Good morning macrodata refiners!
It’s been a while since the Power Rankings have been taken over by a pop culture vehicle, but the good news is that injustice ends today. It’s “Severance” week at Rankings HQ and we have a devoted disciple of Kier, Mark L., joining us for the occasion.
In honor of the season finale (which we promise we won’t spoil) we put on our macrodata refinement hats and got to work. Well, we got our innies to get to work.
Our innies pored through the data in each team’s file, revealing one scary number that needs to be refined for reasons that are mysterious and important. Basically, what Dom L. already does here daily at The Athletic.
Please try to enjoy each ranking equally, and not show preference for any over the others.
Data as of March 19
1. Winnipeg Jets, 48-18-4
Last week: 3
Mark L. rank: 2
Dom L. rank: 1
.875
It’s extremely difficult to find a scary number for the Jets from this season, especially with Logan Stanley in the press box lately. The Jets have been that good this year. But one scary number from their past does loom large: Connor Hellebuyck’s playoff save percentage. Over the last three years, it’s.875, the worst among goalies who have started 10 or more games.
Hellebuyck has been amazing this season and continues to show why he’s the best goalie in the world. But until the Jets are actually playing playoff hockey, there’s still a small tinge of fear that history might repeat itself this April. A very, very small tinge — but a tinge nonetheless. We’re hoping Hellebuyck proves us wrong with some series-stealing heroics, but if he’s anything less than his usual self, Winnipeg’s magical season could end quickly. Again.
2. Dallas Stars, 43-21-4
Last week: 1
Mark L. rank: 1
Dom L. rank: 2
4
Miro Heiskanen’s jersey number. And the revelation this week that the Stars’ No. 1 defenseman could be out through the first round of the playoffs — a likely series against fellow Stanley Cup contender Colorado — should send a shiver through Stars fans’ spines. Relying on 22 minutes a night from Cody Ceci — with whom Dallas is being badly outshot and out-chanced (though, oddly enough, not outscored) — isn’t a recipe for success against the Avalanche. Heiskanen’s presence, or absence, changes a lot.
3. Washington Capitals, 46-15-8
Last week: 4
Mark L. rank: 3
Dom L. rank: 3
11.2
The Capitals’ five-on-five shooting percentage is the highest in the league, and, in fact, the highest we’ve seen since at least 2007-08. Alex Ovechkin’s 17.8 percent is by far the highest of his career (by more than two percentage points!). It’s lasted five months, so maybe it’s silly to worry about sustainability. After all, the Capitals became the first team to clinch a playoff spot Thursday night. But we simply haven’t seen shooting numbers like this in the cap era, and it’s perfectly fair to wonder if the Caps can keep up this ridiculous pace in the postseason, when time and space become more scarce.
4. Florida Panthers, 42-24-3
Last week: 2
Mark L. rank: 5
Dom L. rank: 4
6-1
That’s how much the Panthers are getting outscored by at five-on-five with Seth Jones on the ice since he was acquired from Chicago. In Jones’ first four games, when he was on the second pairing, the Panthers gave up just one goal with Gustav Forsling on the ice (a 4-1 differential). In Jones’ next four games, after Aaron Ekblad’s suspension and elevated Jones to the top pairing, the Panthers have given up five goals with Forsling on the ice (a 3-5 differential).
5. Carolina Hurricanes, 42-22-4
Last week: 7
Mark L. rank: 4
Dom L. rank: 5
-0.19
Andrei Svechnikov is in a drought. Since the beginning of February, Svechnikov has just one goal and six points in 11 games, 43 percent of the expected goals and has been outscored 9-5. His average Game Score — the scary number above — is one of the worst marks on the Hurricanes over that stretch. It’s clear something is up with Svechnikov considering he’s missed some time with injury, but it’s still a really tough stretch for a team that needs its stars to be stars. With Mikko Rantanen gone, the Hurricanes are back to needing more offensive punch and it doesn’t help that Svechnikov looked the way he did before injury. Can’t depend on Mark Jankowski scoring on every shot he takes forever, but maybe it’s time for Seth Jarvis to really step up on the top line.
6. Vegas Golden Knights, 39-19-7
Last week: 5
Mark L. rank: 6
Dom L. rank: 6
2.23
Since Jan. 1, no team has a higher expected-goals share than the Golden Knights, who have dominated play at five-on-five to the tune of 56.51 percent. Their record is strong and everyone is contributing which made it hard to find a scary number.
