With NCAA Tournament bracket-filling now fully underway, our upset-minded statistical model, Slingshot, is pointed toward the women’s bracket.
Before we serve up region-by-region predictions, let’s set the table with a couple of big-picture observations. First, coaches, ADs, fans and analysts have all noticed that with interest in (and revenues from) women’s basketball exploding in recent years, talent has been flooding into the game and dispersing around Division 1. There are just too many good players now for one or two programs to completely dominate the sport anymore. However you rank the contenders, something like 10 squads are plausible candidates to win the national championship this month. And the teams behind them have improved, too.
Own your bracket pool with The Athletic
Projecting the bracket | Team scouting reports | Best first-round bets | Top 10 upset picks
You’d expect this to lead to competitive Sweet 16s and Final Fours, and it has: The past couple of tournaments have been filled with incredibly exciting later-round games. But it’s not a great development — yet — for tournament underdogs, who are often the 40th to 60th-best teams in the country. It was always a tall order for a lower seed to face UConn or South Carolina. Now it’s also like running into a buzzsaw for a mid-major to meet Iowa or Louisville or Maryland or Ohio State or Oklahoma or Texas or UCLA or USC — all of whom are at least 30 points per 100 possessions stronger than average this year, according to our model — in the first or second round.
Further, remember that it takes three ingredients to brew a tournament upset. A would-be David has to employ the kind of high-risk/high-reward tactics that give long shots a puncher’s chance in a win-or-go-home scenario, like shooting lots of 3s or pressing for turnovers. That underdog must play well enough in its conference tournament to earn selection to the big tournament. And then it needs to face a Goliath with weaknesses it can exploit. We can report that steps one and two are well underway: There are teams with interesting underdog characteristics bubbling throughout the lower half of the women’s bracket. But through no fault of their own, several of our favorite long shots have landed very difficult matchups this year.
For all of us who love upsets, the bottom line for 2025 looks fairly grim. We study tournament games between teams separated by at least five seeds. In such contests this year, Slingshot sees only two matchups where there’s more than a 25 percent chance that the lower seed could win, compared with 10 on the men’s side. And there are 14 cases where the odds of an upset don’t even crack 5 percent. Greater parity is coming, but it’s taking its time to reach beyond the top 40 women’s teams.
More Bracket Breakers: Men’s Top 10 Upsets | Men’s West Region Preview | Midwest | East | South
As we discuss some of these matchups in more depth, a reminder about our particular lens: We have been using analytics to untangle the madness of the tournament for 20 years. With the help of Furman University mathematics professors John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth, we’ve developed methods to pinpoint the statistical traits of past teams that have over- and underachieved during the big dance and use those factors to evaluate the current field. This is the third year we are extending our analysis to the women’s side. Historical data is still harder to find and collect for games played by women than men, so our model isn’t yet as robust as we’d like. But Slingshot keeps improving. (For more details, here’s a full rundown of our Cinderella-hunting techniques, and here’s an intro to our work on women’s college hoops.)
So get ready for some deep prospecting! Here’s what to look for as you dig into this year’s games:
Spokane 1 Region
Best upset chance: No. 6 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 11 George Mason Patriots
Upset chance: 23.6 percent
This is a good case study of the difficulties of giant-killing on the women’s side. George Mason excels at almost everything an underdog can to build possessions and keep games close against superior opponents. They average just 69 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 246th in the nation. They grab their own missed shots (34.5 percent OR%, ranking 69th). They protect the ball and force turnovers. They don’t shoot many 3s, but hit more than 36 percent of their attempts, the 22nd-best rate in the country. They are also a terrific story, with Coach Vanessa Blair-Lewis taking the team from 3 to 27 wins and their first NCAA Tournament over the past four years.
But Florida State has the ninth-best offense in the NCAA, led by by Ta’Niya Latson, the nation’s leading scorer (24.9 points per game). And there’s a gap of more than 15 points per 100 possessions between these two teams in our basic power ratings. That’s about the same difference as between Clemson and Georgetown — a team that lost three times to DePaul and didn’t crack the NCAA bracket — on the men’s side.
