Bills post-free agency mock draft: Which needs remain after an active signing period?

With free agency winding down to a near standstill, all offseason attention has shifted toward the 2025 NFL Draft. The Bills filled many needs over the last few weeks, either through external free agents, contract extensions or re-signing some of their own.

All that movement has reset some of what they could be looking for in the draft with their 10 selections. And in the week after the new league year began, The Athletic’s beat reporters all joined together for a first-round mock draft exercise — with trading very much encouraged.

As the Bills’ representative, I had them make their first-round pick, attempting to channel general manager Brandon Beane, but there was much more to it than that. There was tracking falling values mid-draft with the team’s needs in mind, sensing which teams are trying to make a move, reaching out to teams about the idea of moving up and negotiating deals to move up within reason.

And along with it, I’ll finish out the rest of the Bills draft with picks through their final selection in the sixth round.

Let’s head inside the Bills’ mock draft war room.

Goals heading in

Earlier in the week, we took a deeper look into the updated roster and how it could influence the upcoming NFL Draft. With that in mind, here was where my head was at from a Bills perspective.

Tracking need positions — As long as Beane has been the GM, the Bills have spent their top draft resources on their top needs. The only time they slightly pivoted was when they drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid when they needed a receiver, though they justified that pick by viewing him as a pass-catcher who could play snaps alongside Dawson Knox. With that in mind, the four positions that seem their most likely targets are wide receiver, edge rusher, one-technique defensive tackle and cornerback.

Not reaching for a need — This is where the term I’ve used since Beane arrived is important. While the ‘best player available’ idea is a virtuous philosophy, it simply isn’t a practical one they’ve employed in the early rounds. The more accurate approach, given their history, is ‘need meets value.’ Especially in the back of the first round, pairing one of their primary needs with a player commensurate with the pick is the usual lean.

Monitor trading up, but within reason — By this point in Beane’s history, we know fully well that the Bills will trade up to take a player at a need position when they feel a drop-off is approaching with some of their top needs. However, especially with some key free agents coming due in the next two seasons, even though they have the ammo to get into the end of the Top 10, it doesn’t mean they should or will. With seven picks on Day Three, it gives them some flexibility to move one of those or even one of their second-round picks if the player is good enough.

With that established, let’s get to the draft.

Inside the Bills mock draft war room

By design, the approach was to sit around and watch the first 15 picks of the draft to see how the board fell, with an eye on any falling values at positions of need. Those top 15 choices are generally out of reach without sacrificing two of the Bills’ next four picks in 2025, or a substantial 2026 draft asset.

Here’s how the top 15 went.

There is one name missing who stands out at a major position of need — Georgia edge rusher and linebacker Jalon Walker. By most accounts, Walker is one of the top five or ten best players in the draft. And even though the Bills haven’t drafted anyone like him as a pass rusher before due to his size and lack of length, his unique defensive potential is worth checking into. The value is too good not to at least get a temperature check from the team on the clock.

The Cardinals hold No. 16, so I asked if they’d move down. I would have offered Nos. 30 and 56 to move up to No. 16 to get one of the best players available at a position of need.

The Cardinals representative, Doug Haller, responded, “I was thinking about it, but I think I’m going to stay.”

No surprise. They then took Walker.

Without any other falling top-ten values at need positions and no third-round pick to trade, it’s time to take a backseat again until the Bills become within range to package No. 30 and No. 109 together, with, at most, one of their late fifth-round picks tacked on. That range doesn’t start until No. 24, but the next five picks will inform whether or not to start having conversations to move up.

Let’s again sit back and monitor how the next handful of picks go.

As the picks started to roll in, another edge rusher went at No. 17 and then another at No. 20. Both one-technique defensive tackle prospects in consideration for the first round went at No. 11 and No. 21. With only one falling value at boundary wide receiver (Matthew Golden) and only one falling value at edge rusher that suits their usual prototype (Donovan Ezeiruaku) available, it’s time to reach out.

I approached Texans representative Mike Jones with an offer of Nos. 30 and 109 for No. 25 if the board played out the way the Bills hoped. The Texans’ response was, “I’ll consider this.” The Vikings at No. 24 would likely need an additional fifth-round pick on top of No. 109, so I’d only reach out if one of Golden or Ezeiruaku goes off the board. Cornerback, because there are so many late 1st to 2nd round talents available, would be the fallback plan at No. 30 if both of those players are gone.

Golden’s gone, leaving Ezeiruaku as the lone potential trade-up target. Not only is there a drop-off at the position for what the Bills usually like in edge rushers after him, but the Bills caught wind that both the Lions (No. 28) and Eagles (No. 32) were sniffing around a move-up, with both being clear threats based on team need and drafting history to move up for Ezeiruaku.

I messaged Vikings representative Alec Lewis with the same offer as the one sent to the Texans. Nos. 30 and 109 for No. 24, and was prepared to include a fifth-round pick if they countered. The Vikings responded. “Working on something with [the Eagles], if he backs out, I’m trading with you.”

A couple of minutes later, the Vikings announced they sent No. 24 to the Eagles for Nos. 32, 161 and a 2026 third-round pick. I couldn’t/wouldn’t compete with that.

The Eagles took Georgia safety Malaki Starks at No. 24, a relative surprise given their aggressive move up.

With Ezeiruaku still available and the Lions lurking, it was time to check back in with the Texans and see if they’d do the deal.

The Texans brought back bad news. “I’ve gotta stay put,” they responded and took Ohio State offensive tackle Josh Simmons at No. 25.

