Three years on and the big idea is intact. The clock is ticking on Amanda Staveley’s prediction, made on day one of Newcastle United’s Saudi Arabian-led takeover, that five to 10 years was a realistic timetable to be challenging for the big trophies, but there is no attempt to row back on it. “That’s definitely the ambition,” is the word from the club’s upper echelons.
On the third anniversary of fans cavorting outside St James’ Park, celebrating the end of Mike Ashley’s ownership, Newcastle believe they have “exceeded” their own expectations. It is hardly a contentious argument, not when the team have clambered from bottom of the Premier League to that imperious night when Paris Saint-Germain were swept away 4-1.
Everywhere, there are signposts of change: club-record signings, consecutive top-seven league finishes, a revamped training ground, a bouncing fanzone, a return to the Champions League, a kit deal with Adidas, a new club shop, and an insatiable clamour for the tickets that in Ashley’s time were given away.
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Yet a natural moment for reflection arrives amid some uncertainty. A testing 12 months, when Eddie Howe’s squad was riven by injury and then stagnated over consecutive transfer windows, when the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR) bit, when senior executives, including co-owners Staveley and Mehrdad Ghodoussi, have left, have shaken Newcastle.
The wonder that accompanied them for the first two years post-takeover has dissipated — something that was always going to happen as an underachieving club became more familiar with winning.
Dan Burn scores Newcastle’s second goal against PSG in the group stages last year (FRANCK FIFE / AFP)
Exactly 12 months after PSG, Howe described that performance as the “benchmark for what we want to look like,” but added, “unfortunately for us, it was one big memory, one big highlight,” when Newcastle “wanted that consistently”.
“Initially, we were always preparing for what was on the immediate horizon,” says a senior figure at Newcastle who, like others quoted in this article, was granted anonymity in order to discuss club strategy freely. “Attention is now on the medium-term plan.”
What does that mean? Redeveloping or relocating the stadium, they say. A new training ground (maybe), growing commercial revenues and turbo-charging Newcastle’s academy. On Friday, Howe referred to it as “the next phase of the takeover”, but this returns us to the big idea. These are all things that have been spoken about ad nauseam for three years.
“Where is the progress?” one leading source asked in March when Newcastle, who were then 10th in the Premier League, went out of the FA Cup. Players had committed themselves to an exciting project, but if the club was not winning things and not yet amongst the highest payers, where was the proof that Newcastle truly meant business?
Are Saudi’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), Newcastle’s 85 per cent owners, as committed as they were? “Simple answer: yes,” says the leading figure. But others in positions of responsibility have been less sure. Some are worried Saudi priorities have shifted towards internal investment and there has been frustration at the slow pace of their “process-driven” structure.
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This is where Newcastle are three years on. The team is attempting to outdo its own high standards, without the help of quality additions. The tight relationship between Staveley, Ghodoussi and Howe is part of history and everybody is still adjusting. Most players know they were briefly expendable during the dash to comply with PSR and Darren Eales, the chief executive, will be next to leave as he contends with ill-health. Momentum is no longer quite such an ally.
If that sounds wholly negative, it shouldn’t. The vision is as compelling as ever. Fourth place and PSG was a glimpse of it and there have been many others. “It’s a really exciting time to be associated with Newcastle,” Howe said. “I think there’s a lot going to happen in the future.”
But the big idea remains just that — part of the future. An idea of what the club can be.
On the field
There is still no trophy, but the football has been revolutionised.
In six transfer windows, Newcastle have spent a gross £450million ($591.7m) and a net £350m.
The investment has been substantial, yet Newcastle have hardly transformed their squad in the manner Chelsea did in 2003, or Manchester City did post-2008, when they spent £500m during the five years before Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules were introduced. Chelsea have spent £1.2billion (net £700m) since May 2022.
Dan Ashworth, the former sporting director, stressed internally that Newcastle needed three summers to reconstruct their squad. But, by the third, Newcastle’s financial position had become so constrained that they did not make a signing who improved their first XI.
Their expenditure requires further context. Newcastle have had to progress from a very low base.
The club were second-bottom, winless and with three points from seven games in October 2021 when the takeover was completed. Across the subsequent three years, only four teams have claimed more points (186).
