There is no formula for accurately predicting who will win the NCAA Tournament. But over the years, we’ve learned a thing or two.
Including UConn last season, 19 of the past 22 national champions have been ranked among KenPom’s top six teams entering the postseason. Beyond that, 25 of the past 27 teams to win it all entered March Madness ranked in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The two exceptions are 2014 UConn, the outlier of all outliers, and 2021 Baylor, which barely missed those cutoffs during the COVID-19 season.
All of which is to say, while it’s fun to predict a team coming out of the woodwork to cut down the nets … it probably isn’t happening.
Using those criteria as our North Star, we’re left with only 11 teams. If history is any indication, one of them will be your 2025 national champions.
The favorite
Duke (31-3)
Why the Blue Devils can win it all: What more could you want? The Blue Devils have lost only once since Thanksgiving and are on an 11-game winning streak. They are the only team in college basketball with a top-five adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking, per KenPom, a testament to their elite ability on both ends of the floor. You’ll hear this stat repeated ad nauseam: Duke has the second-best net rating of any team ever in KenPom’s 29-season database, behind only 1999 Duke, widely considered the best team to never win it all. Not too shabby! Jon Scheyer’s team is also the tallest in the country, with every rotation player at least 6 feet 5.
Offensively, Duke is balanced and is top-10 in 2-point percentage and top-20 in 3-point and free-throw percentage. Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor, Sion James and Isaiah Evans shoot better than 38 percent from deep, and 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach has the best offensive rating of any player in the field. Oh, yeah — and all of that is without mentioning superstar Cooper Flagg. The 6-foot-9 forward ensures the ACC champions have the best player on the court every game. Plus, Scheyer won a national championship both as a player in 2010 and as an assistant in 2015, so he knows what it takes to cut down the nets.
The concerns: Health, mostly. Flagg and 6-foot-9 forward Maliq Brown, Duke’s most versatile defender, went down in the first half of the Blue Devils’ ACC tournament opener last week and haven’t played since. The long-term prognosis seems bleaker for Brown, who Scheyer said reaggravated a shoulder sprain. Best-case scenario, it’s hard to see Brown — who averages 3.1 steals per 40 minutes — returning before the Final Four. As for Flagg, it’s a rosier outlook. His sprained left ankle looked serious at the moment, but X-rays came back negative and Flagg never required a protective boot thereafter.
The other favorite
Florida (30-4)
Why the Gators can win it all: The hottest team in the country has won six straight — all against Top 25 teams — to clinch the SEC tournament title and earn a No. 1 seed. Since a 20-point shellacking Feb. 1 at Tennessee, Florida has been the second-best team in the country, per Bart Torvik, courtesy of the nation’s most efficient offense. Todd Golden has the best three-guard triumvirate in the field in Will Richard, Alijah Martin and Walter Clayton Jr., a first-team All-American averaging 19.5 points, 5.7 assists and 3.8 rebounds in March while shooting 41.5 percent from 3. Australian big man Alex Condon has been a revelation lately, emerging as one of the best screeners in America and a playmaking force at the top of the key. And on the rare occasion that the Gators’ shots aren’t falling? They’re also top-10 in offensive rebounding and fourth in Division I in second-chance points, with 15.3 per game, per CBB Analytics. Combine all that with an elite transition game, and Florida has unquestionably the most lethal offense in the field. But don’t let that distract from the defense, which is also top-10 in opposing 3-point percentage and top-15 in 2-point defense. Anyone who wins the best conference in the history of the sport, which sent 14 teams to the field, is more than capable of winning it all.
The concerns: An intensifying spotlight on Golden and assistant coach Taurean Green. Florida closed its Title IX investigation into Golden in late January, after finding “no evidence” to support allegations, the school announced. The investigation became public in November, when the UF student newspaper, The Alligator, reported that Golden was accused of sexual harassment and stalking. Green continued to coach after he was accused of sexual assault during the Title IX investigation.
Beyond that, for as good a coach as Golden is, and as strong a roster as he’s built, he’s never won an NCAA Tournament game as a head coach. His only tournament team at San Francisco got bounced in the first round against Murray State in 2022, and last season, his Gators were upset 102-100 by Colorado as a No. 7 seed. That will almost certainly change this season, but can he reasonably make the Final Four in his first true run? Basketball-wise, the biggest concern is a team outside of the top 200 in free-throw percentage.
The rest of the KenPom top-six
Houston (30-4)
Why the Cougars can win it all: Owners of the longest high-major winning streak entering the NCAA Tournament, Houston’s third consecutive No. 1 seed might be Kelvin Sampson’s best (and healthiest) team yet. After losing three nonconference games in November — two of them against top-2 seeds Auburn and Alabama — the Cougars have lost once since: by a point, in overtime, to Texas Tech. That’s why since December began, Bart Torvik ranks Houston as the best team in America. Sampson’s teams are always known for their staunch defense. Houston is second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and holds opponents to 58.5 points per game, the second-fewest in D-I.
