With the Premier League title race and relegation battle seemingly wrapped up before April, you might think there is little peril remaining in the final weeks of 2024-25.
Fear not. Any thrill-seekers need only look as far as the race for Champions League spots, with as many as seven teams still fighting to dine at Europe’s top table next season.
Liverpool, Arsenal, and Nottingham Forest have separated themselves from the remaining pack at the top of the table but based on the latest UEFA coefficient standings, fifth is enough for a place in the 2025-26 Champions League. One more win for any of the five English sides remaining in a European competition this season should confirm that additional spot in the continent’s top tournament.
So, with just five points separating fourth-placed Chelsea and 10th-placed Bournemouth, predicting who might stake a claim to those lucrative spots is as difficult as you would imagine.
Of course, that won’t stop us from trying to predict the final league standings.
To do so, we can turn to Opta’s predicted league table. This table is established by calculating a figure for each team’s attacking and defensive strength based on their results in previous seasons, with the algorithm weighted towards more recent results.
A match between any two sides can be simulated many times to see who wins more often. What the grid below displays is the average of the results of each of these 100,000 simulations.
Manchester City and Newcastle United look to have the strongest probability of making it over the line, with Chelsea predicted to drop two places and settle for a spot in the Europa League next season.
The difficulty of City and Newcastle’s remaining fixtures might have a lot to do with that predicted configuration.
Using Opta’s Power Rankings — a global ranking system containing more than 13,000 clubs rated between zero (lowest) and 100 (highest) — Pep Guardiola’s side have the easiest run-in of any side in the Premier League, with a home fixture against Aston Villa deemed to be the trickiest clash in their final nine games.
While Newcastle have an extra game to squeeze in, their run-in is statistically the sixth-easiest in the league.
Things will rarely go to plan in an increasingly competitive Premier League, so what do the underlying numbers suggest for each team? Let The Athletic’s data-driven take on the remaining teams fighting for those European spots be your guide.
Manchester City
Current position: 5th
Predicted position: 4th
In a season of dismay for Manchester City, it would still be impressive for Guardiola’s side to clinch fourth spot before resetting their squad for the next campaign.
Aside from their well-established injury issues, City’s problems with their counter-pressing have been glaringly obvious. They have lacked the requisite intensity to close down their opponent in transitional moments, leaving them vulnerable to the counter-attack.
The numbers reflect this neatly, with a 10-game rolling chart of their direct attacks conceded — as a proxy of counter-attacking play — showing a sharp uptick this season compared with previous campaigns.
City’s inconsistency has been unrecognisable from their typical dead-eyed performances that we have grown accustomed to seeing in recent years. Guardiola’s men last won three Premier League games in a row in October — but they have the chance to change that in the final weeks.
On paper, City have the most straightforward run-in among all Premier League teams, suggesting a gentle jog to fourth spot is the most likely outcome. They even have the wiggle room to finish one position lower but given their volatility, it might not be straightforward.
Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Leicester City (H), April 6 — Manchester United (A), April 12 — Crystal Palace (H), April 19 — Everton (A), April 28 — Aston Villa (H), May 3 — Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), May 10 — Southampton (A), May 18 — Bournemouth (H), May 25 — Fulham (A)
Omar Marmoush could help City salvage their season (Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)
Newcastle United
Current position: 6th
Predicted position: 5th
Newcastle are flying high from winning the Carabao Cup, their first major domestic trophy in 70 years, but Eddie Howe’s meticulous personality will guard against complacency.
A return to the Champions League is in reach. Howe likes to play with intensity in and out of possession — a trait that has returned this season after a jaded, injury-hit 2023-24 campaign.
Using statistics from data company Footovision, Newcastle are among the top three Premier League teams for the share of time spent sprinting, both in and out of possession, highlighting how much of their game is predicated on physical output.
A stable, injury-free run would allow Howe to keep that intensity high. If the midfield trio of Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton can stay fit and firing, Newcastle could dominate the midfield battle in every game they play.
