switching man-to-man and different zone looks. The Tigers can play straight-up man defense, and they can deploy Mitchell as a small-ball five or as a three in a much bigger lineup. They are going to be one of the most difficult teams to prepare for on a short turnaround because of how they can confuse you defensively. When you combine the defensive versatility with one of America’s most explosive offenses, this group can beat anyone. Ask Alabama. Ask Florida. They learned the hard way.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Dennis Gates has done an incredible job turning Mizzou from bottom feeder to Final Four threat.
Record: 22-11 (10-8 SEC)
Coach: Dennis Gates (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Mark Mitchell (Third Team All-SEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
23.4%
Final Four projected chance
3.6%
Strengths: No team in college basketball maximizes possessions like Marquette. The Golden Eagles are top 15 in the country in offensive turnover rate and defensive turnover rate. The only other team that can make that claim since 2017 is last year’s Houston squad, which was on track to make the Final Four before Jamal Shead’s injury. The catalyst for Marquette is its defensive ball pressure. Stevie Mitchell is an elite on-ball defender, and so is Chase Ross. Shaka Smart isn’t exactly reigniting the “Havoc” defensive system from his VCU days, but he is not afraid to lean into the pressure his guards can provide on opposing backcourts.
Weaknesses: The Golden Eagles struggle with rim protection. Ben Gold has not taken the leap many expected, and the young bigs are … well, they’re young. One of the downsides of a defense that gambles for turnovers is the lane is left open — opponents shoot 52 percent on 2-pointers. The other notable issue for the Golden Eagles is they don’t shoot 3-pointers as well as it’s needed. Marquete has hovered right around 32 percent from beyond the arc all season. The offense is predicated on creating space for Kam Jones to operate, and if shooters aren’t making shots, the space isn’t there.
Outlook: Jones was the best player in college basketball in November. He was playing like a First Team All-American through January, but he has come back to earth a bit in conference play. Part of that is due to league foes knowing the scouting report on him better than anyone, but that would matter less if the senior guard’s supporting cast was playing at a higher level. Jones is capable of putting this team on his back and carrying them to the second weekend, if not deeper. But for that to happen, David Joplin and Chase Ross must play well. If they don’t, Marquette is a team that could get picked off in the first round.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: No team in college basketball maximizes possessions like Marquette. The Golden Eagles are top 15 in the country in offensive turnover rate and defensive turnover rate. The only other team that can make that claim since 2017 is last year’s Houston squad, which was on track to make the Final Four before Jamal Shead’s injury. The catalyst for Marquette is its defensive ball pressure. Stevie Mitchell is an elite on-ball defender, and so is Chase Ross. Shaka Smart isn’t exactly reigniting the “Havoc” defensive system from his VCU days, but he is not afraid to lean into the pressure his guards can provide on opposing backcourts.
Weaknesses: The Golden Eagles struggle with rim protection. Ben Gold has not taken the leap many expected, and the young bigs are … well, they’re young. One of the downsides of a defense that gambles for turnovers is the lane is left open — opponents shoot 52 percent on 2-pointers. The other notable issue for the Golden Eagles is they don’t shoot 3-pointers as well as it’s needed. Marquete has hovered right around 32 percent from beyond the arc all season. The offense is predicated on creating space for Kam Jones to operate, and if shooters aren’t making shots, the space isn’t there.
Outlook: Jones was the best player in college basketball in November. He was playing like a First Team All-American through January, but he has come back to earth a bit in conference play. Part of that is due to league foes knowing the scouting report on him better than anyone, but that would matter less if the senior guard’s supporting cast was playing at a higher level. Jones is capable of putting this team on his back and carrying them to the second weekend, if not deeper. But for that to happen, David Joplin and Chase Ross must play well. If they don’t, Marquette is a team that could get picked off in the first round.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: No team in college basketball maximizes possessions like Marquette. The Golden Eagles are top 15 in the country in offensive turnover rate and defensive turnover rate. The only other team that can make that claim since 2017 is last year’s Houston squad, which was on track to make the Final Four before Jamal Shead’s injury. The catalyst for Marquette is its defensive ball pressure. Stevie Mitchell is an elite on-ball defender, and so is Chase Ross. Shaka Smart isn’t exactly reigniting the “Havoc” defensive system from his VCU days, but he is not afraid to lean into the pressure his guards can provide on opposing backcourts.
Weaknesses: The Golden Eagles struggle with rim protection. Ben Gold has not taken the leap many expected, and the young bigs are … well, they’re young. One of the downsides of a defense that gambles for turnovers is the lane is left open — opponents shoot 52 percent on 2-pointers. The other notable issue for the Golden Eagles is they don’t shoot 3-pointers as well as it’s needed. Marquete has hovered right around 32 percent from beyond the arc all season. The offense is predicated on creating space for Kam Jones to operate, and if shooters aren’t making shots, the space isn’t there.
Outlook: Jones was the best player in college basketball in November. He was playing like a First Team All-American through January, but he has come back to earth a bit in conference play. Part of that is due to league foes knowing the scouting report on him better than anyone, but that would matter less if the senior guard’s supporting cast was playing at a higher level. Jones is capable of putting this team on his back and carrying them to the second weekend, if not deeper. But for that to happen, David Joplin and Chase Ross must play well. If they don’t, Marquette is a team that could get picked off in the first round.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: As good as Marquette was at the start of the season, it has struggled of late.
Record: 23-10 (13-7 Big East)
Coach: Shaka Smart (10-11 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kam Jones (First Team All-Big East)
Sweet 16 projected chance
20.0%
Final Four projected chance
2.9%
Strengths: Saint Mary’s features positional size and senior leadership, but what stands out the most is its defense and rebounding. The Gaels are second only to Texas A&M in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing over 40 percent of their misses. They also don’t allow many offensive boards, ranking No. 1 in rebound margin per game (10). The defense is just as solid with its No. 7 efficiency ranking on KenPom thanks to senior center Mitchell Saxen, the WCC Defensive Player of the Year. Saint Mary’s also has the back-to-back WCC Player of the Year in Augustas Marciulionis, who averages 14.3 points and 6.1 assists (top-20 in the nation). This team is methodical in its approach, and so far, it has worked.
Weaknesses: The offense can stall at times, and it isn’t built to come from behind with its lack of 3-point shooting, as evidenced by the 0-for-16 nightmare from deep in the WCC Tournament title game loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels’ 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio is in the 300s nationally, and they shoot just 32.3 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks in the 200s. Their pace offensively is also 359th out of 364 Division I teams, leaving not much margin for error on that end. Their highest margin of defeat this season came against Utah State and Gonzaga, who both have a pace in the top 55.
Outlook: Defense and rebounding both travel, and that bodes well for Saint Mary’s. If it’s caught in a slugfest, there’s no reason to believe it can’t win. But if the Gaels play a fast-paced, offensive-minded team, will their style prevail? It’s hard to tell. That’s probably the biggest question. They have Sweet 16 upside if they can avoid a shootout.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Saint Mary’s features positional size and senior leadership, but what stands out the most is its defense and rebounding. The Gaels are second only to Texas A&M in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing over 40 percent of their misses. They also don’t allow many offensive boards, ranking No. 1 in rebound margin per game (10). The defense is just as solid with its No. 7 efficiency ranking on KenPom thanks to senior center Mitchell Saxen, the WCC Defensive Player of the Year. Saint Mary’s also has the back-to-back WCC Player of the Year in Augustas Marciulionis, who averages 14.3 points and 6.1 assists (top-20 in the nation). This team is methodical in its approach, and so far, it has worked.
Weaknesses: The offense can stall at times, and it isn’t built to come from behind with its lack of 3-point shooting, as evidenced by the 0-for-16 nightmare from deep in the WCC Tournament title game loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels’ 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio is in the 300s nationally, and they shoot just 32.3 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks in the 200s. Their pace offensively is also 359th out of 364 Division I teams, leaving not much margin for error on that end. Their highest margin of defeat this season came against Utah State and Gonzaga, who both have a pace in the top 55.
Outlook: Defense and rebounding both travel, and that bodes well for Saint Mary’s. If it’s caught in a slugfest, there’s no reason to believe it can’t win. But if the Gaels play a fast-paced, offensive-minded team, will their style prevail? It’s hard to tell. That’s probably the biggest question. They have Sweet 16 upside if they can avoid a shootout.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Saint Mary’s features positional size and senior leadership, but what stands out the most is its defense and rebounding. The Gaels are second only to Texas A&M in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing over 40 percent of their misses. They also don’t allow many offensive boards, ranking No. 1 in rebound margin per game (10). The defense is just as solid with its No. 7 efficiency ranking on KenPom thanks to senior center Mitchell Saxen, the WCC Defensive Player of the Year. Saint Mary’s also has the back-to-back WCC Player of the Year in Augustas Marciulionis, who averages 14.3 points and 6.1 assists (top-20 in the nation). This team is methodical in its approach, and so far, it has worked.
Weaknesses: The offense can stall at times, and it isn’t built to come from behind with its lack of 3-point shooting, as evidenced by the 0-for-16 nightmare from deep in the WCC Tournament title game loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels’ 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio is in the 300s nationally, and they shoot just 32.3 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks in the 200s. Their pace offensively is also 359th out of 364 Division I teams, leaving not much margin for error on that end. Their highest margin of defeat this season came against Utah State and Gonzaga, who both have a pace in the top 55.
Outlook: Defense and rebounding both travel, and that bodes well for Saint Mary’s. If it’s caught in a slugfest, there’s no reason to believe it can’t win. But if the Gaels play a fast-paced, offensive-minded team, will their style prevail? It’s hard to tell. That’s probably the biggest question. They have Sweet 16 upside if they can avoid a shootout.
—Sam Lance
What to know: The Gaels grind it out with defense and rebounding, but they are prone to scoring lulls.
Record: 28-5 (17-1 WCC)
Coach: Randy Bennett (6-10 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Augustas Marciulionis (WCC Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
34.6%
Final Four projected chance
7.1%
Strengths: The Westwood crew packs a considerable punch when possessing the rock. UCLA ranked in the top five in a myriad of offensive categories in Big Ten play and entered the postseason No. 24 in adjusted offensive efficiency in its past seven games at a potent 1.208 points per possession. The Bruins converted a ridiculous 40.4 percent on 3-pointers over the regular season’s last month. Overall, bombers Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr. and Skyy Clark each shot at least 38 percent from deep. The emergence of 7-foot-3 Spaniard Aidy Mara added much needed balance down the stretch. He’s a major reason why UCLA slotted inside the top 75 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage over the last 30 days of the regular season. Outstandingly, they also forced a turnover on nearly 19 percent of opponent possessions over that span.
Weaknesses: Mick Cronin’s club does apply disruptive pressure, but overall, its defense is somewhat substandard. During the regular season’s final month, it ranked only No. 175 in effective field goal percentage D. Again, Mara’s presence helped, but at No. 203 in 2-point percentage defense on the season, opponents often attacked the rim with measurable success. Free-throw shooting is another noticeable concern. During the regular season, John Wooden U converted just 70.5 percent from the charity stripe, ranking No. 241 in the nation. Generating whistles and manufacturing points on freebies aren’t the Bruins’ strongsuits, and that will be problematic in tight affairs.
Outlook: UCLA mostly performed well in its inaugural Big Ten season. The program’s rich history and brand name will attract bracket novices, but its defensive shortcomings likely cap its potential. Mara has boosted the Bruins’ interior play, but when they’re matched against teams with a formidable frontcourt, Cronin is bound to be shouting expletives. The mid-seed has second-weekend upside. If it advances beyond that, Bill Walton will ride high on Cloud Nine above.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The Westwood crew packs a considerable punch when possessing the rock. UCLA ranked in the top five in a myriad of offensive categories in Big Ten play and entered the postseason No. 24 in adjusted offensive efficiency in its past seven games at a potent 1.208 points per possession. The Bruins converted a ridiculous 40.4 percent on 3-pointers over the regular season’s last month. Overall, bombers Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr. and Skyy Clark each shot at least 38 percent from deep. The emergence of 7-foot-3 Spaniard Aidy Mara added much needed balance down the stretch. He’s a major reason why UCLA slotted inside the top 75 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage over the last 30 days of the regular season. Outstandingly, they also forced a turnover on nearly 19 percent of opponent possessions over that span.
Weaknesses: Mick Cronin’s club does apply disruptive pressure, but overall, its defense is somewhat substandard. During the regular season’s final month, it ranked only No. 175 in effective field goal percentage D. Again, Mara’s presence helped, but at No. 203 in 2-point percentage defense on the season, opponents often attacked the rim with measurable success. Free-throw shooting is another noticeable concern. During the regular season, John Wooden U converted just 70.5 percent from the charity stripe, ranking No. 241 in the nation. Generating whistles and manufacturing points on freebies aren’t the Bruins’ strongsuits, and that will be problematic in tight affairs.
Outlook: UCLA mostly performed well in its inaugural Big Ten season. The program’s rich history and brand name will attract bracket novices, but its defensive shortcomings likely cap its potential. Mara has boosted the Bruins’ interior play, but when they’re matched against teams with a formidable frontcourt, Cronin is bound to be shouting expletives. The mid-seed has second-weekend upside. If it advances beyond that, Bill Walton will ride high on Cloud Nine above.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The Westwood crew packs a considerable punch when possessing the rock. UCLA ranked in the top five in a myriad of offensive categories in Big Ten play and entered the postseason No. 24 in adjusted offensive efficiency in its past seven games at a potent 1.208 points per possession. The Bruins converted a ridiculous 40.4 percent on 3-pointers over the regular season’s last month. Overall, bombers Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr. and Skyy Clark each shot at least 38 percent from deep. The emergence of 7-foot-3 Spaniard Aidy Mara added much needed balance down the stretch. He’s a major reason why UCLA slotted inside the top 75 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage over the last 30 days of the regular season. Outstandingly, they also forced a turnover on nearly 19 percent of opponent possessions over that span.
Weaknesses: Mick Cronin’s club does apply disruptive pressure, but overall, its defense is somewhat substandard. During the regular season’s final month, it ranked only No. 175 in effective field goal percentage D. Again, Mara’s presence helped, but at No. 203 in 2-point percentage defense on the season, opponents often attacked the rim with measurable success. Free-throw shooting is another noticeable concern. During the regular season, John Wooden U converted just 70.5 percent from the charity stripe, ranking No. 241 in the nation. Generating whistles and manufacturing points on freebies aren’t the Bruins’ strongsuits, and that will be problematic in tight affairs.
Outlook: UCLA mostly performed well in its inaugural Big Ten season. The program’s rich history and brand name will attract bracket novices, but its defensive shortcomings likely cap its potential. Mara has boosted the Bruins’ interior play, but when they’re matched against teams with a formidable frontcourt, Cronin is bound to be shouting expletives. The mid-seed has second-weekend upside. If it advances beyond that, Bill Walton will ride high on Cloud Nine above.
—Brad Evans
What to know: UCLA can pile up points, but its defense causes Mick Cronin to shout four-letter words.
Record: 22-10 (13-7 Big Ten)
Coach: Mick Cronin (15-14 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tyler Bilodeau (Third Team All-Big Ten)
Sweet 16 projected chance
15.9%
Final Four projected chance
2.3%
Strengths: Bill Self built Kansas into one of the best defensive teams this season. Dajuan Harris Jr. is an elite on-ball defender at the point of attack, and KJ Adams Jr. is as versatile as any frontcourt player. The Jayhawks contest 3-pointers, protect the paint and end possessions on the glass. Hunter Dickinson is a skilled big man capable of recording a 30-point, double-double. Combine that with the fact Self is the coach of this team, and there are reasons to be bullish about KU thriving in a single-game setting.
Weaknesses: Kansas, the preseason No. 1 team, has been so disappointing due to the high expectations placed on a flawed roster. For starters, floor spacing is a major issue. In a vacuum, Harris, Adams and Dickinson are all among the top-10 players at their positions. However, Harris and Adams don’t draw defenses beyond the 3-point line, and that creates problems for Dickinson, who needs room to be able to seal and score in the paint. That’s why the Jayhawks are the worst high-major team in the country at getting to the free-throw line. Opponents can just pack the lane and make it a nightmare to get paint or post touches. AJ Storr has been a complete bust in the transfer market, and while Zeke Mayo has been good and Rylan Griffen and David Coit have had their moments, they don’t make up for the flaws within the core of this team. To overcome them, you have to be perfect doing everything else. Kansas has not been perfect.
Outlook: KU won’t make much noise in the NCAA Tournament. That feels like an odd thing to say about a Self squad with a serial winner at the point and one of the nation’s best five-men. But that’s where the Jayhawks stand. The saving grace is that they actually fared well in non-conference play. They beat North Carolina at home and defeated Michigan State and Duke on neutral courts. Their losses came against a full-strength Creighton squad and a very good Missouri team, both in true road settings. There may be something to the argument that Big 12 teams, which know Kansas inside and out, have more success than opponents trying to learn what Self does on a short turnaround. I will not be buying that excuse. Fade the Jayhawks.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Bill Self built Kansas into one of the best defensive teams this season. Dajuan Harris Jr. is an elite on-ball defender at the point of attack, and KJ Adams Jr. is as versatile as any frontcourt player. The Jayhawks contest 3-pointers, protect the paint and end possessions on the glass. Hunter Dickinson is a skilled big man capable of recording a 30-point, double-double. Combine that with the fact Self is the coach of this team, and there are reasons to be bullish about KU thriving in a single-game setting.
Weaknesses: Kansas, the preseason No. 1 team, has been so disappointing due to the high expectations placed on a flawed roster. For starters, floor spacing is a major issue. In a vacuum, Harris, Adams and Dickinson are all among the top-10 players at their positions. However, Harris and Adams don’t draw defenses beyond the 3-point line, and that creates problems for Dickinson, who needs room to be able to seal and score in the paint. That’s why the Jayhawks are the worst high-major team in the country at getting to the free-throw line. Opponents can just pack the lane and make it a nightmare to get paint or post touches. AJ Storr has been a complete bust in the transfer market, and while Zeke Mayo has been good and Rylan Griffen and David Coit have had their moments, they don’t make up for the flaws within the core of this team. To overcome them, you have to be perfect doing everything else. Kansas has not been perfect.
Outlook: KU won’t make much noise in the NCAA Tournament. That feels like an odd thing to say about a Self squad with a serial winner at the point and one of the nation’s best five-men. But that’s where the Jayhawks stand. The saving grace is that they actually fared well in non-conference play. They beat North Carolina at home and defeated Michigan State and Duke on neutral courts. Their losses came against a full-strength Creighton squad and a very good Missouri team, both in true road settings. There may be something to the argument that Big 12 teams, which know Kansas inside and out, have more success than opponents trying to learn what Self does on a short turnaround. I will not be buying that excuse. Fade the Jayhawks.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Bill Self built Kansas into one of the best defensive teams this season. Dajuan Harris Jr. is an elite on-ball defender at the point of attack, and KJ Adams Jr. is as versatile as any frontcourt player. The Jayhawks contest 3-pointers, protect the paint and end possessions on the glass. Hunter Dickinson is a skilled big man capable of recording a 30-point, double-double. Combine that with the fact Self is the coach of this team, and there are reasons to be bullish about KU thriving in a single-game setting.
Weaknesses: Kansas, the preseason No. 1 team, has been so disappointing due to the high expectations placed on a flawed roster. For starters, floor spacing is a major issue. In a vacuum, Harris, Adams and Dickinson are all among the top-10 players at their positions. However, Harris and Adams don’t draw defenses beyond the 3-point line, and that creates problems for Dickinson, who needs room to be able to seal and score in the paint. That’s why the Jayhawks are the worst high-major team in the country at getting to the free-throw line. Opponents can just pack the lane and make it a nightmare to get paint or post touches. AJ Storr has been a complete bust in the transfer market, and while Zeke Mayo has been good and Rylan Griffen and David Coit have had their moments, they don’t make up for the flaws within the core of this team. To overcome them, you have to be perfect doing everything else. Kansas has not been perfect.
Outlook: KU won’t make much noise in the NCAA Tournament. That feels like an odd thing to say about a Self squad with a serial winner at the point and one of the nation’s best five-men. But that’s where the Jayhawks stand. The saving grace is that they actually fared well in non-conference play. They beat North Carolina at home and defeated Michigan State and Duke on neutral courts. Their losses came against a full-strength Creighton squad and a very good Missouri team, both in true road settings. There may be something to the argument that Big 12 teams, which know Kansas inside and out, have more success than opponents trying to learn what Self does on a short turnaround. I will not be buying that excuse. Fade the Jayhawks.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Is Kansas the preseason No. 1 that beat Duke or the 91-57 loser against BYU?
Record: 21-12 (11-9 Big 12)
Coach: Bill Self (57-23 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Hunter Dickinson (First Team All-Big 12)
Sweet 16 projected chance
21.8%
Final Four projected chance
2.7%
Strengths: There isn’t a team in college basketball that has been through more injury adversity. Louisville lost Kasean Pryor (knee) and Koren Johnson (shoulder) for the season. Two transfers got hurt and were forced to redshirt. Aboubacar Traore, Noah Waterman and Chucky Hepburn have all missed games with injuries. Pat Kelsey’s formula has been strength in numbers, and much of this season was spent with seven healthy scholarship players. Once the Cardinals reached the new year with new roles established, they have been dominant. They ran through a watered down ACC, and they have been a top-10 team since Jan. 1, according to BartTorvik. They couldn’t make a shot in non-conference play, but they netted 37 percent on 3-pointers in league play. Hepburn emerged as the best two-way guard in the conference and one of the best in the country. Terrence Edwards Jr. and J’Vonne Hadley are versatile forwards who came into their own, and the shot-making of Reyne Smith changed how they run offense. Louisville can play five-out offense with the best of them.
