Hope you like chalk.
Nobody wants to hear that March Madness might be significantly less upset-prone than normal, but that’s what the data points to. That’s largely because this season’s No. 1 seeds — Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida — are easily the strongest ever in KenPom’s database (which dates back to 1997), at least according to net rating. Most seasons, we’re lucky if we get two teams with a net rating above 30, and this year, we’ve got five: the aforementioned top seeds, plus Tennessee. To put that in context, the Vols’ net rating of 31.15 would’ve been top two in the nation entering 15 of the past 28 postseasons.
This season, it wasn’t even good enough for a No. 1 seed.
The closest comparable field to this season is probably 2015, when three No. 1 seeds made the Final Four — including undefeated Kentucky — and two of them, Duke and Wisconsin, faced off for the national championship.
What a fitting comparison. Because exactly a decade later, I’m picking another freshman-laden Duke squad to cut down the nets, and to deliver third-year coach Jon Scheyer his first national championship.
Dig a little deeper, and Scheyer’s current squad — which has the second-best net rating in KenPom history, behind only 1999 Duke — has plenty of parallels to Mike Krzyzewski’s fifth and final title team. In 2015, Jahlil Okafor was named ACC Player of the Year and National Freshman of the Year before becoming a top-three draft pick. This season, Cooper Flagg is on pace to repeat those feats, except he’ll be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. (Word around Duke is that Flagg, who sprained his ankle in the quarterfinals, probably could’ve played the rest of the ACC tournament if it were the Sweet 16.) Those Blue Devils had three freshman starters — Okafor, Tyus Jones, and Justise Winslow — who were buoyed by a wily veteran point guard, Quinn Cook. Duke this season? Three freshmen starters — Flagg, Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel — insulated by two veteran point guards, Sion James and Tyrese Proctor. Makeup-wise, kind of an uncanny parallel.
To take that 2015 comparison one step further, that was the last tournament in which three No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, which I’m also predicting. I do think there’s some early-round upset potential, especially on the 4-13 line, so if you’re looking to buck convention, start there. But that said, I’d be seriously surprised if we don’t wind up with four season-long front-runners in April in San Antonio.
Fingers crossed.
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South region
• Yes, Auburn has lost three of its past four, but those defeats came against the Nos. 5 (Tennessee), 6 (Alabama), and 13 (Texas A&M) overall seeds in the field. If that’s why you’re considering fading the Tigers … respectfully, reconsider. But a more realistic concern is Auburn’s recent defensive slippage — Bruce Pearl’s team is 54th in adjusted defensive efficiency since point guard Denver Jones injured his ankle against Kentucky on March 1, per Bart Torvik. But as I wrote a week ago, the only teams I see giving Auburn a true scare are those with a physical, top-25 defense and a dominant offensive rebounding presence. Michigan has the defense (14th in adjusted efficiency) but probably isn’t proficient enough on the glass. (I also don’t trust the Wolverines to take care of the ball — their 14.3 turnovers per game are the 21st most in Division I .) Michigan State, though? Sparty looks more like someone who could give the Tigers trouble. I’m going against the grain by picking Auburn not to make the Final Four, but that’s because …
• Michigan State is one of my favorite teams this season. There’s this sense of inevitability that I can’t quit, and so much I love about Tom Izzo’s team: the 13th-best assist rate in the country; elite transition offense, which averages 16.2 fast-break points per game, the third-most in D-I; a 10-deep rotation with the second-most bench points per game of any tournament team (behind only BYU); and the second-best 3-point defense in the sport. Yes, the 3-point shooting is a disaster, but Sparty winning the Big Ten outright despite it says a lot. Oh, and history’s on my side: The last time Izzo had a team seeded this high, it knocked off the Wooden Award winner (Zion Williamson in 2019) to reach the Final Four. Make it two straight.
• Pat Kelsey and J’Vonne Hadley’s faces said it all during the bracket reveal: Louisville — a great turnaround story — did not expect to be seeded so lowly. After watching the Cardinals up close last week, I don’t blame ’em. I wonder if the committee docked UL because Reyne Smith, its best 3-point shooter, has missed basically all of its past five games with an ankle injury. But he was a game-time decision against Duke on Saturday and should be good to go against turnover-prone Creighton. Louisville doesn’t have the interior presence to hang with Auburn, but winning a game in the NCAA Tournament would be an incredible feat a year after Kenny Payne’s disastrous two-season tenure. The ACC was bad this season, but the league typically overperforms in March; outside of Virginia, which probably shouldn’t have made it, the other four ACC teams in the field last season won their openers.