But as strong as their xG has been, actual goals do matter, and the Knights aren’t getting nearly enough of them — especially on offense. In that same time span, Vegas is 19th in the league at just 2.23 goals scored per 60 minutes. Will a lack of finishing ability doom the Knights the way it’s doomed possession monsters like the Hurricanes in the past? Maybe it wouldn’t matter so much if Vegas’ second-ranked power play got on the ice more often, but Vegas is dead last in the league with just 2.74 penalties drawn per 60 minutes.
7. Colorado Avalanche, 42-25-3
Last week: 6
Mark L. rank: 5
Dom L. rank: 6
48 percent
The Avalanche are a great team that got deeper at the deadline, but things get a little dicey whenever both Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar aren’t on the ice together. Which is roughly 75 percent of the time.
With that duo on the ice the Avalanche are dominant with 63 percent of the expected goals and 60 percent of the goals. Any other time, those rates drop to 48 percent. While they may outscore teams with one of MacKinnon or Makar on the ice, the Avalanche do lose the possession battle in those minutes (especially with just Makar). And while they possess the puck a little better with both players off, they’ve been badly outscored during that time.
Depth has been a key issue all season and that spells it out pretty clearly. Are Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle and Ryan Lindgren enough to fix the problem come playoff time?
8. Toronto Maple Leafs, 42-24-3
Last week: 9
Mark L. rank: 8
Dom L. rank: 8
48.7
For the first time in the Auston Matthews era, the Leafs are under water in terms of expected goals. That they’re still a plus-17 at five-on-five is a testament to their finishers, their power play and their top-five goaltending. But if this is indeed Mitch Marner’s last hurrah with the Core Four, it’ll take a better team game than we’ve seen from the Leafs so far to make it a memorable one, rather than an all-too-familiar one. Fans are hungry for a lot more than respect in the handshake line and it’s tough to say that the current way can get them there.
9. Tampa Bay Lightning, 40-23-5
Last week: 8
Mark L. rank: 9
Dom L. rank: 9
0.32
Brayden Point is an amazing offensive player, but when he’s on the ice this season he’s not exactly tilting it at five-on-five. That’s despite spending a lot of time between Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel. When Point is on, the Lightning give up 0.32 more xGA/60 this season compared to when he’s off. That’s the 19th-worst mark in the league among forwards and second-worst among top line centers. Tough minutes isn’t much of an excuse either considering Anthony Cirelli soaks up the team’s most challenging matchups.
Point’s defensive game looks questionable going into the playoffs and that’s not a comforting fact when Tampa Bay’s two most likely opponents have Aleksander Barkov and Auston Matthews at the top of the lineup.
10. Edmonton Oilers, 40-24-5
Last week: 10
Mark L. rank: 9
Dom L. rank: 11
118
The last time Connor McDavid paced for under 120 points was 2017-18 — seven years ago. This year he has 89 points in 62 games, a 117.7-point pace. For any other player that’s an incredible season. For McDavid, a player who has paced for 143 points per 82 games over the previous four seasons, it’s a disappointment.
While there are a plethora of scary things about this current iteration of the Oilers — forward depth, finishing, goaltending — they become even scarier without McDavid at the absolute peak of his powers. His immense value is the thing that makes the Oilers one of the top contenders where McDavid is so good that all those other problems don’t really matter. We saw that in last year’s Stanley Cup Final run.
Edmonton’s scariest thought: what if those days are over and this — a sub-120-point McDavid — is the new normal?
Actually, after McDavid left the game with an injury, maybe there’s an even scarier thought.
11. Los Angeles Kings, 37-21-9
Last week: 11
Mark L. rank: 11
Dom L. rank: 11
-34
Los Angeles has the league’s worst penalty differential and that feels like a bad sign for two key reasons.
The first is that the Kings’ power play is not great. Perhaps it’s the team’s lack of star power, but what was already an issue last season is an even bigger one with the Kings scoring only 5.4 goals per 60 on the man advantage. That’s the fifth-worst mark in the league. The second is that the Kings will likely play Edmonton in the first round, again. While the Kings may be strong at five-on-five, they will be at a major special teams disadvantage against the Oilers. Again. Staying disciplined will be crucial, otherwise this season will end the same way the last three have.
12. Ottawa Senators, 36-27-5
Last week: 12
Mark L. rank: 12
Dom L. rank: 13
19
Should Senators fans be rooting for the provincial rival Maple Leafs? For entertainment value, absolutely, we all want to see a Battle of Ontario. But based on regular-season results, Ottawa (assuming it holds on to the first wild-card spot in the East after its six-game win streak this month) should be hoping the Leafs can win the Atlantic. In five games against Tampa Bay and Florida, the Senators have given up 19 goals, including consecutive 5-1 losses on an early February road trip. Against Toronto, however, Ottawa is a sparkling 3-0 with only three goals against.
