One of the most exciting aspects of every MLB season is when young up-and-coming players have breakouts that make pretenders into contenders, or contenders into champions, or simply just give their team’s fan bases new hope.
This is my annual roster of the players I think are most likely to have “breakout” seasons. My definition for a breakout candidate is a player I expect to perform at a significantly higher level than their major-league track record, or to burst onto the scene and blow away the rookie field. Breakout players share common traits including the ability to adjust and adapt, a high baseball IQ, and tremendous physical and mental skills. Although it’s typically a younger player, it can be someone of any age or service time.
So without further ado, here is my loaded 26-man roster, a position-by-position look at the players who are primed for breakout seasons in 2025. I considered many others who just missed out. Let me know in the comment section who else you think I should have included.
(Players are listed in alphabetical order by position. Ages are as of March 21.)
Outfielders
Lawrence Butler, RF, Athletics
Age: 24
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-3 Weight: 210
Butler showed signs of being an All-Star-caliber player over his final 61 games last season when he slashed .300/.345/.553 with 13 home runs and 12 steals in as many attempts. He finished the year with 22 homers and 18 steals and left many of us thinking he could break out this year with 30/30-type production, especially considering he’ll play half his games in Sacramento’s hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, not the Oakland Coliseum. The A’s rewarded him with a seven-year, $65.5 million extension earlier this month. He hits breaking balls well, last season registering a .290 average and .580 slugging against them, which bodes well for his future. He ranked in the 80th to 85th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed.
Oneil Cruz had a career-best .773 OPS last season. Can he take a big step forward in 2025? (Kim Klement Neitzel / Imagn Images)
Oneil Cruz, CF, Pirates
Age: 26
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-7 Weight: 240
You want to talk about explosive offensive tools: Crux ranked in the top percentile in bat speed, the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, and 97th percentile in both barrel percentage and hard-hit rate. He belted 21 home runs last year — 10 off fastballs, seven off breaking balls and four off changeups. Pitchers can’t make a mistake against him. I put him on my breakout team last spring and I’m going back to the well again. The Pirates are finally moving Cruz full-time to center field, where he has one of the best arms in the game. I believe playing one position, and in center rather than at shortstop, will help his offensive consistency. There is no ceiling for this future star.
Michael Harris II, CF, Braves
Age: 24
Bats: L Throws: L
Height: 6-0 Weight: 195
Harris’ first three big-league seasons have been solid as he’s averaged 18 home runs per year with 20 stolen bases in two of the past three years. His career slash line is a respectful .285/.325/.469. However, he’s yet to play 140 games in a season and has only reached 500 plate appearances in one of his first three seasons. I love the fact he uses the whole field and has an xBA in the 94th percentile and bat speed in the 86th percentile, plus impressive range in center field (93rd percentile). Harris also has shown he can hit the full spectrum of pitches; last year he batted .250 against fastballs, .277 against breaking balls and .282 against off-speed offerings. I believe his fourth year in the majors will be his best year.
Wyatt Langford, LF, Rangers
Age: 23
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 225
I predicted Langford would win AL Rookie of the Year last spring, and although I came up short, he did finish seventh in the voting. He had two great months, batting over .300 in both June and September/October while belting 11 of his 16 home runs and driving in 42 of his 74 RBIs during those months. He also ended up stealing 19 bases in 22 attempts on the season, and even though injuries limited him to 134 games, he still was worth 3.9 WAR according to Baseball Reference. Langford, the No. 4 pick in 2023, might end up developing into the best position player in that draft and the second-best overall player behind Paul Skenes. He has a keen eye at the plate, ranking in the 86th percentile in chase rate as a rookie. Last year he reached 16 homers and 19 steals; 25/25 is realistic for this future star in 2025.
Matt Wallner, LF, Twins
Age: 27
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-4 Weight: 220
Wallner has walloped six home runs this spring and has a direct pathway to a full-time gig in the Twins’ lineup. He reached base at a 37 percent clip last season while posting a 149 OPS+ and hammering 13 home runs in 220 at-bats. He topped the 80th percentile in exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit rate and bat speed. He also has a rifle for an arm.