Weaknesses: Louisville does not have the usual size, length or athleticism of a typical top ACC squad. Its starting backcourt checks in at 6-foot-2. Its wings are all 6-foot-6 or 6-foot-7 and qualify more as fluid athletes than explosive physical freaks. Starting center James Scott is really athletic but stands 6-foot-11 and 220 pounds. Against more athletic opponents, the Cardinals were blown out at home by Tennessee and Ole Miss. They lost to Duke and Kentucky fairly comfortably, too. And since a Dec. 14 loss to their in-state rival, they had one regular-season game against a top-40 opponent (74-64 home win against Clemson on Jan. 7). They mowed down teams in the ACC, but is that really impressive?
Outlook: I am buying Louisville. I have been buying Louisville since the start of the season. Its downturn at the end of November and start of December, when it lost four of five games, can be explained pretty easily: The Cardinals lost their best player, Pryor, in the defeat to Oklahoma. Then they played Ole Miss, Duke and Kentucky with seven healthy bodies and a system that needed to be reworked. Once they figured all that out, they’ve been a wagon. Hepburn’s presence means Kelsey will almost always have the best point guard and the best defender on the floor. The offense will create looks regardless of opponent. As long as Louisville is able to guard and clean the glass, it’ll compete with anyone. It is one of the most under-seeded teams in the bracket, and while I think a trip to the second weekend is the most likely outcome, I would not be shocked to see the Cards in San Antonio in April.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: There isn’t a team in college basketball that has been through more injury adversity. Louisville lost Kasean Pryor (knee) and Koren Johnson (shoulder) for the season. Two transfers got hurt and were forced to redshirt. Aboubacar Traore, Noah Waterman and Chucky Hepburn have all missed games with injuries. Pat Kelsey’s formula has been strength in numbers, and much of this season was spent with seven healthy scholarship players. Once the Cardinals reached the new year with new roles established, they have been dominant. They ran through a watered down ACC, and they have been a top-10 team since Jan. 1, according to BartTorvik. They couldn’t make a shot in non-conference play, but they netted 37 percent on 3-pointers in league play. Hepburn emerged as the best two-way guard in the conference and one of the best in the country. Terrence Edwards Jr. and J’Vonne Hadley are versatile forwards who came into their own, and the shot-making of Reyne Smith changed how they run offense. Louisville can play five-out offense with the best of them.
Weaknesses: Louisville does not have the usual size, length or athleticism of a typical top ACC squad. Its starting backcourt checks in at 6-foot-2. Its wings are all 6-foot-6 or 6-foot-7 and qualify more as fluid athletes than explosive physical freaks. Starting center James Scott is really athletic but stands 6-foot-11 and 220 pounds. Against more athletic opponents, the Cardinals were blown out at home by Tennessee and Ole Miss. They lost to Duke and Kentucky fairly comfortably, too. And since a Dec. 14 loss to their in-state rival, they had one regular-season game against a top-40 opponent (74-64 home win against Clemson on Jan. 7). They mowed down teams in the ACC, but is that really impressive?
Outlook: I am buying Louisville. I have been buying Louisville since the start of the season. Its downturn at the end of November and start of December, when it lost four of five games, can be explained pretty easily: The Cardinals lost their best player, Pryor, in the defeat to Oklahoma. Then they played Ole Miss, Duke and Kentucky with seven healthy bodies and a system that needed to be reworked. Once they figured all that out, they’ve been a wagon. Hepburn’s presence means Kelsey will almost always have the best point guard and the best defender on the floor. The offense will create looks regardless of opponent. As long as Louisville is able to guard and clean the glass, it’ll compete with anyone. It is one of the most under-seeded teams in the bracket, and while I think a trip to the second weekend is the most likely outcome, I would not be shocked to see the Cards in San Antonio in April.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: There isn’t a team in college basketball that has been through more injury adversity. Louisville lost Kasean Pryor (knee) and Koren Johnson (shoulder) for the season. Two transfers got hurt and were forced to redshirt. Aboubacar Traore, Noah Waterman and Chucky Hepburn have all missed games with injuries. Pat Kelsey’s formula has been strength in numbers, and much of this season was spent with seven healthy scholarship players. Once the Cardinals reached the new year with new roles established, they have been dominant. They ran through a watered down ACC, and they have been a top-10 team since Jan. 1, according to BartTorvik. They couldn’t make a shot in non-conference play, but they netted 37 percent on 3-pointers in league play. Hepburn emerged as the best two-way guard in the conference and one of the best in the country. Terrence Edwards Jr. and J’Vonne Hadley are versatile forwards who came into their own, and the shot-making of Reyne Smith changed how they run offense. Louisville can play five-out offense with the best of them.
Weaknesses: Louisville does not have the usual size, length or athleticism of a typical top ACC squad. Its starting backcourt checks in at 6-foot-2. Its wings are all 6-foot-6 or 6-foot-7 and qualify more as fluid athletes than explosive physical freaks. Starting center James Scott is really athletic but stands 6-foot-11 and 220 pounds. Against more athletic opponents, the Cardinals were blown out at home by Tennessee and Ole Miss. They lost to Duke and Kentucky fairly comfortably, too. And since a Dec. 14 loss to their in-state rival, they had one regular-season game against a top-40 opponent (74-64 home win against Clemson on Jan. 7). They mowed down teams in the ACC, but is that really impressive?
Outlook: I am buying Louisville. I have been buying Louisville since the start of the season. Its downturn at the end of November and start of December, when it lost four of five games, can be explained pretty easily: The Cardinals lost their best player, Pryor, in the defeat to Oklahoma. Then they played Ole Miss, Duke and Kentucky with seven healthy bodies and a system that needed to be reworked. Once they figured all that out, they’ve been a wagon. Hepburn’s presence means Kelsey will almost always have the best point guard and the best defender on the floor. The offense will create looks regardless of opponent. As long as Louisville is able to guard and clean the glass, it’ll compete with anyone. It is one of the most under-seeded teams in the bracket, and while I think a trip to the second weekend is the most likely outcome, I would not be shocked to see the Cards in San Antonio in April.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: It took some time, but Pat Kelsey has found the winning formula with this Louisville team.
Record: 27-7 (18-2 ACC)
Coach: Pat Kelsey (0-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Chucky Hepburn (ACC Defensive Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
14.4%
Final Four projected chance
3.7%
Strengths: Chris Jans’ junkyard dogs possess considerable size. They’re 6-foot-4 or taller at shooting guard, on the wing and across the frontline. It’s no shock they’re one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the field, generating a second chance on 34.4 percent of their possessions. Stretch Armstrongs RJ Melendez and KeShawn Murphy also steadily rack shots within 15 feet. Both are major reasons why MSU ranks top-80 nationally in 2-point percentage offense. Generally in control due to the crafty handles of Josh Hubbard, the Bulldogs commit few turnovers. Conversely, they coax numerous mistakes, as evidenced by their No. 81 slotting in defensive turnover rate in the regular season.
Weaknesses: The defensive inadequacies are alarming and apparent. MSU has a tendency to overcommit, leading to frequent open opponent 3-pointers. Over the last month of the regular season, competitors shot a blistering 38.5 percent from distance against them. Only subpar at challenging hoists inside the arc, the Bulldogs ranked an abhorrent No. 344 in effective field goal percentage in their last 10 games. On the opposite end, their perimeter execution was equally ineffective, ranking No. 330 in 3-point percentage offense. Their lack of conversions at the charity stripe are also inexcusable. State entered the postseason No. 255 in free-throw percentage. Spoiled opportunities in close games are likely to lead to its demise.
Outlook: Roll the dice on the representatives from StarkVegas, and your chip stacks could immediately disappear. Yes, Hubbard is a scoring machine who can leave opposing coaches vexed. His dishing and scoring wizardry are well documented. However, the Bulldogs’ gashable defense is an unignorable weakness. Save that Milkbone for a more deserving dog. Mississippi State last reached the Round of 32 in 2008. It’s doubtful the streak of futility ends.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Chris Jans’ junkyard dogs possess considerable size. They’re 6-foot-4 or taller at shooting guard, on the wing and across the frontline. It’s no shock they’re one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the field, generating a second chance on 34.4 percent of their possessions. Stretch Armstrongs RJ Melendez and KeShawn Murphy also steadily rack shots within 15 feet. Both are major reasons why MSU ranks top-80 nationally in 2-point percentage offense. Generally in control due to the crafty handles of Josh Hubbard, the Bulldogs commit few turnovers. Conversely, they coax numerous mistakes, as evidenced by their No. 81 slotting in defensive turnover rate in the regular season.
Weaknesses: The defensive inadequacies are alarming and apparent. MSU has a tendency to overcommit, leading to frequent open opponent 3-pointers. Over the last month of the regular season, competitors shot a blistering 38.5 percent from distance against them. Only subpar at challenging hoists inside the arc, the Bulldogs ranked an abhorrent No. 344 in effective field goal percentage in their last 10 games. On the opposite end, their perimeter execution was equally ineffective, ranking No. 330 in 3-point percentage offense. Their lack of conversions at the charity stripe are also inexcusable. State entered the postseason No. 255 in free-throw percentage. Spoiled opportunities in close games are likely to lead to its demise.
Outlook: Roll the dice on the representatives from StarkVegas, and your chip stacks could immediately disappear. Yes, Hubbard is a scoring machine who can leave opposing coaches vexed. His dishing and scoring wizardry are well documented. However, the Bulldogs’ gashable defense is an unignorable weakness. Save that Milkbone for a more deserving dog. Mississippi State last reached the Round of 32 in 2008. It’s doubtful the streak of futility ends.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Chris Jans’ junkyard dogs possess considerable size. They’re 6-foot-4 or taller at shooting guard, on the wing and across the frontline. It’s no shock they’re one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the field, generating a second chance on 34.4 percent of their possessions. Stretch Armstrongs RJ Melendez and KeShawn Murphy also steadily rack shots within 15 feet. Both are major reasons why MSU ranks top-80 nationally in 2-point percentage offense. Generally in control due to the crafty handles of Josh Hubbard, the Bulldogs commit few turnovers. Conversely, they coax numerous mistakes, as evidenced by their No. 81 slotting in defensive turnover rate in the regular season.
Weaknesses: The defensive inadequacies are alarming and apparent. MSU has a tendency to overcommit, leading to frequent open opponent 3-pointers. Over the last month of the regular season, competitors shot a blistering 38.5 percent from distance against them. Only subpar at challenging hoists inside the arc, the Bulldogs ranked an abhorrent No. 344 in effective field goal percentage in their last 10 games. On the opposite end, their perimeter execution was equally ineffective, ranking No. 330 in 3-point percentage offense. Their lack of conversions at the charity stripe are also inexcusable. State entered the postseason No. 255 in free-throw percentage. Spoiled opportunities in close games are likely to lead to its demise.
Outlook: Roll the dice on the representatives from StarkVegas, and your chip stacks could immediately disappear. Yes, Hubbard is a scoring machine who can leave opposing coaches vexed. His dishing and scoring wizardry are well documented. However, the Bulldogs’ gashable defense is an unignorable weakness. Save that Milkbone for a more deserving dog. Mississippi State last reached the Round of 32 in 2008. It’s doubtful the streak of futility ends.
—Brad Evans
What to know: Hail State has the offense to win a game or two, but defense is a liability.
Record: 21-12 (8-10 SEC)
Coach: Chris Jans (1-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Josh Hubbard (Second Team All-SEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
6.2%
Final Four projected chance
1.2%
Strengths: When Gonzaga gets rolling, it is one of the nation’s elite offenses. What Mark Few wants to do has not changed in many years. The concept is simple but effective: Push in transition and look for one of the bigs to get a seal early. If that doesn’t happen, run a continuity ball-screen offense that allows Ryan Nembhard, one of the nation’s best passers, to show out. With post weapons Graham Ike and Braden Huff surrounded by shooters, the Zags have a good chance to reach the Sweet 16 for the 10th consecutive NCAA Tournament. The last time they failed to make the second weekend, they lost to Syracuse in 2010 when Kelly Olynyk was a Bulldogs freshman. This team has the firepower offensively to make that happen again.
Weaknesses: I am not buying Gonzaga defensively. For starters, I have a hard time trusting teams that want to play a two-big lineup when neither big is a threat to switch out and guard on the perimeter. It’s a roster construction that is becoming a bit more trendy in college basketball, but the versatility is important. With Michael Ajayi moving out of the starting lineup, I don’t know if Gonzaga has it. I also don’t trust its rim protection. The Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in 2-point field goal percentage defense, an issue that is exacerbated by the fact that they don’t have great on-ball defenders along the arc. That’s a recipe for disaster in the Dance.
Outlook: The Zags are one of the toughest teams to figure out in the NCAA Tournament field because they are an outlier. They are a top-10 team, according to the predictive metrics (including KenPom). They rank outside the top 40, according to the resume metrics, and there has never been a squad that has had that much of a difference between the metrics to evaluate how good it is and what it actually accomplished (i.e. who it beat). It goes against every fiber of my being to side against KenPom, but I tend to think the resume metrics are correct. I believe this is the year that Mark Few’s Sweet 16 streak comes to an end. I said the same thing, for the same reason, last year as well.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: When Gonzaga gets rolling, it is one of the nation’s elite offenses. What Mark Few wants to do has not changed in many years. The concept is simple but effective: Push in transition and look for one of the bigs to get a seal early. If that doesn’t happen, run a continuity ball-screen offense that allows Ryan Nembhard, one of the nation’s best passers, to show out. With post weapons Graham Ike and Braden Huff surrounded by shooters, the Zags have a good chance to reach the Sweet 16 for the 10th consecutive NCAA Tournament. The last time they failed to make the second weekend, they lost to Syracuse in 2010 when Kelly Olynyk was a Bulldogs freshman. This team has the firepower offensively to make that happen again.
Weaknesses: I am not buying Gonzaga defensively. For starters, I have a hard time trusting teams that want to play a two-big lineup when neither big is a threat to switch out and guard on the perimeter. It’s a roster construction that is becoming a bit more trendy in college basketball, but the versatility is important. With Michael Ajayi moving out of the starting lineup, I don’t know if Gonzaga has it. I also don’t trust its rim protection. The Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in 2-point field goal percentage defense, an issue that is exacerbated by the fact that they don’t have great on-ball defenders along the arc. That’s a recipe for disaster in the Dance.
Outlook: The Zags are one of the toughest teams to figure out in the NCAA Tournament field because they are an outlier. They are a top-10 team, according to the predictive metrics (including KenPom). They rank outside the top 40, according to the resume metrics, and there has never been a squad that has had that much of a difference between the metrics to evaluate how good it is and what it actually accomplished (i.e. who it beat). It goes against every fiber of my being to side against KenPom, but I tend to think the resume metrics are correct. I believe this is the year that Mark Few’s Sweet 16 streak comes to an end. I said the same thing, for the same reason, last year as well.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: When Gonzaga gets rolling, it is one of the nation’s elite offenses. What Mark Few wants to do has not changed in many years. The concept is simple but effective: Push in transition and look for one of the bigs to get a seal early. If that doesn’t happen, run a continuity ball-screen offense that allows Ryan Nembhard, one of the nation’s best passers, to show out. With post weapons Graham Ike and Braden Huff surrounded by shooters, the Zags have a good chance to reach the Sweet 16 for the 10th consecutive NCAA Tournament. The last time they failed to make the second weekend, they lost to Syracuse in 2010 when Kelly Olynyk was a Bulldogs freshman. This team has the firepower offensively to make that happen again.
Weaknesses: I am not buying Gonzaga defensively. For starters, I have a hard time trusting teams that want to play a two-big lineup when neither big is a threat to switch out and guard on the perimeter. It’s a roster construction that is becoming a bit more trendy in college basketball, but the versatility is important. With Michael Ajayi moving out of the starting lineup, I don’t know if Gonzaga has it. I also don’t trust its rim protection. The Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in 2-point field goal percentage defense, an issue that is exacerbated by the fact that they don’t have great on-ball defenders along the arc. That’s a recipe for disaster in the Dance.
Outlook: The Zags are one of the toughest teams to figure out in the NCAA Tournament field because they are an outlier. They are a top-10 team, according to the predictive metrics (including KenPom). They rank outside the top 40, according to the resume metrics, and there has never been a squad that has had that much of a difference between the metrics to evaluate how good it is and what it actually accomplished (i.e. who it beat). It goes against every fiber of my being to side against KenPom, but I tend to think the resume metrics are correct. I believe this is the year that Mark Few’s Sweet 16 streak comes to an end. I said the same thing, for the same reason, last year as well.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Do you trust Gonzaga’s metrics? Or do you trust its resume and lack of big wins?
Record: 25-8 (14-4 WCC)
Coach: Mark Few (43-24 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ryan Nembhard (First Team All-WCC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
24.0%
Final Four projected chance
8.0%
Strengths: When UConn’s offense is humming, few teams are more dangerous. Sophomore Solo Ball has made the leap as one of college basketball’s most dangerous shooters, while Liam McNeeley has shown the ability to completely dominate a game. The Huskies are top-five nationally in assist rate, and before McNeeley and veteran point guard Hassan Diarra went down with injuries, they were KenPom’s best offensive unit this side of Auburn. And with Alex Karaban’s midseason slump a thing of the past, they’re one of the most difficult teams in the tournament to defend. They are one of the few squads in the field with the ability to beat anyone on a night when they get hot.
Weaknesses: As good as UConn is offensively, that’s how bad it can be defensively. There are two real issues on that end of the floor. For starters, the Huskies cannot stop fouling. They rank in the bottom 10th percentile in defensive fouls per possession — opponents live at the free-throw line — which is a problem exacerbated by the fact that their best offensive weapons struggle to prevent dribble penetration. The odd part is that they are arguably the best rim-protecting team in the country, but too often the combination of over-helping on an opponent’s paint touch and weakside defenders getting lost leads to open shooters. The simplest way to explain it: A team full of players who rate somewhere between average and poor defensively probably isn’t going to be great defensively, regardless of the scheme.
Outlook: UConn has to be great offensively if it is going to have a chance to get to the second weekend, and the Huskies finally look like themselves on that end of the floor after a rough start to the new year. They ranked closer to top 50 than top five in offensive efficiency in 2025, according to BartTorvik, and a big reason was just a simple lack of toughness. They run as intricate of an offense as anyone in college basketball, but teams that can get physical with them defensively, blow up their timing, and force them to run offense from “behind the line of scrimmage,” so to speak. And if they are not firing on all cylinders offensively, they are an average team. UConn is good enough to win a game it is supposed to win, but I do not expect the Huskies to be able to upset one of the top seeds in the tournament. The dream of a three-peat won’t last past the first weekend.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: When UConn’s offense is humming, few teams are more dangerous. Sophomore Solo Ball has made the leap as one of college basketball’s most dangerous shooters, while Liam McNeeley has shown the ability to completely dominate a game. The Huskies are top-five nationally in assist rate, and before McNeeley and veteran point guard Hassan Diarra went down with injuries, they were KenPom’s best offensive unit this side of Auburn. And with Alex Karaban’s midseason slump a thing of the past, they’re one of the most difficult teams in the tournament to defend. They are one of the few squads in the field with the ability to beat anyone on a night when they get hot.
Weaknesses: As good as UConn is offensively, that’s how bad it can be defensively. There are two real issues on that end of the floor. For starters, the Huskies cannot stop fouling. They rank in the bottom 10th percentile in defensive fouls per possession — opponents live at the free-throw line — which is a problem exacerbated by the fact that their best offensive weapons struggle to prevent dribble penetration. The odd part is that they are arguably the best rim-protecting team in the country, but too often the combination of over-helping on an opponent’s paint touch and weakside defenders getting lost leads to open shooters. The simplest way to explain it: A team full of players who rate somewhere between average and poor defensively probably isn’t going to be great defensively, regardless of the scheme.
Outlook: UConn has to be great offensively if it is going to have a chance to get to the second weekend, and the Huskies finally look like themselves on that end of the floor after a rough start to the new year. They ranked closer to top 50 than top five in offensive efficiency in 2025, according to BartTorvik, and a big reason was just a simple lack of toughness. They run as intricate of an offense as anyone in college basketball, but teams that can get physical with them defensively, blow up their timing, and force them to run offense from “behind the line of scrimmage,” so to speak. And if they are not firing on all cylinders offensively, they are an average team. UConn is good enough to win a game it is supposed to win, but I do not expect the Huskies to be able to upset one of the top seeds in the tournament. The dream of a three-peat won’t last past the first weekend.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: When UConn’s offense is humming, few teams are more dangerous. Sophomore Solo Ball has made the leap as one of college basketball’s most dangerous shooters, while Liam McNeeley has shown the ability to completely dominate a game. The Huskies are top-five nationally in assist rate, and before McNeeley and veteran point guard Hassan Diarra went down with injuries, they were KenPom’s best offensive unit this side of Auburn. And with Alex Karaban’s midseason slump a thing of the past, they’re one of the most difficult teams in the tournament to defend. They are one of the few squads in the field with the ability to beat anyone on a night when they get hot.
Weaknesses: As good as UConn is offensively, that’s how bad it can be defensively. There are two real issues on that end of the floor. For starters, the Huskies cannot stop fouling. They rank in the bottom 10th percentile in defensive fouls per possession — opponents live at the free-throw line — which is a problem exacerbated by the fact that their best offensive weapons struggle to prevent dribble penetration. The odd part is that they are arguably the best rim-protecting team in the country, but too often the combination of over-helping on an opponent’s paint touch and weakside defenders getting lost leads to open shooters. The simplest way to explain it: A team full of players who rate somewhere between average and poor defensively probably isn’t going to be great defensively, regardless of the scheme.
Outlook: UConn has to be great offensively if it is going to have a chance to get to the second weekend, and the Huskies finally look like themselves on that end of the floor after a rough start to the new year. They ranked closer to top 50 than top five in offensive efficiency in 2025, according to BartTorvik, and a big reason was just a simple lack of toughness. They run as intricate of an offense as anyone in college basketball, but teams that can get physical with them defensively, blow up their timing, and force them to run offense from “behind the line of scrimmage,” so to speak. And if they are not firing on all cylinders offensively, they are an average team. UConn is good enough to win a game it is supposed to win, but I do not expect the Huskies to be able to upset one of the top seeds in the tournament. The dream of a three-peat won’t last past the first weekend.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Elite offensively, poor defensively, but Dan Hurley’s teams always find a way to peak in March.