13. New Jersey Devils, 37-27-6
Last week: 13
Mark L. rank: 13
Dom L. rank: 15
.829
That’s Jacob Markstrom’s save percentage in his five games since returning from an MCL sprain. It’s bad enough that the Devils’ play has dropped off so precipitously since Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton were injured. With them, their expected-goals share was 52.28 percent, and their actual goal differential was 117-105. Since they were injured, their expected-goals share is 45.28 percent, and they’ve been outscored 20-13. But that will hardly matter if they keep getting this kind of goaltending from Markstrom, the guy they brought in to finally stabilize the lineup’s biggest weakness. Markstrom has given up 21 goals in five starts since returning March 2, including two six-goal games against Winnipeg and Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes must be licking their chops thinking about that probable first-round matchup.
14. Minnesota Wild, 39-25-5
Last week: 14
Mark L. rank: 14
Dom L. rank: 14
46.7
Since the holiday break, the Wild have played all but three games without Kirill Kaprizov with the results being middling at best. While the team’s record has been fine in that context, their underlying numbers have left a lot to be desired. Minnesota has just a 46.7 percent xG rate since that time, the seventh-worst mark in the league. Any team would struggle without their best player — and in Minnesota’s case, the Wild have been missing a few other players too — but it’s still striking how mid the team looks without Kaprizov.
15. St. Louis Blues, 35-28-7
Last week: 22
Mark L. rank: 16
Dom L. rank: 12
6.5
No, this isn’t about all the $6.5 million deals that St. Louis has on the books, it’s their power play xG rate per 60 since the 4 Nations break. It’s the third-worst mark in the league and well south of the scintillating 11.5 goals per 60 mark they’re actually getting. Usually, that’s a regression indicator.
With how great the Blues are playing right now, perhaps that’s much ado about nothing. But for a team on the playoff bubble, any red flag is worth pointing out. The Blues have been a terrifying team under Jim Montgomery and would be a terrifying draw as a wildcard team. With how they’ve played, it’s a lot easier coming up with scary numbers for their competition. But there’s still work to do and the team’s power play could be a house of cards.
16. Vancouver Canucks. 32-25-12
Last week: 15
Mark L. rank: 16
Dom L. rank: 15
18
Despite missing 14 games to injury, Quinn Hughes still leads the Canucks in points by a whopping 18. There’s two ways of looking at that.
- Wow, Hughes is awesome.
- Wow, the rest of the team stinks.
Maybe “stinks” is the wrong word, but it’s extremely rare for a good team to be led in scoring by a defenseman — no matter how good the defenseman is. Usually the simplest explanation is the correct one: this is not a good team.
What happened to the team with the Midas Touch we all loved so much last season? Vancouver’s offense has felt anemic and stale all season with some games being almost painful to watch. The team just isn’t very dangerous with the puck and it’s that lack of offensive oomph that has the Canucks in the thick of the wildcard race instead of contending. Outside of Hughes, this is not a scary team.
17. Montreal Canadiens, 33-27-7
Last week: 19
Mark L. rank: 17
Dom L. rank: 17
106.1
Montreal’s PDO since the 4 Nations break in all situations is sky high. The Canadiens’ goals percentage at five-on-five is way ahead of expected, and the same goes for both the power play and penalty kill. Are the Canadiens a young team finding their way, or a team of young hot-shots flying too close to the sun? If it’s the former, they’ll need to start controlling the run of play more going forward.
18. New York Islanders, 32-28-8
Last week: 23
Mark L. rank: 20
Dom L. rank: 18
11.5
As it stands now, the Islanders’ power-play percentage is the fourth-worst in the salary-cap era. The three that were worse (the 2020-21 Ducks, the 2013-14 Panthers and the 2020-21 Red Wings) all finished in last or second-to-last. The Isles, meanwhile, are fighting for a playoff spot.
Are they good? Are they bad? Are they a sleeping giant? Are they scrappy overachievers? Do they have a future? Will they attempt to retool this summer? Rebuild? Does Lou Lamoriello, the most secretive and unknowable general manager in the league, even know?