James Wood, LF, Nationals
Age: 22
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-7 Weight: 234
If you’re going to watch Wood take batting practice, you might want to bring a set of earplugs. Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo compared the sound off his bat to that of former Mets great Darryl Strawberry. Wood has amazing plate discipline for his large fame and is one of the best young hitters in the league at spitting at balls out of the strike zone. He has tremendous poise and composure and a slow heartbeat. He’s considered the player with the highest ceiling in Washington’s organization.
First baseman
Triston Casas, Red Sox
Age: 25
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-4 Weight: 244
Casas has played in 222 games over his first three major-league seasons, with a combined 42 home runs, 109 RBIs and a slash line of .250/.357/.473. He works the count, draws walks and barrels the ball with plus bat speed. He’s a below-average defender at first base, but if he finally gets 500 plate appearances, I expect 25 to 30 home runs this year.
Second baseman
Matt McLain finished fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2023. After missing all of 2024, what will he do for an encore this year? (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
Matt McLain, Reds
Age: 25
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5-9 Weight: 180
McLain had a banner rookie season in 2023, slashing .290/.357/.507 with 23 doubles, 16 home runs, 50 RBIs and 14 stolen bases in only 89 games (403 plate appearances). Last year, he suffered a shoulder injury in spring training and later a stress reaction in his rib cage that forced him to miss the entire season. However, he’s healthy and expected to be the full-time second baseman for the Reds this year. He’s considered the best technical and fundamental player on their active roster. His sweet-spot percentage ranked in the 94th percentile in his rookie year and he’s a plus-plus base runner with 90th percentile speed.
Shortstops
CJ Abrams, Nationals
Age: 24
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-0 Weight: 191
Abrams made his first All-Star team last year and finished with 20 home runs and 31 stolen bases over 138 games. However, he also had some off-the-field issues that led to a late-season demotion to the minors. It was a learning experience for Abrams that will make him a better player. He added significant upper-body strength in his offseason conditioning program that didn’t affect his blazing speed. Joining the 30-home run, 40-stolen base club this year is realistic for him. What a breakout that would be.
Masyn Winn hit .267 with 32 doubles and 15 homers last season. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
Masyn Winn, Cardinals
Age: 23
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5-9 Weight: 185
Winn has one of the best infield arms in baseball even if it often results in a two-seam sinker rather than the preferred four-seamer. His throws across the diamond can be clocked between 95 and 100 mph, which shouldn’t be a problem for the Cardinals’ new first baseman, Willson Contreras, who was used to that type of velocity when catching some members of the team’s pitching staff. A Gold Glove finalist last year, Winn has plus range to both sides, which isn’t always appreciated because he and third baseman Nolan Arenado often overlap each other. Winn hit .267 last season with a .314 on-base percentage, 15 homers, 32 doubles, five triples and 11 steals. He’s committed to improving his ability to draw walks and hit line drives and is primed for improvement in his third big-league season.
Third basemen
Junior Caminero, Rays
Age: 21
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6-1 Weight: 220
Caminero tore up the Dominican Winter League with Leones del Escogido, impressing his manager, MLB great Albert Pujols, so much that he said Caminero has the potential to become a Hall of Famer. His bat speed is special and reminds me of the great Gary Sheffield. He grades in the top echelon in barrel percentage, hard-hit rate and bat speed, which is a formula usually destined for success. The biggest question is whether he’s major-league-ready or needs more time in the minors.
Matt Shaw, Cubs
Age: 23
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5-10 Weight: 185
After losing out on Alex Bregman in free agency, the Cubs pivoted and announced that rookie Matt Shaw would be the team’s starting third baseman. Shaw was the Cubs’ first round pick and No. 13 overall in the 2023 MLB Draft. He has an unorthodox setup at the plate that includes a closed stance, toe tap and big leg kick. However, when his timing is on, he has a quick, short stroke with surprising lofting power. He profiles as a 20-home run, 30-stolen base talent with the ability to get on base at a high rate.
Catchers
Francisco Alvarez, Mets
Age: 23
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5-10 Weight: 233
Earlier in spring training, I predicted that Alvarez would make his first All-Star team and hit at least 30 home runs this year. But then he fractured a hamate bone in his left hand and will start the season on the injured list, which might keep him from ticking off those accomplishments in 2025. However, that won’t stop me from predicting a breakout for Alvarez. He’s one of the hardest-working young players in the game, always striving to get better. The Mets’ pitching staff loves to pitch to him because of those traits. He’s also fortunate to be in a lineup with stars such as Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, which gives him the opportunity to learn from some of the best in the game.
