With about three weeks left in the NBA regular season, much of the Western Conference postseason field is far from settled.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have all but officially clinched the No. 1 seed. Behind them, four teams (the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies) appear to be jostling for three spots to secure home-court advantage in the first round. And behind them, three teams (the Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers and Minnesota Timberwolves) are fighting for the sixth and final guaranteed playoff spot.
A bad week by any one of these squads could upend things even further. (Check out the full league standings here.) With that said, The Athletic NBA staff decided it was a good time to assess what lies ahead, how those teams have fared against one another and more as the season winds down:
Race for home court in Round 1
Houston Rockets
Record entering weekend: 45-25
Record against the others: 11-6 (1-0 vs. LAL, 3-1 vs. MEM, 1-0 vs. DEN, 2-2 vs. MIN, 1-3 vs. GS, 3-0 vs. LAC)
Working in their favor: Momentum, leverage and a hunger for more. The Rockets are the hottest team in the NBA, winners of eight straight, and there’s no team playing better two-way basketball right now. According to Cleaning the Glass, Houston is first in point differential, second in offense and first in defense over the last two weeks. The Rockets also hold a tiebreaker over the Grizzlies, which will come in handy once the dust settles. The Lakers, a game behind, have the third-toughest remaining schedule.
Working against them: The finish and lack of know-how. Houston plays the Nuggets and Lakers twice, and also will play the Thunder, Warriors and Clippers. The Rockets’ youth has gotten them this far, but veteran teams possess an advantage in the weeks leading up the playoffs that Houston just hasn’t experienced yet. Denver, Memphis and the Lakers are all well-versed in seeding races and matchup hunting and can essentially work the system in their favor; the Rockets are just happy to be here after years of struggles.
Additional thoughts: Houston is in a great spot. If fourth-year guard Jalen Green continues on his current trajectory — averaging 27.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.4 assists over the last five games — it’s hard to identify their ceiling. Amen Thompson has been absent for the majority of Houston’s winning streak, and his return will only reinvigorate a feisty team with plans to disrupt the status quo. The Rockets are now a top-10 shooting team since the break after languishing at the bottom for the first part of the season, and that gives them the inside-outside balance elite teams crave. This year is already a success no matter what happens in April, but securing home court (at least in the first round) should determine how far the Rockets go. — Kelly Iko
Los Angeles Lakers
Record entering weekend: 43-26
Record against the others: 12-7 (0-1 vs. HOU, 2-2 vs. DEN, 2-1 vs. MEM, 3-0 vs. GS, 3-1 vs. LAC, 2-2 vs. MIN)
Working in their favor: The Lakers have the third-best record in the NBA (tied with the Boston Celtics) since Jan. 15. They have the second-best defense over that span, with JJ Redick and his coaching staff designing impressive opponent-specific defensive game plans nightly. They’re 11-6 with Luka Dončic on the roster, with statement wins over the Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, LA Clippers and Minnesota Timberwolves. Dončić and LeBron James are the league’s best duo when healthy, and with James seemingly returning soon from his left groin strain, the Lakers are well-positioned to pick up where they left off before his injury.
Working against them: As mentioned above, the Lakers had the third-toughest remaining schedule entering Thursday’s play, with matchups against Oklahoma City (twice), Houston (twice), Memphis and Golden State. Eight of their final 12 games are on the road. They’re also managing an array of injuries to James, Dončić, Austin Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent. They will likely prioritize health over seeding. In a West race that’ll likely come down to the final day, the Lakers are just trying to get to the finish line in one piece.