I approached the Rams representative, Jourdan Rodrigue, with a similar offer, though with a slight kickback to try to help with the negotiation. Nos. 30 and 109 for Nos. 26 and 202.

The Rams responded. “Can you give me a future 3?”

All the while, it seeped out that the Lions were in communication with the Rams for that pick as well.

I declined the future third-round pick request but sent an improved offer from the original. Nos. 30 and 109 for No. 26, removing the pick and sacrificing some value while knowing the Bills still had six Day Three picks in the pocket to replenish a move back up to the late third or fourth-round pick.

“Deal,” the Rams said. Time to send in the card.

The pick at No. 26: Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, BC

The Ezeiruaku selection makes sense for multiple reasons. First, the Bills are getting a player who, in most draft years, would have gone earlier than the late first round. However, because the defensive line group is so strong, it’s a great value at No. 26. Second, they have usually coveted length, explosiveness and production at the position, and Ezeiruaku brings all of that with 34-inch-long arms, great testing scores in explosive metrics and 30 sacks in college — 16.5 of which in 2024.

Third, it checks the box for their usual first-year development plan. The group of Greg Rousseau, Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa and Michael Hoecht on the team in 2025 will allow Ezeiruaku to start slow in more of a pass-rush specialist role and work his way to more playing time as the season progresses. Then, with only Rousseau and Hoecht under contract for 2026 from that top four, Ezeiruaku would have the path to start next year. On top of that, Ezeiruaku’s cost-controlled rookie deal and fifth-year option would expire after 2029, the same year as Rousseau’s extension runs through, pairing the two potential long-term starters nicely.

And, by the way, the Lions revealed they would have taken Ezeiruaku had they completed their more complex trade offer with the Rams. Mission accomplished, without sacrificing much of the rest of the Bills draft.

Let’s get to the rest of their picks.

Picks remaining: Nos. 56, 62, 132, 169, 170, 173, 177, 206

The pick at No. 56: Alfred Collins, DT, Texas

The Bills did not address their one-technique defensive tackle role at all in free agency and don’t have a potential plan in place there past 2025. That’s where Collins comes in as the long-term answer for their starter next to Ed Oliver. Collins is well-suited to the one-technique role for the early down and short-yardage situations. Collins carries the reputation of being a stout run-defender, which is exactly what they need. If he can develop into a three-down threat over time, it would be the difference in raising the overall ceiling of his career and this particular second-round pick. Even if he doesn’t, taking a Day 2 draft swing on a key early down role is a necessary evil that the Bills haven’t done since 2018.

The pick at No. 62: Darien Porter, CB, Iowa State

It would be an outright surprise, at least at this point, if the Bills do not use one of their first three picks on a cornerback. The fit of the long-armed, speedy Porter into the Bills defense is an extremely compelling one. At 24 years old, he’s on the older side for a prospect, and that’s part of the reason he lasted until the end of the second round. However, his zone coverage ability combined with his ball skills could turn him into an immediate starter in 2025. Porter and Dane Jackson would form the competition for the starting job this summer. Even if Porter loses the job to begin the season, at worst, he would be their No. 3 cornerback and can immediately help on special teams to secure his game-day role.

Trade!

Buffalo trades Nos. 169 and 170 to Washington for No. 128

The pick at No. 128: Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State

The Bills have four receivers locked in for the 2025 season and could carry as many as six this year if Laviska Shenault wins the returner job. That leaves room for the Bills to use a pick on a receiver, and in Horton, they get a tall (6-foot-2) and explosive boundary receiver who can separate and challenge a defense vertically. The Bills don’t have anyone in their receiver room like him.

The pick at No. 132: Caleb Rogers, G/T, Texas Tech

With both starting center Connor McGovern and left guard David Edwards due to become a free agent in 2026, and right guard O’Cyrus Torrence in 2027, the interior offensive line is a sneaky draft need for the Bills. They have a pair of players in Alec Anderson and Sedrick Van Pran-Granger that they’ve been developing, but bringing in another mid-round option to build up depth and potentially compete for a starting job might be a smart idea. Rogers played mostly tackle in college but projects best as an athletic guard, and he had some experience at guard last season. That tackle-guard flexibility would be important for 2025 depth as well.

The pick at No. 173: Jake Brinningstool, TE, Clemson

The Bills have yet to bring back free agent Quintin Morris, and they can save almost $10 million in 2026 to cut Dawson Knox. With those two factors in mind, they can bring in Brinningstool to develop into their long-term backup tight end behind Dalton Kincaid. Brinningstool has good movement abilities and shows some potential as a blocker. He’d likely be a gameday inactive for much of 2025 while learning the NFL game.

The pick at No. 177: Dante Trader Jr., S, Maryland

After signing Damar Hamlin to a guaranteed one-year deal, their top three safeties are likely set for 2025. The fourth spot is in question, as Darrick Forrest’s contract has no guaranteed money past his signing bonus. If the Bills can find an instinctive safety later in the draft with some special teams ability they can develop in the background in 2025, someone like Trader would have a chance to crack their 53-man roster over Forrest. Trader also has some versatility to play nickel, helping his long-term value.

The pick at No. 206: James Burnip, P, Alabama

The countdown has begun to the next #Puntapalooza, as Beane confirmed they will bring in competition for punter Jake Camarda. The only question is, will the Bills use a draft pick on one? With 53-man roster spots lacking elsewhere, it would make a ton of sense. Burnip (6-foot-6, 235 pounds) is originally from Australia, has a big leg and specializes in hang time. Stopwatches at the ready.

(Top photo of Donovan Ezeiruaku: Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)