Austin Wells, Yankees
Age: 25
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6-1 Weight: 220
The Yankees have been considering Wells as their leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching, which tells you how highly they think of him. I won’t be surprised if he makes his first All-Star team this year. In his first full season with the Yankees, he helped lead them to the World Series, batting .229/.322/.395 with 13 homers and 66 RBIs in 354 at-bats. He finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, behind teammate Luis Gil and the Orioles’ Colton Cowser. Defensively, Wells is considered an elite framer and above-average blocker. On offense, he’ll draw walks and has an above-average chase rate. The power is real and I expect him to end up with more than 20 homers this year.
Pitchers
Spencer Arrighetti averaged 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings as a rookie. (Dave Nelson / Imagn Images)
Spencer Arrighetti, RHP, Astros
Age: 25
Height: 6-2 Weight: 186
Arrighetti held his own in his rookie year, posting a 4.53 ERA over 29 appearances (28 starts) with 171 strikeouts in 145 innings. Walks were his biggest weakness, as he averaged 4.0 per nine innings. He ranked in the 96th percentile in extension, which made his 94 mph fastball feel more like 97 mph. The curveball was his best secondary pitch; batters hit just .171 against it. He logged a 3.18 ERA over his final 12 appearances of the season.
Kris Bubic, LHP, Royals
Age: 27
Height: 6-3 Weight: 225
The Royals were willing to trade Brady Singer to the Reds for Jonathan India this past offseason because they were confident Bubic could slide into Singer’s rotation spot and deliver similar or better production. Last season, Bubic pitched out of the bullpen for the Royals and dominated over 27 appearances, striking out 39 and walking only six over 30 1/3 innings with a 2.67 ERA. Batters hit .205 against his four-seamer and .179 against his changeup, while his sweeper held hitters to a .204 xBA. He’s healthy and ready to make his mark in 2025.
Robert Garcia, LHP, Rangers
Age: 28
Height: 6-4 Weight: 236
The Rangers traded first baseman Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals this past offseason in part because they had an opportunity to acquire Garcia, an affordable lefty who should boost their bullpen in high-leverage situations. (He made $742,000 last year and won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2027.) The analytics loved Garcia last season, putting him in the 98th percentile in barrel percentage and hard-hit rate, the 97th percentile in xERA and the 94th percentile in chase rate. He throws a 94 mph fastball, a deceptive changeup and a late-breaking slider. Garcia had a 4.22 ERA over 72 appearances and averaged 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings last year. Working with Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux, one of the best in the game, should help him improve his consistency.
Seth Halvorsen, RHP, Rockies
Age: 25
Height: 6-2 Weight: 225
The Rockies are expected to start the season with Tyler Kinley as their closer, but don’t be surprised if Halvorsen takes over the role at some point this year. He debuted in 2024, appearing in 12 games for Colorado, with 13 strikeouts and two walks over 12 1/3 innings while notching his first two career saves. His fastball velocity ranked in the 99th percentile and his extension was in the 87th percentile. His split-finger is a wipeout pitch, and his slider is more than adequate. If given a chance, Halvorsen could break out and become the Rockies’ full-time closer by season’s end.
Clay Holmes, RHP, Mets
Age: 31
Height: 6-5 Weight: 245
I don’t usually put a 31-year-old pitcher on my breakout team, but it’s also not typical for a former closer and set-up reliever to be converted into a starter and then named an Opening Day starter, but that’s what has happened to Holmes. I’m never going to bet against Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns or manager Carlos Mendoza, who were convinced Holmes could make the transition to the rotation and succeed this year. The Mets were aware of Holmes’ above-average changeup, which he just didn’t need to throw as a reliever, and he’s also added a cutter to give him another weapon against left-handed hitters. Opening Day will be his first major-league start in seven years. The Mets bet $38 million over three years that Holmes can be a successful starter, and I’m jumping on the bandwagon.
