Newcastle United have already achieved their season’s objective. The Carabao Cup triumph was the achievement Eddie Howe most craved.
But as well as bringing silverware, that win guaranteed them a place in the play-off stage of the UEFA Conference League next season. CEO Darren Eales and sporting director Paul Mitchell had declared the club’s realistic goal for this season was European qualification.
So Howe has delivered — but certainly does not see his campaign’s work as being finished. While Newcastle desperately wanted to return to Europe, the Conference League is not the tournament anyone inside the club truly wants to be playing in.
Newcastle will gratefully accept their place for 2025-26 if that proves their only route back into Europe, but with 10 Premier League games remaining, a Champions League spot remains the goal — and is an achievable one given an additional fifth qualification slot for England is appearing highly likely — with the Europa League as a potential consolation should they fall short.
Here, The Athletic explores what the effects of European football next season will be.
Finances
Newcastle will see an uptick in revenue from being in the Conference League, but, unsurprisingly, being in the Champions League would be far more economically rewarding.
In 2023-24, Newcastle received £29.8million ($38.5m at present exchange rates) in prize money after being knocked out at the group stage of the Champions League — almost 10 per cent of their revenue that season. Manchester United, meanwhile, earned £53.8m despite also finishing bottom of their group, as UEFA distributions reward historic participation, and Newcastle had no previous coefficient.
A banner in the Gallowgate in December 2023 (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Since then, the format has been revamped, making it even more lucrative for participants. For 2024-25, 74 per cent of the total prize money UEFA will distribute to the clubs in Europe’s three competitions will be shared among Champions League participants (€2.467bn/£2.05bn); while 17 per cent will go to those in the Europa League (€565m); and only nine per cent to Conference League competitors (€285m).
There are three main ‘pillars’ to how the prize money is awarded across the competitions.
The first is a starting fee, which is given for merely reaching the ‘league phase’. Each club receives €18.6m in the Champions League, €4.3m in the Europa League and €3.2m in the Conference League. As things stand, Newcastle have not yet reached even that stage in the latter, given they would need to navigate a two-legged qualifier to take their place in the league phase.
Money is also distributed via performance-related bonuses, for wins and draws.
Then there is the ‘value pillar’ — which is a mixture of the old market pool for broadcast contracts and coefficient pots.
The overall maximum prize money for a participant in the Champions League is €156.9m, while it is €43.4m in the Europa League and €21.7m in the Conference League.
The overall minimum prize money, meanwhile, is €20.2m for a Champions League competitor, €4.7m in the Europa League, and €3.3m in the Conference League.
Newcastle would almost certainly earn more than £2.8m by virtue of being an English club, meaning they will benefit from a higher broadcast share, while they featured in Europe last season, so actually have a coefficient now, albeit a low one.
When those factors are considered, Newcastle are likely to make a minimum of €37m for being in the Champions League — £1.2m more than 2023-24 — €12m from the Europa League and €5m from the Conference League.
Those figures are conservative and would rise the deeper Newcastle progressed. But they demonstrate that, in all likelihood, purely when it comes to prize money, the Champions League would earn them six times more than the Conference League.
Matchday revenue will also increase.
Currently, Newcastle are only guaranteed one additional home game, but should they progress through the qualifier, they will gain another three, up to a maximum of eight. Champions League and Europa League group-stage qualification would guarantee four home matches, up to a maximum of eight, and Newcastle would be able to charge higher ticket prices in those more prestigious competitions.
Additionally, many of Newcastle’s commercial deals, including Adidas, are believed to contain bonuses for European qualification, which operate on a sliding scale — with a Champions League place worth the most.
Newcastle played Paris Saint-Germain in their previous European campaign (Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Images)
That is why, in Newcastle’s accounts for 2022-23, they projected that being in the Champions League in 2023-24 was worth at least £37m. Only £29.8m of that was direct prize money, but three home matches and sponsorship bonuses made participation more lucrative.
