Major-league starting rotations have never been more different from club to club; some contending teams put major emphasis on — and financial resources toward — starters who can provide 170-plus innings per season, while other contenders focus on quantity over quality in their rotations, along with elite bullpens, to lessen the risk of injuries to high-paid starters, preferring to allocate those dollars to sluggers instead.
Big-league pitchers have more velocity, and vertical and horizontal break on their breaking balls, than ever before, but at the same time, bulk innings have never been more valuable to clubs to save rotation and bullpen arms.
With Opening Day almost here, let’s look at how the starting rotations across the league stack up. (In case you missed it, here is my ranking of the Opening Day lineups.)
As the old adage goes, you can never have too much starting pitching. I decided to rank each team’s starters rather than the overall staffs because I found myself using starting pitching strength above all other aspects in predicting how teams would fare this year. For example, the Mets have a top lineup and bullpen, but because I don’t rate their rotation as highly as the Phillies or Braves, I predicted they’d finish third in the NL East — despite believing this team potentially could win not only the division but also the World Series.
Here is my ranking of the Opening Day starting rotations for all 30 teams.
Major-league pitchers listed as “injured” are expected to miss time or start the season on the injured list.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, Landon Knack (minors), Bobby Miller (minors), Justin Wrobleski (minors), Nick Frasso (minors)
Injured: Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt, River Ryan, Gavin Stone
It’s amazing to think that the defending World Series champs in theory will be adding three No. 1-type starters to an already deep staff: Ohtani, who is expected to return to the mound sometime in May; Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner; and Sasaki, who along with a triple-digit fastball has perhaps the best split-finger in the world. Add that trio to Yamamoto and Glasnow and the Dodgers literally have five aces — all with strikeout per nine inning ratios north of 10. The only question remaining is which one will battle Zack Wheeler and Paul Skenes for this year’s NL Cy Young. And we didn’t even mention the return of May from the injured list, and Gonsolin, who will start the year on the IL with a back injury, and of course, the future Hall of Famer Kershaw, who is coming back from knee and toe injuries. No other team in the sport can run out that many top-of-the-rotation arms, nor is there a team with as much starting pitching depth as the Dodgers.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Aaron Nola, Jesús Luzardo, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Painter (minors)
Injured: Ranger Suárez
The Phillies have the best five-man rotation in the NL East and one of the game’s top pitching prospects, Painter, waiting in the wings in the minors. Wheeler is my preseason pick for the NL Cy Young Award this year, and Sánchez continues to develop into one of the best left-handed starters in the league. Nola has made at least 32 starts in each of the past six full seasons (excluding 2020), pitching more than 190 innings in each of the past three. Suárez (back stiffness) will start the season on the IL but shouldn’t be out long; he’s coming off a 12-win season in which he logged a 3.46 ERA but was much better in the first half (2.76 ERA) than the second half (5.65). Luzardo, who was acquired in an offseason trade with the Marlins, looked healthy this spring and could be a big difference-maker for Philadelphia.
3. Seattle Mariners
Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock
Injured: George Kirby
The Mariners have the best rotation in the American League, and I was going to rank them second on this list until Kirby (shoulder inflammation) was shut down earlier in the month. Gilbert has become the ace of this staff after moving past Castillo, and I’m expecting Miller and Woo to do the same this year, with Woo one of my favorite breakout candidates. Gilbert, Kirby and Castillo posted ERAs between 3.23 and 3.64 last year, while both Woo and Miller posted-sub 3.00 ERAs. All of them except Castillo, 32, should continue improving over the next couple of seasons.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt
Injured: Jordan Montgomery
The Diamondbacks are positioned to give the Dodgers a race in the NL West and should be considered a wild-card favorite, mainly because of their starting pitching, which is dominant and deep. Burnes and Gallen should be in the NL Cy Young Award conversation while Pfaadt might be ready to take a big step and be a difference-maker for them. Rodriguez had a great spring and is showing signs of returning to his form of 2023, when he won 13 games and pitched to a 3.30 ERA over 26 starts. Jordan Montgomery is set to have a second Tommy John surgery, likely spelling the end of his brutal run in Arizona.