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers
Age: 22
Height: 6-2 Weight: 190
Jobe is my preseason pick for AL rookie pitcher of the year and I’m also going to predict that he’ll eventually win a Cy Young Award. He has an overpowering mid-90s fastball with exploding life, a wipeout slider, and a plus-plus changeup with which he has pinpoint control. I love his delivery as much as I appreciate his poise, slow heartbeat and composure. He’s the second-best pitching prospect in the sport, behind only Roki Sasaki.
Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates
Age: 23
Height: 6-0 Weight: 190
Jones impressed this spring. He changed his pitch mix and now throws both a two- and four-seam fastball to go along with his slider, which had a 37.3 whiff percentage last year. He showed improvement with his changeup and mixed in some usable curveballs too. Unfortunately for Jones and the Pirates, he reported elbow discomfort and is being assessed. He won’t pitch again this spring.
Hiring Brent Strom as assistant pitching coach was one of the best moves the Pirates made in the offseason. Bringing his mind and successful track record into the Pirates’ pitching room will truly benefit their young hurlers, especially Jones, who last season had a 4.14 ERA over 22 starts. He’ll learn how to change eye levels and add and subtract, and could develop into an impact starter by season’s end. Here’s hoping he gets good news about his right elbow and he’s back pitching soon.
Nick Lodolo, LHP, Reds
Age: 27
Height: 6-6 Weight: 216
Last season, Lodolo logged a 4.76 ERA over 21 starts. He struck out 122 in 115 1/3 innings. He needs to improve the command of his two-seam fastball to better set up his four-seamer, curveball and changeup. He has looked a lot better this spring in terms of how he’s attacking hitters and executing his pitches in key moments. The talent is there; now it’s time for him to put it all together.
Roki Sasaki, RHP, Dodgers
Age: 23
Height: 6-2 Weight: 187
Sasaki made his major-league debut Wednesday in Tokyo and showed why all 30 teams wanted to sign him in the offseason. His 100 mph fastball is explosive and dominant, but it’s his split-finger that most evaluators consider one of the best, if not the best, secondary pitches in the sport. It just tumbles, falling off the kitchen counter straight down with forkball-type floating action. It’s nasty, filthy, disgusting. Sasaki is my preseason pick for NL rookie pitcher of the year, and I think he’ll win a Cy Young Award or two once he’s fully developed.
Ryan Weathers, LHP, Marlins
Age: 25
Height: 6-1 Weight: 230
The Marlins acquired Weathers from the Padres at the 2023 trade deadline. He had a 5.73 ERA with San Diego in his first three years in the majors. However, after joining Miami, he started to show signs of living up to his lofty draft status (seventh overall in 2018). Off-speed pitches are his calling card; last season, batters hit .193 against his changeup and .118 against his sweeper. He will start the season on the injured list with a forearm strain. But when he returns, to take the next step, it’s key for Weathers to improve the movement, command and control of his mid-90s fastball. If he can do that and stay healthy, he might be able to build his trade value enough to be dealt to a contender at the deadline.
Gavin Williams, RHP, Guardians
Age: 25
Height: 6-6 Weight: 250
Williams had a strong rookie season in 2023, posting a 3.29 ERA over 16 starts but with 4.1 walks per nine innings. Last year he dealt with injuries, logging a 4.86 ERA but a much lower FIP (3.67) over 16 starts; he also reduced his walk rate to 3.8 per nine innings. Now if he can just get the walk rate under 3.0 per nine, and stay healthy, he should have a breakout season. Williams ranked in the 88th percentile in fastball velocity and in the 96th percentile in extension, which makes his mid-90s fastball look like high-90s to hitters. Batters hit .155 against his curveball and .205 against the cutter. When his command and control arrive, so will he.
Bryan Woo, RHP, Mariners
Age: 25
Height: 6-2 Weight: 205
Woo started to break out last season and should be able to continue to dominate over a full season this year. Last season, he went 9-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.898 WHIP over 22 starts. He had 101 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 121 1/3 innings. Woo finished in the 98th percentile in pitching run value, the 98th percentile in fastball run value, and the 94th percentile in xERA. He also ranked in the top percentile in walk percentage and the 91st percentile in barrel rate. Batters hit .214 against his four-seamer, .240 against his sinker, .265 against his slider, .186 against his changeup and .100 against his sweeper. He has the raw stuff, arsenal, and command and control. Can he do it over a full season? I’m a believer.
(Top photo of Lawrence Butler: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