Costs will also rise — many player contracts (and Howe’s) contain European bonuses, while a deeper squad is required, meaning greater transfer expenditure — but the benefits far outweigh those.
When it comes to the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR), European participation will allow Newcastle to spend more given revenues will increase, but the Champions League would be even more lucrative.
Being in Europe does mean that Newcastle must also adhere to UEFA’s cost-to-turnover measures — calculated annually rather than across the footballing season, as PSR is — which is reducing to a 70-per-cent limit for 2025-26. However, Newcastle are confident that abiding by UEFA’s regulations will not be particularly problematic.
Recruitment
How will this additional revenue impact Newcastle’s transfer strategy?
Last month, at a summit in Northumberland, Yasir Al-Rumayyan, club chairman and governor of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), was presented with the overarching summer-recruitment blueprint. Newcastle have not materially strengthened their first XI for three windows and, alongside reducing the squad’s average age, Mitchell finally has the opportunity to make signings.
While budgets are yet to be shared, the potential kitty available becomes more discernible with Europe guaranteed, given the 70 per cent cost-to-turnover ratio is applicable — though participation in a higher tier may free greater funds.
Long lists of potential players have not yet been significantly whittled down, but Newcastle know the areas that most require strengthening.
Right-sided centre-back is a priority, with Crystal Palace’s Marc Guehi and Bournemouth’s Illia Zabarnyi among those admired, alongside a right-sided forward. A host of wingers have been scouted, including Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo and PSV’s Johan Bakayoko.
A goalkeeper is sought, with Burnley’s James Trafford a long-term target.
A striker, another defender and potentially a midfielder may also be acquired.
The sales of Miguel Almiron and Lloyd Kelly have bolstered Newcastle’s PSR position and they do have the capacity to invest.
But the scale of Newcastle’s incoming business is dependent on numerous factors; offloading high earners, how many of their five out-of-contract first teamers (Callum Wilson, Jamaal Lascelles, Fabian Schar, who is expected to sign a new deal, John Ruddy and Mark Gillespie) remain, the cost of targets, and which European competition they are in.
Fabian Schar after helping Newcastle win a trophy (Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images)
There will be debates internally about what precisely Newcastle require for the Champions League, Europa League or Conference League.
Perversely, there is an argument that Newcastle may actually need more players in the lesser competitions if Howe intends to rotate heavily. Chelsea essentially fielded a separate XI in the Conference League group stages and, presently, Newcastle do not possess the depth for that.
In the Champions League, Newcastle may repeat their 2023 strategy, when they bought two first-XI-ready signings in Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes, plus two youngsters they believed would progress into elite performers, in Lewis Hall and Tino Livramento. Additional quality is needed to compete in the Champions League, whereas signing ‘squad players’, alongside some first-XI additions, may be necessary in lesser competitions.
Conference League football is unlikely to entice ambitious targets to join, or convince Alexander Isak and his elite team-mates to stay in the way Champions League participation would, but it does mean Howe can guarantee playing time to younger signings.
Homegrown quota issues
Summer business will be complicated by UEFA’s homegrown quota, which applies to all three tiers — and which Newcastle will almost certainly fail to meet again.
For 2023-24, Howe was restricted to naming a 23-man senior Champions League squad, two short of the 25-player limit, due to a lack of ‘club-trained players’. Emil Krafth, Javier Manquillo, Matt Ritchie and Gillespie were omitted from the ‘A List’.
UEFA regulations stipulate that each club must have a minimum of eight ‘homegrown’ players. For every homegrown slot a club cannot fill, they are docked a squad place.
Four players can be ‘association trained’ — meaning that between the ages of 15 and 21, regardless of nationality, they were registered for at least three years with a club in England — and a minimum of four must be ‘club trained’.
While the former is not an issue, for the latter, players must have been registered with Newcastle for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21.
Last season, only Paul Dummett and Sean Longstaff satisfied that criteria, so Newcastle were deducted two places. Currently — with Dummett and Elliot Anderson leaving last June — only Longstaff will for 2025-26.
