The busiest part of free agency is over. The NFL Draft is fast approaching. Let’s dispense with the preamble and jump right to the questions in our latest Broncos mailbag:
Running back is the most obvious need for next season. The only chance we have at Ashton Jeanty is to trade into the top 10. That is probably too much. Who do you see as the next best running backs? — Stephen K.
I share your belief that Jeanty won’t be available for the Broncos. The Raiders (No. 6), Bears (No. 10) and Cowboys (No. 12) are among the teams that probably won’t let the record-setting running back from Boise State slide by. Trading into the top 12 from where the Broncos sit at 20 would cost valuable draft capital that teams simply don’t expend on running backs in this era.
Luckily for the Broncos, there are numerous other options — and the Broncos have already spent ample time evaluating them. North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton is widely viewed as the No. 2 running back in the class behind Jeanty and has been a frequent mock draft match with the Broncos. His ability in the passing game is intriguing, but he’d also give the Broncos a dynamic three-down presence they haven’t had since Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams were both healthy and interchanging in that role in 2021. He’s physical enough to stand up as a pass protector and ran faster at the combine (4.46-second 40) than some expected. There is a lot to like.
But there is no guarantee Hampton will be around for the Broncos. In the second round, Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins and Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson are among the options to watch.
Who do you think the Broncos will take in the NFL Draft? Also, do you think we add any running backs or wide receivers in free agency or through trades prior to the draft? — Sofian K.
For multiple reasons, it’s hard to predict what the Broncos will do with their first-round pick. For starters, Denver’s work in free agency has put them in a position to take a player at virtually any position outside of quarterback. Yes, they need a running back, but one longtime draft prospect evaluator told me this is one of the deepest classes for backs he’s ever seen, so Denver doesn’t have to take one with their top pick. Plus, it’s impossible to know what the pool of available talent will look like when the Broncos are on the clock. They’d love for three quarterbacks to be selected ahead of them, pushing more talent their way.
As for the rest of free agency, I don’t see the Broncos picking up another wide receiver unless it’s something like bringing back Lil’Jordan Humphrey. They already signed Trent Sherfield for depth, and Payton has made it pretty clear he wants to see young wide receivers Marvin Mims, Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin continue to get the opportunities that allow them to develop. Unless you are landing a game-changing talent — and none of those are left in free agency, in my estimation — you’re creating an unnecessary roadblock to young growth.
The free-agent running back market has largely dried up. The only players at that position on The Athletic’s top 150 list of free agents are JK Dobbins and Nick Chubb. Both remain available largely because of extensive injury histories. Again, the Broncos don’t need to force their hand. There is a bounty of talent available in the draft.
What do you think the Broncos need to do to take the AFC West this season from Kansas City and how plausible do you find that goal? — Mark J.
It’s plausible for many reasons. The Chiefs’ historic run of one-score success — 17 consecutive wins games decided by seven points or less — can’t last forever. Right? Beyond that, though, the division may be more talented (and collectively better coached) than at any time since Kansas City’s run of nine straight division titles began in 2024.
But winning the division has to come down more to what the Broncos do than what the Chiefs — and Raiders and Chargers, for that matter — don’t do. Denver must be a more consistently effective running team. Adding tight end Evan Engram should not only give second-year quarterback Bo Nix a great third-down security blanket, among other things, but it should also help Denver blend their run and pass concepts. But that will only matter if the Broncos can identify a running back capable of taking advantage of those opportunities.
They’ll also need to experience some of the same injury results — call it some combination of preparation and luck — that have made them one of the league’s healthiest teams the past two seasons. The three marquee free-agent additions (Engram, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga) are obvious upgrades at positions of previous need if they are healthy, but that will be a question until it isn’t.
Lastly, can Nix take a leap as Denver’s second-year quarterback? He should have more weapons. He’s familiar with Payton’s offense. He has 18 games of experience, including a road playoff game. But defenses will also spend the offseason scheming ways to limit Nix’s playmaking ability.
There is a plausible path to Denver winning its first division title since 2015, but it’s still quite the needle to thread when you’re talking about knocking off the team that has represented the AFC in the last three Super Bowls.