Not completely crazy: No. 4 Baylor Bears vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon Lopes
Upset chance: 14 percent
Baylor seizes rebounds on more than 41 percent of its missed shots, with Darianna Littlepage-Buggs averaging a double-double (and owning the best name in the bracket). And four of the Bears’ seven losses have been to top-10 teams. There aren’t many flaws in its armor for a long shot to attack, but Baylor can be sloppy with the ball, and the Lopes, making their first tournament appearance, rate this high primarily because they force steals on 15.5 percent of opponent possessions, the fifth-highest rate in the country. One thing our model has taught us is never to completely discount the potential for a turnover-obsessed dog to irritate a goliath used to having its own way. There’s potential for disruption here.
Looking ahead: 10-seed Harvard has been one of our favorite underdogs to follow all season. Led by Harmoni Turner, who just obliterated the Ivy tournament scoring record, the Crimson shoot 3s and generate turnovers. Now they face Michigan State, who’s rather dramatically under-seeded at No. 7. Whoever emerges will have a solid chance to knock off No. 2 North Carolina State in the next round. With all due respect to the Wolfpack, who have followed up last year’s Final Four run with another terrific season, Slingshot sees them as the fourth-best team in this region.
Birmingham 2 Region
Best upset chance: No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 11 Columbia Lions*
Upset chance: 21.6 percent
*If Columbia beats No. 11 Washington
After watching their first player ever (Abbey Hsu) graduate to the WNBA, Columbia kept rolling this year with emerging stars like Kitty Henderson (13.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game). And once again, they put together an unusual and extremely impressive statistical profile. The Lions rank third in the nation with a 43.3 percent OR% and 27th in forcing steals while taking 31.7 percent of their shots from behind the arc (ranking 98th). They know how to maximize both the quantity and value of their possessions. But they lost the Ivy League title to Harvard and now have to play their way into the first round. And if they get there, they will face the pressure of No. 6 seed West Virginia, who builds possession advantages more relentlessly than Columbia. All we can say is: There oughta be a law against making two of Slingshot’s most profound favorites play each other this early.
Not completely crazy: No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 13 Norfolk State Spartans
Upset chance: 13.4 percent
Norfolk State point guard Diamond Johnson is averaging 3.6 steals a game, fifth-most in the country and more than anyone in the NCAA Tournament other than Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo. The Spartans are forcing live-ball turnovers on 15.5 percent of opponent possessions, ranking third in the NCAA. That’s enough right there to make them a dangerous killer — and in Maryland, they’re facing a severely over-seeded favorite. (Slingshot sees the Terps as the eighth-best team in this region.) Norfolk State, who has now won three straight MEAC titles under Coach Larry Vickers, has also boosted its eFG% by four percentage points this year (to 48.4 percent). They should be on your radar.
From favorite to underdog: West Virginia is 12th in our basic power ratings and ranks second in the country in steal percentage and 37th in OR%. If the Mountaineers get past the first round, Slingshot sees them as a viable candidate for the Sweet 16.
Birmingham 3 Region
Best upset chance: No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 13 Montana State Bobcats
Upset chance: 25.2 percent
It’s actually pronounced like it’s spelled, so say it with us: Taylee Chirrick. A freshman at Montana State, Chirrick explodes with energy — and fearlessness — and changes the character of any game she enters. She ranks sixth in the country with 3.4 steals a game, and the only reason she isn’t in the top two is because she wasn’t playing many minutes at the beginning of the season. And under her influence, the Bobcats are stealing the ball from opponents on a crazy 17.2 percent of possessions, the highest rate in the nation. Does anyone really believe Montana State can topple Ohio State? Probably not! But 60 spots in national power rankings, which is what separates these teams in Slingshot, isn’t too much to overcome if a high-voltage long shot short-circuits a favorite. Ohio State is a step up in class for Montana State, to be sure, but these cats are a deep dog to watch.