Sean Longstaff scored in the Champions League in 2023 (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Clubs also submit a ‘B list’, which under-21s can be named on, as Lewis Miley and Anderson were last time — Miley would class as ‘club trained’, so naming him on the ‘A list’ would theoretically allow Newcastle to name one more player, but he’d then be taking up a place himself, which he doesn’t need to as he’s under-21, so there’s no benefit. Similarly, Hall does not need to be on the ‘A list’ due to being under-21.
However, should every player remain on Tyneside — which seems unlikely — and no ‘club-trained players’ arrive, then only 22 of the present 24 senior squad members could be named.
Longstaff is entering the final year of his deal and had been expected to leave, given selling an academy product represents ‘pure profit’ for PSR, but keeping the midfielder guarantees Newcastle an additional European squad place.
Tim Krul was tentatively floated as a backup goalkeeper last spring when European qualification was possible, primarily because he qualifies as ‘club trained’.
Whether Newcastle actively look into acquiring former players to aid their ‘club-trained’ quota is unclear. Howe would surely love to be reunited with Anderson, but that appears extremely unlikely and there is a dearth of quality alternatives.
This is yet another reason it is essential that Newcastle’s academy starts producing a greater volume of players.
Make use of European experience
When Newcastle were preparing for the 2023-24 Champions League, there was a realisation that there was barely any European experience among the non-playing staff (Eales and Paul Catterson, the club doctor, aside).
That campaign was the first taste of Europe for Howe and most of his coaching staff, while then-sporting director Dan Ashworth and the recruitment team were European novices.
It proved to be an education for the entire club.
“So much,” Howe told TNT Sports in December 2023 when asked what he had learned from the campaign. “The value of the squad first and foremost, that’s what’s exposed us. We haven’t had the ability to utilise the squad we’ve created.”
This time around, not only are Howe, his coaches and off-field staff more attuned to the additional demands Europe brings and the need to rotate more, but Mitchell and James Bunce, the performance director, are also present. Both arrived from clubs who regularly qualify for Europe and that, alongside their elite credentials, was part of their attraction given Newcastle want to be in continental competitions every season.
Howe’s side struggled towards the end of their last European campaign (Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images)
Mitchell is tasked with overseeing the construction of a squad that can handle competing on multiple fronts, while Bunce will try to ensure greater player availability, given an unprecedented injury list significantly hindered Newcastle last season.
There have already been improvements. Notwithstanding the lack of Champions League fixtures, Newcastle’s injury record has been much better this season despite the team being on course to play 48 fixtures, only three shy of the 51 across 2023-24.
Both can aid with the transition to a Thursday-Sunday schedule, too, if Newcastle are in one of the lower competitions because that brings fresh problems, as does the additional travel in the Conference League or Europa League given the wider geographical spread.
Crucially, everyone at Newcastle is now fully aware of the challenges — and opportunities — Europe brings.
Further silverware and non-linear progress
Newcastle would undoubtedly be among the favourites for the Conference League, given West Ham lifted it in 2023 and Chelsea may do so this season.
They would be among the likely winners of the Europa League, so Newcastle have an opportunity to build on their League Cup success.
As a club who want to be in Europe every season, the additional learning experience will prove invaluable, while Newcastle can show players that they are making (non-linear) progress.
Admittedly, the Champions League is a game-changer when it comes to enticing players to stay or join. Yet, by winning the Europa League, Newcastle would automatically gain entry for the 2026-27 Champions League, so it offers an alternative route into the top-tier competition.
By winning the Conference League, Newcastle would secure Europa League football as a minimum for the following campaign.
Although the glamour and even the short-term economic uptick are diminished in the lesser competitions, there are also medium-to-long-term upsides to being in either tournament.
(Additional reporting: Chris Weatherspoon)
(Top photo: Newcastle United lifting the League Cup; by Stu Forster via Getty Images)