Record: 23-10 (14-6 Big East)
Coach: Dan Hurley (14-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Liam McNeeley (Third Team All-Big East)
Sweet 16 projected chance
14.9%
Final Four projected chance
3.3%
Strengths: For number crunchers who excelled in college stat classes, the Bluejays check all the boxes. They ranked a modest No. 50 in BartTorvik over the last month of the regular season, but they were top-40 over the same span in adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency, excelling end line to end line on a per possession basis. Ryan Kalkbrenner is a skilled big who hurls gut punches as a scorer and defender. He’s a stellar disrupter who also shot an absurd 71.7 percent inside the arc. Because of his presence and execution, Creighton’s kick-out game is often deadly. Nearly 38 percent of its points come from 3-point range. The Jays also checked in at No. 6 in assists to field goals made nationally, and it’s no surprise. Greg McDermott is one of the best offensive architects in college basketball.
Weaknesses: Puzzling and perplexing tendencies have occasionally dragged down Omaha’s finest. Though a prolific 3-point shooting team — 49.7 percent of Creighton’s shots come from distance — it isn’t exactly businesslike. Over its final 10 regular season games, it netted a puke-inducing 35.6 percent from the perimeter, ranking No. 225 in the country. Self-inflicted wounds also vexed the Bluejays at times. They coughed up the ball on 18.3 percent of their possessions, slotting No. 260 in the category. They must play heady and clean to advance beyond the first weekend.
Outlook: On paper, Creighton is a fascinating dichotomy. They’re an advanced metrics dream, however their sloppy handles and overreliance on treys trigger full-blown nightmares. Kalkbrenner is McDermott’s heart and soul, but Steven Ashworth’s contributions are vital. When on, the point man is a terrific distributor and shotmaker. Omaha native Warren Buffet wants to party. In order for that to happen, the locals must avoid foul trouble, rain triples and minimize mistakes.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: For number crunchers who excelled in college stat classes, the Bluejays check all the boxes. They ranked a modest No. 50 in BartTorvik over the last month of the regular season, but they were top-40 over the same span in adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency, excelling end line to end line on a per possession basis. Ryan Kalkbrenner is a skilled big who hurls gut punches as a scorer and defender. He’s a stellar disrupter who also shot an absurd 71.7 percent inside the arc. Because of his presence and execution, Creighton’s kick-out game is often deadly. Nearly 38 percent of its points come from 3-point range. The Jays also checked in at No. 6 in assists to field goals made nationally, and it’s no surprise. Greg McDermott is one of the best offensive architects in college basketball.
Weaknesses: Puzzling and perplexing tendencies have occasionally dragged down Omaha’s finest. Though a prolific 3-point shooting team — 49.7 percent of Creighton’s shots come from distance — it isn’t exactly businesslike. Over its final 10 regular season games, it netted a puke-inducing 35.6 percent from the perimeter, ranking No. 225 in the country. Self-inflicted wounds also vexed the Bluejays at times. They coughed up the ball on 18.3 percent of their possessions, slotting No. 260 in the category. They must play heady and clean to advance beyond the first weekend.
Outlook: On paper, Creighton is a fascinating dichotomy. They’re an advanced metrics dream, however their sloppy handles and overreliance on treys trigger full-blown nightmares. Kalkbrenner is McDermott’s heart and soul, but Steven Ashworth’s contributions are vital. When on, the point man is a terrific distributor and shotmaker. Omaha native Warren Buffet wants to party. In order for that to happen, the locals must avoid foul trouble, rain triples and minimize mistakes.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: For number crunchers who excelled in college stat classes, the Bluejays check all the boxes. They ranked a modest No. 50 in BartTorvik over the last month of the regular season, but they were top-40 over the same span in adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency, excelling end line to end line on a per possession basis. Ryan Kalkbrenner is a skilled big who hurls gut punches as a scorer and defender. He’s a stellar disrupter who also shot an absurd 71.7 percent inside the arc. Because of his presence and execution, Creighton’s kick-out game is often deadly. Nearly 38 percent of its points come from 3-point range. The Jays also checked in at No. 6 in assists to field goals made nationally, and it’s no surprise. Greg McDermott is one of the best offensive architects in college basketball.
Weaknesses: Puzzling and perplexing tendencies have occasionally dragged down Omaha’s finest. Though a prolific 3-point shooting team — 49.7 percent of Creighton’s shots come from distance — it isn’t exactly businesslike. Over its final 10 regular season games, it netted a puke-inducing 35.6 percent from the perimeter, ranking No. 225 in the country. Self-inflicted wounds also vexed the Bluejays at times. They coughed up the ball on 18.3 percent of their possessions, slotting No. 260 in the category. They must play heady and clean to advance beyond the first weekend.
Outlook: On paper, Creighton is a fascinating dichotomy. They’re an advanced metrics dream, however their sloppy handles and overreliance on treys trigger full-blown nightmares. Kalkbrenner is McDermott’s heart and soul, but Steven Ashworth’s contributions are vital. When on, the point man is a terrific distributor and shotmaker. Omaha native Warren Buffet wants to party. In order for that to happen, the locals must avoid foul trouble, rain triples and minimize mistakes.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The advanced analytics darling is intriguing, but the inconsistent guard play raises doubts.
Record: 24-10 (15-5 Big East)
Coach: Greg McDermott (11-12 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ryan Kalkbrenner (First Team All-Big East)
Sweet 16 projected chance
66.5%
Final Four projected chance
1.2%
Strengths: Elite one-and-done talent has been a theme for Scott Drew over the past few years, and this season is no exception. Baylor has one of the nation’s best NBA prospects
in projected top-10 pick VJ Edgecombe, a 6-foot-5 freshman who is a walking highlight reel. The Bears are also one of the best offensive rebounding teams, grabbing 36 percent of their misses to rank top-30 nationally. Their team speed stands out when you watch them play. They have athletes all over the floor capable of taking defenders off the dribble when they deploy 6-7 Norchad Omier at the five in small lineups. Another strength is Drew. He’s one of six active coaches with a national title on his resume.
Weaknesses: Baylor lacks size, making it difficult to play consistently good defense. Only one player from its top eight — 6-10 Josh Ojianwuna — is taller than 6-7, and the team’s average height of 77 inches ranks 211th in the country. That puts a lot of pressure on the guards to limit paint touches. The Bears are top-20 in offensive efficiency but just top-60 in defensive efficiency, making for a less-than-ideal blueprint for March Madness success. They also rank below 190th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage defense. To make a run, they’ll have to correct some of their defensive inefficiencies.
Outlook: When playing a team capable of filling it up, Baylor struggles. All but two of
its losses (Tennessee and TCU) have come against teams in the top 25 of KenPom’s
offensive efficiency metric. This team can score, but when that ability is matched, the Bears tend to falter. That could make them an easy out before the second weekend.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Elite one-and-done talent has been a theme for Scott Drew over the past few years, and this season is no exception. Baylor has one of the nation’s best NBA prospects
in projected top-10 pick VJ Edgecombe, a 6-foot-5 freshman who is a walking highlight reel. The Bears are also one of the best offensive rebounding teams, grabbing 36 percent of their misses to rank top-30 nationally. Their team speed stands out when you watch them play. They have athletes all over the floor capable of taking defenders off the dribble when they deploy 6-7 Norchad Omier at the five in small lineups. Another strength is Drew. He’s one of six active coaches with a national title on his resume.
Weaknesses: Baylor lacks size, making it difficult to play consistently good defense. Only one player from its top eight — 6-10 Josh Ojianwuna — is taller than 6-7, and the team’s average height of 77 inches ranks 211th in the country. That puts a lot of pressure on the guards to limit paint touches. The Bears are top-20 in offensive efficiency but just top-60 in defensive efficiency, making for a less-than-ideal blueprint for March Madness success. They also rank below 190th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage defense. To make a run, they’ll have to correct some of their defensive inefficiencies.
Outlook: When playing a team capable of filling it up, Baylor struggles. All but two of
its losses (Tennessee and TCU) have come against teams in the top 25 of KenPom’s
offensive efficiency metric. This team can score, but when that ability is matched, the Bears tend to falter. That could make them an easy out before the second weekend.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Elite one-and-done talent has been a theme for Scott Drew over the past few years, and this season is no exception. Baylor has one of the nation’s best NBA prospects
in projected top-10 pick VJ Edgecombe, a 6-foot-5 freshman who is a walking highlight reel. The Bears are also one of the best offensive rebounding teams, grabbing 36 percent of their misses to rank top-30 nationally. Their team speed stands out when you watch them play. They have athletes all over the floor capable of taking defenders off the dribble when they deploy 6-7 Norchad Omier at the five in small lineups. Another strength is Drew. He’s one of six active coaches with a national title on his resume.
Weaknesses: Baylor lacks size, making it difficult to play consistently good defense. Only one player from its top eight — 6-10 Josh Ojianwuna — is taller than 6-7, and the team’s average height of 77 inches ranks 211th in the country. That puts a lot of pressure on the guards to limit paint touches. The Bears are top-20 in offensive efficiency but just top-60 in defensive efficiency, making for a less-than-ideal blueprint for March Madness success. They also rank below 190th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage defense. To make a run, they’ll have to correct some of their defensive inefficiencies.
Outlook: When playing a team capable of filling it up, Baylor struggles. All but two of
its losses (Tennessee and TCU) have come against teams in the top 25 of KenPom’s
offensive efficiency metric. This team can score, but when that ability is matched, the Bears tend to falter. That could make them an easy out before the second weekend.
—Sam Lance
What to know: Baylor is young and fun, but its inability to string together stops
could be its downfall.
Record: 19-14 (10-10 Big 12)
Coach: Scott Drew (20-11 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: VJ Edgecombe (Big 12 Freshman of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
6.4%
Final Four projected chance
1.3%
Strengths: Georgia is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams, ranking top-20 in offensive rebounding percentage due to its size and physicality. Its average height of 78.9 inches is ninth in the nation, and the Bulldogs are led up front by a future lottery pick in 6-foot-11 freshman phenom Asa Newell. They also feature guards who can score in bunches when hot. The sophomore tandem of Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain caught fire at the end of the regular season, averaging a combined 31.5 points per game in the last eight games. There’s a lot to like defensively, too. Georgia ranked top-25 in 3-point percentage defense at 30.3 percent and top-15 in blocks per game (5.3). The Bulldogs’ athleticism and toughness could make them a tough out, especially if they are hitting shots.
Weaknesses: Taking care of the basketball has plagued Georgia. In the regular season, the Bulldogs ranked 279th out of 364 Division I programs in turnovers per game (12.9), and they finished in the 350s in offensive steal rate, allowing teams to get out and score easy buckets in transition. They don’t really have a true point guard, and it shows. Another concerning sign is college hoops analyst Evan Miyakawa’s numbers, which had Georgia conceding the third-most 10-0 runs in the SEC behind Vanderbilt and LSU. With no reliable distributor and scoring droughts that can last a while, Georgia is vulnerable against teams capable of exploiting these flaws.
Outlook: The Bulldogs could be a dark horse to make the Sweet 16 if they clean up the sloppy play, but those issues aren’t limited to one player and could be hard to fix. However, stars tend to show up in March, and Newell is a bona fide superstar. This may be one of the biggest boom-or-bust teams in the field. Georgia showed flashes in the SEC, but it displayed inconsistency as well. It’s hard to gauge where UGA might end up.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Georgia is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams, ranking top-20 in offensive rebounding percentage due to its size and physicality. Its average height of 78.9 inches is ninth in the nation, and the Bulldogs are led up front by a future lottery pick in 6-foot-11 freshman phenom Asa Newell. They also feature guards who can score in bunches when hot. The sophomore tandem of Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain caught fire at the end of the regular season, averaging a combined 31.5 points per game in the last eight games. There’s a lot to like defensively, too. Georgia ranked top-25 in 3-point percentage defense at 30.3 percent and top-15 in blocks per game (5.3). The Bulldogs’ athleticism and toughness could make them a tough out, especially if they are hitting shots.
Weaknesses: Taking care of the basketball has plagued Georgia. In the regular season, the Bulldogs ranked 279th out of 364 Division I programs in turnovers per game (12.9), and they finished in the 350s in offensive steal rate, allowing teams to get out and score easy buckets in transition. They don’t really have a true point guard, and it shows. Another concerning sign is college hoops analyst Evan Miyakawa’s numbers, which had Georgia conceding the third-most 10-0 runs in the SEC behind Vanderbilt and LSU. With no reliable distributor and scoring droughts that can last a while, Georgia is vulnerable against teams capable of exploiting these flaws.
Outlook: The Bulldogs could be a dark horse to make the Sweet 16 if they clean up the sloppy play, but those issues aren’t limited to one player and could be hard to fix. However, stars tend to show up in March, and Newell is a bona fide superstar. This may be one of the biggest boom-or-bust teams in the field. Georgia showed flashes in the SEC, but it displayed inconsistency as well. It’s hard to gauge where UGA might end up.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Georgia is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams, ranking top-20 in offensive rebounding percentage due to its size and physicality. Its average height of 78.9 inches is ninth in the nation, and the Bulldogs are led up front by a future lottery pick in 6-foot-11 freshman phenom Asa Newell. They also feature guards who can score in bunches when hot. The sophomore tandem of Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain caught fire at the end of the regular season, averaging a combined 31.5 points per game in the last eight games. There’s a lot to like defensively, too. Georgia ranked top-25 in 3-point percentage defense at 30.3 percent and top-15 in blocks per game (5.3). The Bulldogs’ athleticism and toughness could make them a tough out, especially if they are hitting shots.
Weaknesses: Taking care of the basketball has plagued Georgia. In the regular season, the Bulldogs ranked 279th out of 364 Division I programs in turnovers per game (12.9), and they finished in the 350s in offensive steal rate, allowing teams to get out and score easy buckets in transition. They don’t really have a true point guard, and it shows. Another concerning sign is college hoops analyst Evan Miyakawa’s numbers, which had Georgia conceding the third-most 10-0 runs in the SEC behind Vanderbilt and LSU. With no reliable distributor and scoring droughts that can last a while, Georgia is vulnerable against teams capable of exploiting these flaws.
Outlook: The Bulldogs could be a dark horse to make the Sweet 16 if they clean up the sloppy play, but those issues aren’t limited to one player and could be hard to fix. However, stars tend to show up in March, and Newell is a bona fide superstar. This may be one of the biggest boom-or-bust teams in the field. Georgia showed flashes in the SEC, but it displayed inconsistency as well. It’s hard to gauge where UGA might end up.
—Sam Lance
What to know: Georgia blends freshmen starpower with great rebounding, but turnover issues could hold it back.
Record: 20-12 (8-10 SEC)
Coach: Mike White (6-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Asa Newell (SEC All-Freshman Team)
Sweet 16 projected chance
4.6%
Final Four projected chance
0.7%
Strengths: Jeremiah Fears is one of college basketball’s most electric players as a freshman and is a projected NBA lottery pick. When the 6-foot-4 guard is on, Oklahoma is tough to beat. The Sooners are 8-2 when Fears scores 20 or more points with wins against Arizona, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Missouri and Georgia. He’s a major reason why the Sooners are top-25 in offensive efficiency. Senior forward Jalon Moore, the team’s second-leading scorer (16.0 points per game) behind Fears (17.0), gives OU a great one-two scoring combo that can fill it up with any duo in the country.
Weaknesses: The Sooners are undersized, and it shows in the rebounding numbers. They rank in the 280s in rebounding margin and grab only 26.9 percent of their misses, the second-lowest mark in the SEC. Factor that in with a bit of a turnover bug, and this team does not have much margin for error. Oklahoma ranks lower than 150 in turnover percentage offense and doesn’t force opponents to cough up the ball much. Fears is the heart and soul of this squad, but riding a freshman in the NCAA Tournament can be challenging, especially when he’s averaging 3.5 turnovers per game.
Outlook: Having potentially the best player on the court at any given moment from the guard spot could give OU some juice. But with the way the Sooners have struggled to piece together wins in the SEC, they could be an early flameout. Well, unless Fears goes nuclear.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Jeremiah Fears is one of college basketball’s most electric players as a freshman and is a projected NBA lottery pick. When the 6-foot-4 guard is on, Oklahoma is tough to beat. The Sooners are 8-2 when Fears scores 20 or more points with wins against Arizona, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Missouri and Georgia. He’s a major reason why the Sooners are top-25 in offensive efficiency. Senior forward Jalon Moore, the team’s second-leading scorer (16.0 points per game) behind Fears (17.0), gives OU a great one-two scoring combo that can fill it up with any duo in the country.
Weaknesses: The Sooners are undersized, and it shows in the rebounding numbers. They rank in the 280s in rebounding margin and grab only 26.9 percent of their misses, the second-lowest mark in the SEC. Factor that in with a bit of a turnover bug, and this team does not have much margin for error. Oklahoma ranks lower than 150 in turnover percentage offense and doesn’t force opponents to cough up the ball much. Fears is the heart and soul of this squad, but riding a freshman in the NCAA Tournament can be challenging, especially when he’s averaging 3.5 turnovers per game.
Outlook: Having potentially the best player on the court at any given moment from the guard spot could give OU some juice. But with the way the Sooners have struggled to piece together wins in the SEC, they could be an early flameout. Well, unless Fears goes nuclear.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Jeremiah Fears is one of college basketball’s most electric players as a freshman and is a projected NBA lottery pick. When the 6-foot-4 guard is on, Oklahoma is tough to beat. The Sooners are 8-2 when Fears scores 20 or more points with wins against Arizona, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Missouri and Georgia. He’s a major reason why the Sooners are top-25 in offensive efficiency. Senior forward Jalon Moore, the team’s second-leading scorer (16.0 points per game) behind Fears (17.0), gives OU a great one-two scoring combo that can fill it up with any duo in the country.
Weaknesses: The Sooners are undersized, and it shows in the rebounding numbers. They rank in the 280s in rebounding margin and grab only 26.9 percent of their misses, the second-lowest mark in the SEC. Factor that in with a bit of a turnover bug, and this team does not have much margin for error. Oklahoma ranks lower than 150 in turnover percentage offense and doesn’t force opponents to cough up the ball much. Fears is the heart and soul of this squad, but riding a freshman in the NCAA Tournament can be challenging, especially when he’s averaging 3.5 turnovers per game.
Outlook: Having potentially the best player on the court at any given moment from the guard spot could give OU some juice. But with the way the Sooners have struggled to piece together wins in the SEC, they could be an early flameout. Well, unless Fears goes nuclear.
—Sam Lance
What to know: Oklahoma rides an electric Jeremiah Fears, but SEC struggles and rebounding woes could cap its ceiling.
Record: 20-13 (6-12 SEC)
Coach: Porter Moser (6-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Jeremiah Fears (SEC All-Freshman Team)
Sweet 16 projected chance
3.2%
Final Four projected chance
0.3%
Strengths: Younger Pitino has followed in his legendary father’s footsteps, instituting sound defensive principles that have guided his team to the Dance. The Mountain West regular season champions create chaos. They’re top five in adjusted tempo nationally, and their frenetic pace and relentless on-ball pressure twist teams into a pretzel. Pre-tourney, they forced a turnover on 20.4 percent of opponent possessions. Strong around the rim — grabbing rebounds, scoring and altering shots — New Mexico packs the paint with considerable zeal. With an intimidating frontline of Nelly Junior Joseph, Mustapha Amzil and Filip Borovicanin, the Lobos won’t be pushed around inside.
Weaknesses: Offensively, the Albuquerque reps didn’t play at peak elevation in the regular season. In the 30 days leading up to the postseason, they ranked outside the top 140 in adjusted offensive efficiency, netting a mediocre 1.095 points per possession. Though the Lobos stroke it fairly well from outside, only 25.8 percent of their points came via the 3-pointer. They also converted under 70 percent on free throws. Lacking a deep bench, it’ll be important to stay out of foul trouble. Despite its lopsided overall record, New Mexico has visible flaws.
Outlook: Channeling the free spirit of Bill Walton (RIP!), New Mexico, at times, flows beautifully like the mighty waters of the Rio Grande. Their frontcourt can bang with anyone, and when the triples fall from Dent, Tru Washington and CJ Noland, they are a very tough customer — don’t forget they defeated UCLA and VCU in non-conference play. Draw is everything, but the under-the-radar Lobos have the potential to lash out.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Younger Pitino has followed in his legendary father’s footsteps, instituting sound defensive principles that have guided his team to the Dance. The Mountain West regular season champions create chaos. They’re top five in adjusted tempo nationally, and their frenetic pace and relentless on-ball pressure twist teams into a pretzel. Pre-tourney, they forced a turnover on 20.4 percent of opponent possessions. Strong around the rim — grabbing rebounds, scoring and altering shots — New Mexico packs the paint with considerable zeal. With an intimidating frontline of Nelly Junior Joseph, Mustapha Amzil and Filip Borovicanin, the Lobos won’t be pushed around inside.
Weaknesses: Offensively, the Albuquerque reps didn’t play at peak elevation in the regular season. In the 30 days leading up to the postseason, they ranked outside the top 140 in adjusted offensive efficiency, netting a mediocre 1.095 points per possession. Though the Lobos stroke it fairly well from outside, only 25.8 percent of their points came via the 3-pointer. They also converted under 70 percent on free throws. Lacking a deep bench, it’ll be important to stay out of foul trouble. Despite its lopsided overall record, New Mexico has visible flaws.
Outlook: Channeling the free spirit of Bill Walton (RIP!), New Mexico, at times, flows beautifully like the mighty waters of the Rio Grande. Their frontcourt can bang with anyone, and when the triples fall from Dent, Tru Washington and CJ Noland, they are a very tough customer — don’t forget they defeated UCLA and VCU in non-conference play. Draw is everything, but the under-the-radar Lobos have the potential to lash out.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Younger Pitino has followed in his legendary father’s footsteps, instituting sound defensive principles that have guided his team to the Dance. The Mountain West regular season champions create chaos. They’re top five in adjusted tempo nationally, and their frenetic pace and relentless on-ball pressure twist teams into a pretzel. Pre-tourney, they forced a turnover on 20.4 percent of opponent possessions. Strong around the rim — grabbing rebounds, scoring and altering shots — New Mexico packs the paint with considerable zeal. With an intimidating frontline of Nelly Junior Joseph, Mustapha Amzil and Filip Borovicanin, the Lobos won’t be pushed around inside.