But these Cougars can also finally shoot it. In fact, they’re tops among all NCAA Tournament teams in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent, with three players — Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan, and L.J. Cryer — above 42 percent from deep. Combine that with Houston’s typical tenacity on the offensive glass (top-15 nationally), and there’s little Sampson’s squad can’t do. Plus, after years of being snakebitten in the NCAA Tournament — including last season, when All-American Jamal Shead went down in the Sweet 16 — these Cougars avoided disaster last week when leading rebounder J’Wan Roberts went down with a sprained right ankle. He, like Flagg, is expected to be available this week, giving Houston its full eight-man rotation.
The concerns: If Roberts is anything short of 100 percent, then Houston’s frontcourt depth is juuuuust shallow enough to make you nervous. JoJo Tugler is sensational and a deserving national defensive player of the year semifinalist, but he’s the only true rotation player outside of Roberts who is taller than 6 feet 6. Against some of the sport’s longer teams, that could be problematic, especially as it relates to Houston’s offensive rebounding prowess. One reason the Cougars thrive despite making 49 percent of their 2s — the second-lowest percentage of any high-major tournament team behind Texas A&M — is because of that dominance on the boards. But other than that? There is a tendency at times to over-foul — but we’re clearly nit-picking here.
Houston 🛫 Wichita, Kansas#MarchMadness#ForTheCity x #GoCoogs pic.twitter.com/OiseCbkeFZ
— Houston Men’s Hoops 🏀 🐾 (@UHCougarMBK) March 18, 2025
Auburn (28-5)
Why the Tigers can win it all: Two and a half weeks ago, Auburn would’ve been the favorite. Are people seriously trying to argue that three losses since — all to top-four seeds — mean Bruce Pearl’s team isn’t one of the best in the nation? Auburn’s season-long resume is easily the most impressive in the country, and the Tigers winning the SEC regular-season title by multiple games only shows how dominant they’ve been. They’re second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, one of only four teams to rank top-15 in both. Of course, any Auburn conversation starts with Johni Broome. He’s averaging 18.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.3 blocks per game, and there’s no better low-post scorer in the entire NCAA Tournament. But the rest of his supporting cast is exceptional, too, with championship-caliber role definition. Four Tigers — Chad Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Kelly and Denver Jones — shoot above 37.5 percent from 3, and any of them are liable to go off any given night. Dylan Cardwell gives Pearl more beef inside, both as a rim-runner and rim protector, and Chaney Johnson is one of the better glue guys in America. Plus, in Pearl, Auburn has a coach who’s made a Final Four before.
The concerns: OK, so maybe there is reason for concern — especially defensively. Since Jones injured his ankle against Kentucky on March 1, the Tigers rank 54th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik, having regressed on the defensive glass and at defending without fouling. He’s returned, but the 6-foot-4 point guard and defensive player of the year semifinalist hasn’t looked quite himself. Broome — who suffered his own ankle injury in January, costing him two games — has also looked a little worse for wear, especially as it relates to his rim protection and lateral mobility. It’s fair to wonder if the grind of this SEC might be catching up to the Tigers. Also, we can’t avoid Baker-Mazara’s unpredictability. His ejection against Yale in the first round of last season’s tournament was a huge reason the Tigers got upset, and he was recently ejected against Alabama for elbowing someone in the head.
Tennessee (27-7)
Why the Vols can win it all: A Hall of Fame coach who made an Elite Eight run just last season? Check. Rick Barnes has one Final Four appearance to his name, but he’s made the second weekend nine times as a head coach, including both of the past two years. A top-three defense in adjusted efficiency, per usual? Also yes. Tennessee allows 63 points per game, the 11th-fewest in D-I, and is the only team outside of Houston that can reasonably claim it has the country’s most physical defense. Perimeter scorers Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier each have the potential to go off any given night. And don’t sleep on Jordan Gainey’s continued emergence. The 6-foot-4 senior guard has taken his offensive game to a new level, averaging 15.5 points over Tennessee’s past six games, including a season-high 24 against Florida in the SEC championship game.
The concerns: Per usual with Barnes, an offense that lags behind the defense. Tennessee actually has its second-best offensive rating of the Barnes era, but that doesn’t make this team immune to periods of offensive stagnation. For as good as Lanier is, he’s the only player on the roster with at least 20 made 3s this season at a 33 percent clip or better. When he’s off, or when defenses load up on him, can Zeigler or Gainey or Igor Milicic step up to keep teams honest? And let’s not ignore the year-over-year concern about how Tennessee’s physicality defensively is going to be officiated. All it takes is Lanier getting in foul trouble one time for the Vols’ best offensive player to be sidelined.
