Lions mailbag: Decoding Brad Holmes, draft insights, order of needs and more

The NFL owners meetings kick off Sunday and the NFL Draft is about a month away. We’ll hear Brad Holmes’ and Dan Campbell’s thoughts on the offseason so far and what’s still on their to-do list. But until then, it felt like a good time for an offseason mailbag.

Thanks again to everyone who submitted a question. After reading through them, it’s clear you’re all thrilled with the edge position and have no lingering thoughts or opinions about it. We’ll discuss that and more below.

Brad Holmes’ regime has been open and honest about its plans for the draft and free agency, but sometimes it only becomes apparent looking back on press conferences after the fact. Is there a quote or general inclination that the Lions have shared this offseason that we’ll look back on after the draft and say “Oh wow, they made it obvious they were going to do this!” — Peter J.

Honestly, Peter, not only is this an awesome question, it’s an incredibly astute observation. In 2023, Holmes said it’s easier to get worse at quarterback than it is to get better — then put his trust in Jared Goff and extended him a year later. He told us he wasn’t afraid to draft a running back in the first round, then took Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall weeks later. He told us he doesn’t get caught up in positional value or mock drafts, then drafted a running back, a linebacker, a tight end and a safety when many thought they should go QB, cornerback, defensive tackle or edge rusher. About a week before the draft last year, he said the Lions would never be afraid to trade up for a player if it’s the right fit, then traded up for their top remaining player and their No. 1-ranked corner in Terrion Arnold.

This year, there’s one soundbite I keep coming back to. At his end-of-the-year news conference in January, Holmes talked about the trade deadline. It was our first time talking to him since he acquired Za’Darius Smith — easily the best pass-rusher who was moved, in a market that was less active than expected on the edge rusher front.

“This was the first time we’ve had to trade for a pass rusher this year, and I will say that was the most difficult player acquisition journey that I’ve ever dealt with,” Holmes said. “…You can look at all these names of all these starting defensive ends in the NFL, but when you start doing the work and you start making the calls, that thing shrinks down. …You start calling these other teams and these other GMs and they might have four rushers. And so, forget the starters, those guys aren’t even available. We’re talking about thirds (No. 3 pass-rushers) and fourths (No. 4 pass-rushers), and I can’t really disagree with them where they say, ‘Look, we’ve got two-plus months of football left and (if) I trade you one and then we get another one hurt then we’ve only got two.’ And I was like, ‘I didn’t really expect you to be rational and think about it that way.’ But it’s true. …I think that one, just going through that experience, I can say just sharpened me up a little bit.”

Let’s recap: Holmes said trading for an edge rusher this past was the most difficult journey he’s ever dealt with re: player acquisition, and he saw how his own team’s depth was tested. I followed up with Holmes at the combine and asked what he learned. His answer? That teams aren’t handing over their stars.

It makes the Lions’ current edge situation a bit murky, eh? But listen, if there’s anyone who’s earned the benefit of the doubt, it’s Holmes. The guy knows what he’s doing. Hearing comments like this, I wouldn’t be surprised if Holmes doubled down at edge in a class like this, like he did at corner last year. He and Ray Agnew have discussed how deep the class is. It would be a way to inject some new blood into the room in a hurry. And maybe the Smith door hasn’t fully closed yet. Who knows.

What’s the deal with Za’Darius Smith? Is he coming back? If not, why hasn’t he signed elsewhere? — Todd G. 

I’ll be honest, the longer Smith goes unsigned, the more I wonder if the Lions are letting him take his time and would like to remain involved. That’s sort of how they were able to land C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Holmes told reporters he didn’t know if they’d be able to sign him, but was in contact with his agent throughout the process. When his market didn’t materialize the way he thought it would, Detroit was the landing spot. So, I do wonder if the Lions had a similar conversation with Smith. “Hey Z, we’re gonna release you, but this doesn’t have to be the end of our time together. Look around, take your time and keep us posted.”

Smith is 32. He’s not a vet who needs a full offseason program. He doesn’t appear to be in a rush to sign. Feels like he’s in the same boat as Von Miller. I think he’s enjoying his offseason. We’ll see what happens.

In what order would you put the ‘needs’ of DE, DT, OG and WR? And in what order would you draft them? — Doge T. 

DE/Edge
Guard
Defensive tackle
Wide receiver

How I would draft them depends on the board. If my options in the first are between Grey Zabel and an edge I don’t really love, I’d take Zabel and wait for an edge. If I don’t love the edge rushers or guards at 28 but there’s an awesome DT available (I’m a big Derrick Harmon fan), I’d take the DT. Or if I think I can create some value by trading back into the 30s for a player I know will be there, that’s an option, too. I’d probably have WR last in any scenario right now.