Is there any indication that Pat Surtain II is asking for a contract adjustment given that the NFL Defensive Player of the Year’s contract leaves him comparatively underpaid given the new cornerback contracts this offseason? — Sean G.
There’s no such thing as wage stagnation if you’re an elite player in the NFL. The Broncos last September made Surtain the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history when they signed him to a four-year, $96 million extension. The $77 million in guarantees were the most ever at the position and Surtain’s $24 million in average annual value was $3 million more at the time than any corner had been given in a deal.
The Dolphins’ Jalen Ramsey beat Surtain’s AAV mark a few days later when he signed a three-year contract at $24.1 million per season. This offseason, the Panthers’ Jaycee Horn ($25 million per year) and Texans’ Derek Stingley Jr. ($30 million) have further surpassed Surtain’s annual mark in average annual value of new money on their deals.
Pat Surtain II has picked up an NFL Defensive Player of the Year honor since signing his new deal in September. (Bart Young / Associated Press)
But it’s important to remember that there are many nuances to these contracts beyond the numbers in the headlines. With Stingley, for example, his three-year, $90 million contract is an extension to the two years he had remaining on his deal. So his contract is actually five years and $113 million, which brings his average annual value to around $22.6 million. There are a lot of different lenses through which to view contracts when trying to evaluate which one is the “best contract” for the player.
With all that established, it’s unlikely Surtain, assuming a similar level of production, will get to the end of his deal without an adjustment at some point that brings him in line with whatever the top of the market at the position is dictating. Case in point, the Bills just signed MVP quarterback Josh Allen to a new extension despite Allen having several years remaining on his contract. The Broncos and Surtain don’t need to act now, but it will probably come at some point in the not-too-distant future.
With Von Miller now a free agent, is there any interest on the Broncos’ side to bring him back as a rotational pass rusher on a cheaper contract? — Elwaymagic7
The answer is no for multiple reasons. First, the Broncos have a pretty set rotation at outside linebacker with Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper, Jonah Elliss and Dondrea Tillman. All had at least five sacks last season and none is older than 27. That’s a solid lineup, and that’s before you get to what Denver might add in the draft.
The other part is the evaluation of Miller. He’ll turn 36 later this month and has missed a combined 15 games the past three seasons with injuries and a suspension. He has produced only six sacks the past two seasons. It’s hard to argue he’d be an upgrade over anything the Broncos have on their roster right now.
That doesn’t change what Miller means to the Broncos. He’s arguably the greatest defensive player in franchise history. He’ll be in Denver’s Ring of Fame as soon as he’s eligible. His performance in Super Bowl 50 will never be forgotten. But a return to Denver as a player in 2025 doesn’t make sense.
A Von Miller return to the Broncos appears unlikely. (Tina MacIntyre-Yee / Imagn Images)
Bo Nix seems to have the legs to be more of a dual threat than he was last season. New personnel aside, is increasing the use of his athleticism going to be part of taking the offense to the next level? — Preston K.
Great question, Preston. Payton reiterated at last month’s combine that Nix’s speed — not as a scrambler, but as a runner in the open field — was a greater weapon than he expected during the quarterback’s rookie season. The Broncos ranked eighth in the NFL in combined designed rushes and scrambles from the quarterback position with 78, according to TruMedia. They ranked sixth in efficiency (expected points added per designed rush) on those runs. So it was already a sizable and effective part of Denver’s offense.
I think the Broncos may want fewer scrambles from Nix this season because it would likely mean he has targets more consistently getting open in critical situations. That could correlate with an uptick in newly designed runs for Nix, ultimately making his overall rushing impact the same as what it was last season. But that’s just one way it could go. We’ll have to see what different nuances the 2025 offense may have when training camp gets underway. The bottom line is that his running ability will remain a key piece of what Nix brings to Denver’s offense.
What has to wait because this is the last year of dead money from Russell Wilson’s contract? Raises, free agents, positions of need? Anything being done this year to be prepared to take advantage next year after this albatross is lifted? — Shane K.