19. Calgary Flames, 32-25-11
Last week: 20
Mark L. rank: 19
Dom L. rank: 19
76 percent
Calgary’s current odds to make the playoffs are 16 percent. Calgary’s current odds of finishing in the league’s bottom 10 are eight percent. That leaves a very wide range of outcomes where neither happens which is unfortunately terrible news for Flames fans given the conditions of the first-round pick Calgary owes to Montreal. That pick was dealt to get out of Sean Monahan’s contract and will be the earlier of Calgary’s two picks (the Flames own Florida’s 2025 first) if Calgary’s pick lands outside the top 10. At 76 percent, that unfortunately looks to be the likeliest scenario.
Calgary’s best bet right now is an outright tank job and that might not be too difficult given the way the Flames have played of late. Over the last month, Calgary’s 45 percent xG at five-on-five is ahead of only Anaheim and Chicago. Then again — Dustin Wolf can certainly change the math on his own with how he’s played this season.
20. Utah HC, 31-27-11
Last week: 18
Mark L. rank: 18
Dom L. rank: 21
~12
That’s the rough difference between the expected-goals percentage for both Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther and their actual goals share. In other words, the two young Utah stars are significantly outplaying their underlying metrics. Maybe it’s just two hyper-talented players showing their world-class finishing ability, each of them shooting better than 14 percent. Or maybe it’s a bubble just waiting to burst, ruining one of the feel-good stories of the season. (Note: Feeling good does not apply to Arizona Coyotes fans watching from afar.)
21. New York Rangers, 33-31-6
Last week: 17
Mark L. rank: 21
Dom L. rank: 20
12.6
Only the Ducks are giving up more high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes than the Rangers. They gave up 15 in 49 five-on-five minutes in their loss to the Flames on Tuesday, an effort that was so poor that, had it been on the road, you could have envisioned Peter Laviolette taking Gerard Gallant’s cab home.
22. Columbus Blue Jackets, 31-28-9
Last week: 16
Mark L. rank: 23
Dom L. rank: 22
2
There’s good news for the plummeting Blue Jackets in that they’ve had rotten puck luck — to the tune of a 968 PDO — in losing six of seven and losing their grip on a wild-card spot. But there are certainly warning signs, too. One of those is Kirill Marchenko, who has just one goal and two points in those seven games, shooting a mere 6.7 percent. In the 57 previous games, Marchenko was better than a point a game with 23 goals and 36 assists in 57 games, shooting 15.5 percent. Was the Marchenko that helped carry the Jackets into the playoff picture as the season’s best story playing over his head, and is this the inevitable course correction? Or is it just a blip?
23. Detroit Red Wings, 32-30-6
Last week: 21
Mark L. rank: 22
Dom L. rank: 23
1.99
Since the 4 Nations break, the Red Wings are 4-8-1 and have basically kissed their playoff chances goodbye during that time. Detroit still has a shot of making it, but the road ahead is tough given the team’s grueling schedule.
One major issue: not enough goals at five-on-five. The Red Wings are one of three teams scoring under two goals-per-60 this season and it’s safe to say that the Flames and Predators aren’t good company. Finishing has been a glaring problem all season, but it’s been an especially big problem over this recent stretch. Since the break, the Red Wings are still scoring just 1.99 goals-per-60 despite raising their expected goals rate considerably from 2.21 to 2.91. That latter mark is the third-best in the league over the time frame, up from fourth worst beforehand. And it just hasn’t mattered.
The Red Wings newfound chance generation may be a good sign for the future, but for the present they need real goals not expected ones. That was already an issue before Todd McLellan became coach and it feels like it’s been exacerbated of late.
24. Boston Bruins, 30-31-9
Last week: 24
Mark L. rank: 24
Dom L. rank: 24
2.4
For the price of $12.75 million, Dallas got Mikko Rantanen with some change to spare. A superstar for the foreseeable future. Boston has Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov whose combined Net Rating this year is plus-2.4. Are the two players better than they’re given credit for? Probably. Are they worth $12.75 million combined? Absolutely not.
That’s the thing about calling cap space valuable: it depends how you use it. In this league, it’s very easy to misuse and Boston will be paying the piper for it for a very long time. In Year 1, the Bruins are already not getting what they paid for.
25. Anaheim Ducks, 30-31-8
Last week: 28
Mark L. rank: 25
Dom L. rank: 25
-5.3
We are still waiting for Anaheim’s ducklings to be all grown up and the 2024-25 season has been another cruel reminder that there’s still a long way to go. The Ducks have seven young core pieces on the rise — Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Trevor Zegras, Jackson Lacombe, Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger — and only one, Lacombe, has been a difference-maker this year. The combined Net Rating of the seven this season is minus-5.3 which is decidedly below average. And that’s with Lacombe’s plus-5.6 factored in. The rest have averaged between fine (McTavish, Gauthier, Carlsson), to actively detrimental (Mintyukov, Zegras). Is there a light at the end of this tunnel?