Additional thoughts: Ultimately, the Lakers aren’t concerned with their seeding. They’d prefer to be the No. 2 seed than, say, the No. 5 seed, but they’re confident they can beat anyone in a seven-game series — with or without home-court advantage. Outside of playing Oklahoma City or Denver on the road, the Lakers will likely enter any West series they play as the favorites given their second-half run when (relatively) healthy. James is one of the best playoff performers of all-time, and Dončić has amassed a remarkable playoff resume through his first six seasons, with his teams continually overachieving. Both superstars are matchup nightmares for even the best perimeter defenders. Keeping them healthy and rested is the priority down the stretch. — Jovan Buha
Denver Nuggets
Record entering weekend: 44-26
Record against the others: 7-9 (0-1 vs. HOU, 2-2 vs. LAL, 1-1 vs. MEM, 2-0 vs. GS, 2-2 vs. LAC, 0-3 vs. MIN)
Working in their favor: Before a difficult closing stretch, the Nuggets get the Trail Blazers, Bulls, Bucks and Jazz in four of their next five games. Sure, the Bucks are a hard team to play against, but if the Nuggets are playing serious basketball, they should get those four games. The Nuggets also have to get star players, Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, healthy. But the schedule breaking their way over the next week should help.
Working against them: The lack of depth and the lack of separation in the standings likely means the Nuggets will have to play their best players heavy minutes down the stretch. That could lead to playoff fatigue — similar to last season, when Denver ran out of gas in Game 7 of the second round against Minnesota. The postseason will be about matchups for the Nuggets. Denver fans should want the Nuggets to see either the Warriors or Rockets in the first round. They match up well against both. The Lakers or Timberwolves pose issues.
Additional thoughts: The Nuggets are capable of either getting all the way to the conference finals, and maybe beyond, or going out in the first round. Much depends on which level of defense shows up. The past week was a perfect example of that. On Monday against Golden State, the Nuggets defended like demons. On Wednesday in a loss to the Lakers, the Nuggets didn’t defend at all. Two years ago, Denver was the best defensive team in the league, which led to a championship. The Nuggets are always going to have a puncher’s chance because of Jokić. But he can’t be the only thing Denver has going if it wants to compete for another title. — Tony Jones
Memphis Grizzlies
Record entering weekend: 43-27
Record against the others: 6-10 (1-3 vs. HOU, 1-2 vs. LAL, 1-1 vs. DEN, 1-2 vs. GS, 0-2 vs. LAC, 2-0 vs. MIN)
Working in their favor: The Grizzlies have one of the deepest rosters in the league, and it should help them get to the finish line without putting too much pressure on their stars. With Santi Aldama recently returning from a calf injury, the Grizzlies’ bench unit will include Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr., Brandon Clarke, Luke Kennard, Vince Williams Jr., GG Jackson and Jay Huff when everyone is healthy. The hope is that this depth will help Memphis sneak out a few games down the stretch while other teams rest some of their main guys.
Working against them: The Grizzlies have a brutal stretch of games to end the season. Among their final 12 games, they play on the road against the Clippers, Thunder, Pistons and Nuggets while they also have home games against the Lakers, Celtics, Warriors and Timberwolves. Coming out of this gauntlet with home-court advantage won’t be easy.
Additional thoughts: The Grizzlies are currently on a five-game road trip, and they’ve started it with losses in Sacramento and Portland that weren’t particularly close. Ja Morant missed both games with left hamstring soreness, which is worth monitoring. The Grizzlies aren’t playing their best ball going into the most important part of the schedule. As always, Morant’s presence changes the dynamic for this team in a major way, and his eventual return should provide the boost Memphis needs going into the final weeks of the season. Still, the Grizzlies’ defense has continued to spiral over the past few months, and their last win over a team that’s currently .500 or better was when they beat the Milwaukee Bucks on Feb. 2. While there’s still enough time for the Grizzlies to regroup and hit their stride, things have been rough lately. — William Guillory
With Jimmy Butler in the fold, the Warriors you see now are not the same team from earlier this season. (Kelley L. Cox / Imagn Images)
Race for No. 6 seed
Golden State Warriors
Record entering weekend: 41-29
Record against the others: 8-11 (3-1 vs. HOU, 0-3 vs. LAL, 0-2 vs. DEN, 2-1 vs. MEM, 0-3 vs. LAC, 3-1 vs. MIN)
Working in their favor: This next stretch of schedule and some momentum. The Warriors face the Hawks, Heat, Pelicans and Spurs in their next four. They’ll be favored each night and will even have an extra level of motivation in Jimmy Butler’s return to Miami. Butler has been great since his arrival and, in unison, so have the Warriors: They are 16-3 with a top-five offense and top-five defense. The best case for them securing a top-six seed is an expectation they’ll maintain this level with Butler around.