Weaknesses: Offensively, the Albuquerque reps didn’t play at peak elevation in the regular season. In the 30 days leading up to the postseason, they ranked outside the top 140 in adjusted offensive efficiency, netting a mediocre 1.095 points per possession. Though the Lobos stroke it fairly well from outside, only 25.8 percent of their points came via the 3-pointer. They also converted under 70 percent on free throws. Lacking a deep bench, it’ll be important to stay out of foul trouble. Despite its lopsided overall record, New Mexico has visible flaws.
Outlook: Channeling the free spirit of Bill Walton (RIP!), New Mexico, at times, flows beautifully like the mighty waters of the Rio Grande. Their frontcourt can bang with anyone, and when the triples fall from Dent, Tru Washington and CJ Noland, they are a very tough customer — don’t forget they defeated UCLA and VCU in non-conference play. Draw is everything, but the under-the-radar Lobos have the potential to lash out.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The Lobos have howled at the moon on the strength of their stiff and staunch defense.
Record: 26-7 (17-3 MWC)
Coach: Richard Pitino (1-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Donovan Dent (Mountain West Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
11.4%
Final Four projected chance
1.3%
Strengths: Vanderbilt has some very real offensive firepower. A top-25 offense, according to KenPom, the Commodores are capable of exploding thanks to the presence of All-SEC guard Jason Edwards. The 6-foot-1 Edwards is a streaky shooter with deep range who pairs perfectly with AJ Hoggard, a more physical point guard who has plenty of experience from his four Big Ten seasons with Michigan State. Tyler Nickel has made numerous clutch 3-pointers, and the combination of that trio of perimeter weapons with a pair of burly, undersized bigs has made Vandy really dangerous. The Commodores pound the offensive glass, force turnovers and, on nights when their 3s are going down, are really difficult to beat. Ask Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri.
Weaknesses: Vanderbilt’s strength on the defensive end is its ability to force turnovers. But in order to force turnovers, the Commodores take risks, which can create problems. For starters, they foul quite a bit, with a defensive free throw rate in the bottom 25th percentile nationally. They also allow too many shots around the rim, although Devin McGlockton and Jaylen Carey have been above average as rim protectors. But more than anything, Vandy gives up far too many open 3s. Opponents shoot 37 percent from beyond the arc. Only Cal (37.6) and Miami (39.7), which had its coach quit in December and may be the worst Power 5 team in the country, are the only high-major programs to allow a higher 3-point shooting percentage.
Outlook: The Commodores are capable of taking down the big dogs in college basketball. They have multiple wins over top-10 opponents because of their boom-or-bust nature as a team. When Edwards gets hot and they force turnovers and play in transition, they have proven they can beat anyone.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Vanderbilt has some very real offensive firepower. A top-25 offense, according to KenPom, the Commodores are capable of exploding thanks to the presence of All-SEC guard Jason Edwards. The 6-foot-1 Edwards is a streaky shooter with deep range who pairs perfectly with AJ Hoggard, a more physical point guard who has plenty of experience from his four Big Ten seasons with Michigan State. Tyler Nickel has made numerous clutch 3-pointers, and the combination of that trio of perimeter weapons with a pair of burly, undersized bigs has made Vandy really dangerous. The Commodores pound the offensive glass, force turnovers and, on nights when their 3s are going down, are really difficult to beat. Ask Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri.
Weaknesses: Vanderbilt’s strength on the defensive end is its ability to force turnovers. But in order to force turnovers, the Commodores take risks, which can create problems. For starters, they foul quite a bit, with a defensive free throw rate in the bottom 25th percentile nationally. They also allow too many shots around the rim, although Devin McGlockton and Jaylen Carey have been above average as rim protectors. But more than anything, Vandy gives up far too many open 3s. Opponents shoot 37 percent from beyond the arc. Only Cal (37.6) and Miami (39.7), which had its coach quit in December and may be the worst Power 5 team in the country, are the only high-major programs to allow a higher 3-point shooting percentage.
Outlook: The Commodores are capable of taking down the big dogs in college basketball. They have multiple wins over top-10 opponents because of their boom-or-bust nature as a team. When Edwards gets hot and they force turnovers and play in transition, they have proven they can beat anyone.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Vanderbilt has some very real offensive firepower. A top-25 offense, according to KenPom, the Commodores are capable of exploding thanks to the presence of All-SEC guard Jason Edwards. The 6-foot-1 Edwards is a streaky shooter with deep range who pairs perfectly with AJ Hoggard, a more physical point guard who has plenty of experience from his four Big Ten seasons with Michigan State. Tyler Nickel has made numerous clutch 3-pointers, and the combination of that trio of perimeter weapons with a pair of burly, undersized bigs has made Vandy really dangerous. The Commodores pound the offensive glass, force turnovers and, on nights when their 3s are going down, are really difficult to beat. Ask Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri.
Weaknesses: Vanderbilt’s strength on the defensive end is its ability to force turnovers. But in order to force turnovers, the Commodores take risks, which can create problems. For starters, they foul quite a bit, with a defensive free throw rate in the bottom 25th percentile nationally. They also allow too many shots around the rim, although Devin McGlockton and Jaylen Carey have been above average as rim protectors. But more than anything, Vandy gives up far too many open 3s. Opponents shoot 37 percent from beyond the arc. Only Cal (37.6) and Miami (39.7), which had its coach quit in December and may be the worst Power 5 team in the country, are the only high-major programs to allow a higher 3-point shooting percentage.
Outlook: The Commodores are capable of taking down the big dogs in college basketball. They have multiple wins over top-10 opponents because of their boom-or-bust nature as a team. When Edwards gets hot and they force turnovers and play in transition, they have proven they can beat anyone.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: Vanderbilt, picked in the preseason to finish 16th in the SEC, went dancing. Incredible coaching job.
Record: 20-12 (8-10 SEC)
Coach: Mark Byington (1-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Jason Edwards (Third Team All-SEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
5.4%
Final Four projected chance
0.4%
Strengths: Jerrod Calhoun developed a reputation at Youngstown State for being an innovative offensive mind, and while that has certainly traveled with him to Logan, a coach doesn’t have to be all that creative with talents like Mason Falslev and Ian Martinez on the roster. Falslev is a first-team, all-league talent who may be the most well-rounded player in the Mountain West, while Martinez is an explosive scorer who is capable of going for 20-plus any given night. While those two make the Aggies offense hum, what makes them a top-20 offense in America is the balance and role allocation. Drake Allen is perfectly happy being a table-setter. Aubin Gateretse, a 6-foot-11 senior, knows his job is to be big and take up space in the lane. Isaac Johnson excels as the floor-spacing five, while Dexter Akanno and Tucker Anderson aren’t shy to let the 3-pointers fly either.
Weaknesses: Utah State’s weakness is on the defensive end of the floor. The Aggies rank outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and are seventh in the category in the 11-team Mountain West. They struggle to defend the paint, rank in the bottom half nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and tend to be a little foul-happy. Part of the reason is they play 70 percent of their defensive possessions in zone, which can be a curse against teams that can make 3s, pass well and get to the offensive glass.
Outlook: The zone can also take opponents out of a rhythm and make them uncomfortable. Utah State’s zone — a hybrid somewhere between a 2-3 and a 1-1-3 — does exactly that because it’s unique. That zone and Falslev’s super-human anticipation are why the Aggies force turnovers on more than 20 percent of their defensive possessions, and those turnovers are why they are one of the best teams in transition. There certainly are ways the Aggies can be exploited, but this is not a team to take lightly.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Jerrod Calhoun developed a reputation at Youngstown State for being an innovative offensive mind, and while that has certainly traveled with him to Logan, a coach doesn’t have to be all that creative with talents like Mason Falslev and Ian Martinez on the roster. Falslev is a first-team, all-league talent who may be the most well-rounded player in the Mountain West, while Martinez is an explosive scorer who is capable of going for 20-plus any given night. While those two make the Aggies offense hum, what makes them a top-20 offense in America is the balance and role allocation. Drake Allen is perfectly happy being a table-setter. Aubin Gateretse, a 6-foot-11 senior, knows his job is to be big and take up space in the lane. Isaac Johnson excels as the floor-spacing five, while Dexter Akanno and Tucker Anderson aren’t shy to let the 3-pointers fly either.
Weaknesses: Utah State’s weakness is on the defensive end of the floor. The Aggies rank outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and are seventh in the category in the 11-team Mountain West. They struggle to defend the paint, rank in the bottom half nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and tend to be a little foul-happy. Part of the reason is they play 70 percent of their defensive possessions in zone, which can be a curse against teams that can make 3s, pass well and get to the offensive glass.
Outlook: The zone can also take opponents out of a rhythm and make them uncomfortable. Utah State’s zone — a hybrid somewhere between a 2-3 and a 1-1-3 — does exactly that because it’s unique. That zone and Falslev’s super-human anticipation are why the Aggies force turnovers on more than 20 percent of their defensive possessions, and those turnovers are why they are one of the best teams in transition. There certainly are ways the Aggies can be exploited, but this is not a team to take lightly.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Jerrod Calhoun developed a reputation at Youngstown State for being an innovative offensive mind, and while that has certainly traveled with him to Logan, a coach doesn’t have to be all that creative with talents like Mason Falslev and Ian Martinez on the roster. Falslev is a first-team, all-league talent who may be the most well-rounded player in the Mountain West, while Martinez is an explosive scorer who is capable of going for 20-plus any given night. While those two make the Aggies offense hum, what makes them a top-20 offense in America is the balance and role allocation. Drake Allen is perfectly happy being a table-setter. Aubin Gateretse, a 6-foot-11 senior, knows his job is to be big and take up space in the lane. Isaac Johnson excels as the floor-spacing five, while Dexter Akanno and Tucker Anderson aren’t shy to let the 3-pointers fly either.
Weaknesses: Utah State’s weakness is on the defensive end of the floor. The Aggies rank outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and are seventh in the category in the 11-team Mountain West. They struggle to defend the paint, rank in the bottom half nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and tend to be a little foul-happy. Part of the reason is they play 70 percent of their defensive possessions in zone, which can be a curse against teams that can make 3s, pass well and get to the offensive glass.
Outlook: The zone can also take opponents out of a rhythm and make them uncomfortable. Utah State’s zone — a hybrid somewhere between a 2-3 and a 1-1-3 — does exactly that because it’s unique. That zone and Falslev’s super-human anticipation are why the Aggies force turnovers on more than 20 percent of their defensive possessions, and those turnovers are why they are one of the best teams in transition. There certainly are ways the Aggies can be exploited, but this is not a team to take lightly.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: The coach may have changed, but Utah State winning stays the same under Jerrod Calhoun.
Record: 26-7 (15-5 MWC)
Coach: Jerrod Calhoun (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Mason Falslev (First Team All-Mountain West)
Sweet 16 projected chance
6.3%
Final Four projected chance
0.5%
Strengths: Arkansas is one of the most athletic teams and possesses a ton of length. Its average height of 78.6 inches ranks 19th in the country, and its top eight comprises players 6-foot-4 or taller, including Zvonimir Ivisic, a 7-foot-2 Croatian forward who cleans things up on the back end. The length advantage led the Razorbacks to a top-20 ranking in block percentage on both offense and defense. It also helped them become a top-20 defense. Simply put, they are carried by that end of the floor. In its regular-season wins, Arkansas allowed 67.7 points per game compared to 76.9 in losses. To make a run, the Hogs will need to defend.
Weaknesses: Since Boogie Fland (thumb) was ruled out for the season in mid-January, Arkansas has been better on the offensive end. The problem is that the improvement has been minimal. The Razorbacks still rank outside the top 80 in offensive efficiency on BartTorvik, and even with one less creator to simplify things and D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis running the show, they can be a rough watch on the offensive end. They managed only 53 points in a 19-point loss to South Carolina, which won just two games in SEC play. If Arkansas loses in the first weekend, it’ll likely be because of its offensive shortcomings.
Outlook: The Razorbacks feel like a classic John Calipari team, one that oozes talent but gets bogged down by offensive inconsistencies. They can use their length and athleticism to suffocate opponents, but it doesn’t matter if they can’t score. The bottom line: If Arkansas can figure out its offense, it has Sweet 16 potential. However, I’m not expecting the Hogs to defy the odds.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Arkansas is one of the most athletic teams and possesses a ton of length. Its average height of 78.6 inches ranks 19th in the country, and its top eight comprises players 6-foot-4 or taller, including Zvonimir Ivisic, a 7-foot-2 Croatian forward who cleans things up on the back end. The length advantage led the Razorbacks to a top-20 ranking in block percentage on both offense and defense. It also helped them become a top-20 defense. Simply put, they are carried by that end of the floor. In its regular-season wins, Arkansas allowed 67.7 points per game compared to 76.9 in losses. To make a run, the Hogs will need to defend.
Weaknesses: Since Boogie Fland (thumb) was ruled out for the season in mid-January, Arkansas has been better on the offensive end. The problem is that the improvement has been minimal. The Razorbacks still rank outside the top 80 in offensive efficiency on BartTorvik, and even with one less creator to simplify things and D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis running the show, they can be a rough watch on the offensive end. They managed only 53 points in a 19-point loss to South Carolina, which won just two games in SEC play. If Arkansas loses in the first weekend, it’ll likely be because of its offensive shortcomings.
Outlook: The Razorbacks feel like a classic John Calipari team, one that oozes talent but gets bogged down by offensive inconsistencies. They can use their length and athleticism to suffocate opponents, but it doesn’t matter if they can’t score. The bottom line: If Arkansas can figure out its offense, it has Sweet 16 potential. However, I’m not expecting the Hogs to defy the odds.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Arkansas is one of the most athletic teams and possesses a ton of length. Its average height of 78.6 inches ranks 19th in the country, and its top eight comprises players 6-foot-4 or taller, including Zvonimir Ivisic, a 7-foot-2 Croatian forward who cleans things up on the back end. The length advantage led the Razorbacks to a top-20 ranking in block percentage on both offense and defense. It also helped them become a top-20 defense. Simply put, they are carried by that end of the floor. In its regular-season wins, Arkansas allowed 67.7 points per game compared to 76.9 in losses. To make a run, the Hogs will need to defend.
Weaknesses: Since Boogie Fland (thumb) was ruled out for the season in mid-January, Arkansas has been better on the offensive end. The problem is that the improvement has been minimal. The Razorbacks still rank outside the top 80 in offensive efficiency on BartTorvik, and even with one less creator to simplify things and D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis running the show, they can be a rough watch on the offensive end. They managed only 53 points in a 19-point loss to South Carolina, which won just two games in SEC play. If Arkansas loses in the first weekend, it’ll likely be because of its offensive shortcomings.
Outlook: The Razorbacks feel like a classic John Calipari team, one that oozes talent but gets bogged down by offensive inconsistencies. They can use their length and athleticism to suffocate opponents, but it doesn’t matter if they can’t score. The bottom line: If Arkansas can figure out its offense, it has Sweet 16 potential. However, I’m not expecting the Hogs to defy the odds.
—Sam Lance
What to know: John Calipari has another team of highly-touted prospects, but offensive woes could hold Arkansas back.
Record: 20-13 (8-10 SEC)
Coach: John Calipari (57-22 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Zvonimir Ivisic (2 blocks per game)
Sweet 16 projected chance
9.9%
Final Four projected chance
0.8%
Strengths: This team can guard with the best of them, sitting at No. 12 in KenPom’s defensive rating. It is top-10 in both effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage defense to go with the nation’s fourth-ranked block percentage (9.8 percent). The guard play is top-notch and certainly helps in March. San Diego State’s leading scorers — Nick Boyd, Miles Byrd and BJ Davis — can be a lot to deal with. The trio combined for 41 points in a 71-53 victory over Creighton last November in Las Vegas. Byrd is the X-factor. The Aztecs are 7-2 when he scores 15 or more points, and four of those wins came against likely NCAA Tournament teams. Byrd averaged 11.1 points in losses, below his season average of nearly 13 points per game. Depth is another strength. SDSU goes nine or more deep without much drop-off.
Weaknesses: San Diego State doesn’t really have a go-to guy. Five different players have led in scoring with Boyd being the most frequent top scorer. It’s not ideal to be without a closer in March. Also, the offensive efficiency is outside the top 100 for a number of reasons. It’s also alarming that a team led by guards ranks in the 300s in free-throw percentage at 67 percent. If it needs to put away a game late, SDSU could have some trouble.
Outlook: After beating Creighton and Houston at the Players Era Festival in Vegas, San Diego State played six regular-season games against KenPom top-50 teams. The Aztecs went 4-2, averaging 55.5 points in the losses compared to 72 points in the wins. When the offense stalls, this team is very beatable. They will need to score to get out of the first round and beyond.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: This team can guard with the best of them, sitting at No. 12 in KenPom’s defensive rating. It is top-10 in both effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage defense to go with the nation’s fourth-ranked block percentage (9.8 percent). The guard play is top-notch and certainly helps in March. San Diego State’s leading scorers — Nick Boyd, Miles Byrd and BJ Davis — can be a lot to deal with. The trio combined for 41 points in a 71-53 victory over Creighton last November in Las Vegas. Byrd is the X-factor. The Aztecs are 7-2 when he scores 15 or more points, and four of those wins came against likely NCAA Tournament teams. Byrd averaged 11.1 points in losses, below his season average of nearly 13 points per game. Depth is another strength. SDSU goes nine or more deep without much drop-off.
Weaknesses: San Diego State doesn’t really have a go-to guy. Five different players have led in scoring with Boyd being the most frequent top scorer. It’s not ideal to be without a closer in March. Also, the offensive efficiency is outside the top 100 for a number of reasons. It’s also alarming that a team led by guards ranks in the 300s in free-throw percentage at 67 percent. If it needs to put away a game late, SDSU could have some trouble.
Outlook: After beating Creighton and Houston at the Players Era Festival in Vegas, San Diego State played six regular-season games against KenPom top-50 teams. The Aztecs went 4-2, averaging 55.5 points in the losses compared to 72 points in the wins. When the offense stalls, this team is very beatable. They will need to score to get out of the first round and beyond.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: This team can guard with the best of them, sitting at No. 12 in KenPom’s defensive rating. It is top-10 in both effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage defense to go with the nation’s fourth-ranked block percentage (9.8 percent). The guard play is top-notch and certainly helps in March. San Diego State’s leading scorers — Nick Boyd, Miles Byrd and BJ Davis — can be a lot to deal with. The trio combined for 41 points in a 71-53 victory over Creighton last November in Las Vegas. Byrd is the X-factor. The Aztecs are 7-2 when he scores 15 or more points, and four of those wins came against likely NCAA Tournament teams. Byrd averaged 11.1 points in losses, below his season average of nearly 13 points per game. Depth is another strength. SDSU goes nine or more deep without much drop-off.
Weaknesses: San Diego State doesn’t really have a go-to guy. Five different players have led in scoring with Boyd being the most frequent top scorer. It’s not ideal to be without a closer in March. Also, the offensive efficiency is outside the top 100 for a number of reasons. It’s also alarming that a team led by guards ranks in the 300s in free-throw percentage at 67 percent. If it needs to put away a game late, SDSU could have some trouble.
Outlook: After beating Creighton and Houston at the Players Era Festival in Vegas, San Diego State played six regular-season games against KenPom top-50 teams. The Aztecs went 4-2, averaging 55.5 points in the losses compared to 72 points in the wins. When the offense stalls, this team is very beatable. They will need to score to get out of the first round and beyond.
—Sam Lance
What to know: SDSU’s defense and depth dazzle, but shaky offense could hinder it from being a force.
Record: 21-9 (14-6 Mountain West)
Coach: Brian Dutcher (7-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Miles Byrd (Second Team All-Mountain West)
Sweet 16 projected chance
4.4%
Final Four projected chance
0.4%
Strengths: Shifting into high gear and sprinting up the floor is North Carolina’s game. It’s a fast-paced and well-oiled offensive machine equipped with multiple engine-revving scorers. In their last nine regular-season games (7-2), the Tar Heels ranked No. 11 in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 55.3 percent on 2-pointers and an outlandish 42.6 percent on 3s. On the season, RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell and Jae’Lyn Withers all netted at least 35 percent from distance. Also tenacious on the glass, UNC ranked inside the top 100 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage since February 1.
Weaknesses: Carolina’s defense couldn’t stop a toddler from scoring on a Little Tikes hoop. Its questionable rotations, wide driving lanes and general passive manner are why the Heels ranked a miserable No. 282 in effective field goal percentage defense over the regular season’s final month. Most horrendously, they allowed 39.3 percent on 3s during that span to rank a hideous No. 338 nationally. With no player over 6-foot-9 logging 40 percent of the team’s minutes, Michael Jordan U’s thin frontcourt can also be brutalized at times.
Outlook: North Carolina is more deserving of the NIT. Sure, it’s a brand name that has cranked out numerous legends over the years, but this mediocre bunch lacks the defense and height to compete beyond Round 1. There are better double-digit sleepers to advance bracket lines. As good as the Tar Heels are offensively, they simply have too many flaws in critical categories.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Shifting into high gear and sprinting up the floor is North Carolina’s game. It’s a fast-paced and well-oiled offensive machine equipped with multiple engine-revving scorers. In their last nine regular-season games (7-2), the Tar Heels ranked No. 11 in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 55.3 percent on 2-pointers and an outlandish 42.6 percent on 3s. On the season, RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell and Jae’Lyn Withers all netted at least 35 percent from distance. Also tenacious on the glass, UNC ranked inside the top 100 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage since February 1.
