After years of Concacaf being mostly dominated by just the United States and Mexico, the long-established hierarchy in the region is shifting.
Since 2019, elite talent has fueled Canada’s rapid climb toward the global stage. Canada can now consider itself among the best teams in North and Central America. And a rapidly changing political climate – which has pitted two longstanding allies against each other – could impact the relationships at the top of Concacaf’s pecking order, too.
On the field, recent stumbles from Mexico – including a sluggish performance at the 2024 Copa América and group stage exit from the 2022 World Cup – have changed the way many look at Concacaf’s top tier, regardless – so much so that the U.S., should it beat Panama Thursday night, and Canada feels like a potentially juicier Concacaf Nations League final on Sunday rather than the oft-expected showdown between the U.S. and Mexico.
So considering everything – the players, the story lines, the recent results, the current political climate, etc. – does U.S.-Canada have a proper claim as the best rivalry in the region? Or does that remain a U.S.-Mexico domain?
As the semifinals of the Nations League beckon outside Los Angeles, The Athletic’s Joshua Kloke and Felipe Cardenas discuss the three 2026 World Cup co-hosts and how they intertwine at this current stage.
Kloke: Canada-U.S. could become more important than Mexico-U.S. because of what’s happening on and off the field.
But let’s start with what’s happening on the field: It’s difficult to deny that Canada is firmly entrenched among the best teams in the region and no longer an afterthought.
Canada topped the Concacaf 2022 World Cup qualifying table and went further than any team from the region in Copa América last summer. The Canadians then bested the U.S. in a friendly months later while a Mexican side looked more intent on fouling Canada than playing them in their own friendly draw days later.
Their high-end talent might be better than on both teams, too. Canada brought the most European-based players of the three to the Nations League finals. Mix in the fact that Canada and the U.S. offer coaches who have coached in the UEFA Champions League. If you’re the United States, how could you not look at Canada as the more stringent opposition? And how could you not see Canada as the rival that would draw a little more of your attention?
But it’s not just what’s happening on the field that could change the course of this rivalry.
Throughout the history of international soccer, some of the most fervent rivalries are heavy with political connotations and implications: The Netherlands and Germany. Serbia and Croatia. El Salvador and Honduras. The current political climate between Canada and the U.S. could incidentally bring the rivalry to unprecedented heights.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada and turn it into the “51st state” have flipped relations between the two longstanding allies. The threats and the new, U.S.-imposed tariffs have led to a trade war. Politicians not accustomed to speaking about international relations have joined in on the vitriol. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has called Trump’s tariffs the “craziest idea” and was caught on a hot mic saying he at first welcomed Trump’s presidency before “the guy pulled out the knife and f**king yanked it in us.”
The Canadian men’s national team is looking at its opponent to the south a little differently these days, too. In February, Wisconsin-born Canada head coach Jesse Marsch called Trump’s threats to annex Canada “unsettling and frankly insulting.”
“If I have one message to our president, it’s lay off the ridiculous rhetoric about Canada being the 51st state,” Marsch said. “As an American. I’m ashamed of the arrogance and disregard that we’ve shown one of our historically oldest, strongest and most loyal allies.”
Canada defender Alistair Johnston told The Athletic that the Nations League finals represents a chance for Canada to play “arguably our biggest political opponent in the world right now.”
The fiercest international soccer rivalries can rely heavily on emotion throughout games. Emotion will no longer be in short supply when Canada plays the U.S. Canadian fans likely wouldn’t boo the Mexican national anthem. But as evidenced in rinks across Canada ahead of NHL games, Canadians are not afraid to boo the Star Spangled Banner as a means to protest Trump’s tariffs.
“I have family that are constantly updating me about (Trump’s threats), the stress that this has put on people. Just the not knowing … it is really difficult when you’re not sure, is it going to happen, is it not? What is this going to affect? How’s the economy going to look? I’ve seen how much disdain and distrust it can put in people, but also how unifying it is,” Johnston said.
Cardenas: While Marsch remained open and honest about his comments on Trump, on Tuesday Canada’s American coach looked to place the focus back on the pitch. He admitted that politics isn’t talked about inside the Canada locker room, but I have a hard time believing that. Johnston’s remarks paint the picture clear as day. The players are well-informed and now view a match against the U.S. as an opportunity to make an even grander statement.
Now, it’s important to note that Trump’s rhetoric does not necessarily represent the U.S. players’ feelings, and in the past, that rhetoric has actually been used by teams as a coming-together moment, not one to inflame tensions. Go back to that 2016 World Cup qualifier in Columbus between the U.S. and Mexico, when the two teams stood arm-in-arm for a pre-match photo in the aftermath of the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
Still, the off-field realities have definitely made their way into the Nations League story line; however, I’m not entirely sure if this type of stress and motivation will hurt or help Canada. Marsch wants his men to act not only like they belong, but that they’ve been here before; that Canada should be respected as a hard-nosed footballing foe, not as a kid being bullied in the schoolyard. I’m very intrigued to see how this all plays out. I’d remind the Canadians that they have to beat Mexico first (and that the U.S. must beat Panama), in order for that final to materialize.
What’s the general consensus in Canada about all of this?
USA’s Folarin Balogun and Canada’s Moise Bombito in a September 2024 friendly (Photo by Tim Vizer/AFP/Getty Images)
Kloke: While it’s difficult to paint 40 million people with the same brush, right now, the view from Canada is a simple one.