5. Atlanta Braves
Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes, AJ Smith-Shawver
Injured: Spencer Strider
The Braves are thrilled to watch Strider not only throw in the high-90s again but also complement the four-seamer with the slider, curveball and changeup. He’ll start the year on the IL as he works back from internal-brace surgery, but should be activated sometime in mid-to-late April. Sale won his first Cy Young Award last year, leading the league in wins (18), ERA (2.38) and strikeouts (225) for the pitching triple crown. The Strider/Sale combo is as good as it gets when they’re pitching at their best.
Schwellenbach is the real deal, and we saw last year — a 3.35 ERA over 123 2/3 innings, 96th percentile in chase rate, 95th percentile in walk rate — should be just the start of a great career. López transformed into a more than solid mid-rotation starter last season, finishing with a sparkling 1.99 ERA. However, there are questions at the back end of the rotation, as Atlanta is counting on Holmes and Smith-Shawver to make up for the significant free-agent losses of Max Fried and Charlie Morton.
6. Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe
Injured: Alex Cobb, José Urquidy
Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, is arguably the best starter in the sport. Flaherty is coming off a strong bounce-back season in which he went 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA and 194 strikeouts. Olson and Mize are primed for breakout-type seasons. Jobe is my pick for AL Rookie of the Year. I think he’ll quickly become the Tigers’ third-best starter early in the year and their second-best, behind only Skubal, by the end of the regular season. He’s that good.
7. Kansas City Royals
Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, Michael Lorenzen
Injured: Alec Marsh, Kyle Wright
Two years ago, the Royals lost 106 games, but off the field they made a series of moves to significantly bolster their starting pitching ranks. In June 2023, they landed Ragans, their current ace, in a trade with the Rangers for Aroldis Chapman. Ragans went 11-9 last season with a 3.14 ERA over 32 starts. In December 2023, they signed Lugo and Wacha, and both veterans have exceeded expectations and pitched with consistency since. (Kansas City rewarded Wacha with a three-year, $51 million deal in November.) This past offseason, the Royals dealt Brady Singer to the Reds for Jonathan India because they were confident Bubic was ready to take off. He posted a 2.67 ERA over 27 relief appearances last year with 39 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings. Lorenzen pitched to a 3.31 ERA last season over 130 1/3 innings. This is an underrated, solid rotation.
8. Tampa Bay Rays
Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen
Injured: Shane McClanahan
The Rays’ rotation would be higher on this list if it weren’t for the injury history and risk that comes with this group. McClanahan will miss the start of the season due to a nerve issue in his triceps. He and the Rays are happy it isn’t something worse, but it’s a setback for the two-time All-Star, who had a strong spring in his return from Tommy John surgery. He’s still a Comeback Player of the Year candidate. Bradley, Pepiot and Baz are young pitchers with tremendous upside, and it’s going to be fun to watch them develop. If the Rays’ starters can stay relatively healthy and pitch to their potential, they could end up as a top-five rotation. Another key question surrounding this group will be how much run support it gets.
9. San Diego Padres
Michael King, Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, Kyle Hart
Injured: Yu Darvish, Matt Waldron, Joe Musgrove
In King and Cease, the Padres have two potential aces, but both will be free agents at season’s end, and the Padres continue to listen to trade offers. Will they keep them and try to win? Trade them at the deadline? That storyline won’t go away. The Padres hope to get Darvish (elbow inflammation) back before too long, but Musgrove is out for the season after having Tommy John surgery in October. Pivetta, who signed a back-loaded contract in February, could be a huge addition to help fill the void. He’s been working on early-count outs, and has moved a few inches to the first-base side of the rubber to open up the plate a little to get more directional. The back of the Padres’ rotation should keep them in games and in the wild-card race all season if the pitchers stay healthy.
10. Houston Astros
Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Hayden Wesneski
Injured: Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., JP France, Luis Garcia
Valdez is on a mission in his free-agent walk year. The lefty has one of the best sinkers in the game and always delivers a high ground-ball rate. Brown profiles as a future ace and should be ready to take another step; after recording 179 strikeouts last season, he might reach 200 K’s for the first time in his career. Arrighetti made my breakout team for 2025 after a solid rookie season in which he logged a 3.18 ERA over his final 12 appearances. I love Blanco’s toughness and deceptive changeup, and I’m excited to see if Wesneski, part of the return in the Kyle Tucker trade, can better command his power stuff and become a solid starter for Houston. Finally, don’t bet against McCullers making a comeback; he looked good this spring.
11. Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney, Bailey Falter, Carmen Mlodzinski, Bubba Chandler (minors)
Injured: Jared Jones, Johan Oviedo
Las Vegas has Skenes as the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award for a reason. He’s a true ace who’s always trying to find ways to improve. He’s a generational talent and a must-watch every time he starts. I also love Jones, who is going to begin the season on the IL with elbow inflammation; if he can avoid surgery, recover and stay healthy, he has a chance to be a dude, not just a guy. Keller started to take off last year and is trending in the right direction. And I can’t wait until the Pirates deem Chandler, their top pitching prospect, major-league-ready — because when he is, the Buccos will have a true postseason rotation.
12. Boston Red Sox
Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Tanner Houck, Richard Fitts, Sean Newcomb
Injured: Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Lucas Giolito, Patrick Sandoval
The Red Sox traded for an ace in the offseason, landing Crochet from the White Sox, and he’s my preseason pick to win the AL Cy Young Award this year. I loved the Buehler signing as it gives Boston a solid 1-2 punch at the top of its rotation, if he can stay healthy and pitch like he did in October for the Dodgers. Houck was an All-Star last season and finished with a 3.12 ERA over 30 starts. The key for Boston will be getting the rest of the starters, and particularly Bello and Crawford, healthy. The Red Sox have solid starting pitching depth and are now ready to contend for the AL East title.
13. Texas Rangers
Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Tyler Mahle
Injured: Cody Bradford, Jon Gray
DeGrom looks healthy and is pitching like the deGrom of old. Can he avoid injuries and make 25 starts this year? Eovaldi has become the leader of this staff and is a steady postseason winner, but the key for the Rangers’ rotation this year will be the development of Rocker and Leiter, who both looked great in spring training. Bradford (elbow soreness) will start the season on the IL, but would give Texas a boost if he returns to form; he started to break out last season and is one of the most underrated lefties in the AL.
14. Baltimore Orioles
Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich, Kyle Gibson
Injured: Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Tyler Wells
The Orioles lost Corbin Burnes to the Diamondbacks in free agency and then suffered a big blow in spring training when Rodriguez developed inflammation in his pitching elbow that led to a cortisone shot. They made two solid veteran pickups in the offseason, landing Charlie Morton (and his 12-6 curveball and leadership qualities) and Sugano, who could end up being the winter’s best value signing. Don’t sleep on Kremer and Povich either. With Rodriguez’s outlook uncertain, the Orioles last week added another veteran, Kyle Gibson, who returns to Baltimore after posting a 4.24 ERA over 169 2/3 innings for St. Louis last season.
15. Toronto Blue Jays
José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, Max Scherzer, Yariel Rodriguez
Injured: Alek Manoah
The Blue Jays added Scherzer in free agency, but can the future Hall of Famer stay healthy and avoid further nerve issues in his pitching arm and thumb? He certainly threw well in spring training and will be a huge help if they can keep him on the active list. He’ll make his Blue Jays debut Saturday against the Orioles. Berríos will be their Opening Day starter, and he, Gausman, Bassitt and Francis will keep Toronto in most games. This is a solid but not spectacular rotation that should be able to keep the Blue Jays in contention all season, as long as they get more run support than last year.
16. Minnesota Twins
Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddack, David Festa (minors), Zebby Matthews (minors)
The Twins, like the Jays, have a solid rotation with López, Ryan and Ober able to match up with most teams’ top three starters. López had 15 wins last year and logged a 4.08 ERA over 185 1/3 innings. Ober won 12 games with a 3.98 ERA in 178 2/3 innings, and Ryan went 7-7 with a 3.60 ERA. Woods-Richardson and Paddack both have more potential — can they offer more production this year than they’ve delivered so far in their major-league careers?
