Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
The countdown has finally hit zero! Selection Sunday has arrived, which means it is the day of reckoning for bubble squads across the country.
Saturday’s games produced mixed results for the teams sweating it out. Colorado State’s win over Boise State in the Mountain West title game means that Boise State is in the at-large pool, and a 24-win team that beat Clemson and Saint Mary’s in nonconference play will warrant serious consideration as an at-large. The Rams, meanwhile, are playing as well as any team in the country, having won 10 consecutive games en route to the league’s automatic bid.
In the American and the Atlantic 10, chalk held, with Memphis and VCU both surviving their respective semifinal matchups. The Tigers are locked into a bid no matter what happens in the AAC title game, but VCU would merit serious bubble discussion if it falls to George Mason in the A-10 championship.
That means the rest of the at-large candidates have major rooting interests on Sunday: Memphis and VCU. Against Memphis, UAB is hunting its second straight AAC tournament title, and the Blazers have the talent to push the Tigers to the limit.
In the A-10 final, VCU is the better team on paper. The Rams beat George Mason by 16 in Richmond on Feb. 22, but the Patriots led at halftime of that contest, and their tremendous defense could make that matchup a toss-up.
For the NCAA Tournament selection committee, Sunday is a nightmare. Both of those results could alter the composition of the field, so they will have to construct multiple contingency brackets before the selection show begins. That also might affect VCU’s at-large candidacy: Would the committee simply reserve one spot for the winner of the A-10 for the sake of simplicity?
After days and weeks of speculation, we will finally find out the answers. The bracket will be revealed, and bubble teams will greet their fate, whether it be good or bad. After that, March Madness truly begins.
For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below.
- Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
- Should Be In teams are not Locks but not really in much danger of missing the dance.
- In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
- On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration — a win away from being a win away.
- Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
- Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement since Friday
Up to Lock: None
Up to Should Be In: None
Up to In the Mix: None
Added to On the Fringe: None
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: None
Dropped from On the Fringe: None
Earned automatic bid: Colorado State, UC San Diego
ACC
Locks: Clemson, Duke (auto-bid), Louisville
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: North Carolina, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: SMU
In The Mix
North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-12 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: In desperate need of a Q1 win, UNC looked thoroughly overmatched against a Cooper Flagg-less Duke for 25 minutes. Hubert Davis’ Heels refused to roll over, though, and they rallied back from a 24-point deficit to cut the lead to one in the waning seconds. With a chance to tie the game, though, the Heels were whistled for a lane violation on a free throw, and the comeback effort fell short. UNC must now hope that a resume that features a 1-12 record against Q1 is enough. Will the Heels’ name brand and solid metrics sway the committee? It feels unlikely given their terrible winning percentage against top competition, but crazier things have happened.
Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Decent 8-9 record against the top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The door slammed shut for Wake Forest on Thursday. The Demon Deacons successfully dragged UNC into a halfcourt slugfest, but they could not make the necessary plays late in a close loss against a fierce bubble rival. Wake’s resume metric average now lies outside the top 50, so that is no longer a key strength on a resume that has little else to offer. Barring a wild pro-Demon Deacons faction on the NCAA selection committee, it is hard to picture Wake getting into the dance at this point.
Big 12
Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston (auto-bid), Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: Baylor
In the Mix: West Virginia
On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU
Should Be In
Baylor
What They Need: The Bears nearly completed a monumental comeback against Texas Tech on Thursday night, but they came up just short as VJ Edgecombe’s buzzer-beating runner banked harmlessly off the rim. Baylor is now in the bubble mix, though the Bears’ bona fides — sparkling quality metrics, solid resume metrics, five Q1 wins, 11-13 record against the top two quadrants — all point towards being in the field. The biggest risk is if the committee goes rogue and cites the version of Baylor without injured center Josh Ojianwuna (4-6 overall, no Q1 victories) is different enough not to warrant inclusion. I do not expect that to be the case.
In the Mix
West Virginia
Profile Strengths: Six Q1 wins, including four in Q1A, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Metrics are squarely in bubble land, 13 total losses.
Looking Ahead: After careful reexamination, I am moving West Virginia back down a category. Their metrics are on par with the rest of the bubble, and the committee has the “out” of devaluing a couple of the Mountaineers’ early wins since Tucker DeVries played in them. Fortunately for WVU, the Big 12 tournament loss to Colorado was in Quad 2, so it is not a “bad” loss on the resume, but it’s a worrisome closing statement to the Mountaineers’ at-large argument. Six Q1 wins and no bad losses may still be enough, but WVU will be nervously rooting against bid stealers until Sunday.
Big East
Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s (auto-bid), UConn
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: None
In The Mix
Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: Heartbreak at Madison Square Garden for Xavier. The Musketeers led Marquette for most of the first 35 minutes, including a 14-point cushion with 17 minutes left in the game. But they could not hold off the tenacious Golden Eagles, and despite 38 points from Ryan Conwell, Xavier missed out on a massive Q1 opportunity. Sean Miller’s team is now at the mercy of the selection committee — and of the quadrant cutoffs. The Musketeers needed UConn to end in the top 30 to add a second Q1 win to their resume, but the Huskies are No. 32. They would also love for the committee to value that five of Xavier’s eight Q2 wins are in the “high Q2” area (home vs. NET 31-55, neutral vs. NET 51-75, road at NET 76-100). Xavier is as bubbly as it gets, and the wait until Sunday night will be excruciating.
Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State
On the Fringe: Nebraska
In The Mix
Indiana
Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-13 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: The Hoosiers could not get over the hump against Oregon on Thursday afternoon and have been fretting over their fate all weekend. Indiana has beaten every opponent it should beat, and it played up a couple of crucial times. The ultra-high-end road win at Michigan State looms especially large as one of the best wins of anyone on the bubble. If I had to guess, this is a First Four squad, but a lot can still change between now and Sunday.
Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two games over .500 overall, 9-15 record against Q1/Q2.
Looking Ahead: Ohio State is in real trouble after dropping its Big Ten tournament opener to Iowa. Although that game in itself is no issue (just a Q2 defeat), it put the Buckeyes in the terrifying position of being just 17-15 overall, two games over .500. No team so close to neutral has ever received an at-large bid, meaning that Ohio State needs a mini-miracle to go dancing now. Based on the other strengths of this resume, we’ll keep OSU in the mix, but some committee members may automatically eliminate the Buckeyes at this point.
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Arkansas
In the Mix: Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None
Should Be In
Arkansas
What They Need: Arkansas let Lock status slip away against Ole Miss on Thursday afternoon. With the score tied at 80, Trevon Brazile’s go-ahead free throws with under 10 seconds remaining bricked off the iron, and the Rebels’ Sean Pedulla drilled a 3 just before the buzzer to send Ole Miss onward. As a result, the Razorbacks will be tense until they see their name revealed on Selection Sunday. That is not a guarantee, but the Hogs’ five Q1 wins and overall clean resume (zero bad losses) should get them to Dayton for the First Four, at the very least.
In The Mix
Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, competitive metrics, 11-12 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, conference record eyesore?
Looking Ahead: The Sooners hope to never see Otega Oweh again. The former Sooner ripped his old team’s heart out again late Thursday night, and Oklahoma took another gutwrenching one-point loss at the buzzer. The Sooners have clearly proven themselves at the highest level via seven Q1 wins, many of which were away from home. Porter Moser, Jeremiah Fears, and the rest of the squad have a long wait until Sunday night, but as long as the committee doesn’t balk at a 6-12 conference record in a league with 12 or 13 other NCAA Tournament teams, this profile looks good enough to dance.
Texas
Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, no bad losses, solid quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 10-15 record against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Texas could not make it a trio of key wins in Nashville, falling to Tennessee on Friday. The Longhorns will now sit nervously in the lobby of the Bubble Hotel until Sunday evening. Texas’ seven Q1 wins are tied for the most of anyone on the bubble, but their 15 total losses are also tied for the most. The Horns’ awful nonconference strength of schedule could be the factor that keeps them out of the dance; the selection committee has frequently cited that number when justifying leaving teams out. Texas appears to be one of the closest teams to the cutline, in or out, with a divisive resume of clear strengths and weaknesses.
The Rest
Locks: Drake (auto-bid), Gonzaga (auto-bid), UC San Diego, (auto-bid), Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Boise State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine
On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco
In The Mix
Boise State
Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: One loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Looking Ahead: The Broncos suffered a triple sweep against Colorado State on Saturday in the Mountain West championship game, dropping them into the at-large pool. Boise State’s massive victories in the nonconference — at home against Clemson, at a neutral site over Saint Mary’s — will give the committee plenty to think about, but a terrible Q4 loss to Boston College could offset some of that success. The Broncos are squarely on the bubble: Comparing them to Indiana, Texas, UNC, Xavier and others makes for a difficult decision. Leon Rice is hoping for his sixth NCAA Tournament bid as head coach, but Boise could fall short in a tight bubble squeeze.
Dayton
Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, 2-6 record vs. Q2, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Flyers’ late push for an at-large bid likely ran out of gas on Friday with an overtime loss to Saint Joseph’s. Dayton’s metrics were already outside of typical at-large territory, and adding another loss before the A-10 title game appears to be too much to withstand, especially with a poor record in Q2 games. Flyers faithful can cling to desperate hope, but Dayton’s name appearing in the bracket would be a shock.
San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-8 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs fell to Boise State in their Mountain West tournament opener, managing a meager 52 points in a disappointing offensive effort. Not only did that add another loss to SDSU’s ledger, but it also gave the bubble adversary Broncos an extra Q1 win. SDSU’s neutral-site win over Houston remains a crown jewel, and SDSU did sweep Boise during the regular season. A neutral-site win over Creighton has aged well, too. But this is a truly nebulous case, and SDSU will join the chorus of teams ardently cheering against bid stealers on Sunday.
VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, 11-5 road/neutral record, 7-5 in Q1+Q2 games.
Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: It got tight late, but VCU got the victory over Loyola to clinch a spot in the A-10 championship game. A loss to George Mason would create a major discussion. The Rams clearly fall short in the Q1 wins department, but they dominated a solid league and grade out as a clear at-large team via quality metrics. They will be a nuanced case for the committee, but they do control their own fate: Beat George Mason for a second time, and VCU will be dancing.
UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 18-3 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: In a much-anticipated Big West final, the Anteaters fell to UC San Diego, putting Russell Turner’s team on the NCAA Tournament bubble. UC Irvine is lacking in some of the traditionally key bubble areas, only notching one Q1 win and taking three Q3 losses. However, the Anteaters’ resume metrics are still in at-large range, and their 18 road/neutral wins are an NCAA single-season record. If the selection committee wants to set a standard for mid-majors, UC Irvine would be a worthy inclusion, emphasizing the importance of winning away from home. It remains unlikely, but UC Irvine could snag one of the final at-large bids.
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(Photos: Chris Jones / Imagn Images; Mykal McEldowney / IndyStar / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