Keeping a low-key presence is a proud national pastime. We’d rather host a party than ask for an invitation, or become the life of the party people gossip about the next day.
But I can think of very few things in my lifetime that have stirred a national conversation towards negative tones like the last few months. The discussion of annexation is one that lingers like a dark cloud over the country. Usually, Canadians are comfortable just letting those dark clouds come and go (Have you ever spent a day in our most naturally stunning city, Vancouver?), but these past few months have turned us all into the old man yelling at the cloud.
So it’s simple: the discussion has stirred up a potent mix of anger, fear and patriotism.
And in a peace-loving country like Canada (it’s us, gladly accepting the award for least amount of wars ever fought on our home soil), very few events lead to overt patriotism like sports.
I was much younger when Canada played the U.S. in the men’s hockey gold medal game of the 2010 Winter Olympics. Do you know where I watched Canada celebrate seconds after Sidney Crosby cemented himself beside Terry Fox in Canadian sports lore?
Standing on top of a table at a Vancouver bar, stomping my feet into wood. Those are the raw emotions beating the U.S. can bring out of Canadians. Don’t just ask me, ask the other 16 million or so people who watched that game in Canada. Nearly half of the country at the time tuned in to make it the most watched program in Canadian television history.
Not the moon landing, not coverage of a war, not a national funeral: Canada beating the U.S. at a sport.
And it happened again last month at the 4 Nations Face-Off. A wild start to Canada’s first game against the U.S. featured American players instigating three fights within the first nine seconds of the round-robin game.
Canada got the last laugh, beating the U.S. in overtime of the gold medal game.
And, yes, Canada’s men’s soccer players took note. They may even bring a little of what they saw into their own final, should they get that far.
“When we won, there was nothing quite like it. I was watching in Scotland and jumping up for joy. My poor American fiancee wasn’t as happy, but even she knew that was more important for the Canadians than it was for the Americans,” Johnson said.
So look, if I can speak for Canada, we were happy staying out of the conversation. You dragged us into it. And if you’re going to drag Canada into the fight that plays out in a sporting event, you’re going to see how much it matters.
Cardenas: Well said. There is no denying that the current state of affairs from a diplomatic standpoint have added fuel to the fire ahead of Nations League final four. If I had a Canadian passport, I’d pack my boxing gloves, too.
I’ll add this: USA-Canada in hockey can be compared to the great soccer rivalries around the world, like Brazil-Argentina, Germany-Netherlands and England-Scotland. However, what makes a true rivalry is when both sides truly loathe each other. Not to generalize, but before the 2022 World Cup qualifying cycle, most fans of the U.S. men’s squad expected to beat Canada. The gap between the two senior sides has closed of late, but Canada, a team that snapped a 36-year World Cup qualifying drought in 2022, isn’t the country that the Americans measure themselves against. Canada won the most recent meeting 2-1 in a friendly last September. All time, the U.S. leads the series against Canada 17-12-12.
From a North American soccer perspective, no rivalry is more polarizing than USA-Mexico. It’s the game that has come to define the region at the international level. The matchup between the Americans and the self-proclaimed Kings of Concacaf has for decades been conflictive, toxic and rife with geopolitical undertones. To no surprise, fans from both sides have crossed lines that should not be part of sport.
The U.S. is the global power, but on the pitch, Mexicans have always viewed themselves as the superior nation. In recent years, and dating back to 2016, anti-Mexico rhetoric from President Trump has added an unfortunate filter to what should be a celebrated duel between two old rivals. The Americans have gone from underdogs against Mexico to owners of the series. If Canada can do the same against the USMNT, Concacaf will get very interesting.
Tyler Adams and Hirving Lozano get into it during the 2024 Nations League final. (Photo by Click Thompson/Getty Images)
Kloke: Perhaps then that’s why this Nations League finals means so much to this Canadian team. They want that rivalry against the U.S. to matter that much more.
Multiple people in and around the team have told me their stated goal is to win this thing, and specifically, beat the U.S. The loss in the 2023 final lingers.
I’ll go back to Johnston.
“Two years ago in Las Vegas, we were preparing for that final and I said, ‘Yeah, I think we’re ready.’ But I think deep down there maybe wasn’t that confidence that we truly were (ready). Now I look at this, two years later. I think that competitively, (Marsch) thinks this is the best team that’s ever been assembled in Canadian national team football history. I think he’s right. So we’re ready for it on the pitch. Then you add in a little extra for what it means off the pitch. It’s a perfect storm in a way,” Johnston said.
The U.S. has won all three iterations of this tournament. And so if Canada wins Nations League over the United States, could that be the turning point that makes this rivalry the rivalry in the region?
Cardenas: I’d say yes. If Canada and the U.S. make the final and Marsch is the one lifting the trophy, well, that could establish Marsch’s villain role among USMNT fans. To win on U.S. soil ahead of this historic World Cup in 2026 would truly propel and energize the Canadians leading up to the tournament. Canada needs a statement win for the next World Cup. They played well at the Copa América, but trophies outweigh potential.
There’s juice in this rivalry. The tension is building. USA-Canada in soccer may not have the deep history, the blood, the sweat and the tears of USA-Mexico, but don’t sleep on it either.
(Top photo: Louis Grasse/Getty Images)
