With the calendar about to flip over to April, we’re down to three weeks left in the regular season. And that means we don’t have many of these columns left. The finish line is in sight.
It’s safe to assume the last few weeks will be dedicated to breaking down the various playoff races, unless every bubble team in the East just voluntarily folds their franchise to avoid landing a spot it’s clear nobody wants. But in this semi-calm before the storm, a few of you have pointed out we’ve yet to visit an annual tradition around here: recognizing the teams that made it through the entire season without ever landing in either the top or bottom five.
This is the true middle of the pack, although as you’ll see, they come in some very different flavors. And this year, the numbers reinforce that in a pleasingly symmetrical way: 11 different teams showed up in the top five, and 11 more had at least one appearance in the bottom five. That leaves us with an even 10 teams that didn’t appear on either list all season long. Let’s divide them into categories.
Bonus Five: The teams that haven’t made the top or bottom five all year
5. The good teams that could still theoretically find the top five: It’s tough to crack either list for the first time this late in the season, but two teams have been good enough to be in top five consideration at a few points during the year and could theoretically still make it.
That would be the Lightning and the Maple Leafs, two teams battling with the Panthers for first in the Atlantic. The Panthers have been in the top five for much of the season despite having a similar record, which I think is fair given all their recent playoff success. But first place and a matchup with a wild-card is looming large, so if either the Leafs or Lightning got red-hot and ran away with the division down the stretch, they’d have a top-five case. For now, though, they’ve been just short.
4. The teams that weren’t close to the top five but are still happy with their season: I’ll put four teams in this category. The first is the Kings, a classic case of a team that’s been consistently good with occasional gusts up to great, but never all that close to top-five status. I’ll also include the Senators and Blues, two teams that have had their ups and downs but look like playoff teams down the stretch. And then there’s the Flames, a nice story that seems to be fading down the stretch. I’m not sure that finishing 10th in the West would feel like a major success, but this is a team a lot of us wrote off before the season even started, and they spent most of the year proving us wrong.
3. The true mushy middle teams: This would be the Islanders and Utah, two teams that spent the year plugging away, hanging right around the playoff mix without ever looking especially threatening. I’m not sure there was a single week all year in which either team even occurred to me as a legitimate contender for either list. They’re fine.
That leaves us with two teams, each of whom deserves its own category.
2. The disaster: That would be the Bruins. They started slow, fired the coach, never got more than a couple of games over fake .500, faded in the second half, sold at the deadline and are now cratering their way to a miserable finish. They’re actually closer to the bottom of the standings than I’d realized, so there’s a small but non-zero chance they could actually find the bottom five by the end of things. What a mess.
1. The mystery: That leaves us with the one team I still can’t figure out. Yes, it’s the Canucks, a team whose season has fallen well short of expectations but is still in the playoff hunt, if only barely, despite a firehose of drama, trading away one of their best players, key injuries and a coach who looks like he wants to strangle someone at all times. Every game these guys play is a roller coaster. I know they’re not among the five best or worst teams in the league, but that’s just about all I’ve been able to nail down.
On that note … Wow, this game:
The 2024-25 Vancouver Canucks: A lot of things, but definitely not boring.
A bonus note: We managed to avoid the dreaded “team that showed up on both lists” this year. Well done, everyone, we cleared the lowest possible bar there is. On to this week’s rankings …
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Nope, still doesn’t look right in that uniform.
No Panthers in the top five this time, as I stay clear of the Atlantic for the second straight week. We’ll figure this out eventually, but when you’ve got time, use it.
5. Carolina Hurricanes (45-24-4, +44 true goals differential*) — They look good, the Devils do not, and Thursday’s meeting with the Capitals feels a lot like a second-round preview.
Also: We have a trade to announce?
4. Vegas Golden Knights (45-20-8, +57) — Six straight wins, all in regulation and by a combined score of 28-11, suggests a team hitting its stride at exactly the right time. Home games against the Oilers tomorrow and Jets on Thursday will be great tests.
3. Washington Capitals (47-17-9, +72) — Three straight losses, including one to the first-in-conference Jets and another to the last-in-conference Sabres, isn’t enough to have us panicking. These are the long-term rankings, and Caps fans had to wait for us to get on board, so we’re not going to bail now after a bad week. But let’s get it back on track tomorrow in Boston, OK?
2. Dallas Stars (48-21-4, +63) — I’m nervous about the first-round matchup, I’m nervous about the Miro Heiskanen injury and I’m nervous about having two teams in the same division in the top spots. But they just keep winning, so …
1. Winnipeg Jets (51-19-4, +83) — This absolutely has to happen, and when it does it’s Murat’s fault:
Connor Hellebuyck’s shutout song is Gangnam Style. @WPGMurat asked Hellebuyck after the game about that choice…
«I do know the dance, so maybe one day I’ll do the dance out there.» 😅
🎥: #NHLJets pic.twitter.com/90bR9LldT0
— Connor Hrabchak (@ConnorHrabchak1) March 29, 2025
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Minnesota Wild — Wait, is this now the playoff spot that’s up for grabs in the West?
It sure looks like it. The Wild begin the week in the seventh spot, tied with the Blues at 87 points but with an edge in points percentage thanks to a game in hand. But the switch almost feels like a formality, with the Blues remaining red-hot while the Wild spin their wheels. Saturday’s loss to the Devils was their third in their last four, essentially undoing the gains from a three-game mini-streak the week before. Meanwhile, the Blues have won nine straight, wiping out Minnesota’s eight-point lead in just two weeks.