Weaknesses: Carolina’s defense couldn’t stop a toddler from scoring on a Little Tikes hoop. Its questionable rotations, wide driving lanes and general passive manner are why the Heels ranked a miserable No. 282 in effective field goal percentage defense over the regular season’s final month. Most horrendously, they allowed 39.3 percent on 3s during that span to rank a hideous No. 338 nationally. With no player over 6-foot-9 logging 40 percent of the team’s minutes, Michael Jordan U’s thin frontcourt can also be brutalized at times.
Outlook: North Carolina is more deserving of the NIT. Sure, it’s a brand name that has cranked out numerous legends over the years, but this mediocre bunch lacks the defense and height to compete beyond Round 1. There are better double-digit sleepers to advance bracket lines. As good as the Tar Heels are offensively, they simply have too many flaws in critical categories.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Shifting into high gear and sprinting up the floor is North Carolina’s game. It’s a fast-paced and well-oiled offensive machine equipped with multiple engine-revving scorers. In their last nine regular-season games (7-2), the Tar Heels ranked No. 11 in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 55.3 percent on 2-pointers and an outlandish 42.6 percent on 3s. On the season, RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell and Jae’Lyn Withers all netted at least 35 percent from distance. Also tenacious on the glass, UNC ranked inside the top 100 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage since February 1.
Weaknesses: Carolina’s defense couldn’t stop a toddler from scoring on a Little Tikes hoop. Its questionable rotations, wide driving lanes and general passive manner are why the Heels ranked a miserable No. 282 in effective field goal percentage defense over the regular season’s final month. Most horrendously, they allowed 39.3 percent on 3s during that span to rank a hideous No. 338 nationally. With no player over 6-foot-9 logging 40 percent of the team’s minutes, Michael Jordan U’s thin frontcourt can also be brutalized at times.
Outlook: North Carolina is more deserving of the NIT. Sure, it’s a brand name that has cranked out numerous legends over the years, but this mediocre bunch lacks the defense and height to compete beyond Round 1. There are better double-digit sleepers to advance bracket lines. As good as the Tar Heels are offensively, they simply have too many flaws in critical categories.
—Brad Evans
What to know: UNC sneaks into the tourney despite a friendly defense that always leaves the door open.
Record: 22-13 (13-7 ACC)
Coach: Hubert Davis (7-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: RJ Davis (Second Team All-ACC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
9.4%
Final Four projected chance
0.9%
Strengths: VCU may have the best guard group in the entire country. Max Shulga, Phillip Russell and Joe Bamisile are a three-headed monster, and Zeb Jackson comes off the bench as a double-figure scorer as well. Guards win ballgames in March, and the Rams have four seniors they can rely on. That’s scary. Defensively, the Rams are elite, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage defense (45.1 percent) and top-30 in both turnover and steal percentage. They turn you over, share the ball, attempt a ton of 3-pointers and don’t allow opponents to shoot it well. There’s a lot to like about this group.
Weaknesses: Really, it’s VCU’s overall resume that raises questions. It has just one Quad 1 win and a Quad 4 loss to 7-24 Seton Hall in overtime. The Rams also played just one KenPom top-50 team (New Mexico) and lost by seven, so it’s hard to gauge how they would fare against some of the best teams in the country. The other concern? The frontcourt depth is pretty thin with three 6-foot-10 forwards in Jack Clark, Christian Fermin and Luke Bamgboye. They hold down the fort, but they aren’t going to blow anyone away down low with their scoring or rebounding.
Outlook: VCU’s guard play and defensive prowess scream that it’s a team that can upset a higher seed and make some noise in March. We just haven’t seen it happen on the court against the best of the best. That reality warrants cautious optimism, but man, it feels like Shulga is bound to hit a big shot to win a game.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: VCU may have the best guard group in the entire country. Max Shulga, Phillip Russell and Joe Bamisile are a three-headed monster, and Zeb Jackson comes off the bench as a double-figure scorer as well. Guards win ballgames in March, and the Rams have four seniors they can rely on. That’s scary. Defensively, the Rams are elite, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage defense (45.1 percent) and top-30 in both turnover and steal percentage. They turn you over, share the ball, attempt a ton of 3-pointers and don’t allow opponents to shoot it well. There’s a lot to like about this group.
Weaknesses: Really, it’s VCU’s overall resume that raises questions. It has just one Quad 1 win and a Quad 4 loss to 7-24 Seton Hall in overtime. The Rams also played just one KenPom top-50 team (New Mexico) and lost by seven, so it’s hard to gauge how they would fare against some of the best teams in the country. The other concern? The frontcourt depth is pretty thin with three 6-foot-10 forwards in Jack Clark, Christian Fermin and Luke Bamgboye. They hold down the fort, but they aren’t going to blow anyone away down low with their scoring or rebounding.
Outlook: VCU’s guard play and defensive prowess scream that it’s a team that can upset a higher seed and make some noise in March. We just haven’t seen it happen on the court against the best of the best. That reality warrants cautious optimism, but man, it feels like Shulga is bound to hit a big shot to win a game.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: VCU may have the best guard group in the entire country. Max Shulga, Phillip Russell and Joe Bamisile are a three-headed monster, and Zeb Jackson comes off the bench as a double-figure scorer as well. Guards win ballgames in March, and the Rams have four seniors they can rely on. That’s scary. Defensively, the Rams are elite, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage defense (45.1 percent) and top-30 in both turnover and steal percentage. They turn you over, share the ball, attempt a ton of 3-pointers and don’t allow opponents to shoot it well. There’s a lot to like about this group.
Weaknesses: Really, it’s VCU’s overall resume that raises questions. It has just one Quad 1 win and a Quad 4 loss to 7-24 Seton Hall in overtime. The Rams also played just one KenPom top-50 team (New Mexico) and lost by seven, so it’s hard to gauge how they would fare against some of the best teams in the country. The other concern? The frontcourt depth is pretty thin with three 6-foot-10 forwards in Jack Clark, Christian Fermin and Luke Bamgboye. They hold down the fort, but they aren’t going to blow anyone away down low with their scoring or rebounding.
Outlook: VCU’s guard play and defensive prowess scream that it’s a team that can upset a higher seed and make some noise in March. We just haven’t seen it happen on the court against the best of the best. That reality warrants cautious optimism, but man, it feels like Shulga is bound to hit a big shot to win a game.
—Sam Lance
What to know: VCU features elite guard play and a stingy defense, but it lacks games against quality competition.
Record: 28-6 (15-3 A-10)
Coach: Ryan Odom (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Max Shulga (Atlantic 10 Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
23.8%
Final Four projected chance
2.8%
Strengths: Peaking at the right time is a phrase that best applies to the citizens of Cincinnati. Over the regular season’s last month, Xavier was the Big East’s highest performing team, checking in at No. 17 overall according to BartTorvik. Popping nets during that stretch, Sean Miller’s men showed considerable scoring giddyup. In their final eight games before the postseason, they ranked No. 34 nationally in effective field goal percentage, drilling 55.8 percent on 2-pointers and 38.7 percent on 3s, and they shot 79.3 percent on free throws and finished top-five in assist rate. Also, the Musketeers forced a turnover on close to 21 percent of opponent possessions and masterfully sealed off the glass.
Weaknesses: The biggest liability for Zach Freemantle and friends is defense. Over the regular season’s final month, Xavier was a rather doughy No. 254 in effective field goal percentage D, surrendering 55.6 percent inside the arc. That around-the-rim vulnerability is a concern when facing teams with formidable post action. Per Haslametrics, the Musketeers slotted a very average No. 99 in near-proximity percentage defense.
Outlook: Momentum is often one heck of a postseason elixir. The X-Men enter March’s main event influenced by it. Yes, they sorely lacked quality resume wins, but their divine offensive execution on the regular season’s back nine collected numerous birdies. It’s buyable the Muskies leave a divot or three in non-believers’ brackets. According to KenPom, they are the most experienced team in the entire field next to Kansas. The never-gets-carded group shouldn’t be underestimated.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Peaking at the right time is a phrase that best applies to the citizens of Cincinnati. Over the regular season’s last month, Xavier was the Big East’s highest performing team, checking in at No. 17 overall according to BartTorvik. Popping nets during that stretch, Sean Miller’s men showed considerable scoring giddyup. In their final eight games before the postseason, they ranked No. 34 nationally in effective field goal percentage, drilling 55.8 percent on 2-pointers and 38.7 percent on 3s, and they shot 79.3 percent on free throws and finished top-five in assist rate. Also, the Musketeers forced a turnover on close to 21 percent of opponent possessions and masterfully sealed off the glass.
Weaknesses: The biggest liability for Zach Freemantle and friends is defense. Over the regular season’s final month, Xavier was a rather doughy No. 254 in effective field goal percentage D, surrendering 55.6 percent inside the arc. That around-the-rim vulnerability is a concern when facing teams with formidable post action. Per Haslametrics, the Musketeers slotted a very average No. 99 in near-proximity percentage defense.
Outlook: Momentum is often one heck of a postseason elixir. The X-Men enter March’s main event influenced by it. Yes, they sorely lacked quality resume wins, but their divine offensive execution on the regular season’s back nine collected numerous birdies. It’s buyable the Muskies leave a divot or three in non-believers’ brackets. According to KenPom, they are the most experienced team in the entire field next to Kansas. The never-gets-carded group shouldn’t be underestimated.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Peaking at the right time is a phrase that best applies to the citizens of Cincinnati. Over the regular season’s last month, Xavier was the Big East’s highest performing team, checking in at No. 17 overall according to BartTorvik. Popping nets during that stretch, Sean Miller’s men showed considerable scoring giddyup. In their final eight games before the postseason, they ranked No. 34 nationally in effective field goal percentage, drilling 55.8 percent on 2-pointers and 38.7 percent on 3s, and they shot 79.3 percent on free throws and finished top-five in assist rate. Also, the Musketeers forced a turnover on close to 21 percent of opponent possessions and masterfully sealed off the glass.
Weaknesses: The biggest liability for Zach Freemantle and friends is defense. Over the regular season’s final month, Xavier was a rather doughy No. 254 in effective field goal percentage D, surrendering 55.6 percent inside the arc. That around-the-rim vulnerability is a concern when facing teams with formidable post action. Per Haslametrics, the Musketeers slotted a very average No. 99 in near-proximity percentage defense.
Outlook: Momentum is often one heck of a postseason elixir. The X-Men enter March’s main event influenced by it. Yes, they sorely lacked quality resume wins, but their divine offensive execution on the regular season’s back nine collected numerous birdies. It’s buyable the Muskies leave a divot or three in non-believers’ brackets. According to KenPom, they are the most experienced team in the entire field next to Kansas. The never-gets-carded group shouldn’t be underestimated.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The Muskies swashbuckle into the field despite wielding a foam sword in myriad defensive categories.
Record: 21-11 (13-7 Big East)
Coach: Sean Miller (21-12 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Zach Freemantle (Second Team All-Big East)
Sweet 16 projected chance
7.6%
Final Four projected chance
0.5%
Strengths: Texas has as much individual shotmaking as any team in the country. It starts with Tre Johnson, a potential top-five pick in the 2025 NBA Draft who averaged 20 points in the regular season. He’s as dangerous as any scorer in college basketball. Arthur Kaluma is the prototypical combo forward who creates all kinds of matchup problems. Jordan Pope is a score-first lead guard who went for 42 points against New Orleans. Tramon Mark has battled injuries but is one of four rotation players who shoots at least 35 percent on 3-pointers. Rodney Terry has built a roster that is not short on shotmakers and game-changing talents.
Weaknesses: While it’s nice to be able to have players capable of taking and making tough shots, living on a diet of contested midrange jumpers in isolation situations is a hard way to survive. No one on this team creates easy shots for teammates. Of the Longhorns’ four high-usage guards, Johnson had the best regular-season assist rate at 16.1, which is a really low number. For context, he averages less than three assists per game while playing more than 33 minutes a night. Pope, the point guard, averages only two assists. The best shot-creator is Julian Larry, a transfer from Indiana State who is probably playing above his level in the Big 12. It’s a tough situation to be in.
Outlook: Texas is capable of beating really good teams. It has wins over Missouri, Texas A&M and Kentucky, three teams with very real second-weekend potential. Johnson and Mark combined for 58 points against UK. Johnson went for 30 against the Aggies. Simply put, the Longhorns have enough talent to pull an upset against a higher seed if one of their scorers catches fire. However, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where that happens two or three games in a row. Take Texas to the second weekend at your own risk.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Texas has as much individual shotmaking as any team in the country. It starts with Tre Johnson, a potential top-five pick in the 2025 NBA Draft who averaged 20 points in the regular season. He’s as dangerous as any scorer in college basketball. Arthur Kaluma is the prototypical combo forward who creates all kinds of matchup problems. Jordan Pope is a score-first lead guard who went for 42 points against New Orleans. Tramon Mark has battled injuries but is one of four rotation players who shoots at least 35 percent on 3-pointers. Rodney Terry has built a roster that is not short on shotmakers and game-changing talents.
Weaknesses: While it’s nice to be able to have players capable of taking and making tough shots, living on a diet of contested midrange jumpers in isolation situations is a hard way to survive. No one on this team creates easy shots for teammates. Of the Longhorns’ four high-usage guards, Johnson had the best regular-season assist rate at 16.1, which is a really low number. For context, he averages less than three assists per game while playing more than 33 minutes a night. Pope, the point guard, averages only two assists. The best shot-creator is Julian Larry, a transfer from Indiana State who is probably playing above his level in the Big 12. It’s a tough situation to be in.
Outlook: Texas is capable of beating really good teams. It has wins over Missouri, Texas A&M and Kentucky, three teams with very real second-weekend potential. Johnson and Mark combined for 58 points against UK. Johnson went for 30 against the Aggies. Simply put, the Longhorns have enough talent to pull an upset against a higher seed if one of their scorers catches fire. However, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where that happens two or three games in a row. Take Texas to the second weekend at your own risk.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Texas has as much individual shotmaking as any team in the country. It starts with Tre Johnson, a potential top-five pick in the 2025 NBA Draft who averaged 20 points in the regular season. He’s as dangerous as any scorer in college basketball. Arthur Kaluma is the prototypical combo forward who creates all kinds of matchup problems. Jordan Pope is a score-first lead guard who went for 42 points against New Orleans. Tramon Mark has battled injuries but is one of four rotation players who shoots at least 35 percent on 3-pointers. Rodney Terry has built a roster that is not short on shotmakers and game-changing talents.
Weaknesses: While it’s nice to be able to have players capable of taking and making tough shots, living on a diet of contested midrange jumpers in isolation situations is a hard way to survive. No one on this team creates easy shots for teammates. Of the Longhorns’ four high-usage guards, Johnson had the best regular-season assist rate at 16.1, which is a really low number. For context, he averages less than three assists per game while playing more than 33 minutes a night. Pope, the point guard, averages only two assists. The best shot-creator is Julian Larry, a transfer from Indiana State who is probably playing above his level in the Big 12. It’s a tough situation to be in.
Outlook: Texas is capable of beating really good teams. It has wins over Missouri, Texas A&M and Kentucky, three teams with very real second-weekend potential. Johnson and Mark combined for 58 points against UK. Johnson went for 30 against the Aggies. Simply put, the Longhorns have enough talent to pull an upset against a higher seed if one of their scorers catches fire. However, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where that happens two or three games in a row. Take Texas to the second weekend at your own risk.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: The Longhorns have as much individual talent as any team outside the top four seeds.
Record: 19-15 (6-12 SEC)
Coach: Rodney Terry (4-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tre Johnson (Second Team All-SEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
4.8%
Final Four projected chance
0.3%
Strengths: Kendrick Lamar wouldn’t feud with this Drake. It is a divine defensive squad that purposely applies the brake in order to maximize exasperation. No team in the country ranks lower in adjusted tempo. Excellent at contesting shots, the Bulldogs allowed only 1.009 points per possession over their final 10 regular-season games. Equipped with active hands, they forced a turnover on over 20 percent of opponent possessions down the stretch. Tireless workers on the glass, they generate abundant one-and-dones and second-chance opportunities, and they’re no slouches on offense despite their in-the-60s tempo. They shot 36 percent along the arc over the final month of the regular season.
Weaknesses: Bennett Stirtz is a tremendous scorer and athlete, but Drake isn’t full of jumping jacks. Fleet-footed transition teams capable of sprinting ahead before Ben McCollum’s defense can set up present a glaring problem. Below average in rim protection, the Bulldogs ranked a beatable No. 291 in near-proximity defense before the postseason, according to Haslametrics. Also outside the top 220 in free-throw percentage and offensive turnover rate, they are prone to hurting themselves at times.
Outlook: The winner of ArchMadness is a mid-major force that thrives off frustration. Similar in style to the Houston Cougars, Drake blankets the hardwood in the half court, leaning on its exceptional defense and rebounding. The patient Bulldogs are extremely disciplined in their execution. In other words, they prefer sipping to chugging. Having upended Kansas State and Vanderbilt in non-conference play, they won’t be intimidated by the name emblazoned on the opponent’s jersey. Advancing multiple bracket lines isn’t an unfathomable conclusion.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Kendrick Lamar wouldn’t feud with this Drake. It is a divine defensive squad that purposely applies the brake in order to maximize exasperation. No team in the country ranks lower in adjusted tempo. Excellent at contesting shots, the Bulldogs allowed only 1.009 points per possession over their final 10 regular-season games. Equipped with active hands, they forced a turnover on over 20 percent of opponent possessions down the stretch. Tireless workers on the glass, they generate abundant one-and-dones and second-chance opportunities, and they’re no slouches on offense despite their in-the-60s tempo. They shot 36 percent along the arc over the final month of the regular season.
Weaknesses: Bennett Stirtz is a tremendous scorer and athlete, but Drake isn’t full of jumping jacks. Fleet-footed transition teams capable of sprinting ahead before Ben McCollum’s defense can set up present a glaring problem. Below average in rim protection, the Bulldogs ranked a beatable No. 291 in near-proximity defense before the postseason, according to Haslametrics. Also outside the top 220 in free-throw percentage and offensive turnover rate, they are prone to hurting themselves at times.
Outlook: The winner of ArchMadness is a mid-major force that thrives off frustration. Similar in style to the Houston Cougars, Drake blankets the hardwood in the half court, leaning on its exceptional defense and rebounding. The patient Bulldogs are extremely disciplined in their execution. In other words, they prefer sipping to chugging. Having upended Kansas State and Vanderbilt in non-conference play, they won’t be intimidated by the name emblazoned on the opponent’s jersey. Advancing multiple bracket lines isn’t an unfathomable conclusion.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Kendrick Lamar wouldn’t feud with this Drake. It is a divine defensive squad that purposely applies the brake in order to maximize exasperation. No team in the country ranks lower in adjusted tempo. Excellent at contesting shots, the Bulldogs allowed only 1.009 points per possession over their final 10 regular-season games. Equipped with active hands, they forced a turnover on over 20 percent of opponent possessions down the stretch. Tireless workers on the glass, they generate abundant one-and-dones and second-chance opportunities, and they’re no slouches on offense despite their in-the-60s tempo. They shot 36 percent along the arc over the final month of the regular season.
Weaknesses: Bennett Stirtz is a tremendous scorer and athlete, but Drake isn’t full of jumping jacks. Fleet-footed transition teams capable of sprinting ahead before Ben McCollum’s defense can set up present a glaring problem. Below average in rim protection, the Bulldogs ranked a beatable No. 291 in near-proximity defense before the postseason, according to Haslametrics. Also outside the top 220 in free-throw percentage and offensive turnover rate, they are prone to hurting themselves at times.
Outlook: The winner of ArchMadness is a mid-major force that thrives off frustration. Similar in style to the Houston Cougars, Drake blankets the hardwood in the half court, leaning on its exceptional defense and rebounding. The patient Bulldogs are extremely disciplined in their execution. In other words, they prefer sipping to chugging. Having upended Kansas State and Vanderbilt in non-conference play, they won’t be intimidated by the name emblazoned on the opponent’s jersey. Advancing multiple bracket lines isn’t an unfathomable conclusion.
—Brad Evans
What to know: Given its plus defense and slow halfcourt style, even Jerry Seinfeld agrees gamers should love Drake.
Record: 30-3 (17-3 MVC)
Coach: Ben McCollum (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Bennett Stirtz (MVC Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
12.2%
Final Four projected chance
1.3%
Strengths: UC San Diego surfs up with remarkable balance and across-the-board execution. Computer metrics have been on bended knee for the Tritons throughout the season. A top-60 overall team on KenPom and BartTorvik, Olen’s group shouldn’t be remotely discounted. Over the regular season’s final month, they ranked top-10 (!) nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense and effective field-goal percentage defense. They were particularly deadly from 3 during that 10-game stretch. Over 52 percent of their shots were jacked from distance where they nailed an absurd 40.9 percent. On the season, Hayden Gray drilled 42 percent from the arc and led the country in steals percentage. He’s only one example of UC SD’s two-way appeal. Unyielding as a collective, the Tritons ranked No. 2 in turnover percentage defense (23.3 percent), No. 19 in two-point percentage D (46.2 percent) and No. 43 in points per possession allowed (0.965). Again, they’re stellar on both ends.
Weaknesses: Featuring only adequate size, UC San Diego isn’t the strongest on the glass. During the final month of the regular season, they ranked 180-plus in offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding percentage. It also explains why only 41.5 percent of the Tritons’ points are registered on 2s, which ranks No. 356 in the country. You could say, they’re the epitome of “live and die by the 3.” Checking in at No. 335 in bench minutes according to KenPom, their depth is almost nonexistent. Avoiding whistles is a must.