Howe has a 1.7 points-per-game record and a 48.1 per cent win rate from 110 matches, bettered only by Kevin Keegan in the Premier League at Newcastle.
Under Howe, Newcastle are fifth for goals scored (193) and expected goals (xG, 190.8), while they have conceded the fourth-fewest (140) from the seventh-lowest xG against (149.3). Only five sides have won more than Newcastle’s 53 matches.
The playing style has also been transformed. Across 2022-23, Newcastle’s high-intensity, high-pressing approach smothered opponents.
Using Club Elo metrics, which allots points for every result during the season, we can visualise the dramatic improvement.
What’s more, three starters against Everton — Joelinton, Jacob Murphy and Fabian Schar — were players Howe inherited.
While Bruno Guimaraes, Alexander Isak, et al have enhanced the quality, Howe has extracted far more from those already there.
Below is the final starting XI of the Ashley era. Joelinton started at Goodison Park, Joe Willock, Miguel Almiron and Sean Longstaff remain first-team regulars, while Schar, Murphy and Emil Krafth were substitutes. Schar is the most-used player under Howe (100 appearances) — another four inherited players feature in the top 10 — while Callum Wilson has scored the most goals (33).
Ideally, Howe would have liked greater player churn, but PSR — “our biggest challenge,” says the senior figure — has prevented further squad refreshment.
Newcastle have maximised their spending capacity and, mostly, invested wisely. But Paul Mitchell, the sporting director, was right to cite their poor selling record as being restrictive, preventing reinvestment. Too many of Newcastle’s squad are ageing — Wilson and Almiron included — when they should have been replaced. Staleness risks setting in.
Depth issues remain. Last season, an injury-ravaged Newcastle could not compete on multiple fronts, despite their stated desire being to qualify for Europe every season.
When Howe led Newcastle to fourth, he did so with the ninth-highest wage bill (£170m). Manchester City’s was £423m, with the traditional ‘Big Six’ spending at least £212m each on salaries.
The difference between perception and reality is cited by multiple insiders as one of the most difficult challenges they have faced.
“We’ve got work to do,” Howe said. “We’re well aware of where we currently stand. When you look at revenue and wage bills, the really key markers of long-term, consistent success, we’re not there. We’re striving to get there.”
Chelsea won the Premier League two years after Roman Abramovich arrived, while Manchester City’s first cup came within three. The Premier League still seems a long shot this decade, but silverware is possible soon.
That feels like the next significant barometer of whether Newcastle are on track.
Infrastructure
Relative to a decade and more of inertia under Ashley, Newcastle’s facilities are now unrecognisable.
Remember when a first-teamer told The Athletic that “injured players have to work their rehab around people doing Zumba classes at the local David Lloyd (gym)” (something the club denied)?
Newcastle’s training ground is now fit for purpose — modern and airy. “It had to happen, because we couldn’t have attracted elite athletes to come to Newcastle if we hadn’t drastically improved,” Staveley told The Athletic in February.
Yet relative to the rest of the Premier League, football staff say it puts them on a par with mid-table sides. It is not elite level. Here, it feels like Newcastle are treading water. In February 2022, Ghodoussi said: “We’re currently looking at sites (for a purpose-built training ground). That will probably take three years, maybe a little bit more, because we have to do designs, planning, all of those things.”
Amanda Staveley and Mehrdad Ghodoussi at the Premier League match between Manchester City and Newcastle United at Etihad Stadium in August last year (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Later that year, a senior figure explained they now had four specific locations in mind.
Criteria can change. As Staveley admitted eight months ago: “Everything is up for discussion. When we took over, I think we all assumed the right solution would be to put everyone (the men and women’s teams) together, but what I’ve learned is to bring in the best people and help them work out what’s needed.”
This is fair enough; when it comes to restocking departments, Newcastle are still playing catch-up. Brad Miller, who oversaw the £1.3bn transformation of Manchester Airport’s Terminal 2, was only appointed Newcastle’s chief operating officer in late May.
In August, Miller said: “We are looking at what is our forever home and is that where we are at? Or are there opportunities to help the football side by moving elsewhere?”