• UC San Diego, Yale and New Mexico are all viable upset picks, but I feel best about the Ivy League champ, which famously completed a 13-4 upset against Auburn last postseason. But James Jones’ Bulldogs are even better offensively this season, with their combination of defensive rebounding (22nd nationally) and 3-point excellence (ninth nationally). That could well be enough to squeak past Texas A&M, the best offensive rebounding team in the nation with an offense otherwise among the worst in the field — especially if Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps aren’t on fire. As for the others, Marquette’s Kam Jones is the exact sort of guard who has given New Mexico trouble this season, and I’m not dismissing the impact of Lobos coach Richard Pitino making the rounds for high-major interviews. I almost pulled the trigger on UC San Diego, the best mid-major in the tournament, but Michigan’s performance in the Big Ten tournament is tough to overlook, as is its size advantage.
• Iowa State was one of my preseason Final Four picks, but injuries have sent the Cyclones’ season careening off the rails, which stinks. TJ Otzelberger announcing Sunday that second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert is out makes it harder to have faith in ISU rediscovering its early-season form.
East region
• Duke’s path to the second weekend is the easiest of the No. 1 seeds — and it’s probably the easiest Final Four path, too. The Blue Devils avoided Michigan State and St. John’s as their No. 2 seeds — the latter of which would’ve had a decided home-court advantage in Newark — and instead drew an Alabama team that may or may not have forward Grant Nelson, who injured his knee in the SEC tournament. Old frenemy Caleb Love awaits in the Sweet 16 — seriously, we haven’t seen him play Duke enough? — but really, this is a fortuitous draw. Of all the No. 1 seeds, I’d bet Duke is the most widely picked to make it to San Antonio.
• About Alabama. Can the Crimson Tide beat Duke, or anyone else in their path? Absolutely. But do you trust them to? I don’t, and Bama’s draw did nothing to discourage my pre-bracket belief that it wouldn’t make a repeat run to the Final Four. For as potent as Nate Oats’ offense can be (fourth nationally in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom), there are too many loose ends. Oats’ late-game decision-making against Tennessee on March 1 was the biggest reason Alabama lost, and the Tide’s propensity for turnovers spooks me, too. Alabama’s defensive improvement in last season’s tournament was the biggest reason the Crimson Tide made their first Final Four in program history, but this team has allowed 90 points or more in five of its past nine games (albeit all to Top 25 teams). A round-of-32 matchup against Saint Mary’s would be the ultimate contrast in pace: Alabama is first nationally in tempo, while the Gaels are 359th (out of 364 D-I teams). Saint Mary’s isn’t a great 3-point shooting team, but it’s unlikely to go 0-for-16 as it did against Gonzaga in the WCC tournament; I’m sticking my neck out and picking the biggest upset of my bracket.
• Pray to the basketball gods that we get BYU versus Wisconsin in the round of 32. BYU has been molten lava hot the past month, grading out as Torvik’s fifth-best team in the country over its past 10 games, largely because of an offense that’s ranked No. 4 nationally during that stretch. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has had a top-15 offense all season, largely keyed by All-American-in-the-making John Tonje, the best transfer in the sport. Wisconsin’s defense is the better of the two, and the Badgers being the best free-throw shooting team in America (82.8 percent) should swing at least one late-game grind their way, but if the Cougars are clicking offensively, none of that matters. I lean toward Wisconsin, but narrowly.
Midwest region
• My pre-bracket plan was always to fade Purdue early. It has lost six of its past nine games, with its interior defense being exposed. Seeing High Point’s chyron pop up across from the Boilermakers made that an easy decision. Purdue’s defense over those last nine games? A horrid 196th nationally in adjusted efficiency, per Torvik; opponents are making 63.3 percent of their 2s during that stretch, which is second-worst in all of D-I. No, thank you! (Purdue guard Fletcher Loyer injuring his elbow in the Big Ten tournament doesn’t help the Boilers’ shallow depth, either.) High Point is dancing for the first time in program history because of Alan Huss’ top-25 offense, which just so happens to be the ninth-best 2-point shooting team in the field. Smells like a mismatch. High Point is the easiest upset pick in the region. Everyone knows about Fairleigh Dickinson, but altogether, Purdue has lost in the first round four times since 2015, including three times as a top-five seed.