Throw in the mercurial form of Alexander Isak, and Howe’s men have the quality to return to the European stage.
Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Brentford (H), April 7 — Leicester (A), April 13 — Man Utd (H), April 16 — Palace (H), April 19 — Villa (A), April 26 — Ipswich Town (H), May 3 — Brighton & Hove Albion (A), May 10 — Chelsea (H), May 18 — Arsenal (A), May 25 — Everton (H)
Chelsea
Current position: 4th
Predicted position: 6th
Chelsea are in danger of ending the season with a whimper.
As shown in the first table of this article, their 1.4 points per game is the worst rate among the top nine teams across the past 10 games, with their latest defeat, against Arsenal, arguably their most toothless performance of the season.
Chelsea fans have grown frustrated with Enzo Maresca’s approach but they are creating more chances and restricting their opponents, as shown in their rolling expected goals (xG) for and against compared with the previous two seasons.
The frustration is likely to come from how Maresca’s Chelsea can be slow and laboured. Looking at each team’s in-possession approach this season, Chelsea’s high-possession, less direct style is only outdone by Manchester City.
There is no right or wrong way to play football, but excitement has not been guaranteed at Stamford Bridge this season.
A tricky fixture list awaits, particularly in the final four games as Chelsea face Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest.
In December, Maresca angered fans when he said Chelsea were not in a title race — but he was proven correct. They are still firmly in a Champions League race, but the numbers suggest they might just fall short there too.
Remaining fixtures: April 3 — Tottenham Hotspur (H), April 6 — Brentford (A), April 13 — Ipswich (H), April 20 — Fulham (A), April 26 — Everton (H), May 3 — Liverpool (H), May 10 — Newcastle (A), May 18 — Man Utd (H), May 25 — Forest (A)
Chelsea surely need Cole Palmer back on form if they are to finish in the top five (Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)
Brighton
Current position: 7th
Predicted position: 7th
It is not surprising that Brighton are fighting for European qualification, which is a testament to the work done on the Sussex coast in recent seasons.
Players and managers have come and gone, but their upward trajectory has been remarkable. Reaching the Champions League would propel Brighton into uncharted territory after their Europa League adventure last season, but they remain firmly in the mix. Only one point separates them from fifth place.
Fabian Hurzeler is spoilt for choice in forward areas, with Joao Pedro, Georginio Rutter, Danny Welbeck, Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh all fighting for limited places. Rotation is required to keep his attacking talent happy, both within and between games.
No manager averages more than Hurzeler’s 4.8 substitutes per game — he is often unafraid to tweak at half-time — and Brighton are one of only two Premier League sides to name a different starting line-up in every game this season (Ipswich Town are the other).
Playing from back to front more directly has made Hurzeler’s side a little less predictable than under their previous boss, Roberto De Zerbi. It might come at the cost of less control, but pace and athleticism are embraced rather than stifled.
The numbers suggest that they might just miss out on a Champions League spot, but if ‘settling’ for the Europa League or Conference League is a disappointment that Brighton fans must face, it shows how far the club has come.
Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Villa (H), April 5 — Palace (A), April 12 — Leicester (H), April 19 — Brentford (A), April 26 — West Ham United (H), May 3 — Newcastle (H), May 10 — Wolves (A), May 18 — Liverpool (H), May 25 — Spurs (A)
Champions League football would be a leap into the unknown for Brighton (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
Aston Villa
Current position: 9th
Predicted position: 8th
While the ever-obsessive Unai Emery is rarely satisfied, a place in the quarter-finals of the Champions League and FA Cup must give him some comfort, especially as they are only three points off fifth.
Villa have been less convincing than last season as they balance domestic and European football, but they have regained their mojo since the turn of the year. The January arrivals of Marcus Rashford, Donyell Malen and Marco Asensio have certainly helped, with Emery now having the squad depth to rotate his players across competitions with little drop-off in quality.