Does this sound a bit like square one? Some at the club have expressed frustration, suggesting that PIF, for whom Newcastle represent a fraction of their $925billion worth of assets, have simply not green-lit plans. This is something the club roundly reject.
There have been similar sentiments around what can be done around the stadium, a debate that is heightened because so many fans are locked out.
In 2022, Ghodoussi told The Athletic: “Are we going to build a new stadium? No. It would be like tearing your soul out.” This was Newcastle’s starting point and people with knowledge of the situation have repeatedly stated in private that Newcastle will not be moving, although this has never been the club’s official position.
Late last year, Newcastle began a feasibility study on what would be possible, whether that meant staying or going. In July, Eales said an initial report was “imminent”, while the following month Miller said: “It really, truly is (imminent) in terms of next steps and what direction we’re going to be taking.”
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On Thursday, Newcastle published findings, with Miller saying: “We aren’t quite at a decision-making stage yet, but we are targeting the early part of 2025.”
Getting it right is vital. As Miller said in August, “stadium investment is genuinely a once-in-a-generation opportunity… we only want to write that cheque once.”
Will PIF actually write it? “I genuinely don’t know,” says one source, but it is the reason Miller has uprooted his family to the region. “I hope that’s an indication of how I feel about it personally and the ownership’s ambition,” he said.
Given that Newcastle city council, who own the land St James’ sits on, say they are yet to have any formal discussions with the club about the stadium’s future, perhaps “imminent” was not quite what it seemed.
Commercial
Commercial revenue is a necessary obsession at the top of Newcastle. Greater income means greater capacity to invest in football and sponsorship deals are the most ripe for ramping up.
Ashley’s regime outsourced almost everything, meaning the club’s commercial income barely grew under his leadership, increasing from £27.6m in 2007 to just £29.1m over 13 years. Over the same period, Manchester City’s rocketed from £119m to £272m.
In 2019-20, Newcastle were 11th in the Premier League for commercial income. The six biggest clubs earned an average of £207m from sponsorship contracts — more than seven times what Newcastle received.
Peter Silverstone, Newcastle’s chief commercial officer, assumed his position in October 2022, inheriting a commercial department with only four staff — 60 times smaller than the biggest Premier League clubs.
Gone are the remnant (and undervalued) associations of the Ashley era.
Sela has replaced Fun88 as the front-of-shirt sponsor, bringing in a reported £25m a year, a significant uplift on the previous £7m deal which was due to run until 2025 but was terminated early. Another PIF-backed company, Noon, pay £6.7m for sleeve sponsorship.
Commercial revenue stalled under Ashley (RATCLIFFE/AFP via Getty Images)
Then there is the Adidas kit agreement, which is believed to bring in anywhere between £25m and £40m annually, at least four times the £6m Castore paid Newcastle. That agreement also brought the club shop back in house and a new “best-in-class” store, inspired by Borussia Dortmund, is set to open at St James’ this month. In total, 12 fresh sponsorship deals have been agreed over the past 12 months.
There was the Amazon Prime documentary “We Are Newcastle United” and Sam Fender concerts have been staged at St James’. The 3,000-capacity STACK fanzone opened behind the Gallowgate End in August brought in more money than Newcastle envisioned in their projections and is showcasing local food businesses. The long-term lease for the Strawberry Place, where it sits, was bought back by Newcastle last year after Ashley sold it in 2019.
Some supporters have queried why there is no training ground or training-kit sponsor yet, while Newcastle are yet to seriously explore a stadium-name partner — one that would retain St James’ as part of its title — despite Eales publicly floating the possibility. Manchester City, meanwhile, reportedly receive £67.5m annually from their Etihad deal.
But Silverstone and his fellow executives are adamant Newcastle cannot merely rush into deals. They want to “maximise value and future value”, so rather than secure a long-term contract now which is undervalued in two years’ time, the club is aiming to strike the right balance.
That means there is still significant room for growth, which will come as welcome relief to supporters given how much ground they have to recover.
Although Newcastle’s overall revenue grew by 40 per cent in successive years to £250.3million — and their commercial income increased by two-thirds inside 12 months from £26.5m to £43.9m — Manchester United’s annual revenue was £279m as far back as 2009. In their latest accounts, it stood at £661.8m. Newcastle may be seventh in the revenue table, but they are dwarfed by Arsenal in sixth, who brought in £464m in 2022-23.