• McNeese and Utah State will also be popular upset picks, but I’m more confident in the latter, which had easily the best offense in the Mountain West and drew a UCLA team that hasn’t impressed lately; the Bruins are 1-3 against tournament teams since February, with the lone victory being a two-point win over Michigan State during the Spartans’ ill-fated West Coast trip. I wouldn’t take either to win more than one game, but of the two, I’ll take the team whose coach isn’t actively interviewing for other jobs. (I’ll believe NC State has the NIL coffers to hire Will Wade when I see it.)
• Illinois is the most unpredictable team in the field because of its shooting variance. At times, Brad Underwood’s team, which is 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency, looks like it can score with anybody. But at others, it looks like there’s a lid on the rim. I can see the Illini winning beating Kentucky, given the Cats’ injury woes — Jaxson Robinson is out for the season, and Lamont Butler’s nagging shoulder injury is cause for concern — but their volatility won’t let me commit beyond that.
• Anything other than Tennessee and Houston — two of the top-five teams, and seeds, in the country — meeting in the Elite Eight would be a surprise. No disrespect to Rick Barnes, one of the last great coaches of his era, but Houston is just better. This is Kelvin Sampson’s best (and healthiest) team since the Cougars made the 2021 Final Four. The biggest difference between this Houston team and past iterations? This group is the best 3-point shooting team in the NCAA Tournament, making 39.8 percent of its triples. Three Cougars have made at least 50 3s this season: L.J. Cryer, who won the ’21 title at Baylor and is attempting to become the first player in D-I history to win national titles at separate schools; Emanuel Sharp, who averaged 20.7 points last week in the Big 12 tournament; and Milos Uzan, the Oklahoma transfer who has arguably been this team’s best player since February began. Tennessee would be favored over probably 63 teams in the field, but as it showed all season — including against Florida in the SEC title game — the Vols don’t quite have the offensive firepower to make it to San Antonio.
West region
• Welcome to the Region of Death. With Florida, St. John’s, Texas Tech and Maryland, a third of KenPom’s top-12 teams reside in the West — and that doesn’t include UConn, Kansas, Missouri or Drake, which has maybe the best chance of any double-digit seed to make the Sweet 16. To quote Jon Rothstein, this really is the epitome of brutality.
• Memphis and UConn are both different teams from when I watched them in November in Maui, when the Tigers dealt the Huskies the first of three consecutive losses that made it clear a three-peat was unlikely. But Memphis hasn’t been nearly as potent offensively lately as it was in accruing nonconference wins over UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss. Tyrese Hunter, Penny Hardaway’s best 3-point shooter, missed the American championship game with a left foot injury, and his uncertain status makes it tough to pick a team already showing cracks. UConn is as good offensively as ever (14th in adjusted efficiency), but the Huskies’ inability to defend without fouling makes them hard to trust beyond winning a likely shootout against Oklahoma, which also has a top-25 offense behind star freshman Jeremiah Fears. Regardless, I don’t see either making the second weekend.
• Any discussion of Drake, see CJ Moore’s analysis. He’s been driving the Ben McCollum hype train for over a year. Choo choo!
• My preseason bold prediction was that St. John’s would make the Elite Eight, which I’ve clung to ever since, especially since the Johnnies have lost only once since the calendar flipped to 2025. A round-of-32 matchup against Bill Self pits two of the three active coaches with multiple national titles against one another, and the best 2/3 combination awaits thereafter against Texas Tech. Like Michigan State, there’s something inevitable about the Red Storm, who are more than just their No. 1 defense. Big East Player of the Year RJ Luis is capable of taking over any game … and he might not even be the best offensive player on the team, depending on which version of Kadary Richmond shows up. I’m not sure even a bulldozer could flatten Pitino’s team. Texas Tech was going to be one of my sleeper Elite Eight teams, but dance with who brought you. The only reason I don’t have Pitino’s squad making the Final Four is because …
• Florida looks like the best team in the country right now. Todd Golden’s guard triumvirate of Alijah Martin, Will Richard and Walter Clayton Jr. might be the best in the field. Big man Alex Condon has also hit a new gear recently. Condon is arguably the best screener in the sport, and his playmaking atop the key is as big a reason as any that UF has the nation’s No. 1 offense in adjusted efficiency. The Gators have everything you want in a national title team: shooting, size, depth, offensive rebounding, ball security, length, experience — you name it. Since getting smacked by Tennessee by 20 on Feb. 1, Florida has beaten Auburn (on the road), Alabama twice, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Missouri, with an average margin of victory of 14.7 points. Pick against UF at your own risk.
(Photo of Cooper Flagg: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