I know everyone is screaming edge but this is sort of how the Lions operate in the draft. They don’t force things. They could’ve taken Tyree Wilson at No. 6 — a player who was often mocked to them — but he hasn’t lived up to the hype so far. Instead, they took a two-time Pro Bowl running back, one of the NFL’s best young linebackers, a Pro Bowl tight end and a Pro Bowl safety with their first four picks — all in the top 50. That said, I think having fewer needs now compared to then will help them hone in a bit more, but you really never know.

Interior O-line and Edge are arguably the two greatest needs heading into next season. Which position has the better options for the Lions on day two of the draft?

I think there’s far more edge depth than guard depth in this class. I could absolutely see a scenario where the Lions take a guard in the first round — say, Grey Zabel or Donovan Jackson — and then move up in the second round for an edge rusher they like. I went long on the edge rushers in my latest big board. A ton of options on Day 2.

Similar to when Atlanta moved way up in the draft for Julio Jones, what, if any prospect could you see Brad jumping into the top 10 for? — Ben C.

The Falcons were picking 27th in the 2011 NFL Draft prior to a draft-night trade that got them up to No. 6. They gave the Browns their 2011 first-round pick (No. 27), their 2011 second- and fourth-round picks, their 2012 first-round pick and an additional 2012 fourth-round pick. Five for one.

Jones is a future Hall of Famer. Here’s what the Browns did with those picks:

It’s pretty safe to say the Lions aren’t likely to do something like this. But if there’s a top-10 player you could realistically go up and get if they start to slide a bit, maybe Abdul Carter (medicals) or Mason Graham? Carter could be a long-term edge next to Hutch, but you’d have to give up a haul to get there. Graham is one of the cleanest evaluations in the draft but it’s such a deep DT class I don’t think it’d be wise to sacrifice so many assets for him when you could get a quality player later. Would you be willing to trade No. 28, next year’s first, No. 60, No. 133 and next year’s fourth for Carter or Graham? Would you be able to find a team that’s cool going down that far? A lot of variables involved.

A player I’ve seen projected in the teens and early 20s more and more is Boston College’s Donovan Ezeiruaku. He recorded 16.5 sacks, tested very well at the combine, has 34-inch arms, excellent tape and a PhD in pass-rushing. I’m not sure he’ll make it to 28. Also not sure if the Lions feel the same way about him as I do. But he’s a guy I’d get if you can. Far more realistic and cheaper.

A departure from FA and draft talk…What, if any, changes have been signaled with the new OC and DC and their styles/schemes? — Roger F.

Probably a little too early to say. I did do a deep dive on John Morton and Kelvin Sheppard last month, so check that out if you missed it. It talks about their coaching influences more than anything, which is where I think we’ll see them differentiate themselves a bit. Each coordinator will put his touch on things, but these hires were pretty intentional. Campbell said he wanted to keep playing man coverage at a high rate, then went internal with a coach who learned from AG himself in Sheppard. Morton helped build this offense up in 2022 as a senior offensive assistant. It would be foolish to rock the boat when that boat averaged 32 points per game. They want to keep pushing what they have in place.

In terms of personnel moves, I’d say bringing back Derrick Barnes signals that Sheppard will want to continue to run the AG defense, which would feature Barnes as the SAM linebacker. You don’t pay him $24 million without a plan in place. And the starting offense is virtually the same, minus Kevin Zeitler. No real tells there. We’ll probably have to wait until minicamp and OTAs to get a feel for things.

With looming (and justified) big contracts coming for Kerby, Branch, Hutch, etc., how do you feel about the Lions’ cap situation for the next three years? — Alex K.

There’s not gonna be much spending money, I’ll say that. That’s the cost of business, though. All these inexpensive talented players weren’t gonna be inexpensive forever. The Lions in the last year alone have extended Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Taylor Decker, Alim McNeill and David Montgomery, and just gave D.J. Reed $48 million. They’ve discussed Hutchinson and Kerby Joseph extensions this offseason. Future players on the list to discuss include Jameson Williams, Brian Branch, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell. It’s kind of comical when you think about it.

That said, Mike Disner is a really smart dude. He and Charlie Adkins should be able to manage things, in addition to Holmes and company. I imagine a Goff restructure is on the horizon, maybe as early as next year. You find ways to make it work and stay as competitive as possible with your core.

Are we ready to call Colby Sorsdal and Brodric Martin busts? Even with the lack of depth at (guard) and nose, their names don’t seem to be mentioned much as viable internal solutions. — Matthew R.