Outlook: The Big West reps are a big-time sleeper. Bettors in attendance are fully aware. No team in college basketball covered the spread better than UCSD (25-7 ATS). It boasts kleptomaniac hands on defense and a smooth outside stroke when in possession. Olen’s squad rarely makes mistakes. Not to be overlooked, New Zealand import Tait-Jones is a phenomenal rim attacker who generates ample points at the charity stripe. Given their consistency from the arc, general judiciousness and steady challenges, the Tritons are seemingly bound to don a glass slipper.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: UC San Diego surfs up with remarkable balance and across-the-board execution. Computer metrics have been on bended knee for the Tritons throughout the season. A top-60 overall team on KenPom and BartTorvik, Olen’s group shouldn’t be remotely discounted. Over the regular season’s final month, they ranked top-10 (!) nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense and effective field-goal percentage defense. They were particularly deadly from 3 during that 10-game stretch. Over 52 percent of their shots were jacked from distance where they nailed an absurd 40.9 percent. On the season, Hayden Gray drilled 42 percent from the arc and led the country in steals percentage. He’s only one example of UC SD’s two-way appeal. Unyielding as a collective, the Tritons ranked No. 2 in turnover percentage defense (23.3 percent), No. 19 in two-point percentage D (46.2 percent) and No. 43 in points per possession allowed (0.965). Again, they’re stellar on both ends.
Weaknesses: Featuring only adequate size, UC San Diego isn’t the strongest on the glass. During the final month of the regular season, they ranked 180-plus in offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding percentage. It also explains why only 41.5 percent of the Tritons’ points are registered on 2s, which ranks No. 356 in the country. You could say, they’re the epitome of “live and die by the 3.” Checking in at No. 335 in bench minutes according to KenPom, their depth is almost nonexistent. Avoiding whistles is a must.
Outlook: The Big West reps are a big-time sleeper. Bettors in attendance are fully aware. No team in college basketball covered the spread better than UCSD (25-7 ATS). It boasts kleptomaniac hands on defense and a smooth outside stroke when in possession. Olen’s squad rarely makes mistakes. Not to be overlooked, New Zealand import Tait-Jones is a phenomenal rim attacker who generates ample points at the charity stripe. Given their consistency from the arc, general judiciousness and steady challenges, the Tritons are seemingly bound to don a glass slipper.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: UC San Diego surfs up with remarkable balance and across-the-board execution. Computer metrics have been on bended knee for the Tritons throughout the season. A top-60 overall team on KenPom and BartTorvik, Olen’s group shouldn’t be remotely discounted. Over the regular season’s final month, they ranked top-10 (!) nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense and effective field-goal percentage defense. They were particularly deadly from 3 during that 10-game stretch. Over 52 percent of their shots were jacked from distance where they nailed an absurd 40.9 percent. On the season, Hayden Gray drilled 42 percent from the arc and led the country in steals percentage. He’s only one example of UC SD’s two-way appeal. Unyielding as a collective, the Tritons ranked No. 2 in turnover percentage defense (23.3 percent), No. 19 in two-point percentage D (46.2 percent) and No. 43 in points per possession allowed (0.965). Again, they’re stellar on both ends.
Weaknesses: Featuring only adequate size, UC San Diego isn’t the strongest on the glass. During the final month of the regular season, they ranked 180-plus in offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding percentage. It also explains why only 41.5 percent of the Tritons’ points are registered on 2s, which ranks No. 356 in the country. You could say, they’re the epitome of “live and die by the 3.” Checking in at No. 335 in bench minutes according to KenPom, their depth is almost nonexistent. Avoiding whistles is a must.
Outlook: The Big West reps are a big-time sleeper. Bettors in attendance are fully aware. No team in college basketball covered the spread better than UCSD (25-7 ATS). It boasts kleptomaniac hands on defense and a smooth outside stroke when in possession. Olen’s squad rarely makes mistakes. Not to be overlooked, New Zealand import Tait-Jones is a phenomenal rim attacker who generates ample points at the charity stripe. Given their consistency from the arc, general judiciousness and steady challenges, the Tritons are seemingly bound to don a glass slipper.
—Brad Evans
What to know: With pitchforks in hand, the advanced analytics darling could soon earn national recognition as a true double-digit seed Cinderella.
Record: 30-4 (18-2 Big West)
Coach: Eric Olen (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (Big West Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
15.6%
Final Four projected chance
1.1%
Outlook: Liberty is the best shooting team in college basketball. That’s not hyperbole, either. They ranked No. 1 in effective field goal percentage and shot nearly 40 percent from 3 as a team while getting up 3s on 48 percent of their field goal attempts. Kaden Metheny and Colin Porter and sub 6-foot guards, but they really know how to play, and Zach Cleveland gives the Flames a different dynamic as an athletic, 6-foot-7 facilitator. The difference this year is that Ritchie McKay hit the portal and added more size and athleticism in the form of Owen Aquino and Jayvon Maughmer. The Flames run really good offense and a disciplined pack-line defense that does not give up fast break points or second-chance opportunities. They control tempo and they can rip off 15 3s in any game they play. If they get hot, watch out.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Liberty is the best shooting team in college basketball. That’s not hyperbole, either. They ranked No. 1 in effective field goal percentage and shot nearly 40 percent from 3 as a team while getting up 3s on 48 percent of their field goal attempts. Kaden Metheny and Colin Porter and sub 6-foot guards, but they really know how to play, and Zach Cleveland gives the Flames a different dynamic as an athletic, 6-foot-7 facilitator. The difference this year is that Ritchie McKay hit the portal and added more size and athleticism in the form of Owen Aquino and Jayvon Maughmer. The Flames run really good offense and a disciplined pack-line defense that does not give up fast break points or second-chance opportunities. They control tempo and they can rip off 15 3s in any game they play. If they get hot, watch out.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Liberty is the best shooting team in college basketball. That’s not hyperbole, either. They ranked No. 1 in effective field goal percentage and shot nearly 40 percent from 3 as a team while getting up 3s on 48 percent of their field goal attempts. Kaden Metheny and Colin Porter and sub 6-foot guards, but they really know how to play, and Zach Cleveland gives the Flames a different dynamic as an athletic, 6-foot-7 facilitator. The difference this year is that Ritchie McKay hit the portal and added more size and athleticism in the form of Owen Aquino and Jayvon Maughmer. The Flames run really good offense and a disciplined pack-line defense that does not give up fast break points or second-chance opportunities. They control tempo and they can rip off 15 3s in any game they play. If they get hot, watch out.
—Rob Dauster
Record: 28-6 (13-5 CUSA)
Coach: Ritchie McKay (1-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kaden Metheny (Second Team All-CUSA)
Sweet 16 projected chance
10.4%
Final Four projected chance
0.4%
Strengths: For the second season in a row, the Pokes rolled through the Southland Conference after a challenging non-conference schedule. Last year’s group had the more impressive victories, picking off the likes of VCU, UAB and Michigan. This team didn’t win as many games because it had to reinvent itself after leading scorer Alyn Breed went down with a knee injury. McNeese is built on its ability to defend. It forces turnovers, does a lot of switching and dares opponents to beat it with 3-pointers or in one-on-one settings.
Weaknesses: The Cowboys’ biggest issue last season, when they went 30-3 and then got drubbed by Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament’s first round, was their lack of size, length and athleticism to compete with a team like the Zags. Wade addressed the flaws in the transfer portal by adding bigger and more athletic players like Quadir Copeland, Joe Charles and Brandon Murray. Now, the problem is that McNeese relies on its athleticism and physicality on defense, gambling to force turnovers but giving up easy baskets. It also can be picked apart on the offensive glass. That can be exposed by opponents with an equal level of talent.
Outlook: Breed was supposed to be the difference maker. The 6-foot-3 scoring guard averaged a team-best 17.5 points through two games before the season-ending injury. Without him, the Cowboys have been a bit limited in what they can do in the half court. They pound the offensive glass and are terrific at scoring off turnovers, but the big concern is what happens when they can’t get the easy baskets. Are they efficient enough in the half court? Do they have someone they can trust at the end of the shot clock? I think the answer is yes. This team can, and should, win a game in the NCAA Tournament.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: For the second season in a row, the Pokes rolled through the Southland Conference after a challenging non-conference schedule. Last year’s group had the more impressive victories, picking off the likes of VCU, UAB and Michigan. This team didn’t win as many games because it had to reinvent itself after leading scorer Alyn Breed went down with a knee injury. McNeese is built on its ability to defend. It forces turnovers, does a lot of switching and dares opponents to beat it with 3-pointers or in one-on-one settings.
Weaknesses: The Cowboys’ biggest issue last season, when they went 30-3 and then got drubbed by Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament’s first round, was their lack of size, length and athleticism to compete with a team like the Zags. Wade addressed the flaws in the transfer portal by adding bigger and more athletic players like Quadir Copeland, Joe Charles and Brandon Murray. Now, the problem is that McNeese relies on its athleticism and physicality on defense, gambling to force turnovers but giving up easy baskets. It also can be picked apart on the offensive glass. That can be exposed by opponents with an equal level of talent.
Outlook: Breed was supposed to be the difference maker. The 6-foot-3 scoring guard averaged a team-best 17.5 points through two games before the season-ending injury. Without him, the Cowboys have been a bit limited in what they can do in the half court. They pound the offensive glass and are terrific at scoring off turnovers, but the big concern is what happens when they can’t get the easy baskets. Are they efficient enough in the half court? Do they have someone they can trust at the end of the shot clock? I think the answer is yes. This team can, and should, win a game in the NCAA Tournament.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: For the second season in a row, the Pokes rolled through the Southland Conference after a challenging non-conference schedule. Last year’s group had the more impressive victories, picking off the likes of VCU, UAB and Michigan. This team didn’t win as many games because it had to reinvent itself after leading scorer Alyn Breed went down with a knee injury. McNeese is built on its ability to defend. It forces turnovers, does a lot of switching and dares opponents to beat it with 3-pointers or in one-on-one settings.
Weaknesses: The Cowboys’ biggest issue last season, when they went 30-3 and then got drubbed by Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament’s first round, was their lack of size, length and athleticism to compete with a team like the Zags. Wade addressed the flaws in the transfer portal by adding bigger and more athletic players like Quadir Copeland, Joe Charles and Brandon Murray. Now, the problem is that McNeese relies on its athleticism and physicality on defense, gambling to force turnovers but giving up easy baskets. It also can be picked apart on the offensive glass. That can be exposed by opponents with an equal level of talent.
Outlook: Breed was supposed to be the difference maker. The 6-foot-3 scoring guard averaged a team-best 17.5 points through two games before the season-ending injury. Without him, the Cowboys have been a bit limited in what they can do in the half court. They pound the offensive glass and are terrific at scoring off turnovers, but the big concern is what happens when they can’t get the easy baskets. Are they efficient enough in the half court? Do they have someone they can trust at the end of the shot clock? I think the answer is yes. This team can, and should, win a game in the NCAA Tournament.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: McNeese will be the trendiest 12-over-5 upset pick in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Record: 27-6 (19-1 Southland)
Coach: Will Wade (2-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Javohn Garcia (Southland Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
7.6%
Final Four projected chance
0.4%
Strengths: On offense, the Rams lower their heads, charge hard and send opponents flying. Hotter than a sunbaked blacktop in mid-July, they finished the last month of the regular season No. 7 nationally in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 53.1 percent on 2-pointers and an absolutely bananas 43.0 percent on 3s. Clifford is the straw who stirs the drink. Blessed with an all-around scoring skill set, he racked 25-point performances regularly. Colorado State is a strong pick-and-pop squad with Jalen Lake, Kyan Evans and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson routinely inflicting damage, and it has a tremendous rebounder in Rashaan Mbemba. He and Clifford are major reasons why CSU ranks top-20 in defensive rebounding percentage over the entire season.
Weaknesses: Defense isn’t one of State’s signature characteristics. In its last 10 regular-season games, it checked in at a terribly bland No. 181 in effective field goal percentage defense. Most alarmingly, it ranked outside the top 220 in 3-point percentage D, surrendering close to 36 percent. Also, the Rams are often too sloppy. Over their final 10 games before the postseason, they coughed up the rock on nearly 18 percent of their possessions. Playing composed must live at the top of their priority checklist.
Outlook: For teams firmly sitting on the bubble, Colorado State’s automatic berth triggered tears. An 11th-hour entrant, the Rams shouldn’t be taken lightly. Clifford is a pro — a top NBA prospect who is projected to be drafted in the first round. His shot creation, versatility and finishing talents are unquestionably spectacular. Overall, with a penchant for 3-point bombardments and glass waxings, CSU could be a Sweet 16 sleeper. Party on, Fort Collins.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: On offense, the Rams lower their heads, charge hard and send opponents flying. Hotter than a sunbaked blacktop in mid-July, they finished the last month of the regular season No. 7 nationally in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 53.1 percent on 2-pointers and an absolutely bananas 43.0 percent on 3s. Clifford is the straw who stirs the drink. Blessed with an all-around scoring skill set, he racked 25-point performances regularly. Colorado State is a strong pick-and-pop squad with Jalen Lake, Kyan Evans and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson routinely inflicting damage, and it has a tremendous rebounder in Rashaan Mbemba. He and Clifford are major reasons why CSU ranks top-20 in defensive rebounding percentage over the entire season.
Weaknesses: Defense isn’t one of State’s signature characteristics. In its last 10 regular-season games, it checked in at a terribly bland No. 181 in effective field goal percentage defense. Most alarmingly, it ranked outside the top 220 in 3-point percentage D, surrendering close to 36 percent. Also, the Rams are often too sloppy. Over their final 10 games before the postseason, they coughed up the rock on nearly 18 percent of their possessions. Playing composed must live at the top of their priority checklist.
Outlook: For teams firmly sitting on the bubble, Colorado State’s automatic berth triggered tears. An 11th-hour entrant, the Rams shouldn’t be taken lightly. Clifford is a pro — a top NBA prospect who is projected to be drafted in the first round. His shot creation, versatility and finishing talents are unquestionably spectacular. Overall, with a penchant for 3-point bombardments and glass waxings, CSU could be a Sweet 16 sleeper. Party on, Fort Collins.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: On offense, the Rams lower their heads, charge hard and send opponents flying. Hotter than a sunbaked blacktop in mid-July, they finished the last month of the regular season No. 7 nationally in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 53.1 percent on 2-pointers and an absolutely bananas 43.0 percent on 3s. Clifford is the straw who stirs the drink. Blessed with an all-around scoring skill set, he racked 25-point performances regularly. Colorado State is a strong pick-and-pop squad with Jalen Lake, Kyan Evans and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson routinely inflicting damage, and it has a tremendous rebounder in Rashaan Mbemba. He and Clifford are major reasons why CSU ranks top-20 in defensive rebounding percentage over the entire season.
Weaknesses: Defense isn’t one of State’s signature characteristics. In its last 10 regular-season games, it checked in at a terribly bland No. 181 in effective field goal percentage defense. Most alarmingly, it ranked outside the top 220 in 3-point percentage D, surrendering close to 36 percent. Also, the Rams are often too sloppy. Over their final 10 games before the postseason, they coughed up the rock on nearly 18 percent of their possessions. Playing composed must live at the top of their priority checklist.
Outlook: For teams firmly sitting on the bubble, Colorado State’s automatic berth triggered tears. An 11th-hour entrant, the Rams shouldn’t be taken lightly. Clifford is a pro — a top NBA prospect who is projected to be drafted in the first round. His shot creation, versatility and finishing talents are unquestionably spectacular. Overall, with a penchant for 3-point bombardments and glass waxings, CSU could be a Sweet 16 sleeper. Party on, Fort Collins.
—Brad Evans
What to know: The Mountain West auto-earner quite possibly could be the hottest offensive team in the country.
Record: 25-9 (16-4 MWC)
Coach: Niko Medved (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Nique Clifford (First Team All-Mountain West)
Sweet 16 projected chance
23.6%
Final Four projected chance
2.3%
Outlook: America’s most underrated coach is heading back to the NCAA Tournament. James Jones has led Yale to four NCAA Tournaments since 2016, and it likely would have been five had the 2020 season completed. He’s won either the Ivy League regular season or tournament title in each of the last six seasons, and last year, the Elis beat Auburn in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. What makes Yale dangerous this season is that the Bulldogs don’t beat themselves. They don’t turn the ball over. They don’t give up offensive rebounds. They are really good at cutting off dribble penetration, they force opponents to settle for contested 3s and happen to shoot 39 percent from 3 themselves. John Poulakidas is the star, a 6-foot-6 lefty sniper that scored 28 points in last year’s win vs. Auburn. Nick Townsend is a versatile four that creates real issues for teams because of his shooting and playmaking. Bez Mbeng is arguably the best mid-major guard in all of college basketball. Yale is a veteran group that has won in the dance. They know what it takes, and you’re not going to make your 3s against them, you’re going to have a long night.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: America’s most underrated coach is heading back to the NCAA Tournament. James Jones has led Yale to four NCAA Tournaments since 2016, and it likely would have been five had the 2020 season completed. He’s won either the Ivy League regular season or tournament title in each of the last six seasons, and last year, the Elis beat Auburn in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. What makes Yale dangerous this season is that the Bulldogs don’t beat themselves. They don’t turn the ball over. They don’t give up offensive rebounds. They are really good at cutting off dribble penetration, they force opponents to settle for contested 3s and happen to shoot 39 percent from 3 themselves. John Poulakidas is the star, a 6-foot-6 lefty sniper that scored 28 points in last year’s win vs. Auburn. Nick Townsend is a versatile four that creates real issues for teams because of his shooting and playmaking. Bez Mbeng is arguably the best mid-major guard in all of college basketball. Yale is a veteran group that has won in the dance. They know what it takes, and you’re not going to make your 3s against them, you’re going to have a long night.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: America’s most underrated coach is heading back to the NCAA Tournament. James Jones has led Yale to four NCAA Tournaments since 2016, and it likely would have been five had the 2020 season completed. He’s won either the Ivy League regular season or tournament title in each of the last six seasons, and last year, the Elis beat Auburn in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. What makes Yale dangerous this season is that the Bulldogs don’t beat themselves. They don’t turn the ball over. They don’t give up offensive rebounds. They are really good at cutting off dribble penetration, they force opponents to settle for contested 3s and happen to shoot 39 percent from 3 themselves. John Poulakidas is the star, a 6-foot-6 lefty sniper that scored 28 points in last year’s win vs. Auburn. Nick Townsend is a versatile four that creates real issues for teams because of his shooting and playmaking. Bez Mbeng is arguably the best mid-major guard in all of college basketball. Yale is a veteran group that has won in the dance. They know what it takes, and you’re not going to make your 3s against them, you’re going to have a long night.
—Rob Dauster
Record: 22-7 (13-1 Ivy)
Coach: James Jones (2-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: John Poulakidas (First Team All-Ivy League)
Sweet 16 projected chance
10.9%
Final Four projected chance
0.6%
Outlook: The wonderfully bone-polished dome of head coach John Groce once again is in the NCAA Tournament. Throughout the season, Akron received multiple ‘As’ on offense. In its 34-game entirety, it ranks No. 31 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense, scoring 55.8 percent inside the arc and 36.6 percent outside of it. In fact, over 38 percent of its points came on equalizers. Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott, Sharron Young, Bowen Hardman and Isaiah Gray each converted at least 36.5 percent from the perimeter. Prolific. Over the final 10 games of the regular season, the Zips didn’t exactly zap the competition on D, slotting outside the top 180 in effective field-goal percentage defense. At No. 361 in effective height, formidable frontcourts can bully them. However, given Akron’s plus depth, arc execution and bouncy offensive glass energy, it’s hardly a “gross” double-digit seed. Ba-dum-tss!
—Brad Evans
Outlook: The wonderfully bone-polished dome of head coach John Groce once again is in the NCAA Tournament. Throughout the season, Akron received multiple ‘As’ on offense. In its 34-game entirety, it ranks No. 31 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense, scoring 55.8 percent inside the arc and 36.6 percent outside of it. In fact, over 38 percent of its points came on equalizers. Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott, Sharron Young, Bowen Hardman and Isaiah Gray each converted at least 36.5 percent from the perimeter. Prolific. Over the final 10 games of the regular season, the Zips didn’t exactly zap the competition on D, slotting outside the top 180 in effective field-goal percentage defense. At No. 361 in effective height, formidable frontcourts can bully them. However, given Akron’s plus depth, arc execution and bouncy offensive glass energy, it’s hardly a “gross” double-digit seed. Ba-dum-tss!
—Brad Evans
Outlook: The wonderfully bone-polished dome of head coach John Groce once again is in the NCAA Tournament. Throughout the season, Akron received multiple ‘As’ on offense. In its 34-game entirety, it ranks No. 31 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense, scoring 55.8 percent inside the arc and 36.6 percent outside of it. In fact, over 38 percent of its points came on equalizers. Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott, Sharron Young, Bowen Hardman and Isaiah Gray each converted at least 36.5 percent from the perimeter. Prolific. Over the final 10 games of the regular season, the Zips didn’t exactly zap the competition on D, slotting outside the top 180 in effective field-goal percentage defense. At No. 361 in effective height, formidable frontcourts can bully them. However, given Akron’s plus depth, arc execution and bouncy offensive glass energy, it’s hardly a “gross” double-digit seed. Ba-dum-tss!
—Brad Evans
Record: 28-6 (17-1 MAC)
Coach: John Groce (4-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Nate Johnson (MAC Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
3.7%
Final Four projected chance
0.07%
Strengths: High Point has one of the most potent offensive systems in all of college basketball. Alan Huss has put together a roster of players that, frankly, should be at a higher level. It is loaded with transfers who have moved down from the high-major level or turned down better offers. The Panthers are balanced and deep, and they have a five-man who can match up with any Power 5 center and enough guard talent that can keep them in any game. Think about this: They erased a 15-point deficit in the second half of the Big South title game, and their bench was responsible for a full nine-minute stretch during that run. They are a top-25 offense, and some opponent will learn that fact the hard way in the Dance.
Weaknesses: There are two concerns with this group. For starters, it is not a great defensive team by the numbers. It led the Big South in defensive efficiency, but that was good for ranking outside the top 200 nationally. If you’re giving up 100 points to UNC Asheville, what happens when you play a high-major opponent? The other concern is what happens when High Point plays comparable talent. It can overwhelm teams with size, length and athleticism in the Big South, and there’s a reason why its high-major transfers left their programs. Also, the Panthers didn’t play a single high-major team this season. So it is fair to wonder what will happen when they get tested.