17. New York Yankees
Carlos Rodón, Max Fried, Marcus Stroman, Will Warren, Carlos Carrasco
Injured: Luis Gil, Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, JT Brubaker
The Yankees would have been fourth on this list if Cole hadn’t required Tommy John surgery and Gil, last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, hadn’t suffered a lat injury that will keep him out for the first few months of the season. Schmidt will also start the season on the IL with shoulder soreness. However, the Yankees still have a solid rotation, led by their biggest offseason acquisition, Fried, and his fellow lefty Rodón, who will be their Opening Day starter. Stroman and Warren are solid back-of-the-rotation options, but the Yankees probably will need to trade for another starter if they hope to win the AL East.
18. Cincinnati Reds
Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez, Carson Spiers, Chase Burns (minors)
Injured: Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder (minors), Brandon Williamson,
The Reds’ rotation has the potential to develop into a top-five rotation when Lowder and Burns are major-league-ready. (Lowder has been on a slower progression to get ready this spring after experiencing elbow discomfort.). Meanwhile, I believe Greene will be a top-five Cy Young Award candidate, Lodolo has breakout potential and Singer will provide solid bulk innings. The key to the rotation could be Abbott, when he’s healthy; he went 10-10 with a 3.72 ERA last season and is currently working back from a shoulder injury.
19. San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Landen Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Kyle Harrison (minors)
The Giants’ rotation has a solid top three with Webb, Verlander and Ray. Webb finished sixth in the NL Cy Young Award voting last year, second in 2023 and 11th in 2022. Ray won the AL Cy Young in 2021 and Verlander, of course, is a three-time winner. The biggest question for this rotation may be whether Verlander and Ray stay healthy and make 25-30 starts. Hicks made a strong transition from reliever to starter last season (4.10 ERA over 20 starts and nine relief appearances), and Birdsong and Harrison have promising arsenals if they can be developed properly.
20. New York Mets
Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, Blade Tidwell (minors), Brandon Sproat (minors)
Injured: Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas
The Mets were able to bring back their ace from last year, Manaea, who changed his entire way of pitching en route to delivering a 3.47 ERA and 184 strikeouts over 32 starts. He’ll miss the start of the season with an oblique injury. They signed Holmes, who added a changeup and cutter, and the results in spring training were impressive enough that the former reliever will be their Opening Day starter. Senga is healthy and his “ghost fork” pitch is still unhittable. Peterson and Megill are underrated and Canning is overrated. The oft-injured Montas is out with a lat sprain. But perhaps the most exciting development for the Mets is how impressive Tidwell and Sproat looked in spring training; both should debut and impact the Mets rotation later this year.
21. Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, Ben Brown, Colin Rea, Cade Horton (minors)
Injured: Javier Assad
Imanaga pitched four no-hit innings on Opening Day against the Dodgers, although he did walk four, but he’s still clearly the ace of this staff. Steele should be in the running for the ERA title once again, Taillon should provide bulk innings, and if Boyd can stay healthy, he could be a difference-maker for them. All eyes will be on Horton, whom the Cubs hope develops enough to help their rotation by the All-Star break.
22. Milwaukee Brewers
Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, Tyler Alexander, Jacob Misiorowski (minors).
Injured: Brandon Woodruff, DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, Robert Gasser, Tobias Myers
The Brewers’ rotation is anchored by Peralta, who had 200 or more strikeouts in each of the past two years. They acquired Civale last year at the trade deadline from the Rays and Cortes this past offseason from the Yankees; both are solid mid-rotation starters when healthy. They added Quintana in March after he posted a 3.75 ERA for the Mets in 31 starts last year. A key storyline to watch will be the attempted return of Woodruff, the one-time staff ace, who continues to rehab his shoulder. This rotation could be really good, mediocre or, quite frankly, not good enough.
23. Cleveland Guardians
Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively, Gavin Williams, Luis L. Ortiz, Logan Allen
Injured: Shane Bieber, Slade Cecconi, John Means
The Guardians made it to the ALCS last year despite having one of the worst rotations in the league. They did it with an elite bullpen and strong defense all over the diamond. They picked up Ortiz from the Pirates and Cecconi from the Diamondbacks this past offseason to help fortify the rotation. Bibee, their ace, just signed an extension, and Williams is among my breakout candidates. But the key for this rotation — and perhaps the Guardians’ season — is how Bieber pitches later in the year when he returns from Tommy John surgery.