Alabama (25-8)
Why the Tide can win it all: Nate Oats’ team is fourth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency with the nation’s fastest tempo, which is the biggest reason Alabama has a chance to make consecutive Final Four appearances. The misnomer on Alabama is that the Tide live and die by the 3, which they shoot at a 35 percent clip this season. But that ignores the real purpose of Oats’ offense: shot volume and efficiency, largely via 2s and free throws. To that point, Alabama is the second-best 2-point shooting team in March Madness (behind only Creighton) and is fifth among tournament teams in free-throw rate. It also helps to have first-team All-American Mark Sears. (See: His game-winning floater versus rival Alabama.) The difference between this Alabama team and last year’s, though, is depth. Ten players average at least 15 minutes per game, meaning Oats can ride whoever has the hot hand. Don’t dock the Crimson Tide for their schedule, either. Alabama has played nine straight games against ranked opponents, a key reason for its 4-5 record down the stretch.
The concerns: Start with Grant Nelson, Alabama’s second-leading scorer and top rebounder, who injured his knee midway through the Tide’s SEC tournament loss to Florida. Nelson sported a clunky brace on the sideline the rest of the game, and while Oats said on Selection Sunday that he’s “hoping to get Grant back,” hope is not a plan. Alabama isn’t the same without Nelson — whose 24-point, 12-rebound outburst against North Carolina in last season’s Sweet 16 was arguably Alabama’s best individual postseason performance. Then there’s a defense that has allowed 90 points or more in five of its past nine games and forces turnovers at the third-lowest rate of any team in the field. Oats’ late-game coaching has also come into question. Alabama might be the most boom-or-bust top-2 seed in the entire bracket.
Honorable mentions: The rest of the 20/40 club
Texas Tech: Second- and third-leading scorers, Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian, missed the team’s Big 12 tournament loss to Arizona, although coach Grant McCasland told reporters that he’s “optimistic” they’ll be available for the opener against UNC-Wilmington. Since Feb. 1, TTU ranks as the sixth-best team in America, per Bart Torvik, behind only Duke, Florida, Houston, Alabama and Auburn — and that includes arguably the best win by any team all season: a one-point overtime victory on the road against Houston, in which All-American JT Toppin and McCasland were both ejected minutes into the game. Winning without the 6-foot-9 Toppin was borderline unbelievable, especially since he’s been averaging 23.4 points and 10.5 rebounds over the team’s past 11 games. The only question is, is the defense up to snuff?
Gonzaga: It looked a little hairy there for Gonzaga’s NCAA Tournament chances. But winning the WCC tournament erased all doubt and reminded folks why the Zags have been a metrics darling all season. Still, the disparity in Gonzaga’s seeding and its KenPom ranking proves this isn’t a typical Mark Few team. Of the No. 8 seeds, Gonzaga is ninth in KenPom’s rankings, while its peers — Louisville, Mississippi State and UConn — come in 23rd, 32nd and 35th. Wildly, the other two NCAA Tournament teams that Gonzaga beat all season bookended its schedule: a season-opening beatdown over Baylor and the WCC championship against Saint Mary’s. Few’s team is fifth nationally in free-throw shooting percentage and top-10 in 2-point percentage, but its 34.4 percent mark from 3 is middle of the pack. But there’s no understating the value of a coach who’s been there and a team whose players expect to make the Sweet 16.
Iowa State: Injuries have robbed TJ Otzelberger’s team of a legitimate chance to win it all. Second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert is out for the season, and since February began, Iowa State grades out as having the 40th-best offense in the country anyway, per Bart Torvik. Among Curtis Jones, Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson, there’s still talent here to win a few games, but the Cyclones had limited depth already. Which is a shame, since in November and December, it looked like ISU had a real shot.
Can Wisconsin guard John Tonje lead Badgers to the title? (Reggie Hildred / Imagn Images)
Wisconsin: The last time Wisconsin’s offense was this elite, the Badgers made the 2015 national title game. Greg Gard’s multi-year offensive evolution hit its peak this season, and while Wisconsin has stumbled down the stretch — only the 33rd most efficient offense in the country over its past 10 games — its run to the Big Ten title game, including a semifinal win over Michigan State, proves anything is still possible. Guard John Tonje averages 19.2 points and crossed the 30-point threshold five times. Pray that we get the Badgers against BYU in the Round of 32, because that might be the most exciting, high-octane game of the tournament. There’s little to write home about defensively here, and when the 3s aren’t falling, the Badgers could find themselves bounced quickly.
Arizona: Any team that beat Iowa State, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech (twice),and Baylor (twice) deserves to be taken seriously. But Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats have been a shell of their typically consistent selves. From Feb. 8th until the Big 12 tournament, Arizona did not win consecutive games. Much of that is predicated on an offense that ranks 12th nationally in adjusted efficiency but would be much better if Arizona wasn’t such a disaster from deep. Lloyd’s team makes 32.4 percent of its 3s, which barely is a top-250 rate in the country. The Wildcats are top-20 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and free-throw percentage, so they’ve found ways to win, but that’s hard to maintain in a single-elimination tournament. Of course, the last caveat here is that Arizona has graduate guard Caleb Love. He giveth, and he taketh. Which side of that scale wins out will determine if Arizona has a real shot to beat Duke in the Sweet 16.
(Photo of Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr.: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