Marco Asensio has won the Champions League three times – now he is trying to ensure Aston Villa are in it again next season (Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)
Rashford’s arrival has changed Villa’s in-possession shape slightly but they already tended to attack with greater verve on the left flank, often with Jacob Ramsey rolling inside while left-back Lucas Digne overlaps on the outside.
Nevertheless, Villa have good coverage across the pitch and like to penetrate through central channels, with only Chelsea (32 per cent) having a higher share of attacking touches in the middle attacking third this season.
Greater solidity in defence and an improved counter-attacking threat have seen Villa get back on track. Opta’s predictions suggest that a second consecutive campaign in the Champions League is unlikely, but let’s not forget that if they make it through to this season’s final in Munich on May 31, another win would give them a backdoor route.
Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Brighton (A), April 5 — Forest (H), April 12 — Southampton (A), April 19 — Newcastle (H), April 28 — Man City (A), May 3 — Fulham (H), May 10 — Bournemouth (A), May 18 — Spurs (H), May 25 — Man Utd (A)
Bournemouth
Current position: 10th
Predicted position: 9th
With just one win in their last six Premier League games, there has been a notable slide from Bournemouth in recent weeks. However, that should not detract from how Andoni Iraola has crafted one of the most energetic, stubborn sides to play against this season.
Iraola’s direct style is well-established by now, with only Everton having a higher share of passes played long than Bournemouth’s 15 per cent. It might appear scruffy to the untrained eye, but there is method to the madness as Iraola’s side intelligently position themselves to win second balls and hoover up any loose balls high up the pitch.
No team across Europe’s top four leagues have won possession in the attacking third more than Bournemouth’s 182 occasions. In an era defined by controlled possession and positional play, Iraola encourages chaos, disruption, and spontaneity.
“The game is for the players. Coaches are just the assistants. Coaches cannot pretend to control the game — luckily for the game,” Iraola told The Athletic in February. “But I try to encourage this creativity, try not to limit touches in training for example, try to encourage them to carry the ball, go one against one, take risks. It’s the easiest way to make a difference.”
The dream of a Champions League spot has faded after a four-game winless run in the league but Opta’s predicted ninth-placed finish would match a club record. Whatever the outcome, the plaudits that Iraola is receiving are richly deserved.
Remaining fixtures: April 2 — Ipswich (H), April 5 — West Ham (A), April 14 — Fulham (H), April 19 — Palace (A), April 27 — Man Utd (H), May 3 — Arsenal (A), May 10 — Villa (H), May 18 — Man City (A), May 25 — Leicester (H)
Fulham
Current position: 8th
Predicted position: 10th
Fulham are outsiders for a top-five spot, but the gap between them and Manchester City in fifth is just three points.
Marco Silva’s side have one of the best defensive records in the league. Only Arsenal and Liverpool are conceding fewer non-penalty xG than Fulham (1.1 per 90 minutes).
Going forward, Fulham’s key strength is undoubtedly their wide combinations, particularly down their left flank. Alex Iwobi, Emile Smith Rowe and the marauding Antonee Robinson have been linking up excellently, helping Fulham get into position to deliver back-post crosses, one of their key weapons. Only Manchester City and Liverpool have created more chances from back-post crosses.
If there has been any frustration, it has been Fulham’s failure to turn good performances into victories — they have taken the lead in 21 matches, but only gone on to win 12. In comparison, Bournemouth have also won 12 from four fewer games. Fulham have also failed to win three consecutive games all season, which helps explain why they have flown under the radar.
Fulham will have to leapfrog several teams to finish in the top five (Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)
Silva’s side require nine more points to beat their club-record 53 points achieved in the 2008-09 season, when they qualified for the Europa League. A tricky end to the season — with Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Villa still to play — means a top-five place will be a tough ask.
Remaining fixtures: April 1 — Arsenal (A), April 6 — Liverpool (H), April 14 — Bournemouth (A), April 20 — Chelsea (H), April 26 — Southampton (A), May 3 — Villa (A), May 10 — Everton (H), May 18 — Brentford (A), May 25 — Man City (H)
(Header photo: Valentin Flauraud/AFP via Getty Images)