Not completely crazy: No. 6 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones*
Upset chance: 15.3 percent
*If Iowa State beats No. 11 Princeton
We don’t mean to keep offering lukewarm endorsements, but several of these matchups leave us no choice. Iowa State is the strongest No. 11 seed according to our power ratings. But the Cyclones just don’t take the kinds of risks that characterize go-for-broke Cinderellas. They emphasize protecting the ball rather than trying for turnovers (steals on just 7.2 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 325th). And they focus on defensive rather than offensive rebounding, with a 26.4 percent OR% (ranking 303rd) that’s a huge red flag for Slingshot. Indeed, their splits are so extreme that they are the kind of numbers we usually associate with teams trying to safely bully their way to the top of weak conferences, like Yale or Vermont in the men’s game. Michigan isn’t built like a particularly strong favorite, but Iowa State is a much, much better team than underdog.
Fun Fact: The competition is stiff, but Slingshot rates No. 1 seed Texas as the safest favorite in the first round.
Spokane 4 Region
Best upset chance: No. 6 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 11 Murray State Racers
Upset chance: 23.2 percent
The Racers have a few things going for them. They’ve got Katelyn Young, who has averaged 22.3 points per game this season and has scored more than 3,200 points over her career at Murray State. They shoot a ton of 3s. And Iowa is the weakest of the No. 6 seeds. But tread lightly when you hear analysts say things like, “Murray State led the nation in scoring.” They heave up 87.6 points per game, leading the NCAA. But they, uh, race at a tempo of 77.8 possessions per 40 minutes, the seventh-fastest pace in the country. That makes all their offensive stats look better. And it gives superior opponents the chance to pull away from them. Murray State, which ranks 51st in our basic power ratings, went just 4-4 against top-60 opponents this year. This is the region’s best chance for an upset but caveat emptor.
Not completely crazy: No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 13 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Upset chance: 12.3 percent
When Florida Gulf Coast launched its team in 2002, they were coached by Karl Smesko, who essentially brought the 3-point revolution to women’s basketball. Quietly preaching the virtues of efficient shooting from his outpost in Fort Myers, Smesko built an amazing program: Of the 12 teams with the all-time highest percentage of field-goal attempts taken as 3s, seven, including the top three, are FGCU squads. And after moving to the Atlantic Sun Conference in 2007, Smesko’s teams earned 10 NCAA Tournament bids and pulled deep upsets in four seasons. We think (and wrote) that Smesko belongs in the Hall of Fame, but the members of the selection committee never fully appreciated his work. Year after year, they awarded FGCU low seeds, as if they didn’t want to reward a gimmicky mid-major.
Well, Smesko left this season to coach the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream. And under his successor, Chelsea Lyles, Florida Gulf Coast went undefeated in the ASUN and 30-3 overall while relying somewhat less on long-range shooting (36.9 percent 3PA/FGA, ranking 40th, down from 2nd). But the committee didn’t like that too much, either, and seeded FGCU 14th in this region.
The Eagles are not only stronger than any other No. 14 seed, according to Slingshot, they’re better than all the No. 13 seeds, too. All that earned them was a date with Oklahoma, a very strong giant who really has things running efficiently with Raegan Beers (17.5 ppg, 8.9 rpg) in place. FGCU is always a good watch because they never stop trying to impose their style on a game. But that’s the story here.
Life lessons: In the women’s tournament, as you probably know, teams seeded first through fourth get to host home games in the first two rounds. So it’s especially important for underdogs to secure places on the 12-line or above. That way, they can at least face big-time opponents on neutral courts. In fact, Fairfield coach Carly Thibault-DuDonis turned that into a mantra this season, telling her team: “No thirteens!” And it worked! The Stags won 28 games and landed a No. 12 seed … but will now play Kansas State, the strongest No. 5 seed in the bracket.
Thibault-DuDonis is doing a great job modeling her program on successful mid-majors of past seasons, like Florida Gulf Coast and Middle Tennessee. But right now, even if a team escapes the bottom quarter of its region, there’s no guarantee it won’t land a dominant foe. Kansas State, meanwhile, is due to welcome back Ayoka Lee, one of the best shooters in the country, from injury and could be a sneaky championship contender. There are more of those championship contenders at the moment than well-positioned underdogs.
(Photo: Amber Searls / USA Today via Imagn Images; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