As Eales declared in January, “We are still a long way behind the top six.”
Of course, part of the reason why PSR has been so restrictive is that Newcastle have not been able to maximise their Saudi connections. Associated-party transaction rules (APT) were made more rigorous in December 2021, before being beefed up again earlier this year in a direct response to Newcastle’s takeover.
Even so, Newcastle declared £6.7m of commercial revenue from firms connected to PIF across 2022-23, up from zero the year previously, which does not include the Sela deal or their tie-up with Saudia, the airline.
Newcastle will be keenly following Manchester City’s case against the Premier League regarding their APT rules. Should City strike any sort of victory, then Newcastle may be the biggest beneficiaries of all.
Off the field
Inside 36 months, a sporting director, CEO, CCO, CFO and COO were appointed to flesh out a skeletal executive team. Yet, over the past four months, the sporting director has changed, the CEO will follow, while Staveley and Ghodoussi have left.
Although the restructure was with long-term progress in mind, it created internal disquiet and led to questions surrounding the club’s direction.
When Staveley and Ghodoussi departed, Eales assumed a more prominent, outward-facing role, with the CEO gaining greater authority. Yet he is now serving his notice following his blood cancer diagnosis.
Darren Eales will be stepping down (Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images)
A search is underway for his successor, who will inherit a sporting director they did not appoint, who himself inherited a head coach he did not appoint. Newcastle are doing things backwards and key relationships are having to be built swiftly, which can present teething problems, as evidenced with Mitchell and Howe.
Howe has been one of the few constants. Even if Unai Emery was the initial choice, Howe has firmly justified his appointment.
His unease during the summer was understandable given his authority was weakened, yet those inside Newcastle insist their intention was to better enable Howe to deliver as head coach. Given the disappointing summer, actions feel necessary to validate those claims.
There is an acknowledgment from senior figures that there has been significant upheaval and the loss of “high-calibre people”. Yet there is also a conviction that Newcastle will continue to attract quality executives, with a top-class CEO the next target.
Jamie Reuben is still heavily involved, attending every match. Howe, Eales and Mitchell have publicly stressed that PIF remain committed and the vision is to be “best in class across everything we do”.
Mitchell has a pivotal role. Eales described Mitchell’s remit as “90 per cent recruitment” — which led to some premature critiquing after a difficult first window — but the sporting director oversees the entire footballing arm.
Ashworth’s five-month gardening leave stint created a partial vacuum. But Mitchell has held extensive meetings with department heads and is looking to turn each into an “elite” operation. Revolutionising scouting and data use — interviews have been held for a new senior recruitment role — are identified for improvement.
In an FFP world, senior figures insist the academy is central to Newcastle’s blueprint. Like Chelsea and Manchester City, Newcastle want to produce players who can populate their first team, reducing transfer expenditure, and be sold for profit. Elliot Anderson saved Newcastle from a prospective points deduction when he was sold for £35million, while Lewis Miley established himself at 17.
Although staff levels have increased by around a third post-takeover and the annual budget has been significantly boosted, Newcastle are still trying to bridge the gap. Steve Harper, Newcastle’s academy director, has struck a positive rapport with Mitchell. Diarmuid O’Carroll has just been poached from St Mirren and, as the fourth under-21s coach in four years, continuity is craved.
If there were any fears Staveley’s departure would see the women’s team overlooked, Mitchell has allayed them. He regularly speaks to Becky Langley, the manager, who was rewarded with a new long-term contract.
Having risen from the fourth tier to the Championship, and after becoming the first third-division side to go fully professional last year, a third-straight promotion is not unthinkable. Although most matches are played at Kingston Park, Newcastle Falcons’ rugby union ground, Newcastle women have attracted 20,000-plus crowds at St James’.
If Staveley’s stated goal of Champions League football by 2027-28 remains challenging, Demi Stokes, the England international defender, was among the impressive summer signings.
Just about every area of the club, infrastructure aside, has improved dramatically, yet this is still a work in progress. Everyone knows what the ultimate goal is, but how they get there and what they will look like is not quite as obvious.
(Top photos: Getty Images; design by Meech Robinson)