The Broncos felt most of the pinch of the Wilson dead-money hit last season because they chose to take $53 million of the $85 million onto their 2024 salary cap. The biggest ramifications of that a year ago were a slim free-agency budget — they needed to move on from key players like Jerry Jeudy and Justin Simmons to create any room — and the need to find a cheap option at quarterback. They made the most of those so-called restrictions by nailing budget free-agent signings like safety Brandon Jones (three years, $20 million) and defensive tackle Malcolm Roach (two years, $7 million) and, of course, selecting Nix ($3.38 million cap hit) in the first round and watching him turn in the best season for a rookie quarterback in franchise history. It all helped the Broncos reach the playoffs for the first time since 2015 despite leading the league in dead money.
The Broncos aren’t feeling much of the impact this season. Would they have liked to have had $32 million more in spending power? Sure. But Denver was able to address its needs with three marquee free-agent signings, plus a $39 million extension for D.J. Jones. The Broncos already began arranging their post-Wilson financial puzzle last season by handing out big extensions to Quinn Meinerz, Jonathon Cooper and Garett Bolles.
The bigger ramification of missing with the Wilson trade, in my estimation, is the draft capital void the Broncos had for three seasons as a result. They haven’t had a second-round pick higher than No. 63 since 2021. They didn’t have first-round picks in 2022 or 2023. As well as the Broncos have done acquiring and developing young talent in the past couple of seasons — players like Nik Bonitto, Marvin Mims and Riley Moss — they have had to deal with a talent void that resulted from not having those premium picks.
What are the possibilities of the Broncos taking an elite tackle prospect, like Josh Simmons, if he falls to them at 20? It feels like that may be too good of an opportunity to pass up if the plan is, hopefully, to consistently be drafting in the mid- to late-20s over the next few years. Garett Bolles isn’t getting any younger. — Adrian C.
One of the crazier draft factoids out there is that the Broncos have not selected an offensive tackle at any point in the draft since taking Bolles in the first round in 2017. The streak has to end at some point, right?
Simmons was on the board when I made the Broncos’ pick at No. 20 in our latest beat-writer mock draft at The Athletic. The smooth, 6-foot-5, 310-pound prospect was a consideration, but I felt uneasy about using that premium pick on a player who is coming off a knee injury. I really think the Broncos want someone with their first-round pick who will make an immediate impact for a team that believes it can compete for the AFC West title in 2025.
The Broncos just signed Bolles to a four-year extension. Mike McGlinchey’s contract suggests he’ll be the right tackle for at least the next two seasons. The Broncos should be on the lookout for developmental tackle options throughout the draft. But I’d be surprised if they took one in the first round.
How hard are the Broncos looking to improve their offensive line in the draft? It seems to me improving the line should be a bigger priority than finding a running back. Gotta have holes to run through. — Gary C.
The run game was an interesting case study last season. The offensive line ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s run block win rate metric. Denver also ranked eighth in yards per carry before contact (1.62), according to TruMedia, which tends to speak to the space being created for ball-carriers. Yet, the Broncos ranked just 23rd in yards per running back rush attempt (4.1). There is evidence to suggest they have the right offensive line in place and can take a leap as a running team with the right running back in place.
That doesn’t mean they aren’t trying to upgrade their offensive line. They could have all five starters back in 2024, but center Luke Wattenberg is entering the final year of his rookie contract and left guard Ben Powers has no guaranteed money left on his deal after this season. It would not be a surprise to see the Broncos add interior depth as early as Day 2 of the draft.
Bit of a random thought but has there been any talk of another in-season iteration of “Hard Knocks” this year? It seems to me the AFC West would be primed to be the division featured if they do, given the retooling of the Raiders, the upshot ambition of the Chargers and Broncos and the dynasty of the Chiefs. Any chatter or thoughts coming out on that front? — Nick
Fun question (and great name), Nick. The only thing we know about “Hard Knocks” for sure is that the offseason version isn’t happening this year. Apparently, there was no team willing to suffer the public humiliation the New York Giants front office endured last year — and who can blame them? Nothing else has been officially announced, but I’ve heard the division-based, in-season version of the show is set to run for another season in 2025. I agree that the AFC West would be a fascinating group to profile. Has there ever been a division with four coaches with the combined resumes of Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll? Of course, the status of those coaches may also help them wiggle out of “the opportunity” to be featured.
(Top photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