Outlook: Kezza Giffa and D’Maurian Williams make for a really dangerous one-two perimeter punch. Bobby Pettiford was a promising freshman at Kansas once upon a time. Juslin Bodo Bodo dunks everything around the rim. And Kimani Hamilton, like Giffa, is a first-team all-league player. There are weapons up and down the roster, but the same thing was said last year about McNeese State, which got absolutely obliterated in the first round by Gonzaga. High Point has the offensive firepower to win a game or two in March, but if you are a skeptic, your doubts are not unwarranted.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: High Point has one of the most potent offensive systems in all of college basketball. Alan Huss has put together a roster of players that, frankly, should be at a higher level. It is loaded with transfers who have moved down from the high-major level or turned down better offers. The Panthers are balanced and deep, and they have a five-man who can match up with any Power 5 center and enough guard talent that can keep them in any game. Think about this: They erased a 15-point deficit in the second half of the Big South title game, and their bench was responsible for a full nine-minute stretch during that run. They are a top-25 offense, and some opponent will learn that fact the hard way in the Dance.
Weaknesses: There are two concerns with this group. For starters, it is not a great defensive team by the numbers. It led the Big South in defensive efficiency, but that was good for ranking outside the top 200 nationally. If you’re giving up 100 points to UNC Asheville, what happens when you play a high-major opponent? The other concern is what happens when High Point plays comparable talent. It can overwhelm teams with size, length and athleticism in the Big South, and there’s a reason why its high-major transfers left their programs. Also, the Panthers didn’t play a single high-major team this season. So it is fair to wonder what will happen when they get tested.
Outlook: Kezza Giffa and D’Maurian Williams make for a really dangerous one-two perimeter punch. Bobby Pettiford was a promising freshman at Kansas once upon a time. Juslin Bodo Bodo dunks everything around the rim. And Kimani Hamilton, like Giffa, is a first-team all-league player. There are weapons up and down the roster, but the same thing was said last year about McNeese State, which got absolutely obliterated in the first round by Gonzaga. High Point has the offensive firepower to win a game or two in March, but if you are a skeptic, your doubts are not unwarranted.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: High Point has one of the most potent offensive systems in all of college basketball. Alan Huss has put together a roster of players that, frankly, should be at a higher level. It is loaded with transfers who have moved down from the high-major level or turned down better offers. The Panthers are balanced and deep, and they have a five-man who can match up with any Power 5 center and enough guard talent that can keep them in any game. Think about this: They erased a 15-point deficit in the second half of the Big South title game, and their bench was responsible for a full nine-minute stretch during that run. They are a top-25 offense, and some opponent will learn that fact the hard way in the Dance.
Weaknesses: There are two concerns with this group. For starters, it is not a great defensive team by the numbers. It led the Big South in defensive efficiency, but that was good for ranking outside the top 200 nationally. If you’re giving up 100 points to UNC Asheville, what happens when you play a high-major opponent? The other concern is what happens when High Point plays comparable talent. It can overwhelm teams with size, length and athleticism in the Big South, and there’s a reason why its high-major transfers left their programs. Also, the Panthers didn’t play a single high-major team this season. So it is fair to wonder what will happen when they get tested.
Outlook: Kezza Giffa and D’Maurian Williams make for a really dangerous one-two perimeter punch. Bobby Pettiford was a promising freshman at Kansas once upon a time. Juslin Bodo Bodo dunks everything around the rim. And Kimani Hamilton, like Giffa, is a first-team all-league player. There are weapons up and down the roster, but the same thing was said last year about McNeese State, which got absolutely obliterated in the first round by Gonzaga. High Point has the offensive firepower to win a game or two in March, but if you are a skeptic, your doubts are not unwarranted.
—Rob Dauster
What to know: This is the most dangerous mid-major team in the NCAA Tournament field.
Record: 29-5 (14-2 Big South)
Coach: Alan Huss (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kezza Giffa (First Team All-Big South)
Sweet 16 projected chance
6.3%
Final Four projected chance
0.3%
Outlook: Everyone remembers the famous Bryce Drew shot that sunk Ole Miss during his playing days at Valparaiso. Fans of the Madness have it stained on the cerebral cortex. GCU’s current head honcho is hoping for another memorable March moment. His ‘Lopes are one of the field’s stiffest defensive squads. On the season, they rank No. 20 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, conceding a mere 46.4 percent on 2s and 32.1 percent on 3s. They also thrive on unforced errors. Over 20 percent of opponent possessions resulted in a turnover. Trotting out a sizable frontcourt for a mid-major at 6-foot-7 (Tyon Grant-Foster), 6-foot-8 (JaKobe Coles) and 6-foot-10 (Duke Brennan), the Phoenix area reps can hang with high majors on the glass. Self-inflicted wounds, however, hindered it often and it will need to ramp up its arc execution (31.5 3-point percentage), but GCU’s stupendous defense and consistent free-throw conversions has it in play to potentially bloody brackets.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Everyone remembers the famous Bryce Drew shot that sunk Ole Miss during his playing days at Valparaiso. Fans of the Madness have it stained on the cerebral cortex. GCU’s current head honcho is hoping for another memorable March moment. His ‘Lopes are one of the field’s stiffest defensive squads. On the season, they rank No. 20 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, conceding a mere 46.4 percent on 2s and 32.1 percent on 3s. They also thrive on unforced errors. Over 20 percent of opponent possessions resulted in a turnover. Trotting out a sizable frontcourt for a mid-major at 6-foot-7 (Tyon Grant-Foster), 6-foot-8 (JaKobe Coles) and 6-foot-10 (Duke Brennan), the Phoenix area reps can hang with high majors on the glass. Self-inflicted wounds, however, hindered it often and it will need to ramp up its arc execution (31.5 3-point percentage), but GCU’s stupendous defense and consistent free-throw conversions has it in play to potentially bloody brackets.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Everyone remembers the famous Bryce Drew shot that sunk Ole Miss during his playing days at Valparaiso. Fans of the Madness have it stained on the cerebral cortex. GCU’s current head honcho is hoping for another memorable March moment. His ‘Lopes are one of the field’s stiffest defensive squads. On the season, they rank No. 20 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, conceding a mere 46.4 percent on 2s and 32.1 percent on 3s. They also thrive on unforced errors. Over 20 percent of opponent possessions resulted in a turnover. Trotting out a sizable frontcourt for a mid-major at 6-foot-7 (Tyon Grant-Foster), 6-foot-8 (JaKobe Coles) and 6-foot-10 (Duke Brennan), the Phoenix area reps can hang with high majors on the glass. Self-inflicted wounds, however, hindered it often and it will need to ramp up its arc execution (31.5 3-point percentage), but GCU’s stupendous defense and consistent free-throw conversions has it in play to potentially bloody brackets.
—Brad Evans
Record: 26-7 (13-3 WAC)
Coach: Bryce Drew (1-6 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: JaKobe Coles (First Team All-WAC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
4.9%
Final Four projected chance
0.2%
Outlook: Lipscomb is one of the hottest teams entering the NCAA Tournament, finishing the season 11-1, including the Atlantic Sun tournament title. The Bison do a few things well. Firstly, they don’t turn the ball over. Lipscomb’s turnover percentage (14.4 percent) ranks top-20 nationally and its non-steal turnover percentage is in the top 10. The Bison don’t foul either, ranking No. 3 in the country in fewest fouls per game at 12.6. Simply put: the Bison aren’t going to beat themselves. That could be what allows Lipscomb to get an upset in the first round. It’ll probably help to have the ASUN Player of the Year in senior forward Jacob Ognacevic, who averages over 20 points and eight rebounds per game while shooting 40.2 percent on 3-pointers.
—Sam Lance
Outlook: Lipscomb is one of the hottest teams entering the NCAA Tournament, finishing the season 11-1, including the Atlantic Sun tournament title. The Bison do a few things well. Firstly, they don’t turn the ball over. Lipscomb’s turnover percentage (14.4 percent) ranks top-20 nationally and its non-steal turnover percentage is in the top 10. The Bison don’t foul either, ranking No. 3 in the country in fewest fouls per game at 12.6. Simply put: the Bison aren’t going to beat themselves. That could be what allows Lipscomb to get an upset in the first round. It’ll probably help to have the ASUN Player of the Year in senior forward Jacob Ognacevic, who averages over 20 points and eight rebounds per game while shooting 40.2 percent on 3-pointers.
—Sam Lance
Outlook: Lipscomb is one of the hottest teams entering the NCAA Tournament, finishing the season 11-1, including the Atlantic Sun tournament title. The Bison do a few things well. Firstly, they don’t turn the ball over. Lipscomb’s turnover percentage (14.4 percent) ranks top-20 nationally and its non-steal turnover percentage is in the top 10. The Bison don’t foul either, ranking No. 3 in the country in fewest fouls per game at 12.6. Simply put: the Bison aren’t going to beat themselves. That could be what allows Lipscomb to get an upset in the first round. It’ll probably help to have the ASUN Player of the Year in senior forward Jacob Ognacevic, who averages over 20 points and eight rebounds per game while shooting 40.2 percent on 3-pointers.
—Sam Lance
Record: 25-9 (14-4 ASUN)
Coach: Lennie Acuff (First Tournament)
Player to watch: Jacob Ognacevic (ASUN Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
3.0%
Final Four projected chance
0.1%
Outlook: Consuming loaded potatoes in Starch Madness, the Grizzlies ousted frontrunner Northern Colorado to punch their ticket. At 14-1 since Jan. 20, the sloth from Missoula is one of the hottest teams entering March’s main event — no matter league affiliation. Money Williams and associates can seriously pile up the points. Over their last 10 games, they ranked No. 6 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense, netting a scorching 61 percent from inside the arc and 38.3 percent outside of it. Not complete slouches on defense during the stretch, they conceded only 30.7 percent from 3. Montana was bear-sprayed by fellow tourney participants Tennessee, Oregon and Utah State in non-conference action. Its perimeter ability make DeCulre’s team an interesting Cinederlla candidate. However, its lack of height, resulting questionable glass performance and shoddy interior defense should temper upset beliefs.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Consuming loaded potatoes in Starch Madness, the Grizzlies ousted frontrunner Northern Colorado to punch their ticket. At 14-1 since Jan. 20, the sloth from Missoula is one of the hottest teams entering March’s main event — no matter league affiliation. Money Williams and associates can seriously pile up the points. Over their last 10 games, they ranked No. 6 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense, netting a scorching 61 percent from inside the arc and 38.3 percent outside of it. Not complete slouches on defense during the stretch, they conceded only 30.7 percent from 3. Montana was bear-sprayed by fellow tourney participants Tennessee, Oregon and Utah State in non-conference action. Its perimeter ability make DeCulre’s team an interesting Cinederlla candidate. However, its lack of height, resulting questionable glass performance and shoddy interior defense should temper upset beliefs.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Consuming loaded potatoes in Starch Madness, the Grizzlies ousted frontrunner Northern Colorado to punch their ticket. At 14-1 since Jan. 20, the sloth from Missoula is one of the hottest teams entering March’s main event — no matter league affiliation. Money Williams and associates can seriously pile up the points. Over their last 10 games, they ranked No. 6 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense, netting a scorching 61 percent from inside the arc and 38.3 percent outside of it. Not complete slouches on defense during the stretch, they conceded only 30.7 percent from 3. Montana was bear-sprayed by fellow tourney participants Tennessee, Oregon and Utah State in non-conference action. Its perimeter ability make DeCulre’s team an interesting Cinederlla candidate. However, its lack of height, resulting questionable glass performance and shoddy interior defense should temper upset beliefs.
—Brad Evans
Record: 25-9 (15-3 Big Sky)
Coach: Travis DeCulre (0-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Joe Pridgen (First Team All-Big Sky)
Sweet 16 projected chance
1.1%
Final Four projected chance
0.03%
Outlook: Take Achilles’ advice, “He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.” Equipped with the necessary bravery, the Trojans are a viable Cinderella candidate. Over their final dozen games, Troy ranked a laudable No. 83 in overall efficiency according to BartTorvik. Deep, cohesive and menaces on the offensive glass where it generates a second chance on 38.6 percent of its possessions, Troy punishes teams weak in the post. Additionally, it’s rather unyielding defensively. In games played since Feb. 1, it slotted No. 6 nationally in 2-point percentage defense, giving up a mere 43.6 percent. Though 3-heavy, Cross’ club only converted 29.9 percent from the arc. However, if Tayton Conerway, Myles Rigsby and Thomas Dowd catch fire along the perimeter, they’ll likely don a glass slipper.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Take Achilles’ advice, “He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.” Equipped with the necessary bravery, the Trojans are a viable Cinderella candidate. Over their final dozen games, Troy ranked a laudable No. 83 in overall efficiency according to BartTorvik. Deep, cohesive and menaces on the offensive glass where it generates a second chance on 38.6 percent of its possessions, Troy punishes teams weak in the post. Additionally, it’s rather unyielding defensively. In games played since Feb. 1, it slotted No. 6 nationally in 2-point percentage defense, giving up a mere 43.6 percent. Though 3-heavy, Cross’ club only converted 29.9 percent from the arc. However, if Tayton Conerway, Myles Rigsby and Thomas Dowd catch fire along the perimeter, they’ll likely don a glass slipper.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Take Achilles’ advice, “He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.” Equipped with the necessary bravery, the Trojans are a viable Cinderella candidate. Over their final dozen games, Troy ranked a laudable No. 83 in overall efficiency according to BartTorvik. Deep, cohesive and menaces on the offensive glass where it generates a second chance on 38.6 percent of its possessions, Troy punishes teams weak in the post. Additionally, it’s rather unyielding defensively. In games played since Feb. 1, it slotted No. 6 nationally in 2-point percentage defense, giving up a mere 43.6 percent. Though 3-heavy, Cross’ club only converted 29.9 percent from the arc. However, if Tayton Conerway, Myles Rigsby and Thomas Dowd catch fire along the perimeter, they’ll likely don a glass slipper.
—Brad Evans
Record: 23-10 (13-5 Sun Belt)
Coach: Scott Cross (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tayton Conerway (Sun Belt Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
5.2%
Final Four projected chance
0.2%
Outlook: Third time’s the charm for Takayo Siddle, who won at least 20 games for the fourth straight season. After losing in the CAA title game in 2022 and 2023, he’s broken through and firmly planted himself as one of the hottest names in this year’s coaching carousel. The star of this iteration of the Seahawks is point guard Donovan Newby. In his third season in Wilmington, he took a leap this year, as did Khamari McGriff, who moved into the starting lineup when Josh Corbin went down. But the beauty of this team is their depth and next-man-up mentality. Eight guys play more than 19 minutes — McGriff, the team’s second-leading scorer, plays the fewest minutes of any rotation player. Sean Moore was a part of the FDU team that beat Purdue. Bo Montgomery is averaging 15.5 points in four games in March. Noah Ross had 14 in the win over Delaware in the CAA title game. UNCW runs good stuff offensively. They get to the offensive glass and they have multiple veterans that can beat you. There is one concern with this group, however: Much of the reason they have a top-85 offense is because of their work in the paint and on the offensive glass. Can that translate against elite high-major competition?
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Third time’s the charm for Takayo Siddle, who won at least 20 games for the fourth straight season. After losing in the CAA title game in 2022 and 2023, he’s broken through and firmly planted himself as one of the hottest names in this year’s coaching carousel. The star of this iteration of the Seahawks is point guard Donovan Newby. In his third season in Wilmington, he took a leap this year, as did Khamari McGriff, who moved into the starting lineup when Josh Corbin went down. But the beauty of this team is their depth and next-man-up mentality. Eight guys play more than 19 minutes — McGriff, the team’s second-leading scorer, plays the fewest minutes of any rotation player. Sean Moore was a part of the FDU team that beat Purdue. Bo Montgomery is averaging 15.5 points in four games in March. Noah Ross had 14 in the win over Delaware in the CAA title game. UNCW runs good stuff offensively. They get to the offensive glass and they have multiple veterans that can beat you. There is one concern with this group, however: Much of the reason they have a top-85 offense is because of their work in the paint and on the offensive glass. Can that translate against elite high-major competition?
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Third time’s the charm for Takayo Siddle, who won at least 20 games for the fourth straight season. After losing in the CAA title game in 2022 and 2023, he’s broken through and firmly planted himself as one of the hottest names in this year’s coaching carousel. The star of this iteration of the Seahawks is point guard Donovan Newby. In his third season in Wilmington, he took a leap this year, as did Khamari McGriff, who moved into the starting lineup when Josh Corbin went down. But the beauty of this team is their depth and next-man-up mentality. Eight guys play more than 19 minutes — McGriff, the team’s second-leading scorer, plays the fewest minutes of any rotation player. Sean Moore was a part of the FDU team that beat Purdue. Bo Montgomery is averaging 15.5 points in four games in March. Noah Ross had 14 in the win over Delaware in the CAA title game. UNCW runs good stuff offensively. They get to the offensive glass and they have multiple veterans that can beat you. There is one concern with this group, however: Much of the reason they have a top-85 offense is because of their work in the paint and on the offensive glass. Can that translate against elite high-major competition?
—Rob Dauster
Record: 27-7 (14-4 CAA)
Coach: Takayo Siddle (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Donovan Newby (Second Team All-CAA)
Sweet 16 projected chance
2.2%
Final Four projected chance
0.09%
Outlook: Bryant is a scary team to face in the first round of the tournament, as it has as much high-major talent as any of the auto-bids this side of High Point. It starts with Earl Timberlake, a physical, 6-foot-6 lefty who has figured out how to shoot and is a former top 30 recruit in his fifth season of college basketball. Rafeal Pinzon began his career at St. John’s and, at 6-foot-6, is one of the more dangerous shooters you’ll find in the dance. Pinzon averaged 18.7 points and shot 39.1 percent from 3-point range on more than seven attempts per game. Barry Evans is an upperclassmen who should be playing at a level closer to the Atlantic 10. Connor Withers is a 6-foot-8 shooter in his sixth season. Keyshawn Mitchell is 6-foot-11 with high-major tools. The Bulldogs get out and run in transition, they have weapons that can get to the rim and they attack the offensive glass. Combine that with a pair of players that have spent significant time at the high-major level, both of whom can take over and win a game on their own, and this is a team to take very seriously.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Bryant is a scary team to face in the first round of the tournament, as it has as much high-major talent as any of the auto-bids this side of High Point. It starts with Earl Timberlake, a physical, 6-foot-6 lefty who has figured out how to shoot and is a former top 30 recruit in his fifth season of college basketball. Rafeal Pinzon began his career at St. John’s and, at 6-foot-6, is one of the more dangerous shooters you’ll find in the dance. Pinzon averaged 18.7 points and shot 39.1 percent from 3-point range on more than seven attempts per game. Barry Evans is an upperclassmen who should be playing at a level closer to the Atlantic 10. Connor Withers is a 6-foot-8 shooter in his sixth season. Keyshawn Mitchell is 6-foot-11 with high-major tools. The Bulldogs get out and run in transition, they have weapons that can get to the rim and they attack the offensive glass. Combine that with a pair of players that have spent significant time at the high-major level, both of whom can take over and win a game on their own, and this is a team to take very seriously.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Bryant is a scary team to face in the first round of the tournament, as it has as much high-major talent as any of the auto-bids this side of High Point. It starts with Earl Timberlake, a physical, 6-foot-6 lefty who has figured out how to shoot and is a former top 30 recruit in his fifth season of college basketball. Rafeal Pinzon began his career at St. John’s and, at 6-foot-6, is one of the more dangerous shooters you’ll find in the dance. Pinzon averaged 18.7 points and shot 39.1 percent from 3-point range on more than seven attempts per game. Barry Evans is an upperclassmen who should be playing at a level closer to the Atlantic 10. Connor Withers is a 6-foot-8 shooter in his sixth season. Keyshawn Mitchell is 6-foot-11 with high-major tools. The Bulldogs get out and run in transition, they have weapons that can get to the rim and they attack the offensive glass. Combine that with a pair of players that have spent significant time at the high-major level, both of whom can take over and win a game on their own, and this is a team to take very seriously.
—Rob Dauster
Record: 23-11 (14-2 America East)
Coach: Phil Martelli Jr. (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Earl Timberlake (America East Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
1.0%
Final Four projected chance
0.02%
Outlook: It has not been an easy adjustment for Andy Toole’s Robert Morris program as they moved from the NEC to the Horizon League in the middle of the pandemic. This is Year 5 for the Colonials in their new league, and this is the first time they finished with a winning record — either overall or in the league — and it’s the first time Toole, who was one of the hottest names in coaching a decade ago, has won a regular season title since 2014. This season flipped back in late December, when Kam Woods returned to the starting lineup after getting injured. He’s a volume scorer and tough-shot maker that averaged 19.7 points in Bobby Mo’s Horizon League tournament run. But the guy that makes this team tick is sophomore Alvaro Folgueiras, a 6-foot-9 Spaniard that is one of the most well-rounded bigs in college basketball. He averages nearly a double-double along with 3.1 assists and more than a steal and a block per game, all while making 42 percent of his 3-pointers on more than three attempts per game. Robert Morris can be turnover prone at times, but they have a game-changing point guard, a skilled play-maker at the five and they can guard. There’s a reason this team is 16-1 since Jan. 9.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: It has not been an easy adjustment for Andy Toole’s Robert Morris program as they moved from the NEC to the Horizon League in the middle of the pandemic. This is Year 5 for the Colonials in their new league, and this is the first time they finished with a winning record — either overall or in the league — and it’s the first time Toole, who was one of the hottest names in coaching a decade ago, has won a regular season title since 2014. This season flipped back in late December, when Kam Woods returned to the starting lineup after getting injured. He’s a volume scorer and tough-shot maker that averaged 19.7 points in Bobby Mo’s Horizon League tournament run. But the guy that makes this team tick is sophomore Alvaro Folgueiras, a 6-foot-9 Spaniard that is one of the most well-rounded bigs in college basketball. He averages nearly a double-double along with 3.1 assists and more than a steal and a block per game, all while making 42 percent of his 3-pointers on more than three attempts per game. Robert Morris can be turnover prone at times, but they have a game-changing point guard, a skilled play-maker at the five and they can guard. There’s a reason this team is 16-1 since Jan. 9.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: It has not been an easy adjustment for Andy Toole’s Robert Morris program as they moved from the NEC to the Horizon League in the middle of the pandemic. This is Year 5 for the Colonials in their new league, and this is the first time they finished with a winning record — either overall or in the league — and it’s the first time Toole, who was one of the hottest names in coaching a decade ago, has won a regular season title since 2014. This season flipped back in late December, when Kam Woods returned to the starting lineup after getting injured. He’s a volume scorer and tough-shot maker that averaged 19.7 points in Bobby Mo’s Horizon League tournament run. But the guy that makes this team tick is sophomore Alvaro Folgueiras, a 6-foot-9 Spaniard that is one of the most well-rounded bigs in college basketball. He averages nearly a double-double along with 3.1 assists and more than a steal and a block per game, all while making 42 percent of his 3-pointers on more than three attempts per game. Robert Morris can be turnover prone at times, but they have a game-changing point guard, a skilled play-maker at the five and they can guard. There’s a reason this team is 16-1 since Jan. 9.