Working against them: The need to pace older bodies. Stephen Curry was already managing knee tendinitis and an achy back when he left Thursday’s game against the Toronto Raptors after a hard fall. He underwent an MRI for what the team was calling a pelvic injury. Draymond Green had a calf issue a month back. Butler missed the Sixers loss with back spasms. The Warriors’ three best players are 37, 35 and 35. They have intentions of playing until June. To get there, they can’t overuse the three and, because of it, they could be in danger of an extra loss or two the next month.
Additional thoughts: This group understands the danger of the Play-In as well as anybody. They’ve been eliminated from it twice. They’ve talked about the added benefit of the extra rest before a playoff series. They’re not only desperate to keep the sixth seed but quietly on the hunt for the fifth if the Grizzlies falter. They play in Memphis with a chance to clinch the tiebreaker in early April. The Clippers game on the final day of the regular season could loom large, but they’re intent on ensuring a top-six seed is already locked up at that point. The Warriors have set a soft target of 50 wins internally. — Anthony Slater
LA Clippers
Record entering weekend: 39-30
Record against teams contending for No. 6 seed: 8-11 (0-3 vs. HOU, 1-3 vs. LAL, 2-2 DEN, 2-0 vs. MEM, 3-0 vs. GS, 0-3 vs. MIN)
Working in their favor: Being unbeaten against the Warriors.
Working against them: Being winless against the Timberwolves.
Additional thoughts: We are headed for a collision course on April 13, the last day of the regular season, when the Clippers visit the Warriors. The Clippers haven’t faced the Warriors with Butler, but they aren’t worried about other teams with the way they are lining up. The Clippers have won seven of eight games and, for the first time since the trade deadline, are finally healthy. The Clippers just need to somehow be able to tie Golden State without being involved in any three-way scenarios and they can steal the sixth seed. For the Clippers, it’s all about getting to and through April with those players healthy. — Law Murray
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record entering weekend: 40-31
Record against the others: 11-9 (2-2 vs. HOU, 2-2 vs. LAL, 3-0 vs. DEN, 0-2 vs. MEM, 1-3 vs. GS, 3-0 vs. LAC)
Working in their favor: The schedule. Six of the Wolves’ last 11 games are against teams under .500, including dates with the Pelicans, Sixers and Jazz. The Wolves have had some bad losses this season against teams with losing records, but the schedule shakes out favorably for them to finish strong.
Working against them: All those losses to bad teams or in close games earlier this season. The Wolves lost at home to Washington, Miami without Butler, Milwaukee without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, Indiana without four starters including Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, and New Orleans, just to name a few. Their 25 losses in clutch time lead the league, with Golden State’s 18 the next closest from a team that is in the playoff mix. Win just five of those, and Minnesota is the No. 5 seed right now.
Additional thoughts: As difficult as this season has been, as frustrating as it is to see Karl-Anthony Towns playing so well in New York, the Wolves were showing signs of peaking at the right time before their recent stumble. They won eight in a row and 13 straight when Julius Randle was in the lineup and had a top-10 offense and defense. That is usually the mark of a good team. They have also lost seven games to teams that are outside of the Play-In Tournament field. Good luck figuring out how far they can go. Coach Chris Finch put it best: “We are a team that can beat anyone and be beaten by anyone.” — Jon Krawczynski
(Top photo of Kawhi Leonard and Luka Dončić: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