24. Miami Marlins
Sandy Alcantara, Max Meyer, Cal Quantrill, Connor Gillispie, Valente Bellozo
Injured: Eury Pérez, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera
Alcantara has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and, based on a small spring sample, is pitching like he did when he won the NL Cy Young Award in 2022. The 29-year-old doesn’t have an innings limit, and if he stays healthy, he’ll be the most sought-after starting pitcher at the trade deadline. He would come with two-plus years of team control. Pérez has Cy Young Award potential, but he’ll miss most of this year as he works back from his own Tommy John surgery. Weathers will start the season on the IL but looked like the Marlins’ most-improved pitcher in camp. Quantrill, a free-agent signing, should provide veteran leadership and bulk innings, and will probably be on the trade block at the deadline. Meyer is starting to harness his control and command, something the Marlins also hope Cabrera (blister) can do when he returns from the IL.
25. St. Louis Cardinals
Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore, Steven Matz, Michael McGreevy (minors)
Injured: Zack Thompson
Gray’s velocity was down in spring training. He’s the Cardinals’ best starter but has a no-trade clause and doesn’t want to be moved. Fedde and Mikolas are likely trade candidates this year. Liberatore will get another shot in the rotation; Matz will start the season in the bullpen but also get some starts. The Cardinals will monitor McGreevy’s development this year; he’s an interesting starting pitching prospect. St. Louis is solid defensively, which helps the rotation.
26. Athletics
Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears, Joey Estes
The Athletics improved their rotation with the additions of Severino and Springs in the offseason. They signed Severino, who went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA last season for the Mets, to a two-year, $45 million deal that includes a $22 million player option in 2027. Springs, who was acquired in a trade with the Rays, posted a 3.27 ERA over seven starts last year after returning from Tommy John surgery. Sears and Bido can certainly keep the A’s in games.
27. Colorado Rockies
Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez, Ryan Feltner, Antonio Senzatela, Bradley Blalock, Chase Dollander (minors)
Injured: Austin Gomber
Freeland will be their Opening Day starter for the fourth time. Márquez is back after missing almost all of last season with an elbow injury. The Rockies’ most intriguing starter is Dollander, whom they drafted with the No. 9 overall pick in 2023 out of Tennessee. Dollander logged a 2.59 ERA with 169 strikeouts in 118 innings last season between High A and Double A.
28. Washington Nationals
MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, Michael Soroka, Cade Cavalli (minors), Jarlin Susana (Minors)
Injured: Josiah Gray
Gore is coming off a career-best season in which he posted a 3.90 ERA over 32 starts with 181 strikeouts in 166 1/3 innings. He could join the 200-strikeout club this year for the first time. He has reduced his walk rate from 4.8 per nine innings to 3.8 to 3.5 over the past three years, and if the lefty can get it down to 2.9 or 3.0, perhaps he’ll make his first All-Star team. Williams knows how to pitch, Irvin continues to develop and Soroka, who was once a top pitching prospect in the Braves’ system, has shown signs that he could be ready to contribute again. The Nationals also hope Cavalli, who’s had a long road back from Tommy John surgery, will be ready to contribute in the majors in the second half of the season.
29. Los Angeles Angels
Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano, Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
Injured: Robert Stephenson
Kikuchi was the Angels’ biggest offseason acquisition (three-year, $63 million deal). He was dealt from the Blue Jays to the Astros at last year’s trade deadline, and after making changes to his pitch usage, posted a 2.70 ERA over 10 starts with 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings for Houston. There are more questions than answers for the rest of the rotation. Soriano, Anderson and Hendricks are all veterans who are either in decline or middle- to back-of-the-rotation-type starters.
30. Chicago White Sox
Sean Burke, Martín Pérez, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Shane Smith
Injured: Drew Thorpe, Ky Bush
The White Sox starters went 26-72 last year with a 4.62 ERA and 2.33 K/BB, which ranked 27th. The Sox dealt their best starter, Garrett Crochet (3.58 ERA, 209 strikeouts) to Boston in the offseason. I really don’t know what to expect from this group. It’s probably not a good sign that Pérez, who last year had a 4.53 ERA over 26 starts, is expected to be one of their better starting pitchers.
(Top illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Christian Petersen, Elsa, Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