—Rob Dauster
Record: 26-8 (15-5 Horizon)
Coach: Andy Toole (1-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Alvaro Folgueiras (Horizon League Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
1.0%
Final Four projected chance
0.03%
Outlook: The Terriers won the SoCon tournament as the No. 6 seed, but don’t be fooled into thinking this team isn’t capable. The SoCon is one of the better true mid-major leagues, and Wofford won 11 of its last 13 games away from home. That includes wins at Saint Louis, ETSU and Furman. It starts with the veteran inside-out duo of Corey Tripp and Kyler Filewich. Tripp is the star, a three-year starter that came back for a chance to lead Wofford to the promised land in his senior season. Filewich took a leap this year, and at 6-foot-9, 250 pounds, he’s a playmaking five that allows Wofford’s spread offense to thrive. There’s a reason they have a top-70 offense according to KenPom. The Terriers shoot a ton of 3s, and on the nights where the Baileys, Justin and Dillon (ironically not related), are making them, Dwight Perry’s crew can be a tough out. Teams with good guard play that control tempo and make 3s are the ones that make magic happen this month.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: The Terriers won the SoCon tournament as the No. 6 seed, but don’t be fooled into thinking this team isn’t capable. The SoCon is one of the better true mid-major leagues, and Wofford won 11 of its last 13 games away from home. That includes wins at Saint Louis, ETSU and Furman. It starts with the veteran inside-out duo of Corey Tripp and Kyler Filewich. Tripp is the star, a three-year starter that came back for a chance to lead Wofford to the promised land in his senior season. Filewich took a leap this year, and at 6-foot-9, 250 pounds, he’s a playmaking five that allows Wofford’s spread offense to thrive. There’s a reason they have a top-70 offense according to KenPom. The Terriers shoot a ton of 3s, and on the nights where the Baileys, Justin and Dillon (ironically not related), are making them, Dwight Perry’s crew can be a tough out. Teams with good guard play that control tempo and make 3s are the ones that make magic happen this month.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: The Terriers won the SoCon tournament as the No. 6 seed, but don’t be fooled into thinking this team isn’t capable. The SoCon is one of the better true mid-major leagues, and Wofford won 11 of its last 13 games away from home. That includes wins at Saint Louis, ETSU and Furman. It starts with the veteran inside-out duo of Corey Tripp and Kyler Filewich. Tripp is the star, a three-year starter that came back for a chance to lead Wofford to the promised land in his senior season. Filewich took a leap this year, and at 6-foot-9, 250 pounds, he’s a playmaking five that allows Wofford’s spread offense to thrive. There’s a reason they have a top-70 offense according to KenPom. The Terriers shoot a ton of 3s, and on the nights where the Baileys, Justin and Dillon (ironically not related), are making them, Dwight Perry’s crew can be a tough out. Teams with good guard play that control tempo and make 3s are the ones that make magic happen this month.
—Rob Dauster
Record: 19-15 (10-8 SoCon)
Coach: Dwight Perry (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Corey Tripp (Second Team All-SoCon)
Sweet 16 projected chance
1.2%
Final Four projected chance
0.04%
Outlook: Surely Peyton Manning’s favorite team next to Tennessee, Omaha punched its BIg Dance ticket for the first time in program history. As witnessed in their bid-clinching victory over South Dakota — they annihilated the Coyotes 100-75 — JJ White and cohorts can seriously scorch the nets. If stroking the rock smoothly, the Summit representatives can hang. They enter the March showcase in the top 100 in several offensive categories, including points per possession scored (1.116) and 3-point percentage (36.7 percent). Also noteworthy, the Mavericks feature three players 6-foot-8 or taller in the starting lineup. Unlike many mid-majors, they possess the competitive size, versatility and arc accuracy to possibly scare a high seed. Yes, given the Mavs’ 290-plus rank in effective field-goal percentage defense, guarding is optional. Still, it’s hard to completely write off the spread covering machine (23-9 ATS this year).
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Surely Peyton Manning’s favorite team next to Tennessee, Omaha punched its BIg Dance ticket for the first time in program history. As witnessed in their bid-clinching victory over South Dakota — they annihilated the Coyotes 100-75 — JJ White and cohorts can seriously scorch the nets. If stroking the rock smoothly, the Summit representatives can hang. They enter the March showcase in the top 100 in several offensive categories, including points per possession scored (1.116) and 3-point percentage (36.7 percent). Also noteworthy, the Mavericks feature three players 6-foot-8 or taller in the starting lineup. Unlike many mid-majors, they possess the competitive size, versatility and arc accuracy to possibly scare a high seed. Yes, given the Mavs’ 290-plus rank in effective field-goal percentage defense, guarding is optional. Still, it’s hard to completely write off the spread covering machine (23-9 ATS this year).
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Surely Peyton Manning’s favorite team next to Tennessee, Omaha punched its BIg Dance ticket for the first time in program history. As witnessed in their bid-clinching victory over South Dakota — they annihilated the Coyotes 100-75 — JJ White and cohorts can seriously scorch the nets. If stroking the rock smoothly, the Summit representatives can hang. They enter the March showcase in the top 100 in several offensive categories, including points per possession scored (1.116) and 3-point percentage (36.7 percent). Also noteworthy, the Mavericks feature three players 6-foot-8 or taller in the starting lineup. Unlike many mid-majors, they possess the competitive size, versatility and arc accuracy to possibly scare a high seed. Yes, given the Mavs’ 290-plus rank in effective field-goal percentage defense, guarding is optional. Still, it’s hard to completely write off the spread covering machine (23-9 ATS this year).
—Brad Evans
Record: 22-12 (13-3 Summit)
Coach: Chris Crutchfield (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Marquel Sutton (Summit League Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
1.0%
Final Four projected chance
0.02%
Outlook: The Hornets are dancing for the first time since 2011 after winning the SWAC tournament, and they have won six straight entering the Big Dance. Hines has been on a tear to get them to this point, averaging 14.7 points per game over Alabama State’s six-game winning streak. When he goes, the Hornets go. They are 5-1 when the senior guard scores 20-plus points. Hines leads a trio of guards, including Amarr Knox and TJ Madlock, who are the only players to average double-figure scoring this season. Those three have accounted for about 55 percent of the Hornets’ scoring output. The good thing about being guard-heavy? Alabama State doesn’t beat themselves. Its turnover percentage of 13.2 percent ranks No. 5 in the entire country. Perhaps that could allow the Hornets to an NCAA Tournament win in the First Four.
—Sam Lance
Outlook: The Hornets are dancing for the first time since 2011 after winning the SWAC tournament, and they have won six straight entering the Big Dance. Hines has been on a tear to get them to this point, averaging 14.7 points per game over Alabama State’s six-game winning streak. When he goes, the Hornets go. They are 5-1 when the senior guard scores 20-plus points. Hines leads a trio of guards, including Amarr Knox and TJ Madlock, who are the only players to average double-figure scoring this season. Those three have accounted for about 55 percent of the Hornets’ scoring output. The good thing about being guard-heavy? Alabama State doesn’t beat themselves. Its turnover percentage of 13.2 percent ranks No. 5 in the entire country. Perhaps that could allow the Hornets to an NCAA Tournament win in the First Four.
—Sam Lance
Outlook: The Hornets are dancing for the first time since 2011 after winning the SWAC tournament, and they have won six straight entering the Big Dance. Hines has been on a tear to get them to this point, averaging 14.7 points per game over Alabama State’s six-game winning streak. When he goes, the Hornets go. They are 5-1 when the senior guard scores 20-plus points. Hines leads a trio of guards, including Amarr Knox and TJ Madlock, who are the only players to average double-figure scoring this season. Those three have accounted for about 55 percent of the Hornets’ scoring output. The good thing about being guard-heavy? Alabama State doesn’t beat themselves. Its turnover percentage of 13.2 percent ranks No. 5 in the entire country. Perhaps that could allow the Hornets to an NCAA Tournament win in the First Four.
—Sam Lance
Record: 19-15 (12-6 SWAC)
Coach: Tony Madlock (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: CJ Hines (SWAC tournament MVP)
Sweet 16 projected chance
0.03%
Final Four projected chance
0.00%
Outlook: Rob Krimmel is one of the better stories of this year’s March Madness. He’s been at Saint Francis since 1996: four seasons as a player, 12 seasons as an assistant and the last 13 as the head coach. For the first time in those 29 years, he will be heading to the NCAA Tournament. That’s a wonderful story and the kind of thing that he will remember forever, but this is a group that is going to have their work cut out for them. The Red Flash are under .500 this season. On Feb. 15, they were sitting at 10-17 overall and 5-8 in the NEC, a game ahead of last place. They closed the regular season with three straight OT wins and in the NEC tournament knocked off Wagner, LIU and Central Connecticut, the latter two on the road, to get to the Big Dance. This is a team that ranks sub-300 overall on KenPom. The closest they kept it with a high-major program this season was a 17-point loss at Georgetown. They lost 111-57 at Maryland in December. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, because it won’t last long.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Rob Krimmel is one of the better stories of this year’s March Madness. He’s been at Saint Francis since 1996: four seasons as a player, 12 seasons as an assistant and the last 13 as the head coach. For the first time in those 29 years, he will be heading to the NCAA Tournament. That’s a wonderful story and the kind of thing that he will remember forever, but this is a group that is going to have their work cut out for them. The Red Flash are under .500 this season. On Feb. 15, they were sitting at 10-17 overall and 5-8 in the NEC, a game ahead of last place. They closed the regular season with three straight OT wins and in the NEC tournament knocked off Wagner, LIU and Central Connecticut, the latter two on the road, to get to the Big Dance. This is a team that ranks sub-300 overall on KenPom. The closest they kept it with a high-major program this season was a 17-point loss at Georgetown. They lost 111-57 at Maryland in December. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, because it won’t last long.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: Rob Krimmel is one of the better stories of this year’s March Madness. He’s been at Saint Francis since 1996: four seasons as a player, 12 seasons as an assistant and the last 13 as the head coach. For the first time in those 29 years, he will be heading to the NCAA Tournament. That’s a wonderful story and the kind of thing that he will remember forever, but this is a group that is going to have their work cut out for them. The Red Flash are under .500 this season. On Feb. 15, they were sitting at 10-17 overall and 5-8 in the NEC, a game ahead of last place. They closed the regular season with three straight OT wins and in the NEC tournament knocked off Wagner, LIU and Central Connecticut, the latter two on the road, to get to the Big Dance. This is a team that ranks sub-300 overall on KenPom. The closest they kept it with a high-major program this season was a 17-point loss at Georgetown. They lost 111-57 at Maryland in December. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, because it won’t last long.
—Rob Dauster
Record: 16-17 (8-8 NEC)
Coach: Rob Krimmel (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Riley Parker (First Team All-NEC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
0.02%
Final Four projected chance
0.00%
Outlook: For the first time in 11 years and just the fourth time in the history of the program as a member of the Division I ranks, American is heading to the NCAA Tournament. In just his second year at the helm of the program, Duane Simpkins took the Eagles dancing in large part due to his ability to keep players on his roster. Matt Rogers, the leading scorer and one of the best mid-major bigs in the country, played all five years at American despite having plenty of transfer offers. The same with starting point guard Eli Stephens and wing Colin Smalls. They stuck around despite the fact that Simpkins took over midway through their careers. Stories like this are why we love college basketball, but it is not going to be easy for them to pull off an upset in the first round. There is a significant length and athleticism deficit, but American’s style of play is something that should be a benefit. The Eagles grind the pace down to a halt, ignore the offensive glass to prevent transition opportunities and are a disciplined, well-coached defense built around positioning and cleaning the glass. Combine that with the fact that they shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and shoot them well, and crazier things have happened.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: For the first time in 11 years and just the fourth time in the history of the program as a member of the Division I ranks, American is heading to the NCAA Tournament. In just his second year at the helm of the program, Duane Simpkins took the Eagles dancing in large part due to his ability to keep players on his roster. Matt Rogers, the leading scorer and one of the best mid-major bigs in the country, played all five years at American despite having plenty of transfer offers. The same with starting point guard Eli Stephens and wing Colin Smalls. They stuck around despite the fact that Simpkins took over midway through their careers. Stories like this are why we love college basketball, but it is not going to be easy for them to pull off an upset in the first round. There is a significant length and athleticism deficit, but American’s style of play is something that should be a benefit. The Eagles grind the pace down to a halt, ignore the offensive glass to prevent transition opportunities and are a disciplined, well-coached defense built around positioning and cleaning the glass. Combine that with the fact that they shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and shoot them well, and crazier things have happened.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: For the first time in 11 years and just the fourth time in the history of the program as a member of the Division I ranks, American is heading to the NCAA Tournament. In just his second year at the helm of the program, Duane Simpkins took the Eagles dancing in large part due to his ability to keep players on his roster. Matt Rogers, the leading scorer and one of the best mid-major bigs in the country, played all five years at American despite having plenty of transfer offers. The same with starting point guard Eli Stephens and wing Colin Smalls. They stuck around despite the fact that Simpkins took over midway through their careers. Stories like this are why we love college basketball, but it is not going to be easy for them to pull off an upset in the first round. There is a significant length and athleticism deficit, but American’s style of play is something that should be a benefit. The Eagles grind the pace down to a halt, ignore the offensive glass to prevent transition opportunities and are a disciplined, well-coached defense built around positioning and cleaning the glass. Combine that with the fact that they shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and shoot them well, and crazier things have happened.
—Rob Dauster
Record: 22-12 (13-5 Patriot)
Coach: Duane Simpkins (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Matt Rogers (First Team All-Patriot League)
Sweet 16 projected chance
0.1%
Final Four projected chance
0.00%
Outlook: The Mountaineers were something of a surprising winner of the MAAC automatic bid, picking off an Iona team that beat regular season champion Quinnipiac in the semifinals. After struggling early on this season, The Mount got hot at the right time, winning 11 of the last 14 games after sitting at just 4-5 in the league in late January. The Mountaineers win with their defense. They don’t force a ton of turnovers, but they limit dribble penetration and force opponents into taking tough jumpers. That works well against teams with a similar size. That doesn’t work quite as well when a mid-major is going up against a high-major. If the Mountaineers are going to pull off an upset, it will come down to the play of Dallas Hobbs at the point. They rank 359th out of 364 teams in turnover rate. That will not work in March.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: The Mountaineers were something of a surprising winner of the MAAC automatic bid, picking off an Iona team that beat regular season champion Quinnipiac in the semifinals. After struggling early on this season, The Mount got hot at the right time, winning 11 of the last 14 games after sitting at just 4-5 in the league in late January. The Mountaineers win with their defense. They don’t force a ton of turnovers, but they limit dribble penetration and force opponents into taking tough jumpers. That works well against teams with a similar size. That doesn’t work quite as well when a mid-major is going up against a high-major. If the Mountaineers are going to pull off an upset, it will come down to the play of Dallas Hobbs at the point. They rank 359th out of 364 teams in turnover rate. That will not work in March.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: The Mountaineers were something of a surprising winner of the MAAC automatic bid, picking off an Iona team that beat regular season champion Quinnipiac in the semifinals. After struggling early on this season, The Mount got hot at the right time, winning 11 of the last 14 games after sitting at just 4-5 in the league in late January. The Mountaineers win with their defense. They don’t force a ton of turnovers, but they limit dribble penetration and force opponents into taking tough jumpers. That works well against teams with a similar size. That doesn’t work quite as well when a mid-major is going up against a high-major. If the Mountaineers are going to pull off an upset, it will come down to the play of Dallas Hobbs at the point. They rank 359th out of 364 teams in turnover rate. That will not work in March.
—Rob Dauster
Record: 22-12 (12-8 MAAC)
Coach: Donny Lind (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Dola Adebayo (Second Team All-MAAC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
0.03%
Final Four projected chance
0.00%
Outlook: The Cougars shake their tails in the NCAA Tournament field for the first time in school history. Brian Barone’s bunch relies heavily on its stout defense. On the season, they’re an impressive No. 35 nationally in effective field-goal percentage D, allowing only 46.3 percent from 2 and 33.3 percent from 2. Contesting shots is their game. Putting the ball through the basket, however, is a chore. Averaging a paltry 1.024 points per possession, SIUE is worse than No. 250 in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also leave points at the line, shooting a wretched 67.6 percent on freebies. Way back in November, the Cougars only briefly challenged Illinois and Indiana, eventually losing by 32 and 19 points respectively. Ray’Sean Taylor can rain buckets — he scored 30-plus in three games this year — but the senior guard can’t do it alone. This No. 16 seed is no Fairleigh Dickinson.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: The Cougars shake their tails in the NCAA Tournament field for the first time in school history. Brian Barone’s bunch relies heavily on its stout defense. On the season, they’re an impressive No. 35 nationally in effective field-goal percentage D, allowing only 46.3 percent from 2 and 33.3 percent from 2. Contesting shots is their game. Putting the ball through the basket, however, is a chore. Averaging a paltry 1.024 points per possession, SIUE is worse than No. 250 in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also leave points at the line, shooting a wretched 67.6 percent on freebies. Way back in November, the Cougars only briefly challenged Illinois and Indiana, eventually losing by 32 and 19 points respectively. Ray’Sean Taylor can rain buckets — he scored 30-plus in three games this year — but the senior guard can’t do it alone. This No. 16 seed is no Fairleigh Dickinson.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: The Cougars shake their tails in the NCAA Tournament field for the first time in school history. Brian Barone’s bunch relies heavily on its stout defense. On the season, they’re an impressive No. 35 nationally in effective field-goal percentage D, allowing only 46.3 percent from 2 and 33.3 percent from 2. Contesting shots is their game. Putting the ball through the basket, however, is a chore. Averaging a paltry 1.024 points per possession, SIUE is worse than No. 250 in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also leave points at the line, shooting a wretched 67.6 percent on freebies. Way back in November, the Cougars only briefly challenged Illinois and Indiana, eventually losing by 32 and 19 points respectively. Ray’Sean Taylor can rain buckets — he scored 30-plus in three games this year — but the senior guard can’t do it alone. This No. 16 seed is no Fairleigh Dickinson.
—Brad Evans
Record: 22-11 (13-7 OVC)
Coach: Brian Barone (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ray’Sean Taylor (OVC Player of the Year)
Sweet 16 projected chance
0.1%
Final Four projected chance
0.00%
Outlook: I’ll say it because no one else will: Robert Jones is the most underrated coach in the mid-major ranks. He has won either the MEAC regular season or tournament title in five of the last seven years. This is his third trip to the NCAA Tournament, an event the Spartans have had success in previously — they won as a 15-seed in 2012. With this group it starts in the backcourt. Brian Moore Jr. is one of the more dynamic mid-major guards while Christian Ings is a 25-year-old sixth-year senior that is making his second trip to the dance. Those two are dangerous. The problem is that the Spartans struggle in three key areas: They can’t shoot 3s, they turn the ball over too much and they get smoked on the defensive glass. Losing the possessions battle without making 3-pointers is a difficult recipe to use to pull off an upset.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: I’ll say it because no one else will: Robert Jones is the most underrated coach in the mid-major ranks. He has won either the MEAC regular season or tournament title in five of the last seven years. This is his third trip to the NCAA Tournament, an event the Spartans have had success in previously — they won as a 15-seed in 2012. With this group it starts in the backcourt. Brian Moore Jr. is one of the more dynamic mid-major guards while Christian Ings is a 25-year-old sixth-year senior that is making his second trip to the dance. Those two are dangerous. The problem is that the Spartans struggle in three key areas: They can’t shoot 3s, they turn the ball over too much and they get smoked on the defensive glass. Losing the possessions battle without making 3-pointers is a difficult recipe to use to pull off an upset.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: I’ll say it because no one else will: Robert Jones is the most underrated coach in the mid-major ranks. He has won either the MEAC regular season or tournament title in five of the last seven years. This is his third trip to the NCAA Tournament, an event the Spartans have had success in previously — they won as a 15-seed in 2012. With this group it starts in the backcourt. Brian Moore Jr. is one of the more dynamic mid-major guards while Christian Ings is a 25-year-old sixth-year senior that is making his second trip to the dance. Those two are dangerous. The problem is that the Spartans struggle in three key areas: They can’t shoot 3s, they turn the ball over too much and they get smoked on the defensive glass. Losing the possessions battle without making 3-pointers is a difficult recipe to use to pull off an upset.
—Rob Dauster
Record: 24-10 (11-3 MEAC)
Coach: Robert Jones (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Brian Moore Jr. (First Team All-MEAC)
Sweet 16 projected chance
0.2%
Final Four projected chance
0.00%
Contributors: Brad Evans is an award-winning writer, FSWA Hall of Famer, BetMGM Tonight host and founder of The Gaming Juice. Rob Dauster is co-founder of The Field of 68 and the former lead writer and managing editor of College Basketball Talk. Sam Lance is a writer for The Field of 68. Joe Lago is editor in chief for The Gaming Juice and a former deputy managing editor for The Athletic.
(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; photo credits: Jack Gorman, Michael Chang, Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