Getting passed for seventh place isn’t ideal, but it’s far from an emergency. It probably means playing the Jets instead of the Golden Knights in Round 1, and that’s not necessarily a huge jump in degree of difficulty. The bigger question is whether dropping to eighth could be the precursor to dropping even further. And that’s where things get scary for the Wild.
Scary, mind you, but not terrifying. They were still sitting at 90 percent odds in yesterday’s projections, and that will go up with the Canucks losing. They’re six points up on Vancouver with the same number of games played, and seven up on the Flames, who have two in hand. They’ll likely hold the regulation wins tiebreaker over the Blues, and would definitely hold it over the Canucks or Flames. They’re in good shape.
But good shape still feels scary when you were a lock not that long ago. It’s really only been in the last few days that the alarm bells have started ringing, but the slump has been longer than that. After finishing the first half at an impressive 26-11-4, the Wild have gone just 15-17-1 since then, a 77-point pace. Maybe the bigger question than whether they can make the playoffs is whether they should bother, since they don’t seem like much of a threat right now.
They’ve got a three-game road trip against the Devils, Rangers and Islanders this week before returning home to face the Stars and Sharks. Then comes the last road trip of the regular season, a two-game swing against the Flames and Canucks that could be crucial. Or it could be meaningless, if the Wild can bank enough points this week to put this thing away before scary turns into terrifying.
The bottom five
The five teams headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for a top pick that could be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer, or someone else.
Pierre had an update on coaching hot seats, which will be of interest to a few of the teams that regularly grace this section.
5. Buffalo Sabres (31-36-6, -24) — Sabres fans, how are we feeling about this recent warm streak with nothing left to play for? Good sign for the future, or infuriating draft pick sabotage? (For the record, there is a right answer here.)
If you missed it, be sure to check out Matthew’s deep dive into just how much misery a fan base can be expected to handle.
4. Philadelphia Flyers (30-36-9, -49) — They made the big headline this week, firing John Tortorella after a weird stretch that included two blowout losses, some strange postgame comments and an apparent altercation with Cam York. Kevin has been all over it, reporting on what exactly happened behind the scenes, just what the deal is with York and the contenders for the full-time job (including three big names currently employed elsewhere).
3. Nashville Predators (27-38-8, -51) — If you missed it, be sure to read Pierre’s chat with Barry Trotz on how they start to dig out of this mess.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (21-44-9, -69) — There’s nothing left to play for, but Hawks fans will get a look at 2023 first-rounder Oliver Moore as well as 2022 first Sam Rinzel down the stretch. Both have signed out of college and made their NHL debuts in yesterday’s loss to Utah.
1. San Jose Sharks (20-44-9, -90) — There hasn’t been much in the way of good news for the Sharks this year, but fans who could use some optimism and/or a reminder about the big picture will enjoy this podcast.
(Also, while interpreting The Code is always dicey, I’m pretty sure somebody needs to fight the Rangers’ team bus.)
Not ranked: Montreal Canadiens — The losing streak is over. Everybody breathe.
Less than two weeks ago, the Habs were the hottest team in the league, winning eight of 11 immediately after the 4 Nations break. That stretch allowed them to push past the stagnant Eastern bubble field, looking a lot like the only team that actually wanted to be the conference’s eight-seed. After beating the Senators on March 18, the Habs were alone in the final wild-card spot and even seemed to have a potential path to catch Ottawa. But they followed that game by losing five straight while giving up 25 goals, including a high-profile matchup with the Blues earlier in the week that saw them get stomped. They were blowing it.
That’s the bad news, and well, it’s pretty bad. But step back, and the picture gets brighter. They might be blowing it, yes, but let’s remember that the “it” here is a playoff spot nobody really thought they had a shot at this year. The realistic goal heading into the season was to play meaningful games (with apologies to Tortorella) and stay close enough to the race that they could shock the world. Now it feels like a failure that they haven’t been able to lock up a spot with 10 games still left to play. It’s easy to forget how much the expectations have shifted in a relatively short amount of time.
Still, beating a good Panthers team on the road was exactly the sort of win this team needed, especially with a rematch coming tomorrow in Montreal. And it was another reminder that writing this team off has been a bad move pretty much all year long.
Will any of that matter if this team ends up coughing up a playoff spot that was there for the taking? I think it should. That doesn’t mean it won’t sting, because of course it would. But if the season was about progress, it’s already been an inarguable success, one that’s seen the Habs drive past teams like the Sabres and Red Wings who were supposed to be years ahead of them. What more could a reasonable fan want?
A playoff spot, sure. You can’t get this close without locking in on the prize. And that’s where the other half of the good news kicks in: They’re still in this thing. They get the Panthers again tomorrow, which is tough, but the rest of the season-ending schedule is reasonably friendly. The Bruins, Flyers and Predators are up next, three teams that are all but flatlining down the stretch. From there it’s Detroit, Ottawa and a Saturday night showdown with the Leafs, followed by the lowly Hawks and then a playoff-bound Hurricanes team with nothing to play for.
The path is there. None of those games are guaranteed, but they’re winnable. And at the very least, they’re damn sure meaningful.
(Photo of Marcus Foligno and Arber Xhekaj: Matt Blewett / Imagn Images)