26. Pittsburgh Penguins, 28-32-10
Last week: 27
Mark L. rank: 28
Dom L. rank: 26
17
That’s how many players on the current Penguins roster are signed through at least the end of next season. And their average age is more than 30 years old. And Pittsburgh was 20th in Scott Wheeler’s recent prospect-pool rankings. And they recently won four in a row, leaving them, at the moment, with a measly 6.5-percent chance of winning the draft lottery. Settle in, Pittsburgh. This is going to take a while.
Wins ruining the tank?
27. Philadelphia Flyers, 28-34-8
Last week: 25
Mark L. rank: 27
Dom L. rank: 27
Minus-29.3
How bad have the Flyers goalies been this season? Replacement-level goaltending would have meant nearly 30 fewer goals-against. Samuel Ersson is dead last in the league at a minus-14.92 GSAx, and Ivan Fedotov and Aleksei Kolosov are both in the bottom 14, as well — out of 93 goalies to appear in the NHL this season. And guess what? All three of them are signed through next season.
28. Seattle Kraken, 30-35-5
Last week: 29
Mark L. rank: 26
Dom L. rank: 28
$37,500,000
Only two players have played over 500 minutes this season and have registered a worse xG rate than Chandler Stephenson’s 37.1 percent: Nolan Allan and Mitchell Chaffee. Directly ahead of Stephenson are Barclay Goodrow and Cody Ceci’s time spent on the Sharks. To put it lightly, that is not good company. Stephenson’s 48 points in 69 games is nice, but getting absolutely crushed to that degree at five-on-five isn’t excusable. Seattle’s scariest number is how much money the Kraken still owe him over the next six seasons. Woof. What did they see in Stephenson to give him that deal in the first place?
29. Nashville Predators, 25-35-8
Last week: 26
Mark L. rank: 29
Dom L. rank: 30
29.0
Opponents are averaging nearly 29 scoring chances per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Brady Skjei on the ice this season, the worst rate for any regular Predators defenseman. Nashville has been outscored 57-39 during Skjei’s minutes. Already at 30 years old, Skjei is in just the first year of a seven-year, $49-million deal, and looks nothing like the reliable, productive performer he was in Carolina. All three splashy signings Nashville made last summer — Skjei, Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault — aren’t looking so hot right now, but Skjei’s looks like it might age the worst.
30. Buffalo Sabres, 27-34-6
Last week: 30
Mark L. rank: 30
Dom L. rank: 30
3
That’s how many more goals the Sabres have scored this season than they’ve given up. Yes, Buffalo is in the black at five-on-five. That’s better than the playoff-bound Wild and Senators, and the playoff-hopeful Canucks, Flames and Rangers. It’s only three away from the Cup-contending Oilers and Avalanche. And yet here are the Sabres, 29th in the league in points percentage, missing the playoffs for the 14th consecutive season.
We know Sabres fans deserve better, but do the Sabres themselves? Are they simply victims of bad luck? Well, their PDO is 100.5. So if anything, the math suggests it could actually get a little worse. Sorry.
31. Chicago Blackhawks, 20-40-9
Last week: 31
Mark L. rank: 31
Dom L. rank: 31
10
That’s how many pointless games Connor Bedard has had in his last 13 overall. That’s also the length, in minutes, of the two misconduct penalties he received in consecutive games against San Jose and Vancouver. The frustration level is high, as evidenced by Bedard throwing his helmet down the hallway after his second such penalty.
Countless factors explain Bedard’s stagnant scoring this season, most notably his replacement-level linemates and both his coaches’ insistence on changing those linemates on a nearly nightly basis. The really scary thing is that if GM Kyle Davidson can’t somehow convince Mitch Marner that Chicago is the place to be this summer, it might not be all that much better next season. Bedard is not the problem. But the Blackhawks have not been putting him in a position to succeed, to say the least.
32. San Jose Sharks, 18-42-9
Last week: 32
Mark L. rank: 32
Dom L. rank: 32
-235
Last season the Sharks had a minus-146 goal differential. This year they’re on pace for minus-89, giving San Jose a two-year average of minus-117. That’s the worst mark in the analytics era with only five other teams at minus-100 or worse. If you want to understand just how bleak the last two seasons of Sharks hockey has been, that’s the scariest number of them all.
(Top photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