I think the word bust is thrown out way too often. I have a hard time calling a fifth-round pick who went to a small school like Sorsdal a bust. I don’t know if he’ll ever develop into a starting-caliber guard, but I also don’t know if they drafted him to be one. If he can turn into a solid spot starter over the next two years, I think the pick is a hit. That hasn’t been the case yet, though, so there’s work to do.

With Martin, I think we’re starting to get there. Not that this matters a ton now, but The Athletic’s Dane Brugler gave him a seventh-round grade. The Lions traded pick Nos. 122 (fourth), 139 and 168 (fifth) for No. 96 (third) to select Martin. That’s a top-100 pick, which you’d expect to turn into a starter. He’s got the long arms and the frame to be a contributor, but Martin plays too high and wasn’t ready to help after an injury-plagued Year 2. He had a golden opportunity to step up last year when the Lions were depleted. Here’s what Campbell had to say about Myles Adams and Jonah Williams — two defensive tackles plucked from thin air midseason — and Martin after the Packers game in December.

“I thought Myles and Jonah — I thought both had winning performances,” Campbell said. “I thought for what we asked them to do, I thought they went in there and battled and did their job. …Brodric was up and down. You have a couple that were good and then you have some that weren’t so good, but that’s all part of the growth process, development process, but I was impressed with those two new guys we had.”

We didn’t see Martin again on defense after that. The DT room now features McNeill, DJ Reader, Levi Onwuzurike, Roy Lopez and Mekhi Wingo. I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but this feels like a make-or-break year for him. Ideally, the lights come on and he can join the rotation — perhaps providing them with an in-house candidate to replace Reader next year. But the clock is ticking. It’s entirely fair to put that pressure on him now.

Yes, he was a project, but at some point, projects have to be turned in and graded.

What coaches and or management-type people that left this offseason could have a negative effect on the culture Dan and Brad have built? — Kyle G.

I think anytime you lose good coaches you have to wonder how it’ll affect you the following season. Aaron Glenn was key to building Detroit’s culture. None of this looks like it does without him, and Campbell would tell you the same. Ben Johnson contributed to a culture of winning with his perfectionist tendencies and brilliant mind. Antwaan Randle El was believed by the receivers and was extremely patient overseeing Jameson Williams’ development. Those are the top three that come to mind. But I do think the Lions did an excellent job replacing them.

Sheppard is the new AG, both in title and what he provides their culture. He can command any room he walks into. Morton is a savvy coach who’s seen everything and will have answers for his players. Nobody has anything bad to say about David Shaw, and Tashard Choice is highly respected. That’s just to name a few. Not to mention the guys they kept like Scottie Montgomery and Hank Fraley. I don’t think the culture will be negatively affected, to be honest.

I personally would love to hear your rankings of best press box spreads! — Matt P. 

Minnesota has a fantastic breakfast buffet. They also have an ice cream bar that is great for your tastebuds and terrible for your health. My tastebuds won that battle. Dallas always has some fancy meal ready for us and they also provide beer on tap postgame. If you saw a few extra typos in my Lions-Cowboys stories…(kidding, kidding). Houston had a pig roast, prime rib, a baked potato bar and this weird ice cream Keurig thing — none of which I ate because I was still in a food coma from my lunch at Truth BBQ. San Francisco does a nice job. Quality meals and desserts.

I’ll add to this: I’ll rank the 2025 road schedule by cities I’m most excited about because of their food.

1. Philadelphia: I’ve only been once and didn’t get a cheesesteak. That will change this year.
2. Kansas City: Need some burnt ends like I need air.
3. Los Angeles: Tacos. Or, like, anything else because they have everything.
4. Washington D.C.: Just a general fan of DC. Not worried about finding a good meal out here.
5. Minnesota: Still need to get a Juicy Lucy from Matt’s — tried going with Nolan Bianchi, Justin Rogers and Eric Woodyard in October but the wait was like an hour. Red Cow has a great burger, though.
6. Chicago: Home for me. Elite food city but I can get it whenever, ya know?
7. Green Bay/Appleton: The Lions beat hit this spot called Kroll’s last year. I missed it but they raved about the butter burgers.
8. Baltimore: I’m not a huge seafood guy. Sorry to disappoint. I did have some incredible wings when the Lions were there in 2023.
9. Cincinnati: I’ve had Skyline before. It was…something! But I’m also guessing it has much more to offer.

Still waiting on Buffalo and Germany. Make it happen, Roger.

(Top photo: Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA Today)



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